For starters, what are the NDP membership's demographics, primarially the ratio of men to women. And of course what does the party need to do now (or probably in the future) to encourage a decent ratio for leadership races? I know equity is encouraged highly in other parts of the party.
Peggy Nash weighs running for NDP leadership...
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/peggy-nash-...
In thread 14 I said:
We know there is no love lost between Davies and Mulcair. It could well be that she chooses the non-Mulcair candidate with the best chance of winning regardless of ideology.Well... Called it.
Dont think you did call it. And as soon as Libby announced her support, I knew someone would chalk it up to anti-Mulcair.
You under-rate Libby. If she wanted Peter Julian, she would have supported him. For what its worth- read her lips- she wants Brian Topp to be leader.
KenS... can you recall if Brian Topp worked as federal party organizer for the Atlantic region in the early 90's?
I was neither back here, or involved even as a campaign volunteer until just before the 1993 debacle. (Excellent sense of timing. And clueless what was coming down the pike.)
But I dont see how he could have been. I dont know how long he staid with Phil Edmunston... but since Phil wasnt in that long, I would think Brian was there until the end. Though Phil resigned a fair bit before the election... so I guess Brian could have been sent on the thankless task of pre-election prep for single digit results here.
There is at least one frequent babbler who does not and did not live here, but would know the answer anyway.
Thx. I think he went to work for Audrey after Phil. I just remember someone from the central office coming down to do some work here in NS. For some reason, I think it was Topp.
The Davies endorsement is somewhat counterintuitive given the way Topp is usually portrayed (especially around here) as some sort of Blairite (as if that term still had any meaning). It does speak to Brian's capacity to build support from a wide variety of people. As Saskatchewan political columnist Murray Mandryk observed (and as the national media ignored), last week's Pat Atkinson endorsement was likely as significant, politically, as the Romanow endorsement the same day.
I am struck, though, by the parallel's between the Topp campaign srategy and the Lingenfelter strategy in the 09 SNDP leadership race. In both cases, the candidate was out early, actively cultivating the frontrunner label and reinforcing it with endorsements from party grandees. In 09, the Lingenfelter campaign was eventually moved to adopt the Meili practice of announcing endorsements from less grand grandees. I think Topp will need to go there to avoid looking so much like the candidate of certain elites within the party.
Mulcair, as I've observed before, seems to be trying (with some success) to create the air of a draft, with Julian following a similar style - ie, regular endorsements from working MPs across the country.
To some degree, I think third tier candidates will have to follow the Topp pattern in their announcements - ie, produce enough endorsers right off to generate sufficent buzz. For example, were I advising Chisholm or Ashton, I'd suggest a clutch of MPs or other grandees endorsing them a their opening news conference.
Nash probably has enough profile that she does't need a host of endorsers at her announcement, but it would likely help her to follow the Mulcair / Julian tactic of having endorsers come out in advance of her announcement. I'm not sure how exactly she leverages her CAW connections, but I suspect that a Lewenza endorsement hurts as much as it helps given his confused and foolish support for the Liberals. Any hint of a Hargrove endorsement would be toxic to her candidacy.
On the subject of who the right or left of the NDP endorses, I think many candidates are going to have endorsements from across the political spectrum and that while some candidates may identify more with the right or left of the party, I don't think endorsements will break down among right-left lines.
On the subject of who the right or left of the NDP endorses, I think many candidates are going to have endorsements from across the political spectrum and that while some candidates may identify more with the right or left of the party, I don't think endorsements will break down among right-left lines.
Nor is that the only spectrum to consider.
Well I saw Nathan Cullen today on P&P and it's the first time I've ever seen him speak. Wow - I really have to say I am impressed with this guy already. I look forward to seeing his voice join the debates.
I think the filed is now more or less settled (even if candidates are not yet declared).
Nikki Ashton - will announce after the Manitoba election - nlt Oct 15
Nathan Cullen - already declared
Paul Dewar - said to be announcing this Sunday
Peter Julian - no scuttlebutt about announcement date
Thomas Mulcair - no scuttlebutt about announcement date
Peggy Nash - not clear if she will be in
Romeo Saganash - already declared
Martin Singh - anouncement this weekend
Brian Topp - already declared
I would be surprised if Peggy Nash runs, she is needed as Finance critic
I would be surprised if Peggy Nash runs, she is needed as Finance critic
We have a caucus of 102 members. You don't think someone else could do the job?
