Opening post.
Next Manitoba Premier
Sat, 2009-08-29 16:04
#1
Next Manitoba Premier
Sat, 2009-08-29 16:07
#2
Greg Selinger.
Sat, 2009-08-29 16:09
#3
Fred Tait
Sat, 2009-08-29 16:38
#4
Fred Tait
Fred Tait. . . accuses his former party, the NDP, of failing to restore the province’s Conservation and Environment departments — "devastated" by the PCs in the 90s — to where they would have "any possible capacity of doing any good here."
(He was NDP candidate in Gladstone in 1986 and 1988, and is now National Farmers' Union VP.)
Sat, 2009-08-29 16:40
#5
In this thread the following were named:
Bill Blaikie.
Finance Minister Greg Sellinger, whom the Globe thinks is "The early front-runner."
Health Minister Theresa Oswald
Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Steve Ashton
Minister of Labour and Immigration Nancy Allan
Minister of Competitiveness, Training and Trade Andrew Swan
New MLA Jennifer Howard
MP Pat Martin
MP Judy Wasylycia-Leis, but she has ruled herself out.
Others: this piece names Family Services Minister Gord Mackintosh and defeated candidate for Winnipeg Mayor Dan Vandal.
The Globe lists Justice minister Dave Chomiak and Conservation Minister Stan Struthers.
The Sun lists Minister of Healthy Living Kerri Irvin-Ross, and even MLA Bidhu Jha.
Minister of Water Stewardship Christine Melnick also said she will not run.
The Globe says
If the party opts for generational change, the leading choices would be health minister Theresa Oswald, a former teacher, and training and trade minister Andrew Swan, a lawyer.Federal MP Pat Martin said more than one labour union Friday asked if he would run. He said he's not ruling anything out at this point, and will consider his options over the weekend. “I haven't said no to anybody yet,” Mr. Martin said. “But I love being an MP, and I'd have to think long and hard before abandoning that.”
Intergovernmental affairs minister Steve Ashton has always had leadership ambitions and is likely to run. Other possibilities include family services minister Gord Mackintosh, justice minister Dave Chomiak and conservation minister Stan Struthers. .
Sat, 2009-08-29 16:42
#6
Fred Tait is being unfair to the NDP. Surely he must understand that in the current NAFTA conditions, it would be unlawful for an NDP government to be proactive on conservation or environmental issues.
Sat, 2009-08-29 16:47
#7
Of all the names being bandied about, all I see is that after two decades in power, Doer has really molded the party in his own image so effectively that I don't see any anti-Doer waiting in the wings. They all seem to be variations on Doer loyalists, so I suspect it will wind up being style over substance - older male Doerites (Selinger, Blaikie) vs young male Doerite (Swan) vs older female Doerite (Allan) vs young female Doerite (Oswald) vs crazy person (Pat Martin). But, it's not like NDP MLAs have any tendencies to publicly contradict the party's decisions ("caucus solidarity"), so it is hard to tell for sure where everyone is at politically.
The only person I would consider to be even mildly progressive whose names is being put forward so far is Steve Ashton, also the only person in the legislature who has outlasted Doer. Beyond that, there is Judy W-L, who said she isn't running (and her Zionism would hopefully be less relevant in provincial politics), and Marianne Cerilli, who I think would be excellent but I doubt would run or have much of a chance. It will be interesting to see if there is an insurgent leftie candidate and how well she might do - where's a populist crank like Peter Kormos when you need him?
I suspect if Bill Blaikie runs, Blaikie-mania will carry the day at the convention. If not, it's wide open to a few
I think in terms of policy, the big question is not "who wins" because I don't see any significant change in direction depending on the result, but how can people's organizations like the MFL, Winnipeg Labour Council, Make Poverty History affiliates, the Canadian Federation of Students, National Farmers Union, etc manipulate this in order to get a little piece of what they want (anti-scab, tuition freeze, hog issues, etc) and how successful can they be.
Sat, 2009-08-29 16:48
#8
Fred Tait is being unfair to the NDP. Surely he must understand that in the current NAFTA conditions, it would be unlawful for an NDP government to be proactive on conservation or environmental issues.
Using someone's name like this you do not know is low even for you.
Sat, 2009-08-29 16:49
#9
It is not his former party. And Tait is 100% right on this issue. I have yet to see anyone claim the Doer government was perfect. Also Tait is no longer the NFU VP (and hasn't been for a few years), but rather the Manitoba Coordinator.
