Let try this again. Assuming that between Clark and Abbot the ratio of 2nd choice votes is 20-80 (which is probably the high end of what Clark can expect), then she needs to be close enough to victory that Abbott can't catch her. The third place finisher cannot be higher than 30% and it is likely that both the third and fourth will add up to under 30%. So the highest amount of 2nd choices for Clark is going to be around 6%.
Clearly she needs to be 45% or better.
Another scenario that could happen at the last minute would be for DeJong people to go to Christy on the first count and then DeJong on the 2nd count which means that those votes won`t factor in BUT and this is where I am not certain how the voting goes - do the 3rd and 4th choices on any of DeJong ballots that vote for that many get counted and added to the other candidates.
It is a good thing that there is a computer program doing the calculations - I wouldn`t want to be trying to do them manually - this is also what is making this race so interesting because it is different from a traditional convention where you vote more than once.
If you vote is for Clark on the first "count" and she is not eliminated - that is your vote period! You're second and third preference only matters if your candidate gets eliminated.
The 3rd choice of a DeJong voter can easily matter. What if i mark my ballot as follows: DeJong 1, Abbott 2, Clark 3, Falcon 4. So DeJong gets eliminated after the first count, then my vote goes to Abbott, what if Falcon edges ahead of Abbot on the second count? Then my vote goes to Clark over Falcon.
I suspect that this Van Sun 'online' poll, based upon alot of other anecdotal evidence, is probably close to the mark in terms of the 2nd choices for both Clark and Abbott supporters (as well as Falcon and Deyong supporters).
IOW, most of Clark's 2nd choices will likely go to Abbott and most of Abbott's 2nd choices will likely go to Clark, etc. (irrespective of how party camps are "telling" supporters to mark their 2nd choices).
http://www.vancouversun.com/news/liberal-leadership/index.html
My prediction:
1st Ballot:
Clark
Abbott
Falcon
Deyong
2nd Ballot:
Clark
Abbott
Falcon
3rd Ballot:
Clark (by a cat's whisker)
Abbott
On line voting was a snap - log in - pin in PIN - select 2 or more - confirm - send - log out.
For anyone watching on TV tonight or who might be at the Convention Center - here`s how the evening is suppose to unfold - this was relayed to me by my MLA.
If there is a third count an announcement will be made at 6:10PM
If there are only two counts an announcement will be made at 6:20PM
If there is only one count the announcement will be made at 6:30PM.
So if there are no announcements at 6:10 or 6:20 we can probably assume that the worst has happened and that Christy has won on the first count.
So the winner will be known at 6:30PM
What I don`t know if the earlier announcements are made is if they will release the actual numbers or just who is off the ballot - it was felt that if Christy is at or below 40% after the first ballot her chances of winning decrease - above they are better.
Only time will tell.
Abbott, the next premier of BC is my predictition and Christie is no loser with all her popularity she could easily have her own media show.
I still can't decide whether from an NDP perspective I should be rooting for Falcon or Clark.
Christy Clark = Kim Campbell
I think a more apt comparison might be:
Christy Clark = Bill Vander Zalm
