Also, I know lots of young people that are big fans of Stephen Lewis. People may forget that he does speaking tours for his foundation and visits lots of universities.
Stockholm would have us believe that Brian Topp has more street cred than Stephen Lewis among young voters, lol.
I don't think Kennedy will run for the Liberals, given that he'd be a parachute candidate (he actually lives in York South-Weston - Mike Sullivan gleefully noted he didn't have an Alan Tonks sign until well into the campaign), and that PHP voters rather firmly gave him the hint that he wasn't welcome. He'd be walking into a campaign where the NDP would be throwing everything including the kitchen sink at the campaign - I know more than a few PHP NDP members would take especial pleasure in taking him on again. But hey, we're forgetting that a certain Mr Rae made the jump from that neck of the woods to a more downtown riding.
As well the NDP will likely be preoccupied with the leadership during the by-election. May work for or against.
While it's always good for a candidate to have roots in the community he/she is running in, I don't think it's a non-starter for someone from another part of the city. As I recall, the last MP for Toronto-Danforth lived in a different riding.
Actually I'm not so sure that the NDP would be preoccupied with the leadership during the byelection. A byelection has to be called within six months of a seat officially being declared vacant. I assume that Toronto-Danforth probably officially became vacant sometime in the last week - so that means that six months later would take us to the last week of February. In all likelihood, the NDP leadership process will be completed by late January or early February - meaning that the byelection will likely to called AFTER the new leader is in place and it could be perfect timing for a new leader who doesn't have a seat to run there.
Also, I know lots of young people that are big fans of Stephen Lewis. People may forget that he does speaking tours for his foundation and visits lots of universities.Stockholm would have us believe that Brian Topp has more street cred than Stephen Lewis among young voters, lol.
Where exactly did I say that? I love Stephen Lewis - I'm just pointing out that he is about 75 years old - that is quite old for someone to want to take on the grueling job of becoming a Member of Parliament. If he seriously wanted to run then I would say good for him - but I would be very surprised if he did.
I think that for the NDP to consolidate their gains among young voters its best bet is to parachute a 75 year old into a riding and tout him as the new leader. That will really fire up the 20 to 35 year old crowd.
Haha --writing as someone in the middle of that demographic, you're entirely correct here!
Actually I'm not so sure that the NDP would be preoccupied with the leadership during the byelection. A byelection has to be called within six months of a seat officially being declared vacant. I assume that Toronto-Danforth probably officially became vacant sometime in the last week - so that means that six months later would take us to the last week of February. In all likelihood, the NDP leadership process will be completed by late January or early February - meaning that the byelection will likely to called AFTER the new leader is in place and it could be perfect timing for a new leader who doesn't have a seat to run there.
That assumes that Harper waits till the last possible opportunity to call the by-election. The Liberals will likely have candidate in place in the next several weeks and they will be campaigning ASAP.
Two points:
1) Stephen Lewis running in a Toronto riding would not exactly be "parachuting." A St. Paul's resident running in Danforth isn't exactly John Tory running in Haliburton. Most Torontonians pay little attention to riding boundaries, and Lewis would have to be democratically chosen by the riding association. If "loyalty to the area between Coxwell and the Don River below Cosburn" is the main criteria for a candidate, then they can reject Lewis.
2) As someone in the latter half of the 20-35 generation, I couldn't care less if he new Danforth MP was say, 48, or 73.
As someone who actually lives in the riding, I don't think a parachute candidate is a good idea. One of the reasons why people voted for Jack is because we actually KNOW who he is..
Why do you dislike Paula Fletcher so much?
I didn't realise Stephen Lewis lived in St. Paul's. I would rather he run there! It is a tougher seat for the NDP and I've never been a big fan of Carolyn Bennett.
In other celebrity candidates, how about Luba Goy? She is 65. Does anyone know if she lives in Toronto Danforth?
As someone who actually lives in the riding, I don't think a parachute candidate is a good idea. One of the reasons why people voted for Jack is because we actually KNOW who he is..
But Jack didn't actually live in the riding either. He didn't even live in the adjoining one.
I don't like parachutes either, but I don't think a quality candidate should be deterred by riding boundaries.
As someone who actually lives in the riding, I don't think a parachute candidate is a good idea. One of the reasons why people voted for Jack is because we actually KNOW who he is..
But Jack didn't actually live in the riding either. He didn't even live in the adjoining one.
I don't like parachutes either, but I don't think a quality candidate should be deterred by riding boundaries.
