Wouldn't that have been more likely if the NDP had hung onto its portion of the national poll share? Where did this "Conservatives will win Vaughn by 10,000 votes" thing come from?
There was evidently a strong anybody-but-Fantino push in a riding which is a traditional NDP wasteland anyways. In a close race, we often see marginal parties in that riding lose vote share, like the Conservatives did in Winnipeg. I don't think Vaugnh is really a national bellwether. Winnipeg North is far more concerning.