Toronto municipal election 2010

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Caissa

For those of us who don't live in Toronto are all councillors elected in ward or is there a mixture of Ward and At-Large Councillors like we have here in Saint John?

SCB4

All elected by geographic ward.

Stockholm

I just read that rightwing crackpot Karen Stintz has now announced that she won't run for mayor of Toronto either...the plot thickens.

ghoris

That's surprising. It can be pretty tough to dislodge municipal incumbents (unless you have a party system like Vancouver, for eg) so usually when someone retires there is a crowded field looking to succeed them, and even someone relatively unknown in the city at large can come out of nowhere to win. My guess is that some right-leaning backroom types are trying to avoid a right-wing vote split and pressured her to take a pass this time, no doubt with the promise that they will back her if she runs two elections from now.

According to the CBC Toronto site, the only declared candidate for mayor is Giorgio Mammoliti. If memory serves, he was a former NDP MPP during the Rae era who spearheaded the opposition to the same-sex benefits bill. Does he actually have any chance of winning or is this a Quixotic tilt at a windmill?

Stockholm

I don't think its about avoiding a rightwing split since its not clear who she would split the vote with. The fact is that to run for mayor you need to personally raise about $2.5 million and you need to have some sort of organization in place across 44 wards. She may have wisely realized that it was just not going to happen.

Mammoliti promises to be the Nunziata of 2010 - another populist crackpot who is probably just pretending to run to get some publicity and who will then drop out and run again for city council. His main policy planks are to have a red light district, to open as many casinos as possible and to sell of transit lines to private companies who want to get "naming rights" (as if McDonald's will pay three billion for a new subway line in exchange for it being called the "McDonald's line"). He's a joke.

adma

Anyone want to speculate on whether Maria Augimeri might be endangered?

Stockholm

why would she be?

adma

(1) perception she's been around for too long, (2) the "shut up" incident after the propane blowup last year...

Polunatic2

I predict that John Tory will throw his hat in the ring for the mayor's race. He's getting 15 hours a week of free (subtle) advertising as a radio talk show host. 

Stockholm

I doubt if the propane incident will matter at all. That was over a year ago and the next election is over a year away. Considering how Rob Ford wins easily every year despite committing gaffes like that on a weekly basis it suggests to me that for an incumbent to lose in Toronto municipal politics - it takes a lot more than putting your foot in your mouth three before the next election.

boomerbsg

Looks like Adam Giambrone is gaining momentum!!! I hope Jack and Olivia endorse him early!

National Post

Michelle

I wonder if Adam Vaughan will run? 

jrootham

Adam Vaughan is a first term councillor from Trinity Spadina.  He doesn't stand a snowball's chance.  Although he would beat Mammoliti, maybe.

Then again, I am an urban bigot.  I don't trust suburban voters.

 

Lord Palmerston

Adam Vaughan has repeatedly said he won't run...not that that's stopped people before.  Vaughan has himself admitted he wouldn't fly in the suburbs.

boomerbsg

With Smitherman's eHealth problems it looks increasingly likely that he won't run for Mayor and Glen Murray looking like an also ran I see a lot of movement towards Giambrone as the progressive alternative to Tory's right wing demagoguery.

LaughingLaughingLaughing

Stockholm

I don't like John Tory and I won't vote for him  - but I wouldn't call him a "demagogue". He's just a right of centre mainstream upper class twit. Tory is about as exciting as a mashed potato sandwich - hardly "demagogic"

boomerbsg

I find his compassion on a budget to be the worst type of demagoguery. His rationale is that it is okay to let people suffer because we can't afford to help them and we can't afford to help them because we are already paying too much in taxes and we need to pay less.

He is the snake oil salesman that makes it palatable for people to justify placing their Mercedes lease payment over the needs of working Torontonians

Stockholm

boomerbsg wrote:

I find his compassion on a budget to be the worst type of demagoguery. His rationale is that it is okay to let people suffer because we can't afford to help them and we can't afford to help them because we are already paying too much in taxes and we need to pay less.