Whether a candidate lives within an urban riding's boundaries is not as important as a real connection to the riding and knowledge of the issues. I am sure that after years on council left wing people in many different ridings believed Jack understood their issues. When Bill Siksay ran in Burnaby Douglas he did not live in the riding but had worked in it for over 15 years. Mind you as soon as he won his seat him and his partner moved into the riding.
I think the views on living in a riding your want to represent are very different depending on the community. In an urban setting, say like Toronto, where ridings are neigbourhoods, being a candidate from a close by riding can be a matter of a few blocks I don't think it is seen as a very big deal.
Harper knows the Cons have absolutely no chance at winning T-D, so I don't expect him to call the by-election until it's near the 6-month limit, especially since the Ontario provincial election is this fall.
But I wouldn't be surpised either if he waited until the NDP set the date for the Leadership Convention, and called it for the Monday beforehand, so that there's a distraction just prior to the really big media event.
Stay tuned.
It's one possibility, David, but it would look really petty, and I'm not sure how in the mood people are for political games, and trying to game the system.
I suppose that hypothetically, if Brian Topp decided to run for the leadership, he could also announce his intention to seek the NDP nomination in T-D and make a commitment to electoral politics win or lose - that way even if he didn't become leader he would be a "front-bencher". That way he would be in Parliament even if Harper tried to a pull a fast one on the NDP and call the byelection before the leadership vote.
Just a gentle reminder, as in all ridings, in an NDP nomination it will be the members of the riding association, both old and new, who will decide who the nominee for Toronto-Danforth will be. No one else will have a say.
...well people from outside of the riding can say whatever they want, they just can't vote.
Stephen Lewis is a very young looking and acting 75 year old. And I think he has an increadible amount of experience to offer a young caucus. Particularly if it was a one term thing.
I hold the same views as Radiorahim concerning Topp. I don't like Topp, but on the other hand, I know he's very much a part of the successes lately, so I can't entirely not like him. I just think he's a "new labour" type. His views may be usefull in the nuts and bolts of getting elected. But there it ends. While that sounds derogatory, it isn't, necessarily. Everyone has their talents and limitations. And Topp has talent to spare. I just don't think it extends to elected office.
I don't think we've had enough Ford yet for Miller to enjoy the benefit of nostalgia. Too soon, for that reason and the good reasons Lord Palmerston identified.
My preference would be for someone who lives in the ridding and has a good profile there already.
The timing of a by-election in Toronto-Danforth may also depend on if any other seats become vacant in the next few months. That's one of the reasons by-elections for individual ridings are not called that early, because it is more efficient to have a few at the same time and fill the seats that way.
I hold the same views as Radiorahim concerning Topp. I don't like Topp, but on the other hand, I know he's very much a part of the successes lately, so I can't entirely not like him. I just think he's a "new labour" type. His views may be usefull in the nuts and bolts of getting elected. But there it ends. While that sounds derogatory, it isn't, necessarily. Everyone has their talents and limitations. And Topp has talent to spare. I just don't think it extends to elected office.
I also wasn't particularly pleased with Topp's praise of the neo-liberal policies of the current PASOK government in Greece.
"I also wasn't particularly pleased with Topp's praise of the neo-liberal policies of the current PASOK government in Greece."
Topp lost me when he tried to save the Liberal party with the attempted coalition.
Like I said, "New Labour".
I'm not sure why you attack Topp for trying to depose Harper in the 2008 coalition when it was Jack's idea more than anyone else's...I guess you know that attacking Jack for having masterminded the abortive coalition wouldn;t get you very far these days so you pick on Topp instead. I think you will find that about 99.999999999999999999% of progressive people in Canada wished that Ignatieff hadn't chickened out and that we could have rid ourselves of the Harper nightmare three years ago...but it was not to be and in the end the Liberals reaped what they sowed. I still wish the cioalition had gone forward.
The timing of a by-election in Toronto-Danforth may also depend on if any other seats become vacant in the next few months. That's one of the reasons by-elections for individual ridings are not called that early, because it is more efficient to have a few at the same time and fill the seats that way.
I have to disagree with you there. There is no "efficiency" in having several byelections on the same day - there are totally separate elections in each riding where there is a byelection and every penny that is spent in one riding would get spent whether it was happening by itself or in conjunction with several other by-elections. You could have four byelections all on the same day or four byelections staggered two months apart and it would cost Elections Canada exactly the same amount of money to stage - not one red cent would be saved.