For sure but she is just getting in the groove and I think she likes hammering away at Flaherty
I think the filed is now more or less settled (even if candidates are not yet declared). Nikki Ashton - will announce after the Manitoba election - nlt Oct 15 Nathan Cullen - already declared Paul Dewar - said to be announcing this Sunday Peter Julian - no scuttlebutt about announcement date Thomas Mulcair - no scuttlebutt about announcement date Peggy Nash - not clear if she will be in Romeo Saganash - already declared Martin Singh - anouncement this weekend Brian Topp - already declared
I dunno. There have been a couple of surprises (Saganash and Singh) and there could be a couple more. Are you certain Ashton will run?
I dunno. There have been a couple of surprises (Saganash and Singh) and there could be a couple more. Are you certain Ashton will run?
Granted, other dark horse candidates could emerge.
I have every reason to believe that Ashton will run.
Cool Video of Mulcair about the Libs
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=93ckqUVPbJk
Jack and Mulcair at Mcgill in 2009
Mulcair makes some anti-interventionist comments about Afghanistan
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dze7R6pkXXw
Mulcair hammering Goodale
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XlS7lSozYPM
Jack at Outremont Victory in 2007
While its possible someone else could run whose name is not being tossed around, they would be an exceptionally dark horse.
Because people have to be doing something now. And word of that gets around, as it did with Martin Singh.
Though Robert Chisholm is missing from Malcolm's list. I don't think he'll go for it. But that is just my personal eductated guess, and he has not yet indicated he will not. And for anybody- while early in the race, its getting late for people to be (genuinely) not decided. We're at or very close to the point of 'if you are not telling or messaging people that you are in, you are out.'
============
The world was so different in the 1993 NDP campaign. While the train wreck was obviously coming, there were a lot of resources and they were spread all over as usual. With virtually nil experienced campaign talent then in Nova Scotia, there were a slew of folks sent out here by Ottawa... so Brian could easily have been among them, at least for a while.
I was proven wrong. And lightning fast.
You know, the candidates who are considering running and to those that are already in, I must say that I personally like all of them. This will be a truely diverse race. We're seeing different styles of campaigning, you have those who are aiming directly for the grassroots and working themselves up. And we also have those gaining support from the top, and those political titans will definately get out there and campaign.
For the current candidates in-
I suggest that Brian Topp begins going after the grassroots now, for instance get a head start on things and start getting public endorsements from everyday NDP members. Now's the time to inform people about your life, where you've worked, how that shaped you, etc. It may seem trivial, but it makes you seem more human, knowing what kind of sports you like etc. And of course start releasing solid policy planks.
For Romeo Saganash, I'm not sure if he's raised the required 15k to enter. I suggest that he at least put up a website where we can donate. I may not vote for you in the end, but regardless your voice on issues needs to be heard.
And for Nathan Cullen, what a great start. Seems like theres a well oiled machine behind you, and alot of charisma. Keep up the good work.
A side note about Peggy Nash- I like Peggy when shes herself and answers honestly; When she tries to spin/dodge an issue, its very irritating. But I do hope we see her in the race.
Dont think you did call it. And as soon as Libby announced her support, I knew someone would chalk it up to anti-Mulcair.
You under-rate Libby. If she wanted Peter Julian, she would have supported him. For what its worth- read her lips- she wants Brian Topp to be leader.
I think that must be right. I mean, she always had the option of endorsing no one, too, if she wasn't strongly leaning in any one direction. And she's not the sort who would endorse someone for a future favour.
Nathan Cullen on CTV's Power Play: http://watch.ctv.ca/news/#clip542068
and on CBC's Power and Politics: http://www.cbc.ca/video/#/News/1221258968/ID=15448271
You know, the candidates who are considering running and to those that are already in, I must say that I personally like all of them. This will be a truely diverse race. We're seeing different styles of campaigning, you have those who are aiming directly for the grassroots and working themselves up. And we also have those gaining support from the top, and those political titans will definately get out there and campaign.
I'm actually feeling similarly. I have concerns about all of them, of course--they all have very different weaknesses that they're going to have to overcome in order to get my vote--but all of them have something worthwhile to offer, too.
I saw Robert Chisholm on P&P in response to one of their current issues, can't remember which one - but he looks great, and is a good speaker.
ETA: Unless someone really surprises me, I guess my current faves in this race (and I realize there's only three declared candidates so far...) are: 1. Saganash 2. Niki Ashton 3. Nathan Cullen or Peggy Nash. However, I think in the end it will come down to either Topp or Mulcair. 
