Might as well start this up:
Liberal 56 seats 38% votes
PC 35 seats 31% votes
NDP 16 seats 23% votes
Green/Other 0 seats 8% votes
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Ontario 2011 election seat projections
Wed, 2011-10-05 15:15
#1
Ontario 2011 election seat projections
Wed, 2011-10-05 15:40
#2
My predictions arepretty close to yours, robbie_dee, but I still believe a few people will check the NDP box since a PC government seems most unlikely:
Liberal - 52 seats (37% of the vote)
PC - 35 seats (31% of the vote)
NDP - 20 seats (25% of the vote)
Green/Other - 0 seat (7% of the vote)
Wed, 2011-10-05 18:04
#3
I hope nobody saw the one I posted earlier: Liberals 45, PCs 40, NDP 22. I think they need to be revised.
Wed, 2011-10-05 19:12
#4
My Projection for NDP Seats (in order of highest %win to lowest %win):
Hamilton Centre
Nickel Belt
Parkdale High Park
Toronto Danforth
Trinity Spadnia
Timmins James Bay
Beaches East York
Welland
Temiskaming - Cochrane
Hamilton East - Stoney Creek
Algoma Manitoulin
Thunder Bay - Aitikokan
Davenport
Hamilton Moutain
York South Weston
Ottawa Centre
London Fanshawe
Windsor West
Kenora - Rainey River
Oshawa
Thunder Bay - Superior North
Sudbury
Bramalea Gore Malton
Essex
Wed, 2011-10-05 19:27
#5
is Kenora-Rainy River expected to go Conservative then?
Wed, 2011-10-05 19:35
#6
I agree with robbie_dee's seat count, although I would put both the Liberal and PC popular vote just a shade higher and the Green/others just a shade lower.
Election Prediction Project is showing NDP gains in Algoma-Manitoulin, Thunder Bay-Atikokan, Timiskaming-Cochrane, London-Fanshawe, Windsor West, Hamilton Mountain, Oshawa and Ottawa Centre but strangely, they have moved York South-Weston, Davenport and Beaches-East York (!) from NDP to Too Close To Call. Is this just Milton Chan's Liberal partisanship showing through or has there been some dramatic shift in the 416?
is Kenora-Rainy River expected to go Conservative then?
For what it's worth, EPP says yes.
Wed, 2011-10-05 19:39
#7
It's probably both - Chan is probably letting a bit of his Liberal bias show through, but he may also be looking at the new polls which show big numbers for the Libs in the 416. But even if the Libs do well in 416, it's unlikely they will take Beaches-East York from Michael Prue.
I noticed that Oshawa, which had been projected to remain Conservative, is now NDP, yes. Perhaps that is to reflect a declining PC vote?
Wed, 2011-10-05 19:47
#8
I decided to check out the other prediction site. (308) It's fairly similar. It projects:
Libs 57 (36%)
PC 30 (33%)
NDP 20 (25%)
http://threehundredeight.blogspot.com/2011/10/liberals-up-in-ontario-but...
As in the EPP site, the NDP is projected to win Oshawa and Ottawa Centre, so perhaps a consensus is building for those ridings. 308 also says NDP will win Davenport, York South-Weston, Hamilton Mountain, London-Fanshawe, Algoma-Manitoulin, Thunder Bay-Atikokan, Thunder Bay-Superior North, and Timiskaming-Cochrane:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-c_bZPPbVm0A/Toxz7jJDGyI/AAAAAAAAFtE/Tcrf_cw9fn...
Wed, 2011-10-05 20:34
#9
Actually Angus Reid had it just about on the nose in Manitoba last nite so let's give credit where credit is due.
Popular Vote
Pollster / Date / NDP / PCs / Libs
Election / Year 2007 / 17% / 32% / 42%
Angus R / Oct 4/11 / 26% / 36% / 33%
The Liberals are down 9%, the PCs up 4%, and the NDP up 9%, which shows the Liberals as the biggest losers, and the NDP as the biggest winners compared to the previous election results.
Seats
Seats / Date / NDP / PCs / Libs
Election / 2007 / 10 / 26 / 71
Pred / Oct 6 /11 / 27 / 35 / 45
That's:
NDP - 27 seats
PCs - 35 seats
Libs - 45 seats
Total 107 seats
Wed, 2011-10-05 20:39
#10
Democratic Space projections
NDP – 20 seats (24.3%)
PC – 40 seats (34.4%)
Liberal – 47 seats (35.8%)
Green – 0 seats (4.2%)
Wed, 2011-10-05 20:49
#11
It's probably both - Chan is probably letting a bit of his Liberal bias show through, but he may also be looking at the new polls which show big numbers for the Libs in the 416. But even if the Libs do well in 416, it's unlikely they will take Beaches-East York from Michael Prue.
Well, Chan was a heavy hitter for Maria Minna. And to be fair, Prue's up against a heavy-hitter Liberal candidate, too--like, if *anyone* can defeat him...
Wed, 2011-10-05 21:01
#12
We already have an Ontario election thread.
Wed, 2011-10-05 21:01
#13
LIB - 56 (36.7)
PC - 31 (33.7)
ND - 20 (24.9)
GR - 0 (3.5)
IN - 0 (1.2)
NDP Pickups:
9. Welland
10. Kenora - Rainy River
11. York South-Weston
12. Davenport
13. Oshawa
14. Ottawa-Centre
15. Thunder Bay-Atikokan
16. Thunder Bay-Superior North
17. Timiskasing Cochrane
18. Algoma-Manitoulin
19. Hamilton-Mountain
20. London-Fanshawe
*Lose out on Windsor West, Brampton, Sudbury, Scarborough SW
*Cons shut out of 416