PQ MNAs Quit

M. Spector wrote:

Quote:

The NDP surge has been interpreted by many as an indication of an incipient realignment of Quebec politics, long polarized around the national question, along left-right lines as well.

Did the voters' rejection of the Bloc spell trouble for the Parti québécois, which in recent months seemed headed for government in the next election, polling well in advance of the governing Liberals? Some péquistes have voiced concern that the party could be losing support to Québec solidaire, the new left pro-independence party whose sole MNA, Amir Khadir, has been rated Quebec's most popular politician owing to his outspoken attacks on the neoliberal politics of the capitalist parties, the Liberals, the PQ and the smaller right-wing Action démocratique du Québec (ADQ).

[url=http://lifeonleft.blogspot.com/2011/06/behind-those-resignations-from-pa... on the Left[/url]

On one hand, QS did get a boost, from 12% to 17%, in a recent (barely) post-PQ-crisis poll (PQ: 26% (down), PLQ: 27% (up), ADQ: 15% (down)).

On the other hand, much to my dismay, people seem rather enthusiastic about the possibility of a Legault-led party. A poll done in late May yielded 37% for a merged ADQ-Legault vehicle, 29% for the PQ and 19% for the PLQ (QS results do not appear in the article). In addition, in the first poll I've cited, 55% of respondents said they would favor the creation of a new party. Apparently, three neoliberal parties is not enough—a fourth one is needed...

There is obviously a massive, massive vaccum opening up in Quebec politics. Several insane (but looking at Quebec politics, believable) aspects associated this poll. 

- No political party owns more than 27% of the vote. I've never seen that in any Canadian political poll ever.
- Parties that own fewer than 3 seats in the Assembly rack up 45% of the vote.
- Charest is in the lead despite commanding a train-wreck of a government mired in scandals with an approval rating hovering around 17 to 30%. 
- Quebec voters almost don't even care who the alternative is. The Socialist Khadir and the Conservative Legault are both positioned to make history. The problem for QS is that Legault's not-party, if it does organize into one, is likely to have more big names running, more financial backing and more media support. 

17% is easily a record level of support for QS. A month ago they polled 12. A year ago they were lucky to get 10. 

scathing assessment of Marois leadership:

http://fr-ca.actualites.yahoo.com/blogues/la-chronique-de-normand-lester/une-combine-patinoire-hockey-et-l-avenir-du-195614865.html

La décision d'appuyer le gouvernement dans cette affaire est une erreur stratégique de la part de Pauline Marois. Pierre Curzi, Louise Beaudoin et Lisette Lapointe ont aussi claqué la porte du parti parce qu'ils trouvaient qui le parti sous Pauline Marois était trop mou sur la question de la souveraineté. Le Colisée m'est que « la goutte qui a fait déborder le vase. », comme le dit le cliché abondamment répété depuis 24 heures.

Tous les élus du PQ sont maintenant forcés de prendre position sur ce qui est devenu une question de fond. Le député de Nicolet-Yamaska, Jean-Martin Aussant, a rejoint ses trois collègues démissionnaires.  D'autres députés pourraient suivre et ainsi remettre en cause l'autorité de la chef péquiste malgré l'appui extraordinaire de 93 % des militants du parti, obtenu lors du dernier congrès du PQ.

Certains au PQ veulent utiliser l'occasion pour provoquer un changement de garde et un changement de génération. L'avenir du PQ n'est pas lié à Pauline Marois. Bien sûr, elle a bien mérité de la Patrie, mais il ne faut pas oublier que, selon les sondages, la souveraineté est actuellement plus populaire que la dirigeante du PQ. On va voir dans les prochains jours si le leadership de Pauline Marois est irrémédiablement compromis dans cette affaire.

lagatta wrote:

The only one of those three who could possibly join QS is Pierre Curzi, who has a more progressive, trade-unionist background.

Maybe the prospect of Curzi joining QS is not so far-fetched after all... See this interview in L'autjournal, in which Curzi endorses the idea of establishing a constituent assembly to determine Québec's political future (as advocated by QS) and declares himself "open to anything"...

I think that's Lucien Bouchard's official position these days too. He sees the implementation of a more 'competitive' (ie neo-liberal) economic programme as the biggest priority for Quebec, and has suggested that the sovereignty movement is a distraction from that goal. Bouchard has also criticized Marois over what he perceives as the PQ's lack of respect for multiculturalism and religious tolerance.

DaveW wrote:

can Marois recover?...

let's hope not....

Francois Legault's neo-liberal coalition hardly offers a better alternative.

If the hope is for an "Orange Wave" echo that sweeps Quebec Solidaire to power than I agree wholeheartedly, however the polling to date suggests that the main beneficiaries of the PQ divisions are Legault and the CAQ (blah) or Charest and the Liberals (also blah). Quebec can do so much better.

QS has a much more radical image than the NDP. It probably holds them back. Not that that's a bad thing

It's really unfortunate that this vacuum exists in Quebec politics. If Legault is able to open a right-focused coalition of federalists and sovereigntists, then the same should be possible on the left. This is notably what we could now say of the federal NDP in Quebec. But QS alone would not be able to accomplish this.

If QS is unable to benefit from this momentum on the left in the next Quebec election, I wonder if there would be any appetite to re-create a provincial chapter of the NDP from scratch - and maybe invite QS into the fold - rather than a possibly infinite wait for QS to become the party that fills the vacuum.

