Toronto Centre by-election continued

102 posts / 0 new
Last post
robbie_dee
Toronto Centre by-election continued

Quote:

It's a fait accompli, says conventional wisdom. Toronto Liberal circles are abuzz with speculation about which cabinet post Premier Dalton McGuinty has in store for Glen Murray.

Overwhelmingly, Liberals expect Murray - ex-mayor of Winnipeg, and Toronto arriviste - to glide to victory in the Feb. 4 by-election in Toronto Centre, a so-called "safe seat" vacated by George Smitherman to run for mayor. Murray, who moved here in 2004, reportedly had a yen to run for mayor himself before deciding on Toronto Centre.

There is, however, one small problem - slight as it may be - with the idea the race is in the bag. Supporters of NDP candidate Cathy Crowe insist provincial Liberals are missing a groundswell of public discontent in Toronto Centre, over issues that include the upcoming harmonized sales tax and growing social problems. McGuinty is out of touch, they say, and Toronto Centre will prove it.

Linda Diebel, [url=http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/article/758023--street-nurse-cathy-crowe..."Street Nurse Cathy Crowe takes Toronto Centre's pulse,"[/url] Toronto Star, January 30, 2010.

Regions: 
robbie_dee

Excuse the typo in the OP, it doesn't appear that I can edit it once its posted.

Maysie Maysie's picture

I fixed it for ya, robbie. Smile

social democrat

Gene Lara now appears as an endorser on both the Liberal and NDP campaign websites. Only two more political parties to go, Gene.

edmundoconnor

Gene Lara might like to get in touch with the Hatfields and McCoys of this race – the Freedom and Ontario Libertarian parties. And John Turmel. Just so his dance card's complete.

Lord Palmerston

“Glen Murray has the experience and dedication to uphold and support issues of human rights, the environment, health care and community development. This makes him different from the rest of the candidates. He is a seasoned public servant with a proven track record of service. There is no doubt that he can improve the conditions of the people in the community. ”

"Cathy Crowe is the one candidate that voters should seriously consider as she has been involved in advocating for the homeless of this community. It is worth voting for a person who has been trying hard to alleviate the communities’ needs."

 

edmundoconnor

Are those quotes from their respective web sites? I suspect they are, but I'd like confirmation.

Lord Palmerston

Yes

skdadl

From a distance, all I can do is wish everyone working for Cathy Crowe good luck and a good week.

edmundoconnor

Thanks.

hsfreethinkers hsfreethinkers's picture

Cathy Crowe's got my vote. I would vote Green but for (1) their revised position on faith in schools, (2) FPTP, (3) I've never heard of the Green candidate, and (4) I haven't received any information about the Green candidate (forget his name now).

Unionist

When did the Greens revise their position and what is it now?

hsfreethinkers hsfreethinkers's picture

Unionist wrote:

When did the Greens revise their position and what is it now?

I'm not sure if there has been a formal policy change (I'm not involved at all with GPO), but I first heard about it in this interview: [Url=http://www.tvo.org/cfmx/tvoorg/theagenda/index.cfm?page_id=7&bpn=779669&... GPO leader on TVO[/URL]. I emailed them to seek clarification after I saw that, and they confirmed the change. They have gone from strong support of a single system, to the new leader immediately saying they will not be emphasizing this issue as it is "divisive", and now they are musing about bringing in an "open and inclusive space" in each school for children to practice *their* faith at lunch, et cetera as is done in our Universities apparently. The problem with that is University students are old enough to be responsible for their choice of faith / worldview. Whereas, by facilitating religious worship in public schools, we would be aiding the indoctrination of children with taxpayer dollars.

Lord Palmerston

60% of Ontarians want one school system, and every party is afraid to touch it (Cue someone who is bound to say: the Greens got 8% and ZERO seats.  Obviously this is not an issue people care about)

Yeah the Greens seem invisible this time around.  I think Cathy Crowe who is an activist and not seen as a typical politician is likely to appeal to a lot of Green voters.

 

adma

Lord Palmerston wrote:
Yeah the Greens seem invisible this time around. 

Which is probably a real untold story of this byelection.  Even Pam Taylor's held her own, by comparison (well, enough for a likely token-solid David Hutcheon-ish 3rd place)

Stockholm

At the federal level, various pundits have been picking up on how there seems to be this disconnect between the Greens getting as much as 12 or 13% in some rather suspect national polls - but then  getting 3% or less in each of the four recent federal byelections. I think the same questions are soon going to be asked at the provincial level. In the St. Paul byelection, the Green got something like 5% and now in Toronto Centre (where federally the Greens had shown some signs of relatively strength in the federal byelection in 2008) they seem destined to be blown out of the water. People are going to have to ask where this supposed green support is if it seems non-existent in two downtown Toronto ridings like St. Paul and Toronto Centre which ought to be somewhat fertile ground for them. You'd thnk they would run their new leader in the byelection just to get a bit of publicity.

