NDP campaign in Toronto

Cash has an uphill battle against the Liberal (Mario Silva). Cash is pretty white hipster urbanista but he's been campaigning for like 2 years now. He has oddly decided to engage the provincial Liberals (as if they are the same party as the feds) around the electric train debate in his campaign literature.

I'd love it if he did given that Silva is a member of the anti-Palestine committee.

It always amazes me the popularity of the Liberals in Ontario and also the way in which Ontarians don't seem to know or even remotely care about the politics of Canadians in other regions of the country (except for maybe ocassionally Québec). 

I would be remiss if I didn't toot my horn for Mike Sullivan in York South–Weston. While it's not as close as Nash's race, the 28% Sullivan got last time made it one of the better-performing non-incumbent ridings. Tonks has been phoning it in for years, and votes down anything approaching progressive. He broke with most of his party on Bill C-389 (which continues his dislike for any kind of queer rights), and voted against Gerard Kennedy's war resisters bill. Given that Kennedy is a constituent of Tonks's, that act may explain this:

mdsullivan Mike Sullivan

Something's missing at Gerard Kennedy's house...he does live in York South Weston, doesn't he? http://yfrog.com/h0qswcaj

(A sign popped up afterwards).

I am hoping that a very active Sullivan campaign will punish Tonks's taking the riding for granted. We'll need the Tories to play the useful idiot role, though, for Mike to prevail.

That's a great case for a PR system, LP. It just shows that the feudal riding system and talk of regional interests is less important in a time when people move around and are well connected to trans-territorial communities.

It's also a great example of Toronto's fucked up development that is focused solely on building homes for rich people.

Yes Rachel is a good candidate and very capable of holding onto the 9% the campaign team achieved in 2008 and probably will crack the 10%.  I'm not sure Christine Innis has what it takes to defeat Olivia yet but it will remain close.  They both lost 5% of the vote share last time but even another drop in general support is unlikely to affect their campaigns in a serious manner.  The interesting vote to watch will be the conservative vote and whether it maintains the 2008 increase.  In the same manner you point out above LP, voters here can also vote their conscience because the conservatives are not a factor.   

I agree that the machine is not what it used to be and I suppose that should be surprising since it is still Ianno's machine.  Trinity-Spadina is a shifting community and I think there is more losses here for the liberals and ndp if they don't shift their focus and style of campaigning. 

Doug - "The Conservatives seem to be doing better in Toronto than they have previously and that could be a good thing for New Democrats."

That depends on how much of that conservative vote is new voters who are conservative supporters or disenchanted liberals who aren't ready to go back to the liberals. I think Ignatieff has failed to convince many people that the liberals are able to return to their old power status.  One thing my neighbours told me in the last election was that many of the older generation won't vote other than traditional liberal or ndp but that a large number of those older voters have left or will be leaving soon from the riding. Younger generation voters aren't adhering to their parents voting choice. Where that vote goes is uncertain. The question still remains as to which party can shift their focus in elections and between elections to influence the new voters and younger generation voters in the community.

Where the Cons are doing better in Toronto, it definitely does not assist the NDP, at least not directly in those ridings, one of which is mine.
One side of the riding has blue signs in force, in the other, red. That's Dryden's York Centre, and I guess in Volpe's Eglinton-Lawrence it is similar. Weakening Liberals in financially more comfortable central Toronto, it's hard to see even how that can contribute to NDP increase nationally, except that this accelerates the demise of the Liberals by maybe toppling some in their last bastion.

I now understand that if I think the most important issue in the election is that I think Elizabeth May deserves more publicity - I'm supposed to vote Green. So who do I vote for if I'm actually concerned about environmental issues?

Lord Palmerston wrote:

Stockholm: I know electoral reform activists who are voting Green as a protest against her exclusion and the FPTP system.  But i think their impact will be minimal.

And they are likely Greens anyway. We have some Greens and some Liberals in Fair Vote Canada, and even Hugh Segal and a few other democratic conservatives. Non-partisan electoral reformers would be more likely to vote NDP as a vote for proportional representation.

Unless they vote for Carolyn Bennett to reward her for being a pro-PR Liberal, or vote Liberal in Don Valley West, Eglinton—Lawrence or York Centre to stop a Conservative win (most electoral reformers don't like strategic voting but will do it if absolutely necessary).

petercassidy - "This is the sort of messaging that makes many of us so critical of "strategic voting"- Vote your conscience sees to be code for doing your god given duty- Liberals to vote for Liberals and-Greens to vote for Greens. freeing yourself from the sin of voting NDP, a sin that can only be forgiven if done to prevent the greater evil, a Conservative winning."

Not sure what exactly this means but...

