We have a federal page, so I figured with the election a little over a year away, why not throw up a provincial NDP nomination page.
I wasn't at the TC AGM but apparently Cathy Crowe is thinking of running again, anyone who was there have any word on that?
Maybe Paul Ferreira in York South-Weston?
According to Blake Batson, Alex Cullen's mayoral run is more about increasing his profile for a run at Yasir Naqvi next year than actually trying to win.
Paul Ferreira told me himself that he is running again in YS-W in 2011. He's got a real chance. Albanese is hanging on by the skin of her teeth, and is ripe for the boot.
While I really want a Dipper to win in Ottawa Centre in 2011, I really don't think it's going to happen. Naqvi is a popular and talented MPP, with even (if memory serves) Peter Kormos congratulating him on his behaviour in the Legislature. The only way Naqvi loses is if the Liberal ship goes down and takes him with it, which I can't see happening.
Well, on familial grounds, he's "all but NDP"...to the point where, who knows, he *could* switch parties...
Naqvi is the president of the OLP and has been very active in selling the HST, he is supremely unlikely to cross over.
Ridings the ONDP should focus on:
Ottawa Centre
Algoma-Manitoulin
Thunder Bay-Atikokan
Thunder Bay-Superior North
Timiskaming-Cochrane
London-Fanshawe
Hamilton Mountain
Oshawa
Davenport
York South-Weston
So we've got some speculation on Ottawa Centre and York South-Weston, any others?
Couldn't the Windsor/Essex ridings also merit ONDP consideration?
I would maybe put those on a different tier of winnability, despite owning those ridings federally the ONDP didn't have great
showings in Windsor last time, and running against high profile cabinet ministers who despite everything seem to be locally
popular is never easy. But if anyone has any suggestions or ideas on who should/might run for any riding, that's the idea.
I wonder if Pat Hayes would be interested in running again in Essex.
Yasir is the last person to switch over. His brother Ali and dad Anwar have both run for the federal NDP, but Yasir is a tried-and-true Liberal. If the Liberals were smart/opportunistic, they would start pushing him into a cabinet role and maybe the leader's job in 10 years or so.
A part of me almost wants Marion Burton to not win her municipal race, she would be a great candidate in Peterborough riding.
I wasn't at the TC AGM but apparently Cathy Crowe is thinking of running again, anyone who was there have any word on that?
I received an email from the TC NDP encouraging people to contact Cathy and tell her to run again.
Wonder who is being wooed for Hamilton mountain? They ran a very good union man last time, but not a natural politician or communicator. That was really the ONDP's chance to take the seat, as Sophia has by-and-large got a good press and will be hard to dislodge without a really strong challenger.
Scott Duvall, maybe?
Among the ridings the ONDP should focus on is Sudbury. The current MPP is Corrections Minister Rick Bartolucci and he won last time by a huge margin. I used to live in the area and my friends and family tell me that he has angered many in his riding by saying and doing virtually nothing during the Vale Strike. Perhaps he is vulnerable. Anyone know if a candidate has been picked yet?
Finally some news
http://www.stratfordbeaconherald.com/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=2644915
"The crowd included Rick Mann, who intends to seek the Perth-Wellington nomination for next year's provincial election."
I don't personally know much about Mann, anyone here know him?
I know Rick well. Stand-up guy. Plenty of anger and passion. Used to be on the exec of the ONDP LGBT caucus. Stood for the co-chair of the federal LGBT caucus, but stood aside for Susan Gapka.
Don't know how well he'll play in a rural constituency, where *some* people might not exactly hold positive views on non-heterosexuals. He'll do very well to get to 15% in 2011 (10.1% in 2007).
Doesn't seem to do Scott Brisoon any harm in his 100% rural Nova Scotia riding.
And remember: Stratford proper is inherently arts/gay-positive...
I think Rick will have trouble more to with him being NDP than anything else. From the figures, this is a provincial grudge-match between the Liberals and PCs, and the NDP has had trouble staying on the radar there.
I have a suspicion that those parties that have had out LGBT candidates have had them largely in urban ridings (Scott in NS being an exception). I would love to hear any figures or statistics on the issue of LGBT candidates, but sadly have come up empty.
Among the ridings the ONDP should focus on is Sudbury. The current MPP is Corrections Minister Rick Bartolucci and he won last time by a huge margin. I used to live in the area and my friends and family tell me that he has angered many in his riding by saying and doing virtually nothing during the Vale Strike. Perhaps he is vulnerable. Anyone know if a candidate has been picked yet?