Lord Palmerston

Chris Tindal, who did very well in the byelection for the Greens, is running municipally for Kyle Rae's seat.

Lord Palmerston

Stockholm does raise an important point about the lack of LGBT representation on Cathy Crowe's list of endorsements.   The only one I recognize is community physician Alan Li, though there may be others who aren't visibly involved with LGBT issues.  Why no endorsement from say, El-Farouk Khaki?  Or perhaps Helen Kennedy, or former candidate Brent Hawkes? 

aka Mycroft

"Glen Murray has the experience and dedication to uphold and support issues of human rights, the environment, health care and community development. This makes him different from the rest of the candidates. He is a seasoned public servant with a proven track record of service. There is no doubt that he can improve the conditions of the people in the community."

"Cathy Crowe is the one candidate that voters should seriously consider as she has been involved in advocating for the homeless of this community. It is worth voting for a person who has been trying hard to alleviate the communities' needs."

Actually, I'm told Gene's also endorsed Pam Taylor.

 

mimeguy

"The problem with that is University students are old enough to be responsible for their choice of faith / worldview. Whereas, by facilitating religious worship in public schools, we would be aiding the indoctrination of children with taxpayer dollars."

The GPO has not changed its position. Not emphasizing the one school system over the economy is not the same as changing policy. Equal funding is not a large issue in Toronto Centre and there are more immediate issues that need to be addressed. I have been touring schools for 30 years as a guest artist and accommodations have already been made in many schools to allow Muslim students, as an example, a chance to pray on Fridays. This is done discreetly and doesn't disrupt the school schedule one bit. A very simple solution for young people of faith. Allowing people to express their faith is not indoctrination of any kind. Religious studies in schools as a part of the social education curriculum is not indoctrination.  If students can learn political systems and philosophy they can also learn moral values in the same manner.  The GPO has been clear that money saved in a one board system can help finance full day kindergarten.

I don't know what you mean by FPTP when it is in the same sentence sequence as the others.  The way to achieve proportional representation is to continue to express diverse views and votes.  It won't happen by endorsing the old system which is already rigged towards the status quo.  Since when does a candidate have to be 'famous'. Stefan has worked in the community for a long time and if you wanted to get to know him then just call/email him and ask him your questions or express your concerns. Dan Murray may be well known but so is McGuinty and the liberals and their record. Murray is trying to present himself as the guy who can get Dalton and the rest of his colleagues to see the light and it's simply not true.

The GPO is less visible in this campaign because there was no CA in place prior to the by-election call and the campaign is late getting underway. It certainly is not unusual for a Green campaign to be invisible to the media but Stefan has not been invisible to the community in general during this election. The target is maintaining the 9% or 10% earned in the last provincial election with the resources available. I'm not going to pretend to know how the residents of TC will vote so we'll know on Thursday what the results will be.

I've also heard recently that the liberals are worried and have had trouble generating the same volunteer enthusiasm in this election.  Maybe that's just by-election apathy on the part of supporters who think this a 'done deal'.  That's the beauty of by-elections sometimes.  Once in awhile passion gets to kick the ass of apathy. 

Lord Palmerston

Thankfully the HST issue isn't dominating the campaign like it did in St. Paul's, where the NDP message was "send Dalton McGuinty a message, stop the HST."

The Greens actually seemed quite visible in St. Paul's.  They had a fairly high profile candidate and lots of signs up.

adma

Lord Palmerston wrote:
The Greens actually seemed quite visible in St. Paul's.  They had a fairly high profile candidate and lots of signs up.

And another difference from the St. Paul's byelection is a more aggressive NDP campaign souping up what might have been Green energy--by comparison, Julian Heller could never quite shake that perennial third-place factor vs Hoskins + Levy...

edmundoconnor

Re: Stefan. I've been working in the riding on the NDP campaign, and I haven't seen one sign or piece of campaign lit for him. Not one. Now, I freely admit I'm biased, but I've seen plenty of Murray and Taylor (and Crowe!) signs and campaign lit. Premdas has been virtually invisible to me and to Toronto Centre. The only bit of promo stuff I saw (at the 519 debate) were some generic GPO leaflets that they must have got from party HQ. Stefan put in a solid performance at the debate, but when you're not publicizing yourself, it's hard for you to get yourself known.

Complain about the MSM all you like, but your campaign being invisible to the voters of Toronto Centre doesn't help matters.

hsfreethinkers hsfreethinkers's picture

mimeguy wrote:

"The problem with that is University students are old enough to be responsible for their choice of faith / worldview. Whereas, by facilitating religious worship in public schools, we would be aiding the indoctrination of children with taxpayer dollars."

