Next Manitoba Premier - Part 2

"This is where we differ.  I don't give a fuck which party is in power, as long as I get good policies."

That's all very well, but do you want to pick a Premier of a leader of a decimated opposition. You won't get much in the way of good policies from a Tory provincial government that will roll back EVERYTHING the NDP has done within a month of being in power. By all accounts the Manitoba PCs are on their hands and knews praying that the NDP will pick Ashton since they are certain that he can't win an election.

If I wanted to get a party from 10% of the vote to 15% maybe I'd go for Ashton. But if i want to retain 45% and win all those swing seats in Winnipeg, then I want someone who seems cool and who has had some major portfolios in government and who has a moderate "style" while in reality being just as progressive as anyone else. It doesn't seem like ideology is what's determining who supports who. There are people from across the ideological spectrum backing both candidates, its seems to be mainly a few backbenchers in caucus back Ashton (they may be outsiders for very good reasons such as lack of talent). Isn't Ashton's campaign being managed by some city councillor who backed the rightwing crackpot Sam Katz for mayor?

I don't know who has necessarily signed up more or less members given that when all is said and done its likely that Selinger will win at least a slim majority of the delegates elected in each riding. Ashton may have exceeded expectations, but he's still behind.

any examples of who would have been worse?

There is a fixed election dates bill in Manitoba that sets the next election in the Fall of 2011, I don't see any reason to break that law.

Critiques of prairie NDP governments are a little more sophisticated than in Tommy Douglas' day. They know by now that trying to smear the NDP with names like Bolsheviks, reds and commies won't cut it with educated people today. Apparently theyre reduced to likening Canada's provincial premiers to Gordon Brown, a cosmetic leader in Britain. That's sure to strike fear into the hearts of voters everywhere.

What's with all these blank posts?

Apparently the last of the DSMs were held today and it was about an even split with Ashton winning in Fort Whyte and Interlake and Selinger winning all the others around Brandon. That means Selinger goes forward with about 130 delegates ahead and that's not counting all the Swan delegates who can be expected to heavily favour Selinger. The only path to victory i can see for Ashton would be to somehow almost sweep all the "super-delegates" which is highly, highly unlikely.

Stockholm:  Consider this --

The Manitoba NDP is coming off of 20 years of leadership under Gary Doer.  Doer got into the party leadership on the strength of his lefty union cred.  He took a different path once he got a firm hold of the reins.   As leader, Doer shaped the party in countless ways.  Among other things, he helped to select the folks that would run and succeed as Ministers under him.  Party memberships gradually dwindled.  He also pushed for the current delegate-selection process.  Despite the recent crowing about Doer's popularity and success, polls have thus far indicated that the Manitoba NDP are in a fine position without him.

Doer and Ashton were never best buddies.  It didn't help that Ashton was intelligent, head-shakingly popular with his constituents despite his quirks, and had been around longer than anyone, Doer included.  Doer gave him a sucession of ministerial portfolios which appeared tailor chosen to put him into a difficult spot.  Ask around -- Ashton prevailed in each case.  Everyone he actually worked with speaks about him in glowing terms. 

He undoubtedly ruffled some feathers in helping his daughter turf former MP Bev Desjarlais, but good riddance to bad rubbish, y'know?

There's two Ashtons out there in the media spotlight. The short-term Ashton -- He's playing the table-thumper right now for sure, but that's what he needs to do to get rank-and-file members riled and excited enough to show up and vote for the underdog/outsider. The long-term Ashton does not have a history of being strident, abrasive or polarizing. His colleagues are where they are because of who put them there, and they want to back the winner, which prevailing wisdom says is Selinger. You'll note that the MLAs who weren't on Doer's Christmas list are supporting Ashton.

He's running for NDP party leader right now.  What should he do to have the best shot building on his personal popularity, his historical support in the Indo-Canadian, Filipino, Greek, Northern and labour constituencies?  He needs to play himself up as a clear and distinct choice vs. Doer II over there (Selinger). 

Honestly, you'd be foolish to expect an Ashton-led NDP provincial election to look like an Ashton-led NDP leadership race.  It has never happened that way in the past, and it won't now.  He is probably the most progressive choice, and long-term I'd give him a slight edge over Selinger on electability.  Check out Selinger's campaign videos on youtube -- his tone is cerebral, dense and hypnotic.  Like Ignatieff on downers.

And speaking of Liberals, remember Paul Martin -- how well does the credibility gained from being a good finance minister last?

Tractor wrote:

As leader, Doer shaped the party in countless ways.  Among other things, he helped to select the folks that would run and succeed as Ministers under him.

