Ontario 2011 election campaign 5

Olly wrote:

At any rate, one piece of good news is that all polls seem to agree Hudak will be shut out of Toronto. It's really hard to govern without a single seat in the biggest city in the province.

I think the right realized he was toast weeks ago. I suspect their internal polling looks bad. The Stun not endorsing him, articles in the Toast and Stun talking about his lacklustre campaign, coverage of how even Bill Davis couldnt really come up with anything nice to say about him, Harper getting Flaherty to endorse him rather than doing it himself...

The homophobic and chain gang garbage seems designed just to get his bedrock fundamentalist (of all faiths) creep vote motivated so he doesnt get wiped out.

But, the tories are the masters of getting old white folks rides to the polls so who knows.

I heard the opposite. Tories being told to vote NDP in swing ridings to get their cherished tax reductions.

Stockholm wrote:

There is now a final Angus Reid poll of 2,000 just out in the Star. It is very contrary to every other poll and has thenPCs ahead with 36%, followed by the Libs at 33 Nad NDP at 26%

Angus Reid-Toronto Star last poll:

PC: 36%

Liberal: 33%

NDP: 26%

Green: 5%

The tightest Ontario election in a generation will come down to the wire with the Progressive Conservatives facing a shutout in the city of Toronto, a new Toronto Star-Angus Reid survey suggests.

In the final major poll before Thursday's vote, the Tories are at 36 per cent, the Liberals at 33 per cent, the New Democrats at 26 per cent and the Greens at 5 per cent.

"It's a statistical dead heat," Jaideep Mukerji, managing director at Angus Reid, said Tuesday.

That means victory will go to the party that can best mobilize its voters, but the Tories may not win one of Toronto's 23 ridings, so must secure 54 of Ontario's remaining 84 seats for a majority in the 107-member Legislature.

"In the last two weeks despite the (televised leaders') debate and all the different controversies, our polling is showing that the race really hasn't changed all that much," said Mukerji.

In last Saturday's poll, Tim Hudak's Tories were at 34 per cent, Dalton McGuinty's Liberals at 33 per cent, Andrea Horwath's New Democrats at 26 per cent, and Mike Schreiner's Greens at 6 per cent.

And on Sept. 17, the numbers were virtually identical: PC 36, Liberal 32, NDP 26 and Greens 6.

"The first part of the campaign is about persuasion and the last part really just turns out to be about getting your voters out. We have a pretty good sense of where the camps are. It's just how effective are they going to be in getting out their vote on Election Day," he said.

"There does seem to be a higher motivation among Tory voters to get out there and vote on Thursday. They realize there's a lot at stake for them."

Indeed, 77 per cent of Conservative-leaning respondents said they "will definitely" vote PC compared with 71 per cent of Liberal-inclined voters sticking with the Grits, 65 per cent of New Democrat supporters casting NDP ballots and 45 per cent of Greens remaining with their party.

"They really don't like Dalton McGuinty and unlike some of the other parties, they don't really see some other alternative for them," the pollster said.

Another factor encouraging Tories to cast ballots could also be increasing buzz about a minority Liberal government propped up by the NDP. Ontarians have not had a hung Parliament since the 1985 election.

"The Tory turnout looks higher than it did a few days ago and I think it might be because they realize this election might be in jeopardy for them," he said.

Demographics may slightly favour the Tories as well - 41 per cent of respondents 55 and older plan to vote PC compared to 36 per cent for the Liberals, 20 per cent for the New Democrats and 2 per cent for the Greens.

"Historically, people that turn out to vote tend to be older Canadians and that's an area where the Tories have an edge over the Liberals," noted Mukerji. Weather across the province is forecast to by sunny with temperatures in the high teens.

The online survey of 2,223 people was conducted between Sunday and Tuesday and is considered accurate to within 2.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

But there are ominous signs for the Conservatives, including the party's apparent failure to gain traction in Toronto, where they have not won a provincial riding since 1999.

They are mired in third place at 24 per cent in the city. The Liberals, who hold 19 of Toronto's 23 seats, are at 46 per cent. The New Democrats, who have four city seats, are at 27 per cent and the Greens are at 2 per cent.

"There's something to be said for vote efficiency. The Liberals are doing very well in the 416 area," noted Mukerji.