Sat, 2009-08-29 17:11
#10
and Marianne Cerilli, who I think would be excellent but I doubt would run or have much of a chance. It will be interesting to see if there is an insurgent leftie candidate and how well she might do
Oh man, I want to see Marianne run so badly... especially if she can win. And if everything in this far-right blog is true, I want her to win even more: http://blackrod.blogspot.com/2006/09/man-bashing-cerilli-sets-her-sights...
I voted for her for mayor, and I would be happy to vote for her as premier.
Sat, 2009-08-29 17:22
#11
N.Beltov
B A, if I'm not mistaken then Unionist is simply mocking a point of view that was defending in the threads on the Manitoba Premier stepping down. Some babblers tried to justify policy under Premier Doer by making reference to NAFTA constraints. unionist wasn't having any of it.
Sat, 2009-08-29 17:30
#12
A spokesman for Health Minister Theresa Oswald said "she will be discussing her future with her family." She was first elected in 2003 (age not disclosed.) Before launching her political career, Theresa spent eleven years teaching English at Glenlawn Collegiate. Theresa also served as a vice-principal at an exceptional needs school in the Louis Riel School Division. There she had first-hand experience in dealing with children and parents who had significant issues with poverty and unemployment, immigration, illiteracy, and anxieties associated with fleeing war-torn countries. The Draft Oswald site looks interesting.
None of the most likely suspects -- Health Minister Theresa Oswald, Competitiveness and Training Minister Andrew Swan and veteran MP turned MLA Bill Blaikie -- have wandered anywhere near a notepad or microphone in the last 48 hours. If Blaikie sits this one out, then Manitoba's NDP will in all likelihood be led by a politician who is in his or her 40s, one entire generation younger than Doer.
The Tories would prefer a Theresa Oswald to a Gord Mackintosh or a Greg Selinger.
Judy Wasylycia-Leis said that Bill Blaikie, a former colleague of hers in Ottawa, likely isn't a serious candidate.
"I really don't want to speculate about the leadership," said Labour and Immigration Minister Nancy Allan, thought by some to be interested in Doer's old job. Aged 57, she was first elected in 1999. Prior to being elected, she managed Nancy Allan Associates, which provided fund development and strategic planning services to small business and non-profit organizations.
Jennifer Howard: “When I was a young child – I was born with a disability. I have a leg that’s a little shorter than the other, less fingers than probably most of you, and one day I was getting special shoes fitted–I wear a lift to help me walk evenly–in the process of getting the shoes fitted, it occurred to me that these things cost money. So I asked my mother, you know, how do we pay for this, because I also knew early on that money was not something that was in plentiful supply at my house. My mother, at that point, told me not to worry about it because we lived in a province where people cared about each other, where the government, the NDP government, had made sure that my shoes were paid for by everybody in the province, not just my family. That made a deep impression on me as a child about the power of government to do good in people’s lives, to change people’s lives.”
Sat, 2009-08-29 17:37
#13
B A, if I'm not mistaken then Unionist is simply mocking a point of view that was defending in the threads on the Manitoba Premier stepping down. Some babblers tried to justify policy under Premier Doer by making reference to NAFTA constraints. unionist wasn't having any of it.
Using someones name, that he did not bother to even find out anything about, in the fashion he did is still totatlly inappropriate, but I guess it doesn't matter as long as it is used to try to define the NDP in a negative way is that it?
And it was done in that way specifically because I posted the name and it was pure and simple baiting, of course though it will be allowed.
Fred Tait is winding down his career, but he has been a tireless advocate for sane environmental, agricultural and social justice causes. He is someone to whom respect is deserved. Treating him as a cheap ass parlour trick is tremendously offesnive. Of couse that is all that can be expected of that poster.
Sat, 2009-08-29 17:39
#14
I like Jennifer Howard too, and Marianne Cerrili.
I caught only part of a discussion on the CBC radio this morning but it was someone from the NDP suggesting that they have some political capital to spend and they were hoping to see that happen.
Sat, 2009-08-29 17:57
#15
B A, if I'm not mistaken then Unionist is simply mocking a point of view that was defending in the threads on the Manitoba Premier stepping down. Some babblers tried to justify policy under Premier Doer by making reference to NAFTA constraints. unionist wasn't having any of it.
Quite correct, N.Beltov, but why do you open with an expletive?
Sat, 2009-08-29 18:06
#16
B A, if I'm not mistaken then Unionist is simply mocking a point of view that was defending in the threads on the Manitoba Premier stepping down. Some babblers tried to justify policy under Premier Doer by making reference to NAFTA constraints. unionist wasn't having any of it.
Quite correct, N.Beltov, but why do you open with an expletive?
