I would not be surprised if the by-election is held off as long as constitutionally possible, which I believe is 6 months (?)
Potential NDP candidates that come to mind: Peter Tabuns, Paula Fletcher, Marilyn Churley, Francis Lankin. Thoughts on who should fill in these monolithic shoes? Perhaps dipper friendly local activists like Cathy Crowe or Rick Smith?
I had Churley in mind. She lives in the riding I believe?
I had Churley in mind. She lives in the riding I believe?
I believe she lives in the east end, but not sure if its in T-D. I do know Jack and her were tremendously close and that Marilyn considered Jack her mentor. Whether or not her retirement and unsuccessful runs in 2006 and 2008 in Beaches-East York will be held against her, I don't know.
She is a Justice of the Peace right now, is she not.
There is also the possibility that the NDP leadership is won by someone who does not currently have a seat in the House of Commons - in which case Toronto-Danforth would be the logical place for that person to run.
She is a Justice of the Peace right now, is she not.
Yes. I like her a lot, I'm just not sure if the riding's a good fit. Paula Fletcher, maybe? If Brian Topp wants to make the leap into elected office, this would be the time and place to do it.
Also, let's hope the party doesn't take this one as a gimmee. Fletcher came close to losing her seat which shares the same boundaries in the municipal election, and even though Jack made it a bastion, much of that is non-transferable. It could be close.
She is a Justice of the Peace right now, is she not.
Yes. I like her a lot, I'm just not sure if the riding's a good fit. Paula Fletcher, maybe? If Brian Topp wants to make the leap into elected office, this would be the time and place to do it.
Also, let's hope the party doesn't take this one as a gimmee. Fletcher came close to losing her seat which shares the same boundaries in the municipal election, and even though Jack made it a bastion, much of that is non-transferable. It could be close.
dupe, sorry
Most of the names mentioned in the OP have been around for awhile, are there any younger prospects for the riding?
Yes. I like her (Marilyn Churley) a lot, I'm just not sure if the riding's a good fit.
HOw can the riding not be a "good fit" for Churley??? It is exactly the riding she represnted as a provincial MPP from 1990 to 2006!
I think this by-election could be interesting. Layton was elected here four times and it was only the last election that he won over 50% of the vote, reaching 60%. While the NDP are the front runners in this riding if they do not have a well known candidate the Liberals have the potenital of picking up the riding. This is Bob Rae's neighbouring riding and he probably already has candidates in mind. The Liberals may run a well known candidate who will run in their leadership race, it may be someone who has never sought office before or a failed federal or provincial candidate. Gerrard Kennedy's old riding isn't too far away...
Yes. I like her (Marilyn Churley) a lot, I'm just not sure if the riding's a good fit.
HOw can the riding not be a "good fit" for Churley??? It is exactly the riding she represnted as a provincial MPP from 1990 to 2006!
It was a good fit. I think she would be a weakened candidate there now, in part because of her failed bids next door in B-EY in '06 and '08..
What about Barbara Warner? She lost the provincial nomination in Toronto-Danforth to Peter Tabuns in 2006, and seems really keen on being elected as an NDP MP or MPP.
I think that in the current political climate there is almost (but not quite) zero chance of anyone other than the NDP winning any byelection in T-D. That riding has become an NDP stronghold at every level and there will be no shortage of high calibre people wanting to run for the NDP there.
It is also the opportunity to bring in another "ministrable" MP to the caucus. Party members in the riding would do well to think about that closely when they choose.
x
Just curious - how many folks participating in this thread live in Toronto Danforth? (Edited to say: upon rereading, that question sounds almost accusatory, but I don't mean it to - I'm actually curious because I'm relatively new to the riding and was sincerely wondering how many other babblers live here. I discovered so many babblers who lived in Davenport when I lived there!)
Now that the riding is really winnable, it could just be a great time for maybe a local activist woman or person of colour who lives in the riding to run. I've only lived here for a year and a half now, but I don't think I'd be thrilled to have someone with no ties to the riding or city to be parachuted in, like the suggestion above of whomever wins the leadership running in this seat. I'd much rather be able to vote for someone local, and I'd love it if the NDP was serious about running women and people of colour in winnable ridings.
I figure that if someone without a seat becomes a leader, they should do what Jack did - run in a by-election that wasn't held by the NDP already and actually win the party another seat.
Stephen Lewis
Jack didn't actually run in a by-election at all. He won the NDP leadership in January 2003 and was first elected in the June 2004 general election in Toronto-Danforth. The difference though is that when he won the leadership in Jan. 2003 it was clear that there would be a general election in about a year - so going one year having a leader with no seat in the house was not that big a deal (esp. given that the NDP only had 13 seats and was the fourth party at the time). We are now in a totally different situation, the next election is scheduled for October 2015! If by chance the NDP chose a new leader who was not a current MP - there is NO WAY you could have that person leading from the gallery for 3.5 years!
Stephen Lewis
He is 75 years old!
I really like Marilyn Churley, but I hope she lets this nomination go to some new blood etc. How about Naomi Klein or Avi Lewis?
