A lot of pundits will have egg on their faces
Nov 29, 2010 By-elections: news and views II
Including me. The streak continues.
All votes are in in Kamouraska-Temiscouata - PQ won by 196 votes
308 was expecting Chief to be over 60%. OTOH they knew their model did not handle star candidates well. Who is Lamoureux?
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308 was expecting Chief to be over 60%. OTOH they knew their model did not handle star candidates well. Who is Lamoureux?
Back to the drawing board
All votes are in in Kamouraska-Temiscouata - PQ won by 196 votes
57.65% turnout
While it continues to be close in Winnipeg, Lamoureux is running out of polls to bridge the gap. Over halfway now.
If you are referring to 308, probably not, or at least not with great fervour. Star candidates are rare and have much smaller effects in general elections.
Now Lamoureux is suddenly up by 80 votes - keep in mind that the advance polls are ofte n the last to report and who know who will dominate those.
I remember counting a giant (300? vote) advance poll with an incompetent DRO, poll clerk pair. Exquisite pain, and I missed the victory party when Olivia won.
Could Kevin Bordian's 1.9% in Vaughan be the lowest vote share the NDP has ever received in a federal riding in Ontario?
Now Lamoureux is suddenly up by 80 votes - keep in mind that the advance polls are ofte n the last to report and who know who will dominate those.
Now he leads by 310
Now Chief is down by 300 votes - this is looking bad
300+ votes now in Winnipeg. NDP Kevin needs a boost round about now.
I assume Lamoureux has a stronghold in the 25% of the riding that is his provincial seat - there may have been a chunk of that whihc just came in.
Why the hell would Winnipeg voters want to move to the right? They have nothing to gain by voting for the Liberal candidate.
If the NDP loses it will be a bad night for us - but its not that great a night for the Tories either. They were supposedly running a strong campaign in Winnipeg North and got 11% of the vote and Vaughan was a lot closer than people were predicting.
I suspect that the big Chief polls have yet to come in. Don't worry Iggy mania has not taken hold.
He has been winning in much more than 25% of the polls.
He has been gaining since about poll 10.
It looks like straw clutching time.
Why the hell would Winnipeg voters want to move to the right? They have nothing to gain by voting for the Liberal candidate.
Maybe people feel it's time for a change in government provincially, and they are taking out that frustration federally.
Maybe Lameroux ran a strong campaign and caught the NDP off guard.
Maybe Chief faced some backlash over Axworthygate.
Maybe there are more closet racists than we like to think who won't vote for an FN candidate. I doubt if there ever was any "Axworthygate" - and it seemed to me that there was really almost no story there unless you were a major political junkie like we are.
Maybe there are more closet racists than we like to think who won't vote for an FN candidate.
Could be. Anti-First Nations bigotry is a huge problem in Manitoba, even in a "progressive" city like Winnipeg.
The Conservatives are running below their core vote in Winnipeg North
The last few polls have cut the margin from 330 to 230 - there is still hope.
Green vote has evaporated in Winnipeg North & Vaughn
The Conservatives are running below their core vote in Winnipeg North
Maybe right-of-centre voters voted strategically for Lameroux.
At least we have one thing to cheer about!
Maybe they're voting tactically for the Liberals to stop Chief.
BTW, regarding Vaughan...does anybody know what the "United Party" thing is about?
Votes coming in very slooowww now in Winnipeg North
Lameroux just jumped ahead by about 400.
I think it's time to call this one.
This actually won't be a bad night for the Liberals - winning Wpg North is an upset and their chances in Vaughan were so heavily discounted that coming within 3% of Fantino will be seen as exceeding expectations.
Yup. You can spin this as victory for your guys, I am sure.
Lameroux just jumped ahead by about 400.
I think it's time to call this one.
You sound happy about that.
Have you come here to gloat?
I was congratulating you.
Where did this "Conservatives will win Vaughn by 10,000 votes" thing come from?
Lameroux just jumped ahead by about 400.
I think it's time to call this one.
You sound happy about that.
Excuse me? Where did you get the idea that I was cheering for the Liberals? Especially since Lameroux is a loudmouth.
What a rebuke. First municipal elections, now Winnipeg North. This is not a good barometer heading into the next provincial election.
Sellinger should indeed be concerned.
Looks like very low turnouts everywhere, even Vaughan! Winnipeg North is going to be under 30%. Did some stay home because Kevin Chief was a sure thing? And others because they weren't motivated to vote for a FN candidate?
Where did this "Conservatives will win Vaughn by 10,000 votes" thing come from?
Wouldn't that have been more likely if the NDP had hung onto its portion of the national poll share?
Lamoureaux leads by 382; Greens lead Pirates by 7 (130/153)
I doubt if people thought it was a sure thing. More likely its that in a byelection suddenly local candidates become all-important and like it or not Lamoureux was probably better known as a provincial MLA.
Cueball, it's a real good thing you aren't in my presence right now. I am pissed off enough about this that I would kick your ass if you said that crap in front of me.
in case anyone is counting the gap in Wpg NC is slowly closing with about 23 polls left it is down to 392. It could still be a squeaker yet. Although that is a bit of a steep hill yet.
And this thread just jumped the shark.
Lameroux just jumped ahead by about 400.I think it's time to call this one.
The Winnipeg Free Press has made it official.
BTW, regarding Vaughan...does anybody know what the "United Party" thing is about?
Second level spinoff from the PCs.
The gap just narrowed to 203 votes
make that 193 Could we be heading to recount territory?