"Even though (the Tories) are at 36 per cent (overall), there's some pretty vote-rich areas, particularly in the 416, where they don't really seem to have made the inroads that they wanted to," he said.

In the 905 region, the Tories are ahead with 41 per cent to 29 per cent for the Liberals, 24 per cent for the NDP and 6 per cent for the Greens.

That suggests both the Conservatives and New Democrats could win GTA seats currently held by the Liberals.

In terms of gender - 40 per cent of men support the Conservatives compared to 31 per cent of women. In contrast, 33 per cent of men and 34 per cent of women back the Liberals. The NDP has 22 per cent of men and 30 per cent of women and the Greens have 4 per cent male and 5 per cent female.

Despite polls indicating his two terms of majority government are at risk, McGuinty still sounds confident, emphasizing he plans to "drive as hard as we can" in the final hours of the campaign.

"I'm after as many seats, as much support, as many MPPs as we can have in order to form a strong, stable Liberal government," he said in the Tory-held riding of Dufferin-Caledon.

Hudak also strived to remain upbeat, but his nervousness about the Liberals pulling off a win was obvious Tuesday as he raised time and again the spectre of a Grit-NDP coalition.

"Ontario families are getting behind the PCs because we're the only party that can actually bring change to Ontario," he said in Ottawa.

But in Toronto Horwath insisted she is "running to be in the top chair" - not to be kingmaker.

"You guys talk about that M-word, 'minority' but I talk about the M-word as 'momentum' and we still have it."

http://speakyourmind.thestar.com/thestar/get-talking/last-poll-of-the-ca...

The most recent poll from Nanos poll which came out yesterday, is showing the Ontario Libs dropping from 42% to 34%, or down 8% from the last election while the NDP has gone from 17% in the last election to 30% now, for an increase of 13%. This means that the NDP has effectively gained 21% on the Libs since the last Ontario election. If this momentum continues, and there is nothing to suggest it won't, the NDP could be overtaking the Libs by tomorrow nite.

Olly wrote:

 Sorry, that just doesn't square with what everyone I know in the environmental movement has said. And I know a lot. McGunity's viewed as a leader in this area.

You mean like Rick Smith and his merry ecowarriors at Environmental Defence? They practically wrote the act. What do you expect them to say? If you want to get a sense of how fairminded the commentary emanating from these people is, go visit his Facebook page and read what he has to say about the Ontario party.

The Green Energy Act is a a paternalistic boondoggle, like almost every other major policy initiative by Premier Dad. The environmental organisations you mention are very good at battling government on narrow issues but approximately useless when it comes to understanding the broad policy implications of their pet legislative projects, beyond their limited interests.

Pretty much every major environmental initiative of the Ontario Liberals has been strutured around centralized decision-making, diminished public access to the process, sweeping, unsubstantiated assumptions about outcomes that are untested against any real standard and an inflexible process that cannot adapt to evolving understanding on the front line. Application of the Green Energy Act to date has provided ample evidence that it does not provide a framework for informed discussion and proper evaluation. The offshore wind blowback should have knocked some sense into a few heads that seem incapable of understanding that many people of good conscience who genuinely support the search for alternative energy sources also see huge, real problems with the legislation as it is currently framed. Instead, the response has been to call all hands to the ramparts and denounce any and all critics as rampaging Visigoths intent on returning the province to the Stone Age.

This has not been the environmental movement's finest hour.

Edited to correct quote.

Actually my figures are correct as I used the Nanos polling results for Oc1 1-3.

Is there some reason Nanos didn't publish his polling results only for Oct 3?

No matter how much people want to cherrypick polls, and spin silliness with the help of the mainstream press, the NDP has made huge inroads on the Libs in Ontario since the last election, and I am quite optimistic about the Ontario NDP's chances tomorrow nite.

bekayne wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

The most recent poll from Nanos poll which came out yesterday, is showing the Ontario Libs dropping from 42% to 34%, or down 8% from the last election while the NDP has gone from 17% in the last election to 30% now, for an increase of 13%. This means that the NDP has effectively gained 21% on the Libs since the last Ontario election. If this momentum continues, and there is nothing to suggest it won't, the NDP could be overtaking the Libs by tomorrow nite.