The timing of byelections in Canada depends on one thing and one thing only - what Stephen Harper thinks is most politically advantageous to the Conservative Party. If Harper thought it was to his advantage to call a byelection tomorrow to take place the same day as the October Ontario election - he would do it in a flash. Do you think he gives a shit about what might be ever so slightly more conveninet for his enemies at Elections Canada???
My problem with Topp... how good of a leader and politician is he? Will voters see Brian Topp as... PRIME MINISTER?
He can be perfect on the issues... he can be the smartest candidate in the race... he can be a nicest guy. None of that makes him a potential Prime Minister.
I also worry that the party will rush to elect a new leader. I don't want to wait long but talk about January is too soon. Give candidates time to sign up members, raise some money, and run a truly national campaign.
Edited: Opps... wrong thread I guess :) But it seems Topp has come up in this by-election thread as well.
Topp lost me when he tried to save the Liberal party with the attempted coalition.
Like I said, "New Labour".
This is one of those rare occasions when I find myself agreeing with Stockholm 
The timing of a by-election in Toronto-Danforth may also depend on if any other seats become vacant in the next few months. That's one of the reasons by-elections for individual ridings are not called that early, because it is more efficient to have a few at the same time and fill the seats that way.I have to disagree with you there. There is no "efficiency" in having several byelections on the same day - there are totally separate elections in each riding where there is a byelection and every penny that is spent in one riding would get spent whether it was happening by itself or in conjunction with several other by-elections. You could have four byelections all on the same day or four byelections staggered two months apart and it would cost Elections Canada exactly the same amount of money to stage - not one red cent would be saved.
True, but whenever there is a seat that is empty, I've always seen the government wait to see if other seats come up, and then all seats end up going at the same time. Sometimes one seat will go at a time, usually it's in cases like when somebody steps aside for a leader, but having them all go at once is more common.
The pattern lately has been that when there is a single vacancy the PM waits the full six months before calling a byelection and then if other seats become vacant in the interim, they get called for the same date. But it doesn't have to be that way. In fact if I had my way, the PM would have no say in the timing of byelections at all - the Chief Electoral Offier would automatically schedule a byelection within a week of a seat becoming vacant with the actuall byelection to be six weeks later end of story. That's the way they do it in the UK - there if am MP dies - the byelection usually happens within a month.
Andrew Lang is already declaring his intention to run for the Liberal nomination in Toronto-Danforth, according to Glen McGregor at the Ottawa Citizen.
Good. He'll be lucky to get 10%.
Andrew Lang is already declaring his intention to run for the Liberal nomination in Toronto-Danforth, according to Glen McGregor at the Ottawa Citizen.
Wonder will the Liberals get enough sense to stop running this guy? The party would likely have an easier time attracting people to run seeing the candidate doesn't need to go up against Layton, I've heard George Smitherman's name mentioned. It'll be interesting to see though if the Liberals are will just allow the NDP to win seeing it was Layton's riding.
Andrew Lang is already declaring his intention to run for the Liberal nomination in Toronto-Danforth, according to Glen McGregor at the Ottawa Citizen.
Wonder will the Liberals get enough sense to stop running this guy?
A more inspired (if in the end, no more "winning") choice might be Amanda Lang.
How can he not see how sleazy of a statement that was?!
Good. He'll be lucky to get 10%.
Lang will get less than 10% if he sticks to this line of strategy/messaging:
Lang says the NDP would be unwise to trade too heavily on Layton's memory once the writ drops."I wouldn't be running against a ghost. It would be harmful for whomever does run for the NDP to ride on the past coat-tails of Jack Layton," he said. Voters would see that as insincere, he said.
"I would take advantage of that."
Yeah sure, Andrew, please do "take advantage" of it if your opponent pledges to carry on the work/vision of Canada's most popular and respected leader.
Andrew Lang is already declaring his intention to run for the Liberal nomination in Toronto-Danforth, according to Glen McGregor at the Ottawa Citizen.
Wonder will the Liberals get enough sense to stop running this guy?
A more inspired (if in the end, no more "winning") choice might be Amanda Lang.
I thought the same thing,
I heard on CBC radio this morning that the Speaker has been officially notified of the vacancy in Toronto-Danforth, so the 180-day clock has started ticking.
The latest the by-election can be called is the last week of February.
Anyone wanna bet that's when Harper will decide the date?
Is it not constitutionally-enshrined NDP policy that priority be given to female candidates in vacated incumbent ridings? I seem to recall annoyance about this in some quarters when Fin Donnelly was nominated.
