A whole new game: the NPD (Quebec NDP) and its new MPs II

NDPMajority wrote:

If Jack Layton were to jump to provincial politics, he would literally have the power to turn Quebec into a one-party Quebec Solidaire stare next election there.

I wonder what the impact of painting Quebec orange will have on the provincial scene. Time enough to think about that later.

Out of 75 ridings in Quebec, the NDP has 12 local campaign offices, says LaPresse.

Can anyone name them?

I see that Jean-François Larose apparently won the debate at the CEGEP in L'Assomption.

In the greater Quebec City region, Raymond Côté and Denis Blanchette are in their third campaigns, Anne-Marie Day (co-chair of the federal NDP Policy Committee) in her second, Annick Papillon in her first. But the nine candidates include four Master's students.

A Rimouski Blogger publishes in the local paper last Friday 

Quote:

I like Guy Caron, who worked with me or with whom I worked. But it depends. Good boy, honest and a worker, but it bothers me that he has no campaign. No money. It appears that Jack has decided that eastern Quebec is not important. But I like Jack too. A few more votes will not affect his party, right? It will not govern. But if he held the balance of power between conservatives and liberals, it would save us from a majority right-wing government. Right?

 

But with a 13 point in Quebec and a 24 point lead in Montreal, there will be more.

Anonymouse wrote:

Rosemount-La-Petite-Patrie

Outremont

Gatineau

Hull-Aylmer

Québec City

Hochelaga

Jeanne-Le-Ber

LaSalle-Émard

Papineau

Westmount-Ville Marie

Val D'Or?

???

I hope the 12th campaign office is in Sherbrooke or Drummondville?

Anonymouse wrote:

Rosemount-La-Petite-Patrie

Outremont

Gatineau

Hull-Aylmer

Québec City

Hochelaga

Jeanne-Le-Ber

LaSalle-Émard

Papineau

Westmount-Ville Marie

Val D'Or?

???

Based on some internal Bloc and NDP polls, how people of each riding voted last time, the local candidate profile, here are (in kind of order), the first ridings who could elect a NDP MP:

- Outremont
- Gatineau
- Hull-Aylmer
- Jeanne-Le-Ber
- Wesmount-Ville-Marie
- Abbiti-Baie-James
- Notre-Dame-de-Grâce
- Drummond
- St-Lambert
- Brossard - La Prairie

And there is a lot of realistic NDP picks up: Ahunstic, Alfred Pellan, Argenteuil-Papineau, Beauharnois, Berthier-Maskinongé, Beauport-Limoilou, Brome-Missisquoi, Charlesbourg-Haute-St-Charles, Châteauguay, Compton-Stanstead, Hochelaga, Jonquière-Alma, La Pointe-de-l'Ile, Lac-St-Louis, Lasalle-Émard, Laval, Laval-Les-Îles, Longueuil-Pierre-Boucher, Louis-Hébert, Marc-Aurèle-Fortin, Montcalm, Mont Royal, Pierrefonds-Dollard, Québec, Repentigny, Pontiac, Portneuf, Rimouski, Rivière-des-Mille-Îles, Rivière-du-Nord, St-Bruno, Rosemont-La-Petite-Patrie, St-Bruno, St-Hyacinthe, St-Jean, Shefford, Trois-Rivières, Verchères-Las Patriotes.

So from 10 to 48.

A friend of mine working for the Bloc campaign told me that they were in real danger in St-Lambert and when I went to the Montreal NDP rally, a volunteer whispered to another volunteer that their internal poll show the NDP at 31,8% and the Bloc at 30,2%. This poll was made in the middle of last week.

Anonymouse wrote:

The NDP did very well in Saint Lambert in 2008 after the canceled byelection. Unfortunately, their candidate from the time (Richard Marois), is not running this time.

Richard Marois was a really strong candidate. I've meet Sadia Groguhé at the rally, I've look at her resumé and she is a good candidate.

samuelolivier wrote:

Anonymouse wrote:

Rosemont-La-Petite-Patrie

Outremont

Gatineau

Hull-Aylmer

Québec City

Hochelaga

Jeanne-Le-Ber

LaSalle-Émard

Papineau

Westmount-Ville Marie

Val D'Or?

???

Based on some internal Bloc and NDP polls, how people of each riding voted last time, the local candidate profile, here are (in kind of order), the first ridings who could elect a NDP MP:

That was a list of the 12 NDP campaign offices. And I speculated that the 12th might be Sherbrooke or Drummondville. Then again, I'm not sure there's one in Val D'Or either.

André Arthur, on a visit to Maxime Bernier's office, says Québeckers are supporting Layton because they pity him because he is sick and they want to console him with their vote.

Stay classy Arthur.

Wilf Day wrote:

Today's Angus Reid poll looks more plausible for Quebec: "In Quebec, the NDP are at 38 per cent, replacing the traditional front-runners, the Bloc Québécois. The Bloc are second with 29 per cent, the Liberals at 16 per cent and Conservatives at 14 per cent."