 

No, this is the most recent poll from Nanos:

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/POLONT-F11-T519.pdf

According to Nanos, Saturday, October 1st was a fantastic day for polling for the NDP (see post #40 above).  But Sunday and Monday night's polling showed a significant shift away from the NDP towards the Liberals, with Tory support remaining stagnant.  If that trend continues until the end, then a lot of expected NDP gains in Windsor, Toronto, Ottawa and the North could be gone with the wind.

Olly wrote:

Sorry, that just doesn't square with what everyone I know in the environmental movement has said. And I know a lot. McGunity's viewed as a leader in this area.

True.  McGuinty's environmental plan has Dr. David Suzuki's endorsement!

Whether one likes McGuinty in other areas or not, one cannot deny his commitment to the environment.

Krago wrote:

According to Nanos, Saturday, October 1st was a fantastic day for polling for the NDP (see post #40 above).  But Sunday and Monday night's polling showed a significant shift away from the NDP towards the Liberals, with Tory support remaining stagnant.  If that trend continues until the end, then a lot of expected NDP gains in Windsor, Toronto, Ottawa and the North could be gone with the wind.

I think you're over interpreting what is probably statistical noise. I don't believe for one second that if saturday had been election day - the ONDP would have won 30% of the vote and that if the election had been the very next day they would have had 24%. We are talking about daily samples of about 250 decided voters and the level of day to day statistical noise is always going to be huge. If nanos ever released daily results of his polls during an entire election campaign - I can assure you it would look like a EKG reading with gyrations for every party on a daily basis.

Stockholm wrote:

Olly wrote:

I heard the opposite. Tories being told to vote NDP in swing ridings to get their cherished tax reductions.

I guess you missed all the hysterical articles and editorials in the national Post and the Globe and the Sun begging Ontarians not to give the NDP the balance of power since they might actually pressure the government to do something progressive. the pro-business press wants AUSTERITY and cutbacks. With a Liberal majority - they MIGHT get that. With the NDP having the balance of power - it will nix that whole agenda. the stakes are very high for Bay St - they cannot let the NDP have any influence.

That raises an interesting question for the next federal election as well.  Can the NDP establish itself as the main alternative to the Conservatives, or will many people make sure that doesn't happen?  That is why it may remain the case that the Liberals are the only party at the federal level who can defeat the Conservatives.

Debater wrote:

That raises an interesting question for the next federal election as well.  Can the NDP establish itself as the main alternative to the Conservatives, or will many people make sure that doesn't happen?  That is why it may remain the case that the Liberals are the only party at the federal level who can defeat the Conservatives.

You're way off topic. This is the Ontario forum for provincial topics.

And give it up with the desperate plugs for the Liberals.

OnTheLeft wrote:

Debater wrote:

That raises an interesting question for the next federal election as well.  Can the NDP establish itself as the main alternative to the Conservatives, or will many people make sure that doesn't happen?  That is why it may remain the case that the Liberals are the only party at the federal level who can defeat the Conservatives.

You're way off topic. This is the Ontario forum for provincial topics.

And give it up with the desperate plugs for the Liberals.

The issues are interconnected.  Have you not noticed that the Ontario election threads are full of comments about how the Ontario provincial results can affect the federal results and federal election?

It is very much on topic, but it's not something I plan to devote a lot of time to.

One of the things hurting Hudak in Toronto may be Rob Ford:

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/blogs/dailybrew/toronto-mayor-rob-ford-caught-u...

Olly wrote:

To me the most compelling poll result was Ekos' question about whether the government was going in the right direction. 56% said it was. People are supporting McGuinty because, whether they like him personally or not (and I think unlike Hudak he's more likable than unlikable), they like what he's done.

I think that may be a good point.  A lot of the underlying indicators in these polls seem to support McGuinty rather than Hudak.  Hudak is not in as weak a position as Ignatieff, but he faces some of the same challenges Iggy faced when going up against Harper:

Eg.  McGuinty is beating Hudak on the 'Best Premier' question, and the polls like the Abacus one above show many voters think the Ontario economy is doing allright.  Horwarth comes 1st on likeability, but McGuinty comes 2nd and Hudak 3rd, which means that Hudak is again finishing below McGuinty.  When you are trying to present yourself as more attractive than the incumbent, that is not encouraging.