He is the snake oil salesman that makes it palatable for people to justify placing their Mercedes lease payment over the needs of working Torontonians

 

You make John Tory sound just like Paul Martin or Michael Ignatieff. If you think that being against tax increases and being against higher welfare rates ipso-facto makes someone a "demagogue" then I guess that you just labelled about 90% of Canadian politicians including 100% of Tories and Liberals as well as some New Democrats as "demogogues". So if EVERYONE is a demagogue - then no one is a demogogue.

Rexdale_Punjabi Rexdale_Punjabi's picture

Im tired of havin a liberal mp esp now that we got rich white woman who has no business even coming to the hood in the 1st place.

 

NDP son nuff said.

Roy cullen was ok but I dont think he ever really did anything but sit on the bench n make his money.

boomerbsg

Not all demagogues sound like Rush or Palin. Those are the easy ones to spot. My objection to Tory is that he comes off as "harmless" yet his message is lock step with any uber-corporatist. Privatisation, anti union and demolishing public housing under the guise of "redevelopment"

Stockholm

"Privatisation, anti union and demolishing public housing under the guise of "redevelopment""

You better put on your seat belt because I can assure you that if Smitherman runs for mayor - that will be his platform as well.

If you look in any dictionary, a "demagogue" is usually described as someone very charismatic and populist who is able to whip up crowds into a frenzy. They can be from anywhere on the political spectrum. I'll be John Tory only wishes he was a demagogue - if he had any of the those qualities he wouldn't have been such a total flop as a politician as he has been.

If the elction is between Tory and Smirtherman - then you will get identical policies from both - the only difference is that Smitherman would govern as a viciously partisan big "L" Liberal on a vendetta against anyone with any NDP or PC ties and he he would have a lot of temper tantrums and meltdowns in public and would have huge staff turnover because he's know to be so personally abusive to people who have the misfortune of working with him

Tory is exactly the same as Smitherman in terms of ideology, but he is less personally offensive and probably wants to be "liked" enough that he'll try to get along with everyone and will just be kind of ineffectual and end up compromising with everyone.

boomerbsg

That's why I'm so happy that Giambrone is running

Laughing

Stockholm

I would be happy he was running, except that I think his chances of winning are ZILCH and will be less than zilch after the TTC bringings in a massive fare increase and he as TTC chair has to take all the flak for it.

boomerbsg

But George, I think, isn't going to run. As I said above.

With that in mind and Glen nowhere on the radar things look good for Giambrone. I also think Torontonians understand that fares are going up after being frozen for a year because Harper would rather spend money on self publicity than actually help Canadians.

 

Rexdale_Punjabi Rexdale_Punjabi's picture

I think the mayor should better reflect Toz Diversity.

 

I want a sista for mayor nuff said.

Stockholm

boomerbsg wrote:

But George, I think, isn't going to run. As I said above.

With that in mind and Glen nowhere on the radar things look good for Giambrone. I also think Torontonians understand that fares are going up after being frozen for a year because Harper would rather spend money on self publicity than actually help Canadians.

 

I think that's a very weak case. The TTC has had structural funding problems for many many years and this is something that is more the fault of the Ontario government than anything the feds do. When you think its fair or not, right now the municipal government in Toronto is very unpopular and right now people tend to think the TTC is getting more and more expensive for worse and worse service. I agree that its not Giambrone's fault - but if there is a big TTC fare increase, he will have great big bull's eye planted on his back if he runs for mayor. Also as a sitting city councillor who was seen as being in Miller's inner circle, he will be forced to defend every single unpopular thng that people will associate with Miller etc...while Tory would get off scot-free since he has nothing to defend.

boomerbsg

The TTC is picking up the fed's share of the streetcar contract. Looks like Harper not doing his job to me. Stock it seams to me that you have a bit of a thing against Giambrone. Is that true?