Rick Bartolucci could definitely be vulnerable, though I suspect it would take a bit of a perfect storm (e.g. the right NDP candidate, some Diane Marleau loyalists paying him back for his role in getting her defeated federally in 2008, etc.) In addition to his fence-sitting on the Vale strike (and then, rather laughably, when the strike was finally resolved he tried to claim that his invisibility on the issue helped to bring about a solution), he's also gotten a lot of criticism for failing to move faster on Highway 69 when he was in MNDMF, and for not working harder to secure CEMI. In fact, he actually has a longstanding reputation as the kind of politician who will do absolutely nothing during the project itself, but then jump into the photo-op at the end to claim credit for it anyway.
(He was also the vice-principal of my elementary school for a couple of years. But I digress.)
That said, it is the inner city Sudbury riding we're talking about, not Nickel Belt, so the Liberals clearly have an advantage -- and as we Dippers know all too well, even in a city where we have some strength it's far easier to win an open seat than it is to defeat even an incumbent that people grumble and complain about (though we did pull the latter off federally in 2008, and we have a much weaker record of being able to win Sudbury federally than we do provincially.) So I wouldn't call it a guaranteed slam dunk, but it's not a "no chance in hell" seat anymore, either.
I would tend to oppose the idea of the ONDP making the Windsor ridings a priority. If the polls were suggesting another Liberal landslide, it would be a different situation. With the PCs in the lead, however, the focus should be on preventing a PC victory. Why mess with safe Liberal ridings represented by effective cabinet ministers? (I would say the same thing to Liberals who wanted to run strong candidates against Brian Masse or Joe Comartin in a federal election.)
Because there are a lot of NDP members and activists in Windsor and they are not going to just sit on their hands in the next election. Since there is zero chance of the Tories making any inroads in Windsor - I see no reason why the NDP shouldn't take dead aim at Sandra Poopoo and Dwight Duncan - and at this stage we still don't know if they will even run again.
http://bgmndp.org/bgmndp/Glenn_Crowe_Bio
2007 candidate looks like he is going again in Bramalea-Gore-Malton, if the website is up to date.
Alex Cullen just stepped out of the mayoralty race in Ottawa Tuesday morning, and announced that he would run for his old municipal ward again instead. But he's pointedly refusing to rule out a provincial try for the nomination in Ottawa Centre. The last Ottawa Centre provincial candidate, Will Murray, is also planning to run again, and he came within 2000 votes last time. I think he took awhile to figure out the role of a candidate in respect of the riding association last time, or so I heard, but he struck me as very intelligent, and with a lot of room to grow.
Murray won a contested nomination last time, based on a very strong speech that won the room, in spite of the fact that many on the riding executive were supporting his opponent (although Murray getting endorsed by Marion Dewar didn't hurt him either).
Naqvi is working hard, but it's the kind of seat that would go in a swing. Everyone knows Yasir will never get in cabinet, coming from the same town as the Premier, and with Bob Chiarelli in cabinet as well now.
There was a strong Green vote here last time, but now there's a different candidate. If people get mad at Premier Dad, I think we can get Ottawa Centre back, with the right candidate ourselves. Personally I don't think that's Cullen, and I'm glad Murray wants another run.
The problem with Cullen is that it would be pretty easy to paint him as an opportunist.
He went from school board trustee to trying to be an MPP to being a city councillior to MPP to city councillor to running for mayor to running back to council and now not making much an effort hidind that he'd like to go back to MPP. With the added "bonus" of a party switch thrown in.
I know Rick well. Stand-up guy. Plenty of anger and passion. Used to be on the exec of the ONDP LGBT caucus. Stood for the co-chair of the federal LGBT caucus, but stood aside for Susan Gapka. Don't know how well he'll play in a rural constituency . . .
By the 2006 census, Stats Can says Perth-Wellington's urban areas are:
Stratford 30,461
St. Mary's 6,617
Listowel 6,303
Mount Forest 4,490
Mitchell 4,220
Palmerston 2,579
Arthur 2,327
Harriston 2,108
Drayton 1,692
Milverton 1,446
Total: 60% urban.
Of course, I'm using the same Stats Can definition they use when they say 80% of Canadians live in urban areas. Since that figure is so well-known, it's only fair to follow that definition, isn't it?
Could someone please tell me what the fixed date of the next Ontario election is?
If there is a federal election next spring, would some of the NDP candidates already nominated (70 of 106 ridings according to the Pundit's Guide web-site) be thinking about the provincial election later on that year?
Alex Cullen said today he won't run for the nomination in Ottawa Centre.
If Joe Pantalone loses the mayoralty, might he run provincially? (Either in place of Marchese, or against/succeeding Ruprecht?)
Anyone hear/know of anyone else thinking of running? The PC's have started to nominate people already, but I haven't heard much from the NDP/Liberals/Greens.
Barring unforeseen events, the next election is due on October 6 2011.
As to your other question, they might. Though it would depend on how close they were to victory federally, their commitment to running federally, and what the prospects were provincially, amongst other factors. I wouldn't like to guess who.