I make that 14 Bloc MPs, 2 Lib, 2 Con, and 56 NDP.

Of those 56 projected, I'll give nine back to the Bloc due to projected narrow losses to weak NDP candidates: Verchères--Les Patriotes, Chambly--Borduas (student), Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot (student), Rivière-des-Mille-Îles (student), Sherbrooke (student), Argenteuil--Papineau--Mirabel (parachute), Berthier--Maskinongé (parachute), Saint-Maurice--Champlain (phantom), and Haute-Gaspésie--La Mitis--Matane--Matapédia (phantom), and one back to the Liberals due to a narrow loss to a weak NDP candidate: Saint-Léonard--Saint-Michel (candidate has no bio on NDP website).

But the projector shows Claude Patry losing narrowly to Jean-Pierre Blackburn, which seems doubtful. This poll has the Conservatives so low that no one survives but Maxime Bernier and André Arthur.

Still, 47 NDP MPs, and 23 Bloc. Plus Dion, Cotler and Pacetti.

That's the thing about those predictors models; not all increases in vote will be uniform, nor all decreases in vote. It will be less (decreases in %) for incumbants I suspect

Wilf Day wrote:

But the projector shows Claude Patry losing narrowly to Jean-Pierre Blackburn, which seems doubtful. This poll has the Conservatives so low that no one survives but Maxime Bernier and André Arthur.

And Andre Arthur may only "count" because of the inadequacy of projection models viz. independent candidates...

I am sure that many people had hoped for the NDP to make a historic breakthrough and get 50 to 60 seats, maybe even 75.  However most people like me believed that they would not take more than a half a dozen seats in Quebec and that was hopeful.  If Quebec voters take themselves to the polls to vote NDP then 90 to a 100 seats is not unrealistic.  I am very hopeful that the Quebec people understand the stakes and it sure looks like a lot of them hate Harper enough to roll the orange dice.  The presence of former Cabinet Ministers lends credibility to the potential front benches of an NDP government. Everyone knows back benchers are back benchers and if that is what you have running in your riding you vote for them to get Mulcair and Layton into government. 

Sovereignists love to invoke the mythical ROC.  Most people understand that no region of Canada will allow a federation that has both a federal government and 13 members in its constitution to devolve into any constitutional two state arrangement. If you secede you don't get to pick who you negotiate with and I expect every Premier to have something to say and there will be no mythical ROC at any post independence bargaining table.  Unless you think a very weakened federal government is capable of dominating the situation.  

 

 

 

Unionist wrote:

[url=http://www.lelacstjean.com/%C3%89lections/2011-04-28/article-2462543/Vot... Khadir to CEGEP students: "Vote either Bloc or NDP, just get the Conservatives out!"[/url]

 

  P.S. I believe it was in CPC MP and cabinet minister Jean-Pierre Blackburn's riding that he held the press conference to say this.

Bloc D P

Northern Shoveler wrote:

I am sure that many people had hoped for the NDP to make a historic breakthrough and get 50 to 60 seats, maybe even 75.  However most people like me believed that they would not take more than a half a dozen seats in Quebec and that was hopeful.  If Quebec voters take themselves to the polls to vote NDP then 90 to a 100 seats is not unrealistic.  I am very hopeful that the Quebec people understand the stakes

 

Here's hoping,

I have long (30 years)  been a skeptic, from working there myself, esp. those western Montreal ridings where this breakthrough is now expected

although Pratte gives a decent analysis:

 http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/plus-a-change-whats-driving-quebecs-surprise-swoon-for-jack/article2004454/page2/

 ... when the campaign started, Mr. Duceppe seemed poised to increase the number of seats held by his party. But his campaign has lacked enthusiasm. The leader himself looked tired of repeating the same old lines. His main argument - "Only the Bloc can prevent a Conservative majority" - seemed patently illogical. If a Tory majority was so dangerous to Quebec, why had the Bloc defeated the minority government in the first place?

So Quebeckers seemed ready to look at an alternative. Except in some regions of the province, Conservatives were not an option. Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff appeared to many - unfairly - as a disconnected intellectual. Then there were Mr. Layton and the NDP. The party's lone MP in the province, Thomas Mulcair, had done a lot of work to adjust the party's policies to Quebec's sensitivities. Mr. Layton's personality did the rest.

[...] By abandoning the Bloc in droves, Quebeckers are signalling their readiness to get back on the ice of federal politics. But, of course, they will play tough. They will complain about not having enough ice time. They will criticize the referee's decisions. But that's just part of who we are - across Canada.

 

On ne peut empêcher un coeur d'aimer

"Au Québec, depuis quelques jours, la Jack-o-manie a atteint des proportions absurdes, au point où des dizaines d'internautes et de lecteurs écrivent pour dire: On s'en fout que les candidats du NPD ne fassent pas campagne, on aime mieux un poteau qu'un voleur ou un député usé que l'on ne voit jamais."

In this column Vincent Marrisal basically says, unless people don't go out to vote, the NDP wave in Québec seems unstoppable.