I will go even further and suggest that Doer went very far to seek out "yes men and women," to the point that the focus was on Doer and the local candidate was just there to hold the seat for him. That was reflected in several ads in the last campaign, ads that would extoll Doer's greatness and conclude by saying, "in (insert constituency name) vote (insert candidate name), NDP." I think your assessment about members of Caucus wanting to pick winners is correct, and I've stated earlier how I felt that the Caucus lining up behind Swan and Sellinger, plus the fact that several  high-profile Cabinet ministers initially turned down the idea of running for leader exposed how weak the Caucus is. One glaring example of that weakness with which I am familiar is how Diane McGifford as Minister for Advanced Education accomplished nothing except to frustrate student groups and rationalise the government going back on a promise to keep tuitions frozen post-2007, not to mention her lack of leadership on ancilliary fees and holding the university institutions accountable.

ETA: I also think your assessment of "short-term" and "long-term" Ashton are correct, and that the "long term" is more important. Some politicians are a bit clumsy in the media but people know and respect them because they have such a deep history with the community. Other politicians are great in front of the media but inspire cynicism because "we only hear from them during an election."

I actually agree with you about "Doer II," Stockholm -- it's an exagerration, at least.  I believe Selinger is his own man.  Long term, I expect him to be more progressive than Doer.  A little, anyway.

Really, though, this is Selinger's choice.  On the campaign (i.e., the short-term Selinger, if you will) he is drawing on the credibility gained from his record as Finance Minister for the full ten years of the Doer government, and touting the support of the Doer caucus.  That's fine for the "electability" argument, but if he wants to draw some distinctions between him and Doer, he better get on it!  Until he does, I would expect Ashton, if he's a smart campaigner, to carve out his territory among the more progressive folks who have been itching for Doer to leave, leaving Selinger to play Mr. More-of-the-same.

As for the Paul Martin comparison, I think that's just a warning that a finance minister under a popular leader can't rely too much on his record.  It gives the public the immediate sense of competence, perhaps, but it does little to build the sense that you can set direction and lead on principle.

Ashton's strategy may not be enough.  I expect him to draw a strong youth vote.  However much they might like his positions, the union vote may see Selinger as the best choice to keep the NDP in power, though.  I figured Ashton was a real contender right from the start -- and Ashton will come close -- but I still gotta give the edge to Selinger. 

Ashton was Minister of Intergovernmental Affairs. The only other party leader who was previously minister of intergovernmental affairs that i can think of is Stephane Dion. So there you have it - anytime a party picks a new leader who was once MIA minister - they will lose for sure!!

Here is latest from never eat yellow snow:

"elinger took Russell and most of the delegates in the Lac du Bonnet riding yesterday. This wraps up the constituency voting part of the process.

This leaves 752 votes up for grab with 108 going tonight. Because MYND is not voting as a block but based on proportional representation it is not winner take all tonight. Because of this, we are likely going to see both Selinger and Ashton pick up a fair chunk of support.

-108 at MYND (on Tuesday)

-430 at Labour

-214 super delegates

What we can conclude based on the riding vote:

Selinger won a large majority of the ridings and got support in all regions of the province (except maybe the north). He has a lead of over 150 delegates. He was able to translate MLA support into delegate support with the exception of The Maples.

Swan won a few South Winnipeg ridings. Most of his support is expected to go to Selinger. Swan was able to translate MLA support into delegate support in about half of the ridings.

Ashton won fewer ridings but got support in the three largest ones (The Maples, The Pas and Thompson). His support was concentrated in the North, North East Winnipeg, South West Winnipeg and areas with large ethnic communities. Like Selinger, he was also able to translate MLA support into delegate support"

I was joking.

YOur last point is a bit misleading. Since about 80% of caucus backed Selinger its not as if there were all that many ridings where the MLA backed Ashton in the first place where Selinger could have won. If every riding voted for who their MLA backed then Selinger would already have won about 80% of the delegates! The MLAs who backed Ashton were alsmost all from the north where it was clear he was going to sweep anyways. Did anyone think Selinger was going to win the DSM in Flin Flon?

My only point about Selinger being Finance minister is that it shows FWIW that he's experienced in running a MAJOR portfolio. I;d say the same thing if he had been Minister of Health. (BTW: Chretien was also a one time Finance Minister).

In provincial politics in Canada, being "sleep inducing" is not a bad thing from an electoral perspective. Look at Bill Davis, McGuinty, Blakeney, Pawley, Calvert and many others. In most of Canada "bland works"

Ashton looks very white, very male, very middle aged and very middle class well.

What time is the vote today? When do we expect the results to be announced? I'm assuming Selinger is favoured to win, though Ashton has made it closer than expected.