Jim Coyle in the Toronto Star wrote a remarkably positive column about Andrea Horwath today:
http://www.thestar.com/article/873488--coyle-ndp-s-andrea-horwath-is-a-n...
"Horwath is, more than anything, real. She has, in short order, put her stamp on the party. And it’s not your grandfather’s NDP.
She’s changing party culture. She’s no fan of ideology, dogma or the macho political rhetoric, petty insult or adolescent smirking of a predominantly male realm.
In a word, she’s interested in results for Ontarians — most particularly the most vulnerable and those hit hardest by the global economic recession.
She does her legwork. She takes public-transit tours through Toronto’s needier neighbourhoods, meeting voters in ones or twos, learning about their lives and burdens.
The stories she tells at Queen’s Park are about mums spending four hours a day to get to work and back, about seniors, those raising children with special needs, the hard-working Ontario families working several minimum-wage jobs to make ends meet.
A recent poll suggests Ontarians still don’t know Andrea Horwath. They should.
She’s a new kind of leader, largely bereft of ego, in politics not to make a career of it but to serve."
We have a candidate!
http://ndplondonarea.ca/news/2010-11-14/fanshawe-new-democrats-choose-armstrong-provincial-candidate
Teresa Armstrong in London-Fanshawe.
double post
Jim Coyle in the Toronto Star wrote a remarkably positive column about Andrea Horwath today:
http://www.thestar.com/article/873488--coyle-ndp-s-andrea-horwath-is-a-n...
"She’s no fan of ideology, dogma or the macho political rhetoric, petty insult or adolescent smirking of a predominantly male realm.
She’s a new kind of leader, largely bereft of ego, in politics not to make a career of it but to serve."
I find that touching, but off the mark. He makes her sound like Audrey McLaughlin. She's from Hamilton. The "Women of Steel" are neither meek nor mild.
She started in Hamilton's often bare-knuckle municipal politics. In seven years she fought her way in a tough field to a starring role in Ontario's third-largest city. That's the reason why, when she ran for MPP in the 2004 by-election, she got 63.6% of the vote in Hamilton East. Six months earlier we had gotten only 29.4% there.
Horwath's loyalty to local issues and the labour class has endeared her to many Hamiltonians and much of the labour movement across Ontario.
So, I gather Adam Giambrone didn't run for anything in the municipal election. Could political rehabilitation start with a run at Queen's Park?
Giambrone's currently off on a dig in Sudan (IIRC), and I don't think he's going to think about running again in the immediate short-term. I think I remember him saying he's sitting it out for a couple of years. But I would be very, very surprised if he doesn't make a run next-next time around, either federally or provincially. So, 2013 or so for federal, and 2015 for provincial (barring by-elections). As to where? Maybe not Davenport (although that is looking juicy for 2011, and maybe Pantalone could go for it), but somewhere downtown, I'd guess.
Giambrone's currently off on a dig in Sudan (IIRC), ...
Is he still receiving a paycheque as a Toronto city councillor? His term of office doesn't expire until next week.
Has he actually left for Sudan yet? I think he's still chair of the TTC as well and I've seen him quoted in the past few days.
So, yes, but not right now? Tx
Has he actually left for Sudan yet? I think he's still chair of the TTC as well and I've seen him quoted in the past few days.
Quite right. My mistake. He`ll serve out his term, then he`s grabbing his archaeological stuff.
So, yes, but not right now? Tx
Basically. It`s a 'more likely than not, and not for a couple/few years anyway'.
With better Tory numbers in urban areas, a lot of places become viable simply because the winning plurality falls.
Has anyone crunched the numbers to see where we need the lowest pluralities based on current polling numbers?
Has anyone paid any attention to low-income earners? They're a growing demographic...
Paul Ferreira told me himself that he is running again in YS-W in 2011. He's got a real chance. Albanese is hanging on by the skin of her teeth, and is ripe for the boot.
And now his nomination/acclamation is basically official, although it was very difficult to see anything else happening, given what happened in 2007.
Candidates nominated to date:
Teresa Armstrong in London - Fanshawe
Cheri DiNovo in Parkdale - High Park
Paul Ferreira in York South - Weston
A contested nomination in Ottawa Centre (nomination meeting in early March), with all three candidates boasting solid community credentials:
2007 candidate Will Murray
Council of Canadians' campaigner Anil Naidoo
Social worker Erica Braun
Paul Pighin is the candidate for Davenport.
Paul is the newly-elected male chair of the ONDP Queer Caucus, and works in Cheri DiNovo's office.
Is Pighin actually the candidate or is he a candidate for the nomination? I ask because just two days ago i got an e-mail from Jonah Shein that he was running for the NDP NOMINATION in Davenport. I was under the impression that no nomination meeting had taken place yet.