Another not-so-young name I'd like to see: Michael Rachlis, MD
One of the top defenders of Canadian Medicare.
While I don't doubt Miller could have a formidable career in federal politics, I'd be kind of annoyed if he jumped into it right now. When he decided against running for mayor again, he said he needed to spend time with his family during these crucial years and thus needed a break from politics.
Interesting choice, anonymouse.
I would not be a fan of Brian Topp being either my local MP or the party leader. I've just never been a fan of back room party apparatchiks.
Here in TD, I'd like to see the NDP nominate someone who had some reasonably close connection to the community.
I'd like to echo Marilyn Churley, Stephen Lewis, and add Reverend Brent Hawkes (mentioned in another thread). Yes, none of them are particularly young or new, but they all are stars. If Topp wants to enter politics then there is little question he should seek the nomination in Toronto Danforth. Surely there are a lot of other strong names that could come forward. For instance, David Miller? There should be a robust race for this nomination as there are big shoes to fill.
Jack didn't actually run in a by-election at all. He won the NDP leadership in January 2003 and was first elected in the June 2004 general election in Toronto-Danforth. The difference though is that when he won the leadership in Jan. 2003 it was clear that there would be a general election in about a year - so going one year having a leader with no seat in the house was not that big a deal (esp. given that the NDP only had 13 seats and was the fourth party at the time). We are now in a totally different situation, the next election is scheduled for October 2015! If by chance the NDP chose a new leader who was not a current MP - there is NO WAY you could have that person leading from the gallery for 3.5 years!
Over 4 years actually, the next election is suppose to be held on October 19, 2015. Harper will likely have to change that though due to all the provincial elections that will also be held in the weeks before and weeks after October 19.
Stephen Lewis
He is 75 years old!
Still not without precedent for "party elders" to come back for a swing at it. Ed Broadbent ran in Ottawa Centre in 2004 for example, and flipped a Liberal riding to NDP.
It was a good fit. I think she would be a weakened candidate there now, in part because of her failed bids next door in B-EY in '06 and '08..
Though it can be counter-argued that B-EY was a bad fit for her; and that's why she lost there.
As for Paula Fletcher: she's a little prickly, and has that Anne McGrath problem of a Communist past, on top of her recent near-defeat...
I live in Toronto-Danforth and everyone I've talked to thinks that Marilyn Churley is a good pick.
I REALLY REALLY hope that Paula Fletcher does not run, I will not vote for this woman.
I'd kind of like to see Sarah or Michael Layton run.
Mike Layton was elected to city council just nine months ago and seems committed to leadingnthenfight against Ford etc...at th municipal level. I think he will stay on council and maybe move up a rung when Marchese or Olivia Chow retire. Sarah Layton would be more of a possibility since she don't hold any elected office now but works for thebStephennLewis Foundation, but she has a three year old child and is pregnant with another. Being an MP is a very demanding job.
I had Churley in mind. She lives in the riding I believe?
Is she still just Churley, or Churley-NDP?
I REALLY REALLY hope that Paula Fletcher does not run, I will not vote for this woman.
Why?
In spite of his age, I think Stephen Lewis would be a big asset to the NDP caucus.
I don't think I'd be thrilled to have someone with no ties to the riding or city to be parachuted in, like the suggestion above of whomever wins the leadership running in this seat. I'd much rather be able to vote for someone local, and I'd love it if the NDP was serious about running women and people of colour in winnable ridings.I figure that if someone without a seat becomes a leader, they should do what Jack did - run in a by-election that wasn't held by the NDP already and actually win the party another seat.
Michelle, you've touched on one of the first things about Jack that won me over to him. He didn't have a seat, but instead of muscling aside an incumbent in a safe seat, he decided he wanted to represent his own constituency. I would think that parachuting in a candidate with no ties locally would be a huge disservice to Layton's legacy.
Considering that Jack only had two supporters in caucus when he ran, there wasn't much of an alternative. Having forced either Libby or Svend to step aside so he could run three time zones away in BC would have left him leader of a caucus where 1 MP supported him. Running in a general election gave him the chance to bring a team in with him, which he did (he brought in 10 new MPs, including himself, to add to the 2 that had supported him, meaning 12/19 MPs were either supporters or brought in by Layton by the time he occupied a seat in Parliament; he also almost doubled the vote from the previous election).
Anonymouse, I don't see a contradiction between what we wrote. Your point about forcing Svend Robinson or Libby Davies aside proves my point, as I'm sure that would not have gone over well with voters in those communities. And even though the Caucus by and large did not support him initially, I think he overcame that issue in due course.
I don't think I'd be thrilled to have someone with no ties to the riding or city to be parachuted in, like the suggestion above of whomever wins the leadership running in this seat. I'd much rather be able to vote for someone local, and I'd love it if the NDP was serious about running women and people of colour in winnable ridings.I figure that if someone without a seat becomes a leader, they should do what Jack did - run in a by-election that wasn't held by the NDP already and actually win the party another seat.
Michelle, you've touched on one of the first things about Jack that won me over to him. He didn't have a seat, but instead of muscling aside an incumbent in a safe seat, he decided he wanted to represent his own constituency. I would think that parachuting in a candidate with no ties locally would be a huge disservice to Layton's legacy.
