Which "gang" are you referring to?
I think that in the context of a federal election, things could change enormously. The byelection was fought in the context of local issues and blow-back about provincial and municipal politics. Its hard to say what might happen in a federal election campaign where for 35 days people are inundated with federal ads, federal leader, federal issues etc...and i suspect that the Tory vote in Winnipeg North would quickly bounce back to its usual 20% of so in that riding. Who knows? Last time there was a federal election in the context of negative NDP momentum in Manitoba - the party lost both Winnipeg North and Winnipeg Centre - but won 44 seats nationwide! That was 1988.