NDP's Quebec strategy getting noticed in the media

I don't recall Duceppe demanding that the Clarity Act be repealed as a condition to support the coalition in 2008 - so i guess he doesn't give a hoot about the issue anymore either.

Stockholm wrote:

I don't recall Duceppe demanding that the Clarity Act be repealed as a condition to support the coalition in 2008 - so i guess he doesn't give a hoot about the issue anymore either.

ottawaobserver wrote:

Touché!

Both these comments reveal the depth of incomprehension that risks killing the NDP's hopes in Québec. Tom Mulcair (forget about his stand on Israel for the moment) would cringe if you said anything like this in his riding.

Let me explain something to you. [b]Duceppe is thrilled about the Clarity Act.[/b] It's more ammunition to prove that Canada will never recognize Québec's inalienable rights, and so separation is the only viable option. [b][i]The Bloc, and indeed the nation of Québec, do not recognize the Clarity Act.[/i][/b] We will never be bound by the Clarity Act. We have the right to self-determination, and it isn't subject to someone else (like, say, your) permission or blessing as to the quality of the question or the size of the majority.

If you haven't already heard this truth over the past decade or so, let me be the one to deliver the news to you.

The Clarity Act doesn't hurt the Bloc. It can only hurt the NDP, if it is ever stupid enough to retreat from the Sherbrooke Declaration and go back to Layton's pandering stand of January 2006, when he was more focused on Ontario votes than Québec ones.

Stockholm wrote:

The only thing that hurts the NDP (and just about everyone else in Canada) is any discussion of the Clarity Act whatsoever - whether for or against it.

Now you're getting warmer. Make sure Jack hears that, loud and clear.

Quote:

What the BQ would LOVE would be for some federalist party (ie: the NDP) to be stupid enough to reopen the topic and create a backlash in English Canada that would help create "winning conditions" for another referendum!

Bingo! got it!

Now, go back to where I said that the NDP, if it wants to really consolidate and gain strength in Québec, should (among other things) come up with some creative ideas about how asymmetrical federalism, with a pro-worker, pro-people, pro-social democratic bias, can work to the benefit of Quebeckers.

Duceppe doesn't need to talk about it.  They already own the issue.

Hey Stockholm. Please answer my question. Quit arguing your point. I've already agreed with you. I've told you what I think the NDP should be putting forward ([b]not[/b] "constitutional issues"). What do [i]you[/i] think they should be doing?

Perhaps as a sign of the times, a former PC that got 32% of the vote in Richmond-Arthabaska in 2006 refuses to close the door to a possible run for the NDP one day in Québec.

Anonymouse wrote:

Perhaps as a sign of the times, a former PC that got 32% of the vote in Richmond-Arthabaska in 2006 refuses to close the door to a possible run for the NDP one day in Québec.

Actually, Jean Landry was the Conservative candidate, not PC.  And he received 1% as an Independent candidate in the same riding in 2008, which doesn't indicate that he has a large personal following.

Krago wrote:

Anonymouse wrote:

Perhaps as a sign of the times, a former PC that got 32% of the vote in Richmond-Arthabaska in 2006 refuses to close the door to a possible run for the NDP one day in Québec.

Actually, Jean Landry was the Conservative candidate, not PC.  And he received 1% as an Independent candidate in the same riding in 2008, which doesn't indicate that he has a large personal following.

Landry is a PC. He ran as one in 2000 and says in the interview @ the link above that he has always been a PC not a Conservative, and that there is a big difference between the two.

bekayne wrote:

Segma poll in Gatineau & Hull-Aylmer:

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/le-droit/actualites/gatineau-outaouais/201103/21/01-4381722-le-bloc-passe-devant-a-gatineau.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_B4_en-manchette_572_section_POS1

Not very promising.  I had heard the Lib candidate was quite weak - too bad to hear he is well ahead of Francoise Boivin.

THat Segma poll was done two weeks ago before the election was even called and before all parties had candidates. They did not recite the names of the local candidates either - just party names.

Any word on how Jack did on Tout Le Monde En Parle last night?

Stockholm wrote:

I heard he did really well - but here a youtube of him on the show - judge for yourself.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LvY8804AKv0

Thanks Stockholm. I found Layton kind of boring and he struggled with the back & forth in French. His French talking points appeared less rehearsed and as a result, at times, his responses lacked the well-roundedness and punch that they often have in English. That being said, his French is much better than Harper and Ignatieff's. His French has also improved since 2008 and for that he deserves some credit. Even so, he's now challenging Duceppe so I couldn't help thinking (while watching him) who a francophone Quebecker would prefer representing them, an anglophone former Quebecker with passable French and a better-than-average accent, or a person from chez eux that can really speak and keep up with francophones in their native language. Canadian francophones tend to be much more forgiving of anglophone leaders' French than anglophones are of francophone leader's English, but I still have that doubt.

I think what Layton can claim coming out of that appearance is that he did well for a Québec anglophone of his generation, particularly one that has made his career in Toronto. He also came across as serious, not funny, which is a good thing in a political leader. He also got some air time for some of his points and ideas, and generally speaking the hosts were quite kind to him. If Mulcair ever became leader, it would be interesting to see how he would perform in one of these settings. His French is certainly up to the task, but does he have the same warmth or sympathetic character as Layton?