I guess you have learned by never having been dealt with that by moderators that you can say anything you want about anyone whether they are on babble, or the way you abused the name of someone who has actually put himself on the line time and time again. What a piece of work you are.
Sat, 2009-08-29 18:08
#17
How noble in reason.
Sat, 2009-08-29 18:19
#18
Feel like apologizing for the way you used a good person to score some cheap, petty whatever the hell it is you do?
Sat, 2009-08-29 18:21
#19
Actually I have no doubt that Unionist was trying to be funny, not attacking Fred Tait whatever.
As to Fred Tait's "former party, the NDP," I was merely quoting the article I linked to.
Sat, 2009-08-29 18:23
#20
Actually I have no doubt that Unionist was trying to be funny, not attacking Fred Tait whatever.
Wilf, the best way to deal with disruption is to ignore it.
You haven't given us your personal prediction yet... any thoughts as to front-runners or those you'd like to see as such?
Sat, 2009-08-29 18:34
#21
Actually I have no doubt that Unionist was trying to be funny, not attacking Fred Tait whatever.
As to Fred Tait's "former party, the NDP," I was merely quoting the article I linked to.
Explain then why he used no other name, other than for baiting, then the one name I posted in good faith. It is amazing how he sees posts he is supposedly ignoring and then using them to bait someone.
Of course there will be no consequences for the passive aggressive behaviour because there never is. Which is why babble is devolving
Sat, 2009-08-29 19:03
#22
remind
BA, has a very valid point.
Sat, 2009-08-29 22:25
#23
Entirely personal musings:
I can't see Selinger filling those boots. He's like the Paul Martin of the MB NDP. Competent maybe; no charisma.
I like Ashton too, but I don't think he's leadership material. Nor do I think Blaikie is.
Too bad about Judy W-L.
Oswald is probably the popular choice. She has her politician-speak down to a fine art. She could adequately fill the role, but again, may be lacking in charisma.
Howard is probably too principled to connect with the centrist voters who put the party in power.
I too like the idea of Jha or someone from the immigrant community, but he's still a newcomer.
Swan is too young and a little impatient, I think. Got a bit of a sharp tongue.
I think Doer is going to be leaving a hole, unfortunately. It's like the Liberals after Trudeau. They never really recovered. Chretien, a kind of extension of Trudeau, propped them up for a while, but it was over after that.
PS: hadn't really thought of Allan, but she does have a somewhat caustic humorous edge to her, which I always appreciate when belittling the opposition. That was something Doer was good at.
Sat, 2009-08-29 22:40
#24
Who would be the best replacement for Gary Doer?
Greg Selinger 25%
Bill Blaikie 24%
Andrew Swan 17%
Theresa Oswald 14%
Someone else 17%
Total Votes: 3843
I have no favourite. Niki's not ready.
Sat, 2009-08-29 22:41
#25
(double post)
Sat, 2009-08-29 22:46
#26
I too like the idea of Jha or someone from the immigrant community, but he's still a newcomer.
I live in Jha's riding. Cerilli was in my opinion the better MLA, although Jha does get props for doing a bit of standing up on Oly West
Howard is probably too principled to connect with the centrist voters who put the party in power.
too principled: Only in the NDP...
PS: hadn't really thought of Allan, but she does have a somewhat caustic humorous edge to her, which I always appreciate when belittling the opposition. That was something Doer was good at.
Allan will always be Minister of Not Having Anti-Scab Legislation to me.
Sat, 2009-08-29 23:05
#27
Does Greg Selinger even have a personality? Finance ministers do not powerful leaders make.
And that was probably all Conservatives voting.
Sat, 2009-08-29 23:16
#28
Would Blaikie even be seen as a serious candidate? He has been in federal politics for the past 30 years and he has never run anything. When you have half a dozen people with proven ministerial experience to choose from, why would you even think of choosing someone with none?
Sat, 2009-08-29 23:31
#29
Blaikie is easily the biggest name being mentioned so far, and you have to admit, the timing of his trading seats with Maloway does invite suspicion, and it's not hard to get mental images of the proverbial smoke-filled room when thinking about it.
Sun, 2009-08-30 00:05
#30
I still come back to my point of why would you entrust the premiership to someone with absolutely no executive experience of any kind. Blaikie has been a great MP, but all we really know that he brings to the table is an ability to holler. If this was a province where the NDP had never been in power or hadn't been in many many years - that would be OK, but not in Manitoba where there are all these people who have run departments and proven themselves (or not). Blaikie was elected in a byelection six months ago. If he had even been appointe dto cabinet right away and had some chance to show that he could administer that would be one - but he wasn't. This isn't about picking someone who is a good campaigner. This is about picking someone who can hit the ground running as Premier within a matter of weeks and run the province for the next two years before there is an election. If I were an NDP member in Manitoba, why would I take a chance on Blaikie when I have all these talented people with real, live cabinet experience to choose from?