The GPO has not changed its position. Not emphasizing the one school system over the economy is not the same as changing policy. Equal funding is not a large issue in Toronto Centre and there are more immediate issues that need to be addressed. I have been touring schools for 30 years as a guest artist and accommodations have already been made in many schools to allow Muslim students, as an example, a chance to pray on Fridays. This is done discreetly and doesn't disrupt the school schedule one bit. A very simple solution for young people of faith. Allowing people to express their faith is not indoctrination of any kind. Religious studies in schools as a part of the social education curriculum is not indoctrination.  If students can learn political systems and philosophy they can also learn moral values in the same manner.  The GPO has been clear that money saved in a one board system can help finance full day kindergarten.

I disagree with most of this, and I'd like to discuss a few points in more detail so I'll start a new thread. I'll copy my post(s) the other relevant posts there and then those that want to discuss the religion in schools issue can join in.

mimeguy wrote:

I don't know what you mean by FPTP when it is in the same sentence sequence as the others.  The way to achieve proportional representation is to continue to express diverse views and votes.  It won't happen by endorsing the old system which is already rigged towards the status quo.  Since when does a candidate have to be 'famous'. Stefan has worked in the community for a long time and if you wanted to get to know him then just call/email him and ask him your questions or express your concerns.

Granted if more people's votes are wasted it makes a more compelling case for PR, but it isn't a compelling reason for me to support the GPO or this candidate. It's a fact that the GPO has no chance at this time in this riding. If I were neutral as to whether the NDP, Liberal or Conservative wins the seat I'd consider voting Green so my vote is added to the statistics for the GPO. However, I'm far from neutral so I'll be supporting the NDP at this time.

Scott Piatkowski Scott Piatkowski's picture

I dropped a (condo tower) poll for Cathy on Saturday after attending an event in Toronto. I talked to a fair number of people in the elevator and corridors and the response was very very positive. I'm trying to arrange my schedule to make it back to the riding on E-Day, since I think it could be a close one.

hsfreethinkers hsfreethinkers's picture
robbie_dee

Elections Ontario reports that [url=http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive/February2010/01/c5634.html]2001 voters in Toronto Centre cast ballots in six days of advance polls last week.[/url]

 

3,862 voters in Toronto Centre voted in advance polls over thirteen days in the last general election.

social democrat

Neither the New Democrats nor the Liberals seem to want to make this a byelection about issues (unlike the NDP's HST-based St Paul's by-election).  This appears to be a straight personality-based contest between local hero Kathy Crowe versus come-from-away Liberal Glen Murray.

edmundoconnor

Election night could turn into a very interesting one. Murray may take Rosedale (home of the Green Berets of the Liberals, for whom when Montreal is a smoking ruin, and the rest of the 416 a write-off, they will stand, shoulder-to-shoulder, to the end), but I think he will suffer a severe shock south of Bloor. If the blocks come out to support Crowe, they can easily nullify Rosedale and then some. The word nailbiter may very well apply.

Lord Palmerston

No kidding...isn't 80% of the population south of Bloor? 

Doug

As with most byelections, it's all about turnout. Whoever can get the most supporters to the polls wins.

edmundoconnor

@Lord Palmerston: I don't have the demographic data to hand, but I wouldn't be in the least surprised. Rosedale can vote whichever way it wants, because it alone won't make any real difference to the outcome (although from my perspective, I'd like them to choose Taylor, as she can't get arrested south of Bloor). Whoever sweeps the blocks gets the prize.

I've been wrong before on this, but the result here might just show how complacent the Ontario Liberals have become. Read (some of) the press and you get the idea that Murray's having his robe and ermine measured, ready for his coronation.

Scott Piatkowski Scott Piatkowski's picture

Crowe held a press conference today in St. Jamestown about inequitable access to polling stations. St. Jamestown has 8,866 voters and 3 polling stations. Three buildings on Bay Street have 910 voters, and 3 polling stations.

 

I found this out from [url=http://www.facebook.com/pages/Cathy-Crowe/270191312145?ref=ts#/pages/Cat... Facebook page[/url], which as of today now has more supporters than Glen Murray's (and he had a significant head start).

 

Scott Piatkowski Scott Piatkowski's picture

In other by-election news, [url=http://www.xtra.ca/public/National/OPEN_SECRET_Conservative_cabinet_mini... Taylor outed John Baird[/url] this morning.

Sunday Hat

And Glen Murray slagged Bob Rae. "I am not Bob Rae" he intones. "I cut taxes every year I was mayor."

 

Of course he's not Bob Rae. Bob Rae is the one with the scarf. Whereas Glen is wearing just a blazer.

 

Michelle

Scott Piatkowski wrote:

In other by-election news, [url=http://www.xtra.ca/public/National/OPEN_SECRET_Conservative_cabinet_mini... Taylor outed John Baird[/url] this morning.

Wow!  I didn't hear that this morning!