Is it not constitutionally-enshrined NDP policy that priority be given to female candidates in vacated incumbent ridings?
No.
Is it not constitutionally-enshrined NDP policy that priority be given to female candidates in vacated incumbent ridings?No.
I believe thats a BCNDP rule/policy(?), it made a lot of noise in the lead up to the 2009 election
The policy says that the riding association has to do a thorough candidate search, and demonstrate that it has approached candidates from underrepresented groups as part of the process. Then, any interested candidates must submit to a vetting by federal office, and once approved as candidates may run for the nomination. Federal Office decides when the candidate search has been thorough enough, and taking that and other factors into account, then clears a nomination meeting for takeoff.
Is it not constitutionally-enshrined NDP policy that priority be given to female candidates in vacated incumbent ridings?No.
I believe thats a BCNDP rule/policy(?), it made a lot of noise in the lead up to the 2009 election
Correct
The BC NDP had a much bigger gender imbalance to correct than the federal NDP does. I think that prior to the 2009 election the BC NDP caucus was only about 25% female so they had to take more action. The federal NDP caucus is now 40% female and while that is not quite 50% its getting close enough that its hard to argue that the next NDP candidate in T-D asbolutely has to be a woman.
I've heard George Smitherman's name mentioned.
Although given Smitherman isn't too popular in federal Liberal circles, I wouldn't be too sure about that. Provincially, I would pay good money to see Tabuns wipe the floor with him.
I'd like to see Sarah Polley or David Miller run in Toronto-Danforth
Yes the BC NDP went down from 100% of the caucus being women in 2005. The rule has not produced any better results for electing women. In Burnaby we ran three women and an incumbent man. One of the four seats was designated under the rules. The incumbent and one of the women won but not the one from the woman only nomination process. Kathy Corrigan won because of her political profile from being a strong School Board Chair. The designated riding didn't even have a nomination battle and the woman nominated was a weak candidate who lost to a beatable candidate. It has not performed well as a method of achieving gender equity.
I think the BCNDP women/minorities policy is for seats vacated by incumbents who do not seek re-election. So technically that excludes seats vacated by the member passing away.
Regarding Stephen Lewis - speaking as a 29-year-old, I was watching the funeral in public on the big screens. The crowd was very mixed but skewed towards the young. They broke out in cheers several times during his eulogy. He may not be a young man, but he has words and energy that can get young people fired up. I refer back to my prior example - Ed Broadbent 2004. He brought a lot of energy back into that riding's NDP vote, including a considerable number of young folks.
Andrew Lang is already declaring his intention to run for the Liberal nomination in Toronto-Danforth, according to Glen McGregor at the Ottawa Citizen.
Wonder will the Liberals get enough sense to stop running this guy?
A more inspired (if in the end, no more "winning") choice might be Amanda Lang.
I thought the same thing,
You know, as a total aside from the tone of this thread, I am intrigued about Amanda Lang's future political prospects, and find it a wonder that I haven't seen her mentioned in such a light--after all, she'd definitely be a MSM wet dream (perhaps literally, when it comes to the hetero male reps thereof). Amanda Lang as next Liberal leader? Cynically speaking (or not). maybe the Grits need their own "Brian Topp" out-of-the-blue character.
Of course, in Toronto-Danforth, it'd more likely be a "practice" suicide run on her part. But hey; why not--unless she does a shellshocking "Scott Brown", of course.
Michelle, you've touched on one of the first things about Jack that won me over to him. He didn't have a seat, but instead of muscling aside an incumbent in a safe seat, he decided he wanted to represent his own constituency. I would think that parachuting in a candidate with no ties locally would be a huge disservice to Layton's legacy.
Layton running in Danforth also made a positive impression with me as well. It was also a gutsy move at that time - NDP did not have a single Toronto seat. I thought Layton was crazy to run in Toronto. How time has changed.
If Amanda Lang were to make the move to politics, it would instantly end her career with the CBC, so she'd want to know it was for real.
Also, I've watched her on panels with labour economists, and all I can say is that I was shocked she did not understand the basics of how the OAS/GIS and CPP system work, but coped with that by making sneeringly dismissive comments about socialists.
She knows her markets, but has zero feel for how anybody but the wealthy lives, and I actually saw her advocate market strategies today that take advantage of those rubes the "retail investors".
She's smart and pretty, but would have a hard time running anywhere outside of St. Paul's, I think.