Hey Boom Boom, it sounds like not only is Randy Jones NOT the Liberal candidate in Manicouagan, but the Liberal candidate is an alleged racist that was a spokesperson for the Association for the Rights of Whites.

ETA: Maybe I should remove alleged. This sounds pretty serious.

Wow. The Liberals have gone two elections in a row now with seemingly racist anti-FN candidates.

Three QC non-incumbent seats where I expect the NDP to be more competitive in 2010 than 2008:

Marc-Aurèle-Fortin, Laval-les-Iles, Point-de-l'Île

Anonymouse wrote:

I don't know if this is a typo (e.g. meant to write Abitibi-Baie James...), I suspect it is, but in this article in Le Soleil, it says Mulcair has high hopes for the NPD to win in Manicouagan. 

According to the translation of the article, he's also "guaranteed" a win in Jonquiere.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/le-soleil/dossiers/elections-federales/201104/06/01-4387282-sondage-angus-reid-gesca-le-npd-bon-deuxieme-au-quebec.php

Beauport-Limoilou NDP candidate is all bravado link

"The aspiring NDP MP Raymond Côté is confident he can pull [the win] off"

and a much more modest Robin Aubin in Trois-Rivieres gives his spin on the poll results and says he hopes to see, 

Mulcair in the Mauricie again before the end of the campaign link

Beauport-Limoilou is a potential 4-way race in a seat weakly held by Conservative MP Sylvie Boucher, 

NDP received its provincial average score of 12%, it's best result for the Québec region, here

Trois-Rivieres is a potential 4-way race in a seat held by BQ MP Paule Brunelle

NDP scored well below its provincial average, with a score of 9% here, then again Mulcair is "guaranteeing" the NPD will win Jonquiere-Alma where it received less than 5% of the vote in 2008

Anonymouse wrote:

Mulcair is "guaranteeing" the NPD will win Jonquiere-Alma where it received less than 5% of the vote in 2008.

I heard him on TV recently talking up Claude Patry. Remarkable.

"I've never seen such a natural," Mulcair said of Patry." "He is a pillar for us in the region."

Anyone know how real this is?

Claude Patry sounds like the next Yvon Godin. Anyone that can dredge up some video or audio of the purported giant-killer will have my gratitude.

ETA: Here is a teaser

From the comments:

«[...] moi je suis comme un pitbull, je mords le bas de culottes et 
je ne lâche pas», déclare Claude Patry. 

Très bon citation

Translation: "me, I'm like a pitbull, I bite the bottom the of pants and I don't let go" declares Claude Patry. Very good quote.

and 

Une alternative tres intéressant étant donner que JP Blackburn--ne fait rien et croit que tout est gagné pour lui

Translation: "A very interesting alternative given that JP Blackburn -- does nothing and thinks that everthing's a done deal for him"

Is this it?

i thought Anne-Legace Dowson was going to run again in Westmount-Ville Marie...she was quite active on FB in terms of recruiting "friends" a few months ago.

It might be a desperate strategy in Quebec. But nationaly its certainly not a desperate strategy, stampeding people away from the NDP. So far, the media has bought into it totally.

I dont know about in Quebec, but if you think its a desperate strategy nationaly, I question your judgement about the situation in Quebec. Although, from a distance, it does look like the Liberal strategy has no traction with anyone in Quebec.

KenS wrote:

It might be a desperate strategy in Quebec. But nationaly its certainly not a desperate strategy, stampeding people away from the NDP. So far, the media has bought into it totally.

I dont know about in Quebec, but if you think its a desperate strategy nationaly, I question your judgement about the situation in Quebec. Although, from a distance, it does look like the Liberal strategy has no traction with anyone in Quebec.

Feel free to question my judgment :) I think it is a desperate strategy for the Liberals whether it is effective or not. It just says that the Liberals are completely out of tricks, and since the only thing they really care about is winning power, it is them getting down on their knees and making the last minute appeal. The word "desperate" is not my own. It is the way a Liberal strategist described it to me.

I'm not sure how many times the Liberals can go to the well with that holed bucket though, Ken.  I think that Jack may have blunted it at least somewhat (he said, mixing his metaphors) by proactively declaring that a real strategic vote is a vote for the NDP - even as the Liberal meme was just getting started.

Certainly the Liberal strategic voting meme has had diminishing returns election after election after election since its high point in 1993.

Anonymouse

Where is Mulcair traveling to these days - that should give us an indication which ridings are in contention for the NPD?

While Mulcair is modestly naming only five target ridings outside Outremont, The NDP's leading candidate in the Quebec City region, Raymond Cote, wants to expand the list: "he believes the 2011 vote will be marked by the election of the first New Democrat elected in the Quebec region. He gives himself the best chance of achieving this among the NDP candidates in the capital."

Another example of a 2008 star ("the only New Democrat in the region to get more than 6,000 votes") moving to a stronger riding. Maybe it will work?