Scott Piatkowski Scott Piatkowski's picture

Sunday Hat wrote:
And Glen Murray slagged Bob Rae. "I am not Bob Rae" he intones. "I cut taxes every year I was mayor."

Yet another puff piece from The Star (which, strangely, has commenting disabled for this article). His campaign must be in more trouble than we thought.

Caissa

Has John Baird commented on his outing?

aka Mycroft

Caissa wrote:

Has John Baird commented on his outing?

This will be interesting to watch. On the one hand, if the Tories backtrack on the outing they prove Andy Barrie's point and doom Pam Taylor's candidacy and also make it that much more difficult for them to win urban votes. If they confirm then the federal party risks a backlash from social conservatives.

Polunatic2

I profiled Baird in 2006 when he joined Harper's cabinet. While he wasn't outed, he was noticed for some of his gay positive initiatives. From Wikipedia

Quote:
 * He supported same-sex marriage during the 2003 provincial election and, in 2005, helped the McGuinty government achieve quick passage of a provincial bill granting legal recognition to same-sex couples.

* Baird won a contested nomination battle for Ottawa West—Nepean Conservative nomination on May 5, 2005.... John Pacheco, a leader in the social conservative movement against same-sex marriage, had also sought the nomination but was disqualified due to past comments he had made alleging that homosexual practices posed a health risk.

* In December 2006, Baird was one of thirteen Conservative MPs who voted against reopening the national debate on same-sex marriage.[69] 

aka Mycroft

Yes, to be fair, Baird hasn't been a hypocrite a la Larry Craig.

Scott Piatkowski Scott Piatkowski's picture

My guess is that he and the PMO will let the comment pass and hope that no one notices.

ottawaobserver

Baird was outed in the comments section of a post on Andrew Coyne's old blog, the day he got sworn into the federal cabinet. After a few hours, Coyne deleted all the evidence. I never saved a screenshot of it, but in any event it's nobody's business but Baird's whether he should come out or not. Nor should Andy Barrie have been asking those kinds of ad hominem questions. It should be about the candidates' policies and their parties' policies on issues of importance to the gay community. Not who's out and who's not, unless they're in the closet and voting against the community's interests.

Oh, and to answer another question from upthread, El-Farouk Khaki was one of Cathy Crowe's nominators at her nomination meeting, if you watch the speeches on YouTube.

aka Mycroft

The thing is, according to the media's rules of engagement, this now gives them grounds to mention it. I suspect Taylor outing Baird will be a minor story in the Globe and maybe the Star and that his sexual orientation will be mentioned in articles at least as often as it merits a mention in stories about Kathleen Wynne, Smitherman or Scott Brison ie occasionally.

aka Mycroft

ottawaobserver wrote:
Nor should Andy Barrie have been asking those kinds of ad hominem questions.

How, exactly, is it ad hominem to ask "Can you think of a single openly gay Conservative politician, either provincially or federally, who is gay?" Particularly when Taylor is running in the riding that has the largest proportion of LGBT voters in Canada and has been claiming that her party is not homophobic?

Stockholm

I agree. I think its perfectly fair to ask why the Conservative Party has no openly gay MPs or MPPs. Similarly, if the entire Tory caucus was male - it would be legitimate to ask - why not a single woman?

nicky

For what it's worth, I have just returned from an hour long walk through Cabbagetown with my dog Angus. Crowe signs now outnumber Murray signs by about 2 to one. Taylor has perhaps 10% of Crowe's tally.

I know that Cabbagetwon is only a small part of the riding but the signs look encouraging for Crowe. My sense is that about a week ago Crowe and Murray had roughly the same number of signs here.

Can someone tell me where Crowe's party is on Thursday night? It might be very interesting.

aka Mycroft

For Crowe to win Taylor has to do much better in Rosedale than have recent Tory candidates. Any impression of how the campaign is going north of Bloor?

Lord Palmerston

Quote:
For what it's worth, I have just returned from an hour long walk through Cabbagetown with my dog Angus. Crowe signs now outnumber Murray signs by about 2 to one. Taylor has perhaps 10% of Crowe's tally.

And the Greens are invisible I take it?  They largely ate into the NDP vote in the last provincial and federal elections.

Lord Palmerston

aka Mycroft wrote:
For Crowe to win Taylor has to do much better in Rosedale than have recent Tory candidates. Any impression of how the campaign is going north of Bloor?

I was north of Bloor today - along Roxborough, Macpherson and Marlborough (west of Yonge so not Rosedale).  Very, very few signs up.  Taylor and Murray were about even, no green or orange.

aka Mycroft

Hm, could get interesting.

David Crombie used to use very artsy campaign signs in the 1980s that had only a very tiny Tory logo and didn't, as I recall, even use party colours (outside of the actual logo). Maybe that's the secret for strong Tory performances in Toronto? :)

Pages

Topic locked