2003 votes cast, 1 spoiled, 2002 valid votes cast, 1002 needed to win.

Selinger 1,317

Ashton 685

Greg Selinger will be sworn in as Manitoba's 22nd Premier on Monday when Gary Doer formally resigns to take up his post as Ambassador to the United States.

._.

Thanks ghoris

Let's get on with taking the province back now before Wall does too much more damage. 

ghoris wrote:

2003 votes cast, 1 spoiled, 2002 valid votes cast, 1002 needed to win.

Selinger 1,317

Ashton 685

[url=http://rabble.ca/babble/prairies/next-manitoba-premier#comment-1054585][... ya so.[/color][/url]

N.Beltov wrote:

Perhaps so. Where does it show that Selinger supports a tuition freeze and anti-scab legislation? I'm pretty sure Ashton supported those items, perhaps some others, but I can't seem to find where Selinger agrees.

But when someone (i.e. Ashton) spends their entire political career never particularly identifying with "the left" in the party and then all of a sudden they come up with these policies two weeks before the leadership vote people wonder if there is a sincere philosophical difference between him and Selinger. My understanding is that Ashton was never seen as being a leftwing force in cabinet - he was just a bit of a loner who didn't get along very well with his colleagues.

I'm aware of that - but my point is that Ashton's sudden reinvention of himself as a leftwing firebrand after a long career of being a total go-with-the-flow centrist with not very good interpersonal skills seemed a bit "Saul on the road to Damascus"-like and it may not have seemed sincere.

MOst tallies had Ashton and Selinger quite close when it came to the constituency delegates but in the end Selinger blew him out of the water and the only explanation for that would be Selinger getting masive support from the labour and ex-officio delegates. You would think that labour delegates might have rallied to the candidate promising to bring in anti-scab legislation - yet they gave him a big thumbs down. Maybe this is an issue that most union people simply don't feel all that strongly about. Or maybe they saw it as a cynical attempt to pander to them. Who knows?

Stockholm wrote:

You would think that labour delegates might have rallied to the candidate promising to bring in anti-scab legislation

You'd think so. Unfortunately the powers-that-be in the labour movement in Manitoba believe that if we keep an NDP government in power, everything would be fine. They don't actively mobilise their members, and they are much easier when the NDP fails them than when the Conservatives do.

genstrike wrote:

Stockholm wrote:

You would think that labour delegates might have rallied to the candidate promising to bring in anti-scab legislation - yet they gave him a big thumbs down. Maybe this is an issue that most union people simply don't feel all that strongly about. Or maybe they saw it as a cynical attempt to pander to them. Who knows?

I think a better explanation is that the MFL brass are a bunch of fucking opportunists who don't care about their members

You're right, that is a better and more concise explanation than what I offered.

genstrike wrote:

I knew the assholes in power in the NDP didn't deserve my support, but I still had hopes for the rank and file.  But I am forced to revisit that, and assume that most NDPers don't want anti-scab, want higher tuition, and are generally satisfied with the Neutered Democratic Party and their Blairite bullshit.

Remember that this was a delegate selection and not OMOV. Originally the leadership decision was to be OMOV, but the MFL decided to go back to the delegate system a couple of years ago (and the explanations they offered were condescending and insulting). Ashton called for a return to OMOV. The delegate selection process can be confusing and I don't see any democratic reasoning for keeping it in. (I think even the PCs choose their leader by OMOV.) Would Ashton have won with OMOV? Who knows, maybe Sellinger would have still won, but I think this question needs to be asked.

And this rank and file NDP member is not satisfied with the "Neutered Democratic Party."

genstrike wrote:

I don't know how any labour delegates or young people could have possibly voted for Selinger.  I've said it before, but I still don't fucking get it.  They have a literally once in 20 year chance to change the direction of the party and get some of the things they want, and they manage to fuck it all up when it's a pretty clear choice.  The only explanations I can think of are that these people are either opportunists kissing Selinger's ass, or have so internalized the dominant media discourse that they are too left wing that they have lost all confidence in their abilities and have gone beyond bending over on request to bending over at the slightest opportunity.

Or maybe they have this crazy-ass idea that the party that's in power -- the party that's electable --  gets to decide policy, not the party that's sitting on the sidelines or slipping in popularity. Gosh darned electoral politics -- you actually have to get yourself elected to do the things you want!

Quote:

I predict that now, the cult of personality will take over.  Any concerns about government policies and the direction of the party will be drowned out by chants of Greg! Greg! Greg!

??!?

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Old Labour is dead in the NDP.  Selinger is Gordon Brown.