Stockholm

No, I actually like Adam Giambrone a lot. In fact I like him so much that i don't want to see him humiliated and see his political career snuffed out at such a young age. I hope I'm wrong, but I think that at this point in time - he is unelectable. He may not be unelectable in 2014 or 2018 - but in 2010 - i just don't think that Torontonians are prepared to elect a second downtown New Democrat in a row - not when Miller is very unpopular and Giambrone will be stuck being cast as the status quo defender of Miller, and not when he still looks like he's 16 years old. Being chair of the TTC when it brings in hueg fare increases is another nail in his coffin. He can try to blame Harper or blame McGuinty - but most people don't have the sophistocation to connect all those dots - their reaction will be "my Metropass now costs 20% more, you run the TTC, I blame you!"

My fear is that he will lose the race for mayor AND lose his seat on council and siphon off millions of dollars that could otherwise go to many council races all for a doomed campaign.

I'm being pragmatic here. I think he is a great guy who would make a great mayor - but now is just not the time.

That being said, if he does run then i hope to God that I'm wrong and that he surprises me and wins and if he runs I will donate money, campaign for him and vote for him etc...But at this stage, if he asked me whether i thought he shoudl run, my answer would be NO.

Skinny Dipper

I think any candidate on the centre-left will take a pass on the mayor's race.  They can probably see the writing on the wall an realize that if John Tory runs a safe campaign, he will become the next mayor.  The only person who I think may run against Tory will be former Winnipeg mayor, Glenn Murray.  He has nothing to lose if he loses the race.  The current left-wing councillors will stand a better chance securing their council seats than run for mayor.

George Smitherman will likely back out once he realizes that he won't be able to raise enough money to run an effective campaign against Tory.

Any left-wing mayoral candidate would have a better chance in becoming mayor in 2015 by running against Tory than running on supporting Miller's record.

Except for the fringe candidates, this will probably be a race with one or two serious candidates.

Stockholm

If Smitherman doesn't run, then maybe Shelley Carroll can run, she would be the perfect combination, a card-carryring Liberal who has a voting record that is 100% in lockstep with the NDP and who is from the suburbs. She could actually win because if Smitherman wasn't running, she would probably get the Liberal organization behind her because they'd have no where else to go - plus people in the NDP would all support because she is a de facto NDPer.

ghoris

Why is Tory seen as a likely shoo-in in the Mayor's race? From afar, it seems like his political career to date has been a complete disaster. First, he lost the mayoral election to Miller in 2003. Then he basically imploded as PC leader in the 2007 election and handed McGuinty a win by default. He failed to win his own seat (in Toronto), and then he proceeded to lose an ultra-safe Tory seat in a by-election. Why is this guy the odds-on favourite to win the mayoralty of a city that has already rejected him twice (and resoundingly so in the last outing)?

Lard Tunderin Jeezus Lard Tunderin Jeezus's picture

SCB4 wrote:

Walker has always struck me as a curmudgeonly contrarian who tries to be fiercely independent of whoever he perceives as "the establishment".

That's a very concise and accurate description of Michael Walker. He's the closest thing to a 'non-partisan' politician that I've ever seen. Walker is very loyal to his constituents, and works very hard to defend their interests. He has opposed many bad development proposals in the riding, always siding with the local communities being affected.

Josh Matlow, on the other hand, is very much the typical capital L Liberal, with his hands deep in the pockets of private interests and developers. He is currently leading the charge to see schools closed in Toronto so that local playgrounds and community centres can be sold off.

Losing Michael Walker to the likes of Josh Matlow would be a disaster. But the Liberal machine is going to do their best to foist Matlow upon us.

Stockholm

I wouldn't say that John Tory is the "odds on favourite" to win. I think that polls right now show him way ahead because he's the best known candidate - its just a measure of name recognition.

Polunatic2

Quote:
 But George, I think, isn't going to run. As I said above.With that in mind and Glen nowhere on the radar things look good for Giambrone.
 Great predictions on Smitherman not running. As no one mentioned it yet, Smitherman IS running. So I guess things are not looking so good for Giambrone anymore? 