"I guess you missed all the hysterical articles and editorials in the national Post and the Globe and the Sun begging Ontarians not to give the NDP the balance of power since they might actually pressure the government to do something progressive. the pro-business press wants AUSTERITY and cutbacks. With a Liberal majority - they MIGHT get that. With the NDP having the balance of power - it will nix that whole agenda. the stakes are very high for Bay St - they cannot let the NDP have any influence."

Oh come on, you know I'm just taking the piss. I did read those. That Ibbitson article was particularly funny. He sounded like raging lunatic. On the one hand the NDP's HST cut was blowing a hole in the much needed fiscal capacity of the province, on the other not continuing with the corporate tax reductions will send the Ontario economy the way of Greece. If the NDP had a policy of the sky being blue he would have argued green is the only way to go.

Olly wrote:

Oh come on, you know I'm just taking the piss. I did read those. That Ibbitson article was particularly funny. He sounded like raging lunatic. On the one hand the NDP's HST cut was blowing a hole in the much needed fiscal capacity of the province, on the other not continuing with the corporate tax reductions will send the Ontario economy the way of Greece. If the NDP had a policy of the sky being blue he would have argued green is the only way to go.

You know that the HST is actually part of the austerity packages being brought in by governments like Greece that are so unpopular? You do know that the GST/HST is massively unpopular in all its incarnations, and that BC recently voted to scrap it? You know there's a good reason that Brad Wall, very much in line ideologically with Harper, hasn't introduced the HST there?

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Olly wrote:

Oh come on, you know I'm just taking the piss. I did read those. That Ibbitson article was particularly funny. He sounded like raging lunatic. On the one hand the NDP's HST cut was blowing a hole in the much needed fiscal capacity of the province, on the other not continuing with the corporate tax reductions will send the Ontario economy the way of Greece. If the NDP had a policy of the sky being blue he would have argued green is the only way to go.

You know that the HST is actually part of the austerity packages being brought in by governments like Greece that are so unpopular? You do know that the GST/HST is massively unpopular in all its incarnations, and that BC recently voted to scrap it? You know there's a good reason that Brad Wall, very much in line ideologically with Harper, hasn't introduced the HST there?

You also know that Sweden, Denmark, etc. all have equivalent goods and services taxes, right?

U.S is one of the only OECD countries without one. Let's go that route to fund the state!

Final Forum Research poll:

Lib 37%, PC 36%, NDP 23%

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/provincialelection/article/1065061--liberal-minority-likely-majority-possible-poll-finds?bn=1

I believe Leger may be the absolute final poll of the campaign.

Actually encourage him, the Martinites, the Raes, and the Dosanjhs to continue big time, as you can see how effective they have been in helping out the Libs party fortunes.  ;)

People who have been around can easily and quickly spot who posters are fronting for.

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

I think that anti NDP vote which could be as high as 5% has been trying to figure out which way to go and has decided Hudak is out of the game. Add to that a 5% that is right wing enough to consider Hudak but is turned off by either the homophobic and immigrant attacks or turned off by the incompetence of making those attacks. 

Some of the people I've talked to this month find Hudak a bit creepy, so that may be a factor too.  Women in particular don't like him talking about his 3-year old daughter every 2 minutes.

Now of course all politicians are guilty of injecting their kids into the discussion from time to time to give themselves a good family image, and so McGuinty and Howarth also talk about their kids, but you're not supposed to do it 20 times!

In the debate Hudak kept saying "My 3-year old daughter does this" and "My 3-year old daughter does that".

And perhaps the most bizarre thing said in the whole debate:

"My 3-year old daughter can make acronyms out of fridge magnets!"

Robert Benzie of the Toronto Star tweeted that Angus Reid has final final numbers that say Libs 37, PC 33, NDP 26. Funny that they went into field for one more day and managed to turn a 3 point PC lead into a 4 point Liberal lead...I guess this is what they call CYA.

For what it's worth, Angus Reid called the Manitoba numbers almost on the nose. Their poll said NDP 46, PC 43, Liberal 8, Green 3, versus the actual results of NDP 46.0, PC 43.9, Liberal 7.5, Green 2.5.

Here we go again!

Horwath wades into orange crush again today in Guelph

http://www.guelphmercury.com/news/article/604638--horwath-wades-into-ora...