Cool Video of Mulcair about the Libs
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=93ckqUVPbJk
Jack and Mulcair at Mcgill in 2009
Mulcair makes some anti-interventionist comments about Afghanistan
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dze7R6pkXXw
Mulcair hammering Goodale
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XlS7lSozYPM
Jack at Outremont Victory in 2007
For all of the Goodale tormenting that Tom Mulcair has done over the years, I believe Judy W-L should endorse him. Lol.
This is also why the Liberals (and Conservatives) hate Mulcair. He is a thorn in their side. He looks for the strongest strongest in their herd and goes for the jugular. And worst of all, he used to be a member of their party (provincially). Et tu, Brute? Can anyone imagine what the NDP would be like right now if they had a provincial wing that could sign up as many members as any other provincial Québec party?
ETA: If Mulcair loses the leadership, maybe he should consider pulling a Charest and switching to the provincial scene where he could try to organise a post-sovereigntist left-of-centre (ND) party that would take the oomph out-of François Legault's moderates (who remind me François Bayrou movement for uninspired politics), welcome in large sections of the Green Party and Québec Solidaire, and bleed the Liberals and PQ's left flanks.
The mob that is lining up (so early) behind Brian Topp is ominous. To any member of the public it looks like party stalwarts are trying to put the boots to Mulcair. Depending on what the issues are between them, it feels like Phil Edmunston all over again- a strong Québec voice that gets what's going on/some of the differences in that province and the party moves swiftly to isolate them, shut them down, and downplay their messages. Does the NDP really think it would have done as well if their key messenger in Québec didn't understand the subtleties of the language issue inside & out? Mulcair has worked all over and all throughout on the language debates and is an anglo that laid it down in a virtually >90% francophone provincial public service.
On a more positive note, I am happy to see all the other candidates entering the race. Cullen is off to a good start but his French is in fact quite poor. The media reports that Cullen's French is "functional" and that is a fair assessment. Looking forward to more candidates visions for the party...
I think the filed is now more or less settled (even if candidates are not yet declared). Nikki Ashton - will announce after the Manitoba election - nlt Oct 15 Nathan Cullen - already declared Paul Dewar - said to be announcing this Sunday Peter Julian - no scuttlebutt about announcement date Thomas Mulcair - no scuttlebutt about announcement date Peggy Nash - not clear if she will be in Romeo Saganash - already declared Martin Singh - anouncement this weekend Brian Topp - already declared
Candidates have until January to declare - "settled" is not the word I would use to describe this race. It is a long race and I predict the players will change.
One more Nathan Cullen video from his launch day, from SUN TV (!): http://www.sunnewsnetwork.ca/video/1193164537001 . It actually gets a bit more into policy than the other two, so it's worth taking a trip to the dark side for it.
Saying Topp has no grassroots support is unfair given his 1650 likes on facebook and all the people defending him on this board. So Topp has *some* grassroots support but it definitely isn't something he has emphasized. So far his leadership campaign has followed a mainly Top-down approach.
CPAC coverage of Cullen's announcement
He's very polished. And seemed to have a good sized crowd cheering him mon.
He seems comfortable in French, although to my (highly untrained) ear, I sense a strong accent. Others will correct me if I'm wrong.
I'm interested, and open to him. What I need to see from him is some 'killer instinct' for lack of a better term. I need to know he can handle Stephen Harper and his attacks, and push back just as hard. I get nervous when I hear politicians talk about changing the way politics are conducted - it takes great skill to win by re-writing the play book. Layton did it with great success, Audrey McLaughlin with great failure.
If Cullen can show me that his desire to 'beat the way Harper does politics' is rooted in sound strategy and tactics, I may support him.
The race is so early, I think some people need to just wait.
One Topp story, another Topp Story , and a Mulcair Story
The mulcair story is weird, it says that both Topp and Mulcair are social democrats, yet social democrats are different breeds in English Canada and Quebec. Oh and...
According to his office, the member for Outremont will announce its decision "within a fortnight."
I agree, still a very long way to go - if the entry deadline is in January, will there be debates before then?
Whoops, just noticed that Lou had already posted the Cullen launch video. So let me just put in my two cents' worth.
I love his style, and he's terrific in English, but his French is really not great. He's clearly worked hard at it (it's better than mine), but I wouldn't say that he's "comfortable in French." If he's got a knack for languages, he might be able to pick up a lot over the course of the campaign, but this is clearly his biggest weakness.
I agree, still a very long way to go - if the entry deadline is in January, will there be debates before then?
God, I sure hope so. I'm going to be leaving the country in January for the better part of a year, and I want to at least participate in the beginning part of the leadership race. I'm chomping at the bit for the endorsement stage to be over and the fundraiser-dinner-and-rally part to begin.
double post
The mulcair story is weird, it says that both Topp and Mulcair are social democrats, yet social democrats are different breeds in English Canada and Quebec. Oh and...