Quote:
I would be happy he was running (Giambrone), except that I think his chances of winning are ZILCH
I agree on the "zilch" part of the statement. He must know that too. Which says to me that he's probably boosting his profile in order to run provincially in 2011 (or perhaps federally before that although I'm not sure where he could win).

So Giambrone will probably jump in the race early, try to lock up early endorsers and thwart any possible attempt for someone else on the centre-left who might have a chance to take on Smitherman (and possibly Tory). Is it all about Adam? Am I supposed to be impressed? 

jrootham

You might want to wait until Adam actually does something before you complain about what he does.

 

Polunatic2

Good point jr. Time will tell. I hope I'm wrong and that there is a space for a credible left-centre candidate to make a good run of it.

I'm doing what everyone loves to do - speculate - on actions and on motives. 

George Victor

Do people here really think that John and George would both take votes from the same area of the citizen spectrum and that there is room for someone not announcing budget cuts for 2011?  A water walker from the centre-left?

Doug

It's hard to say what such a person's constituency would be. Smitherman is going to tend to do better downtown and Tory in the suburbs. You'd need someone with strong appeal in both areas to compete and I can't think of any likely suspects from the left with that.

Sineed

Anybody see the puff piece on George in the Globe over the wkend?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/toronto/a-tamer-gentler-geo...(The+Globe+and+Mail+-+National+News)

Maybe "Furious George" is what we need.  David Miller is too nice.  When Denzel Minnen-Wong starts rabbiting on about some stupid shit, George can just heave an ashtray at him, q.e.d.

(I agree with Doug's post above; hopefully some more progressive people will come forward in the coming months.)

Tigana Tigana's picture

Much of the bloat that now occurs in the Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care began while George Smitherman was Minister. Only about 1/3 of the $40B MOHLTC budget goes toward actual patient care.

Smitherman should face some tough questions, not run for mayor.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Smitherman

http://www.auditor.on.ca/en/reports_en.htm

jrootham

I wouldn't expect George to throw an ashtray at Minan-Wong, I'd expect him to agree with him.

 

Sineed

jrootham wrote:

I wouldn't expect George to throw an ashtray at Minan-Wong, I'd expect him to agree with him.

 

ROFL!  Good point!

How about Rob Ford?

(The city needs money - how much would folks pay to see Rob Ford and Furious George square off?)

jrootham

I think the most likely target of a Smitherman ashtray would be Adam Giambrone, mostly because he would be easier to hit than Joe Pantalone.

 

OldManActivist OldManActivist's picture

Set the 2010 Issues Agenda ! 

 

settingtheagenda2010.com/about/

Doug

Sineed wrote:

How about Rob Ford?

 

Anyone who promises to throw things at Rob Ford has my vote!

Tigana Tigana's picture

Mmmm, politics. The Stooges pie fight video is here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qwirWWnzJKM

flamethrower

nothing to say since Nov 17- where's the rabble? Things heated up today with Rossi jumping in. Kyle Rae throwing in the towel too. Nice speech by George at BOT yesterday.

OldManActivist OldManActivist's picture

No content yet, underwhelming candidates, what's to talk about?

My Christmas wish is that the entire council throw in the towel and we get new blood interested in vision and implementation rather than fat paychecks and the perks of being an incumbent.

Boot em all out.

 

Doug

Rossi says as mayor he would sell Toronto Hydro

 

That helped. I've decided I won't vote for Rocco Rossi now.

Sineed

I was already leery of Rossi because he ran John Tory's campaign in 2003.  Remember that campaign?  Miller suggested he might institute tolls on roads into TO both to raise funds and as an environmental measure.  So John Tory stood by the side of the major highways into TO holding up placards saying, "No Tolls!"  He forced David Miller to back away from this proposal.

Despite his more recent gig with the Liberals, Rossi strikes me as one of these righties who doesn't like the government to own profitable assets for, um, some reason.

No progressive candidates so far - I'm looking forward to the new year to see who declares once the race is officially underway.

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