Alf Apps: meet Jim Harris

10 posts / 0 new

Sat, 2010-07-17 13:11

ottawaobserver

I'm surprised no-one has posted the Liberal Party president's plaintive appeal to his members to ignore the media and believe that they can still win, an 18-page memo which made it almost immediately to BC's Public Eye Online and thence to National Newswatch.

Alf Apps crunches the numbers to argue that the Liberals can win if they position themselves right, and stay upbeat and united.

Apropos of which, here's a beauty from the vaults:

Jim Harris: "15 Reasons Why Elizabeth May Running in Central Nova is a Strategically Brilliant Move" (from April 2007)

... and here's how it turned out, according to Greg Morrow's blogpost from yesterday (also on National Newswatch) ...

"The Green Party's Mess"

Sat, 2010-07-17 13:14

Stockholm

Boy is the Green Party ever a MESS! The conventional wisdom is that EMay is the only thing keeping them alive. I actually think she's the worse thing that ever happened to that party and so I hope she remains Green leader. The longer she is their leader the more she runs them even further into the ground than they are now!

Sun, 2010-07-18 16:29

Doug

Here's an unpleasant thought for Alf Apps:

Now, just about the most reliable trend in the chart is that every time there’s been an election, Conservative support has jumped smartly upward while Liberal support declined as sharply. You see it happen in 2004, when what looked like a Liberal rout of the Conservatives turned into the loss of the Liberal majority.

Mon, 2010-07-19 22:38

NorthReport

Thanks Doug.

Wells appears to be correct in his assessment that in the past several elections support for the Liberals crash and jump for the Conservatives on E-Day.

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/POLNAT-W10-T424E.pdf

Tue, 2010-07-20 00:17

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

Thanks Doug.

Wells appears to be correct in his assessment that in the past several elections support for the Liberals crash and jump for the Conservatives on E-Day.

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/POLNAT-W10-T424E.pdf

Though the graph for some reason doesn't show it, Nanos had the Conservatives with a 6 point lead in April 2005.

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/NationState%202005Q2%20Ballot...

Tue, 2010-07-20 10:54

Stockholm

I think people are getting mixed up talking about two different things here. Are we talking about polls overestimating support for one party and under-estimating another or are we talking about election campaigns tending to depress support for one party and increase support for another.

These are two very different phenomenon. For example when the writ was dropped in both the 2004 and 2006 elections, the Liberals had big leads. In both campaigns the Liberals lost support as a result of running their usual dreadful campaign. BUT, in both 2004 and 2006, the Liberals still did a lot less badly when the votes were counted than what the final election eve polls said. Keep in mind that three days before the '06 election polls were gving the Tories as much as a 14% lead. They ended up with only a six point lead when the votes were counted. So, in other words, the Liberals lost ground compared to where they were before the campaign began, but they gained ground compared to what the final polls forecast.

Thu, 2010-07-22 04:35

thorin_bane

LAzy voters not worrying =slippage, then worrying about a harper majority they decided to go vote.

Thu, 2010-07-22 07:58

ottawaobserver

I-gnatieff on Ignatieff

Quote:

At the same event, Ignatieff was reminded by a reporter that voters are disappointed with his leadership and find him cold.

"I like politics," Ignatieff said. "People come to see me. I like to listen to people. I like respectful contacts with people. That is what works in politics."

The former Harvard University professor rejected the notion he is emotionless.

"I am not a cold man," he said. "I am, as my wife could tell you, a man with sometimes too much passion, too much emotion.

"I try to be disciplined in public. Little by little, people will get to know the Ignatieff I am, that I have always been. I am doing a public tour to be close to people."

Ignatieff contended he is not the problem. "It is the cynicism toward politics."

Well, I don't know where that cynicism could be coming from, do you? Good grief.

Thu, 2010-07-22 23:09

ghoris

Reminds me of a classic Homer Simpson moment: "You see? You see? 'I just left my first session, and I haven't even opened my mouth yet'!"

But seriously, I take some comfort from the fact that even with the Libs (and apparently the Greens) in full-on meltdown mode, Harper still can't seem to do better than 36-37% in the polls.

Fri, 2010-07-23 00:55

#10

-=+=-

ottawaobserver wrote:

I-gnatieff on Ignatieff

Quote:

[...]

"I try to be disciplined in public. Little by little, people will get to know the Ignatieff I am, that I have always been. I am doing a public tour to be close to people."

[...]

Ignatieff addresses himself in the 3rd person -- way to go!

(Though it behooves us all to remember each one of us has a little Ignatieff inside -- and call an exorcist.)