But he never really had that option. When Jack became leader the NDP had no "safe seats" and had no seats at all in Toronto. Since we weren't that far from a general election it was always a bit of a foregone conclusion that he would run in the general election and the only questtion was whether he would run in Trinity-Spadina or in Toronto-Danforth. In this case it is probably not an issue of making an MP step aside. I suppose in the hypothetical situation where a Brian Topp or Anne McGrath or some other non-caucus member won the leadership, it would be a non-brainerbfor that person to simply fill the vacancy in Danforth
I really like Marilyn Churley, but I hope she lets this nomination go to some new blood etc. How about Naomi Klein or Avi Lewis?
They'd have to join the NDP first.
It was a good fit. I think she would be a weakened candidate there now, in part because of her failed bids next door in B-EY in '06 and '08..Though it can be counter-argued that B-EY was a bad fit for her; and that's why she lost there.
As for Paula Fletcher: she's a little prickly, and has that Anne McGrath problem of a Communist past, on top of her recent near-defeat...
Quite a number of Labour Party and French Socialist Party politicians are ex-Communists, and in Canada it was never a problem for, say, Roland Penner, Gilles Duceppe (Workers Communist Party) or others.
Gerrard Kennedy's old riding isn't too far away...
Actually, it's on the opposite side of the city.
There used to be a very powerful party in this country who got used to taking its supporters votes for granted. Sure parachute anyone you want into this riding because the voters are irrelevant when one is dealing with pragmatic politics. Voters are pawns is not a very democratic tendency. Strange how the NDP hasn't even ruled yet many of the back room dealers are already thinking like that old party.
I think that for the NDP to consolidate their gains among young voters its best bet is to parachute a 75 year old into a riding and tout him as the new leader. That will really fire up the 20 to 35 year old crowd.
In spite of his age, I think Stephen Lewis would be a big asset to the NDP caucus.
Because of his age, I think Stephen Lewis would be a big asset to the NDP caucus.
Gerrard Kennedy's old riding isn't too far away...
Actually, it's on the opposite side of the city.
They are still both in the Central Toronto area, and only 3 ridings away. He may never run and Bob Rae may never want him to run, but I bet he could do well. While he lost to Peggy Nash this election he still seems to be well liked, had he won the 2006 Liberal leadership I think he could have been a real threat to the NDP.
FWIW Rae and Kennedy are mortal enemies going back to the deal Kennedy made with Dion at the 2006 Liberal leadership convention. They hate each other.
FWIW Rae and Kennedy are mortal enemies going back to the deal Kennedy made with Dion at the 2006 Liberal leadership convention. They hate each other.
Kennedy supported Rae in 2008, which seems odd if they hate each other.
Anonymouse, I don't see a contradiction between what we wrote. Your point about forcing Svend Robinson or Libby Davies aside proves my point, as I'm sure that would not have gone over well with voters in those communities. And even though the Caucus by and large did not support him initially, I think he overcame that issue in due course.
That's because there is no contradiction, my points were to add support to yours. Also, I know lots of young people that are big fans of Stephen Lewis. People may forget that he does speaking tours for his foundation and visits lots of universities. Also, Jack didn't quite look like a spring chicken in his last campaign and that didn't hurt his youth support. Similarly, Ed Broadbent was attacked for being a political "dinosaur" when he tried to stage a comeback in 2004 in a riding that contains a lot of University of Ottawa and Carleton students, I think we saw how that turned out. So if Lewis thinks he could run and serve for a while, good, let him seek the nomination. If not, new blood is exciting too, but here's to hoping for a vigorously contested nomination.
There used to be a very powerful party in this country who got used to taking its supporters votes for granted. Sure parachute anyone you want into this riding because the voters are irrelevant when one is dealing with pragmatic politics. Voters are pawns is not a very democratic tendency. Strange how the NDP hasn't even ruled yet many of the back room dealers are already thinking like that old party.
I think that for the NDP to consolidate their gains among young voters its best bet is to parachute a 75 year old into a riding and tout him as the new leader. That will really fire up the 20 to 35 year old crowd.
You seem to forget that the party members in that riding are the ones who will make the final decision.
Maybe Rick Mercer will run for the Liberals. He lives in Toronto Danforth. Another reason why the NDP needs to put its strongest foot forward.
If Stephen Page or Sarah Polley want to trade in their celebrity careers, I wouldn't be surprised if the NDPers of Toronto Danforth would be willing to give them a listen. Heck, Lorraine Segato would be really cool too, age be damned!
I don't think Kennedy will run for the Liberals, given that he'd be a parachute candidate (he actually lives in York South-Weston - Mike Sullivan gleefully noted he didn't have an Alan Tonks sign until well into the campaign), and that PHP voters rather firmly gave him the hint that he wasn't welcome. He'd be walking into a campaign where the NDP would be throwing everything including the kitchen sink at the campaign - I know more than a few PHP NDP members would take especial pleasure in taking him on again. But hey, we're forgetting that a certain Mr Rae made the jump from that neck of the woods to a more downtown riding.