Sun, 2009-08-30 00:29
#31
Greg Selinger.
Let's hope not. As Finance Minister he played a key role in shaping the current economic policies of Todays NDP(TM).
Sun, 2009-08-30 00:47
#32
That's why I thought Doer's natural constituency would demand Selinger as the successor. Kinda like Paul Martin.
Sun, 2009-08-30 02:28
#33
Can anyone say anything about Stan Struthers?
Stan Struthers was born in Swan River in 1959. Struther's father worked for the CNR, so he grew up in several rural towns in Manitoba and Saskatchewan.After graduating from Swan Valley Regional Secondary School in 1977, Struthers received his bachelor of arts and bachelor of education degrees from Brandon University and his master of education degree from the University of Manitoba.
A teaching career that began at Norway House Reserve led to a two-year term as principal of Rorketon Collegiate, then to his more recent position at the Winnipegosis High School.
Struthers and his wife Michelle currently reside in Dauphin.
Sun, 2009-08-30 11:14
#34
"Can anyone say anything about Stan Struthers?"
Yes, whenever I see the name, the first thing that pops into my mind is Sally Struthers as Gloria on All in the Family!
Sun, 2009-08-30 20:35
#35
Cameron Holmstrom, the Northwestern Lad, astutely notes that
the big factor in my opinion will be “When is the Leadership Convention going to take place?”. If you’re looking at a date that’s further out, say November or December, a lesser known candidate might be more willing to step in, just to give him or herself a chance to build their name. If we’re looking at a date that’s sooner, like the late September or October quoted in the Globe piece, I think you’d be less likely to see as big a field of candidates, and I’d also think that those who ran could be relative front-runners.
The CBC says "Manitoba's New Democrats are meeting Monday to plan for a leadership convention to replace outgoing Premier Gary Doer." So we'll soon see.
Mon, 2009-08-31 03:04
#36
Selinger's name has been bandied about as a possible successor ever since he was recruited to run as a Canadidate in St Boniface. Selinger had brownie points then for being a protector of French Canadian culture. His wife Claudette Toupin is a good campaigner.
Theresa Oswald was my son's former English teacher - his hobby as a kid was playing intellectual mind games on adults and he seemed to have a lot of respect for her.
Bill Blaikie has a lot of integrity and experience and presence. You have to ask, though who out of him and Steve Ashton will end up being the prouder father.
The talk in North Dakota is that they hope to get the Garrison project going before the new Manitoba Premier gets his or her footing. That is probably one reason that Melnick is not running is because that is her job now - protecting the Red.
Mon, 2009-08-31 22:45
#37
The Manitoba NDP executive wrapped up a nearly two and a half hour meeting Monday and set October 17th, 2009 as the date for a Leadership Convention. It's possible satellite locations will be set up in rural and northern Manitoba, the media release stated.
A spokesman for Labour Minister Nancy Allan told the Winnipeg Sun she won’t be running for the NDP leadership.
The NDP uses a delegate system, in which the number of delegates a constituency sends depends on its members in good standing 30 days before the convention. If the convention is held in mid-October that leaves only a two-week window for new members to get in on the action.
Tue, 2009-09-01 11:40
#38
N.Beltov
This quote really belongs in the "Doer Steps Down" thread but that has been closed for length. Nick Ternette, peacenik and legendary activist, has been in hospital recovering from very serious surgery. He appreciates visitors. Anyway, this is what I culled from Nick's latest ...
On another, more political note: What do you think of Gary Doer's resignation and his acceptance of the Canadian Ambassadorship to the United States? My suspicion is that he was well aware of the ambassador appointment before he resigned. No question, I think he'll do an excellent job representing Canada.
Tue, 2009-09-01 20:05
#39
Tue, 2009-09-01 21:02
#40
"All but handed the keys to the Premier's office to Hugh McFadyen". Wishful thinking, methinks.
There's no doubt that Doer's departure can only help McFadyen, if only because it turns a near slam-dunk NDP re-election into an actual race. But the absence of Doer doesn't address the underlying problems of Tory incompetence and ineffectiveness. McFadyen seems reasonably on the ball, but he's surrounded himself with assorted deadwood and lightweights in his caucus and one of the weakest backroom operations in memory.
The Tories will not inspire a lot of people to vote for them, people will have to be motivated to get out and vote against the NDP. Of course a lot can happen between now and 2011, but reading the tea leaves right now, I just do not see where they swing the ten seats they need to win, particularly when they are also defending some really narrow majorities from 2007.