This is a week old, and as depressing as anything else I've read this week:  Why a new party in Quebec is already a front-runner

It seems like Quebec may soon have as many as six parties:

QS - leftwing, sovereignist

PQ - wishy-washy on sovereignty but more in favour of it than Legault (see below) and wishy-washy on everything else

Legault's party - centre right and wishy-washier on sovereignty than the PQ (which is already quite WW)

ADQ - rightwing and vaguely autonomist

Quebec Liberals - centre right and unenthusiastically federalist

Possible new party by dissident PQ MNAs - staunchly sovereignist and no apparent other policies at all

...in short there is something for everyone - EXCEPT still nothing for progressive people who do NOT place any priority on sovereignty (unless you count the Parti Vert du Quebec).

Bärlüer wrote:

lagatta wrote:

The only one of those three who could possibly join QS is Pierre Curzi, who has a more progressive, trade-unionist background.

Maybe the prospect of Curzi joining QS is not so far-fetched after all... See this interview in L'autjournal, in which Curzi endorses the idea of establishing a constituent assembly to determine Québec's political future (as advocated by QS) and declares himself "open to anything"...

Curzi now describes himself as an "interesting prey" for Québec solidaire...

There is a slight (actually not so slight) difference between those two cases. In Ontario in 1990 the NDP was elected to a majority government just as a massive recession was starting and they then got thrashed in the next election because people blamed them for the global recession and for not fulfilling promises. The Quebec NDP MPs elected last month are not in power - instead they have the relatively easy task of being the opposition to a Conservative government which is ridiculously unpopular in Quebec. They don't have to deliver anything in terms of laws or governance, all they have to do is represent their constituents by opposing Harper - easy-peasy

They can try...but realistically, barring some massive national unity related crisis that blows everything to smithereens - I think the NDP has no where to go but UP in Quebec. First of all, by all accounts the new MPs elected are not proving to be "green" or "gaffe-prone". In fact I saw Joel-Denis Bellavance of La Presse say on CTV that on the contrary the Quebec media were remarked that the calibre of the people elected as NDP MPs was vastly higher than the crooks and hacks that got swept in with the 1984 Mulroney sweep and also far superior to the dead-heads who got swept in with Lucien Bouchard and the BQ in 1993.

Its conceivable that the Tories manage to totally supplant the Liberals as the default party of really hard-core federalists (such that they even exit anymore in Quebec) - in which case they MIGHT try to attack the NDP for being "soft on separatism" and try to win a couple of West Island seats from the NDP - but if the Tories do that - it could kill off their 5 Quebec MPs from totally francophone ridings. The BQ is basically DEAD. I don't think they will even run candidates in the next election. The PQ (which essentially bankrolls the BQ) has bigger fish to fry than to spend millions trying to prop up a federal wing that can't win seats anymore. That 23% BQ vote from may 2 will have to go somewhere. Will it go Tory? NOOOO. Will it go Liberal (under the likely leadership of Justin Trudeau)? NOOOO. That leaves the NDP.

About the only (extremely unlikely scenario) where the NDP would have losses in Quebec would be if someday in the future Layton retires and gets succeeded by a unilingual anglo from out west who is tone deaf about Quebec and the Liberals pick someone with good Quebec nationalist credentials as their new leader - not likely.

[url=http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1013827--support-for... for Quebec separatists sinks: poll[/url]

Quote:

OTTAWA—Quebec’s separatist party has slumped to second place, according to an opinion poll released Thursday, after suffering several high-profile defections that helped the Liberals jump into the lead.

The separatist Parti Quebecois had held a comfortable lead until recently over the Liberals, who have been battered by allegations of wrongdoing. The PQ was widely expected to win the next election and then press for independence for the Canadian province.

But Thursday’s Crop poll for La Presse newspaper showed support for Quebec’s Liberal Party rose to 35 per cent, up 12 points from a month earlier. Voting intentions for the PQ fell to 29 per cent from 34 per cent in May.

The Internet poll was done June 15 to 20.

“If there was an election last week, the Liberals would probably have won a majority,” pollster Youri Rivest is quoted as saying in La Presse.

A [url=http://rabble.ca/babble/qu%C3%A9bec/charest-gona-trigger-election-fall]snap election[/url] must be looking mighty tempting for Charest right now...

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

I hope when Layton retires the new leader will come from Quebec. There are many to choose from and people should not just assume Mulcair-- I think there may be some better choices.

1) Agree with you about Mulcair. I can't think of any good reason that he should be leader other than the media says he should be (which from what I've seen, the person the media backs to lead a party is generally the person who should not, but that's beside the point) and I haven't even seen any indications that he would want it

2) Would a leader from Quebec be necessary to connect from Quebec? Layton has spent the last few decades of his life in Toronto, and Harper was able to break through in Quebec in 2006 despite the anti-Quebec sentiment in the Conservative party. Can a leader from Quebec connect with Western Canadians, or would an NDP-government elected primarily in Ontario and Quebec provoke screams of "Western Alienation!!!!"? Why couldn't someone like Charlie Angus or Nathan Cullen connect with Quebec and the whole rest of the country?

Thread drift!

Has there been any more rumblings about more P.Q. M.N.A.s leaving the party?

Is there a limit as to how many have to leave for Marois to realize that she has to go?

curds on fries?

I get the sense QS doesn't want to sully itself with such mainstream leftists like Curzi. They only want the hardcore of the hardcore