So how are social democrats different in Quebec? Are they more left or right? Is that why they have the most private health care in the country for the province that is supposed to be the most left of centre?
I saw Robert Chisholm on P&P in response to one of their current issues, can't remember which one - but he looks great, and is a good speaker.
ETA: Unless someone really surprises me, I guess my current faves in this race (and I realize there's only three declared candidates so far...) are: 1. Saganash 2. Niki Ashton 3. Nathan Cullen or Peggy Nash. However, I think in the end it will come down to either Topp or Mulcair.
Robert would make a good leader except for his French. Maybe he'll shock us but from what I understand, he's just starting to learn it.
My gut tells me this will come down to Mulcair and Julian... at this early stage in the game.
Though Robert Chisholm is missing from Malcolm's list.
It was oversight rather than deliberate exclusion. Unfortunately, with so many candidates, trying to list them all from memory is like trying to recite the list of the seven deadly sins or the (no offence implied) seven dwarves.
I'm actually feeling similarly. I have concerns about all of them, of course--they all have very different weaknesses that they're going to have to overcome in order to get my vote--but all of them have something worthwhile to offer, too.
The conventional wisdom is that you run to your weakness in a leadership race (ie, you run to show your weakness is either not that bad or perhaps even a benefit). You run to your strength in an election campaign.
Candidates have until January to declare - "settled" is not the word I would use to describe this race. It is a long race and I predict the players will change.
"Settled" is exactly the word I'd use. The cahnces of a new candidate emerging who isn't already being talked about is close to two-thirds of four-ifths of bugger all. Anyone not in the filed by end October likely won't be able to put forward an effective campaign.
Saying Topp has no grassroots support is unfair given . . . all the people defending him on this board.
I'm not supportin Topp and I have defended him as viciferously as anyone. I've also defended Mulcair and Ashton, as well as one or two others. I'll defend any of them against attacks that I think are unfair and illegitimate.
Keystone XL: bad for unions? not so clear
He [Cullen] seems comfortable in French, although to my (highly untrained) ear, I sense a strong accent. Others will correct me if I'm wrong.
I won't correct you there, Lou. It's painful listening to him. But he is fluid, if not fluent.
Phil Edmonston endorses Mulcair over his former campaign manager:
http://www.cyberpresse.ca/le-soleil/actualites/politique/201109/30/01-44...
Keystone XL: bad for unions? not so clear
I think the CEP has a rather different take.
Keystone XL: bad for unions? not so clear
I think the CEP has a rather different take.
Did you read the article?
I think Topp will need to go there to avoid looking so much like the candidate of certain elites within the party.
All the comments about Ed Broadbent's unbeatable support ignore the fact that he endorsed Peter Tabuns for Ontario party leader in March 2009, when Tabuns came 10% behind Andrea Horwath on the first count, 21% behind her on the final count.
Phil Edmonston endorses Mulcair over his former campaign manager:
http://www.cyberpresse.ca/le-soleil/actualites/politique/201109/30/01-44...
Fierce words. Edmonston says that both Topp and Mulcair are highly competent, social democrats but that Topp identifies more with the anglophone left while Mulcair reflects more the "Québecois soul." He says that if Mulcair is not elected leader it will mean "the NDP continues to be run by the establishment of the Canadian anglophone left and that for the Québec Members" the message would be "shut-up and look pretty."
Very poor quality google translation
ETA: Edmonston also stresses Mulcair's electoral experience (particularly in Québec) over Topp's high competence "backstage."
Phil Edmonston endorses Mulcair over his former campaign manager:
http://www.cyberpresse.ca/le-soleil/actualites/politique/201109/30/01-44...
Did Topp attend the 1989 leadership convention? I'd be surprised if he didn't. Since he was with Edmonston, I assume he supported Steven Langdon on the first three ballots, and Audrey McLaughlin on the fourth. Langdon was the candidate of the left at that convention, as well as the candidate of the small Quebec delegation.
He says that if Mulcair is not elected leader it will mean "the NDP continues to be run by the establishment of the Canadian anglophone left and that for the Québec Members" the message would be "shut-up and look pretty."
Ouch. And as much as it hurts to read, I pretty much agree with it. And it's probably better to read, and assess, words like this before the vote than after.
Also, FWIW, and because some here might appreciate it, I created [url=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VJ7RqT1OwqA]this video[/url], in hope that the race will call the party back to its better self.