Tue, 2009-09-01 21:21
#41
Tue, 2009-09-01 21:37
#42
Nobody has formally announced yet, although when asked by the media if he was thinking of throwing his hat in the ring Greg Selinger replied "I certainly am." Steve Ashton and Gord Mackintosh have also confirmed that they are considering bids.
Blaikie's announcement, plus the fact that the electorate will consist almost exclusively of current party members (and labour delegates) likely makes Greg Selinger the early favourite, should he decide to get in. However, Blaikie's decision to forego the race probably opens up room for some lower-profile candidates. Unlike the 1988 convention, which was basically a two-horse race with an oddball assortment of also-rans, this convention could feature a really crowded field.
ETA: thanks, Wilf, for posting that link to the scorecard. Very handy resource indeed! :)
Tue, 2009-09-01 21:38
#43
Greg Selinger.
Or: Sid Green.
Tue, 2009-09-01 21:44
#44
Sid Green kind of went off the deep end in the late 1970s and claimed the NDP had been overrun by trade unionists and "militant feminists". His 'Progressive Party' was a curious amalgam of left-wing economics and right-wing social policies (he was a staunch opponent of bilingualism and most human rights legislation). I believe, but stand to be corrected, that the 'Progressives' were quite anti-union as well.
Tue, 2009-09-01 21:59
#45
You're quite correct, and I was making a little joke. Although a lot of us very young folk supported him against Ed Schreyer in the 1969 leadership race... before he changed his colours...
Tue, 2009-09-01 22:06
#46
Quite the smoke-filled room, that.
Tue, 2009-09-01 22:30
#47
You're quite correct, and I was making a little joke. Although a lot of us very young folk supported him against Ed Schreyer in the 1969 leadership race... before he changed his colours...
I kinda figured that your tongue was planted firmly in your cheek when you floated his name. ;)
That being said, I'm not sure that it was such a complete volte-face for Green. In reading about the party and talking to some people who were around at that time, there seems to have been a bit of a social conservative/'old boys club' streak to the Schreyer government. For example, not one woman was elected under the NDP banner prior to 1981. (To be fair, prior to the 1980s there were only a small handful of female MLAs of any party.) When he bolted the party, Green was joined by a couple of other former cabinet ministers so there was obviously some support for his views. Joe Borowski and Larry Desjardins were vehemently anti-abortion (of course, Borowski was anti- a lot of things). Former cabinet minister Russ Doern was vocally anti-bilingualism and waged a sexist and homophobic campaign against Herizons magazine in the early 80s. And of course Ed Schreyer himself had some not-too-nice things to say about homosexuality in the not-so-distant past.
Tying this back to the current leadership race, the media is already talking about the perceived need for 'generational change' in the leadership but I'm not so sure that 'generational change' and a change in direction go hand-in-hand. The transition from Schreyer to Pawley is a perfect example. Two men of the same 'generation', but when Pawley took over there was a real shift in the party, with some previously marginalized groups gaining more influence. This in turn seems to have prompted something of a backlash from the Schreyer 'old guard' (people like Green, Doern, Herb Schulz, Sam Uskiw and - unfortunately for the fate of the government - Jim Walding). All of which is by way of saying that picking someone like Swan or Oswald won't necessarily mean a real shift in direction for the party.
Tue, 2009-09-01 22:44
#48
Sid Green is still left of the NDP on at least one issue
How about Wilbert Doneleyko?
Tue, 2009-09-01 22:52
#49
Great, genstrike, thanks for both of those links! Sid must be in his 80s? And I never heard of Doneleyko.
Tue, 2009-09-01 23:31
#50
Sid must be in his 80s?
Wed, 2009-09-02 13:28
#51
Oswald and Mackintosh are out. Swan expected to launch his campaign this afternoon.
Mackintosh has already confirmed that he is leaning towards backing Swan. Oswald will announce who she's supporting later today and since Swan is the only one expected to declare today, I would imagine she will be endorsing him as well. With Oswald bowing out, it's looking more and more unlikely that there will be a female candidate in this race. In fact, it's looking like the field might be much less crowded than I originally thought. Oswald's departure should give a boost to Swan's candidacy, since it probably leaves him as the only viable candidate who can play the 'generational change' card.
ETA: The Manitoba NDP finally has a new website up. A good thing too, because the old one was an embarrassment. One wonders if the increased attention from the leadership race prompted them to roll it out, but normally these kinds of things take some time to develop (interesting how it just happened to be ready in time for Doer to step down...)