There is no sin voting NDP ever, anywhere, anytime. It's simple, if you support the Green Party then you should vote Green because it's important that the vote be visible and counted. When you vote strategically you don't accomplish anything when the ruling goverment will either be liberal or conservative or a continued unspoken, unadmitted alliance between them which we've had since 2006. The only way PR in any form will come to reality is for the pluralistic vote to remain visible. When the Green and/or NDP vote is reduced because of strategic voting then the argument remains that voters have no problem with the two larger parties and that FPTP works as a true reflection of what voters really want.

George Victor - "The likelihood of deconstruction of the social welfare system if Steve wins hints at necessity."

It is the growing strength of the NDP and Greens in the last two elections that have prevented a majority government either way. The liberals dealt with the last deficit on the backs of working people, the poor, and social programs, and did nothing about corporate responsibility. They'll do it again. Strategic voting risks a liberal majority because it still contaminates the ridings where the conservatives aren't a factor.

Petercassidy - "Mimeguy, you are the one who said that in Trinity Spadina people could vote their conscience because the conservatives are not a factor. I usually hear that phrase used by strategic voting sites in ridings held by the NDP  such as Trinity Spadina, where we have a good decent person, MP Olivia Chow, who may lose her seat and "strategic voting"  people say that does not bother me, I am going to "vote my conscience" . Presumably if this  good decent person, Olivia Chow,  could lose to a Conservative, they would not follow their conscience, they would "hold their nose" they would do what they know is morally and ethically wrong, and they would vote NDP. Is that not your essential argument that in Trinity Spadina you do not have to "hold your nose" , vote against your conscience and vote for Olivia Chow, you can vote your conscience by voting Green?

And the Green argument for  "voting your conscience" in Trinity Spadina, voting Green, an argument you touched on in talking of how Rachel could crack the 10% seems to be that "voting your conscience" voting Green means money, lots and lots of money for the Greens,."

Hi Peter. Let's be clear about what I personally believe.

1) I believe people should vote for the party they believe in or the candidate they feel will be the strongest advocate for what they believe in, which may in fact be an independent.

2) I object to strategic voting because it doesn't work. You can't manipulate people's vote. Strategic voting uses the politics of fear approach which clearly failed in 2008 and will certainly fail again. Regardless of whether a liberal might be capable of defeating a conservative in a riding should never stop a person from supporting the NDP if that is the party of their choice.

3) The 10% rule for reimbursement is a housekeeping factor and there is nothing wrong with making it a target. If you can get 60% of campaign expenses back then why not make it a preliminary target for growth. Taking a very narrow quote, one blog entry, is disengenuous. Anyone who reads the TS Green website can see that the 10% threshhold is a minor entry and consideration.

4) The fact that Olivia Chow is a decent person is NOT the issue. If the community decides that Rachel Barney should replace Olivia Chow as the local MP then they would still have a good decent person in office. In fact your implication that a potential conservative candidate could not also be a good decent person is offensive. The issue is whether the community in Trinity Spadina wants to be represented by the NDP and the fact that this is considered a swing riding clearly indicates that this is in constant question.

5) Parliament needs a strong ndp and green presence. To give that vote to the liberals when you don't believe in their party is a disaster for democracy and perpetuates the present dysfunction of the system.

knownothing wrote:

The Liberals are in free-fall. Toronto will be the last to go but it will go. The NDP voters have been holding their noses and voting Liberal for long enough. It is time for the Libs to return the favour.

The Liberals hold 15 seats in Toronto that will 100% be held either by them or the Conservatives on May 2. Seats the NDP has 0% chance in

wilf wrote:

In Toronto, the only surviving Liberals are Carolyn Bennett, Dan McTeague and Jim Karygiannis.

Hmmm...what about Gerard Kennedy?  I love Peggy &  have her sign on my lawn, but she lost to Gerard by more than 3,300 votes last time (about the same # of votes that went to the Green candidate).  

I was invited to participate in a virtual town hall by the Gerrard Kennedy campaign last sunday.  For some reason, they think I live in that ridding.  It's the second Liberal virtual town hall I've been invited to, and I'd love to know how I got on whatever list they are using.

Are they targeting NDP members?  Have they used some facebook group or something to collect my name?   I suspect the latter.

aaaaaaaNNYWAys... I listened in for an hour.   Poor Kennedy was walking this tight rope, trying to attack the NDP, but not alienate the NDP supporters he knows he needs. 

They kept asking during the virtual town hall who I was likely to support.  I hit "2" for Peggy Nash twice.   When my turn came up to ask my question of Mr. Kennedy, there was a glitch.  Maybe it had something to do with my 519 area code.  Or something.