Continued from here.
Issues Pages:
NDP leadership 56
Wed, 2011-12-21 08:15
#1
Idealistic Prag...
NDP leadership 56
Wed, 2011-12-21 08:17
#2
Idealistic Prag...
Yes, Malcolm, you have correctly transcribed the results of the decided 159-N sub-sample of an NDP supporter 300-N sub-sample of a 1,100-N national sample IVR poll. Good job. What odds are you giving on its predictive capability?
Thank you. For god's sake, could someone finally do a real poll so that we can stop talking about this thing that should have never been reported in the first place?
Wed, 2011-12-21 08:37
#3
Really.
I doubt there will be a poll with any degree of reliability at all.
And parsing the scraps that are out there is, is...
Who is going to be able to do a poll of actual members? That is much more difficult than it sounds. I doubt it is feasible for outsiders.
The campaigns have the access to be able to do it in a straightforward fashion. One or two or some of them might be doing it, but we won't here about that.
Wed, 2011-12-21 11:58
#4
One of them did a full baseline survey already (that online poll), and others have done IVR polls of the members to test the horse-race. If you want to know the results, just watch who the candidates go after in January.
Wed, 2011-12-21 13:15
#5
Chisholm drops out of race...
Wed, 2011-12-21 13:21
#6
Robert is a great MP but you can't lead the party without being able to speak French and English. Watching someone you respect struggle as much as he did at the debate was pretty painful. I can't wait to see him back in the House on the front benches!
Wed, 2011-12-21 13:25
#7
It will be interesting to see where Chisholm supporters wind up...its just as well that he drop sout now so we save the party the embarrassment of having one person using simultaneous translation during the entire French debate in Quebec City...Eight is a tee ny bit less cumbersome than nine in the race!
Wed, 2011-12-21 13:32
#8
This almost seems like an Agatha Christie novel with an anachronistic/racist title. And then there were 8.
Wed, 2011-12-21 13:54
#9
I'm so relieved he had the sense to do this, both for the party's sake and his own standing in it. He could only have hurt himself and others by staying in.
Wed, 2011-12-21 13:56
#10
writer
Robert Chisholm drops out of NDP leadership race
Edited to add: Apologies – my computer is buggy, and didn't show the posts that were here already.
Wed, 2011-12-21 14:05
#11
Really.
I doubt there will be a poll with any degree of reliability at all.
And parsing the scraps that are out there is, is...
Who is going to be able to do a poll of actual members? That is much more difficult than it sounds. I doubt it is feasible for outsiders.
The campaigns have the access to be able to do it in a straightforward fashion. One or two or some of them might be doing it, but we won't here about that.
Is it not possible for Pollsters to get membership information from the party?
Wed, 2011-12-21 14:11
#12
I sure as hell hope not.
Wed, 2011-12-21 14:39
#13
Party won't hand over membership info to pollsters.
Wed, 2011-12-21 14:42
#14
Chisholm drops out of race...
http://www.robert2012.ca/thank-you.html
yesterday cbc had a piece about the habs hiring an english-only speaking coach (complete with pathetic statement from the guy). i immediately thought of chisholm, and how if he had any sense at all that would be the tipping point for him. maybe it was.
a pretty classy, though fluffy, drop out statement by mr. chisholm, i thought.
Wed, 2011-12-21 14:59
#15
Party won't hand over membership info to pollsters.
Is that because they just don't want to, or because they can't?
Wed, 2011-12-21 15:52
#16
To bad Chisholm didn't have the sense to not enter the race in the first place seeing he just ended up embarrassing himself in the debate.
Wed, 2011-12-21 16:06
#17
I found the arguments of the Chisolm campaign a bit strange, given his lack of French and our position in Quebec. The arguments I heard from the Chisolm campaign were:
- We need a leader who will be ready to lead March 25th
- The first job of the leader should be to go from coast to coast to coast and listen to what people want
I didn't disagree with those considerations but felt that he was highlighting his weaknesses rather than his strengths.
I was impressed with Chisolm at the BC Convention Town Hall. I took that as an opportunity to find out more about him and watch some of his other videos. He does really impress me and it seems like he must have piles of very relevant experience. I would hope he is given a significant role in turning the new opposition into an effective machine.
I'm glad we have him on board, and I'm sure others do too after learning about him, so in that sense his short campaign has been successful. nd I'm glad that he stepped out, as he didn't meet a very important requirement.
Wed, 2011-12-21 16:13
#18
I think Chisholm entered federal politics with the thought of succeeding Layton, he just didn't think it would be so soon.
Wed, 2011-12-21 16:16
#19
I would like to see the Martin Singh campaign either step it up a bit or follow Chisolm's lead and step out.
Martin Singh is impressive but I don't feel he's done much to demonstrate that he is a credible candidate for leader.
I like what he has had to say about pharmacare and small businesses. But I haven't heard much else. If he were really in it to win it, he'd be demonstrating some left wing credibility. A new take on small businesses might be a novel thing in the NDP, but so far he's just a novelty. He would fit in just as well in a Liberal leadership campaign. We're not the Liberals.
If Singh is planning to run in a byelection, take his pharmacare plan and run with it, set himself up as the go-to on pharmacare, that's great. And, his current run may have been enough to establish himself in that position.
But Martin Singh, either give us more or give us less. With no parliamentary experience and no electoral experience I'm having a hard time figuring out what a Martin Singh NDP would look like.
Wed, 2011-12-21 16:38
#20
I would like to see the Martin Singh campaign either step it up a bit or follow Chisolm's lead and step out.
Unfortunately I think it's less likely now that Singh will exit following Chisholm's departure, since he's the only remaining candidate from Atlantic Canada. (Megan Leslie, where art thou?) Also, remaining in and conducting a credible though losing campaign will only help him raise his stature in the party. Though that does seem a bit selfish, what with the party at stake and all.
Wed, 2011-12-21 16:42
#21
Robert Chisolm just made the best decision of his campaign; too bad it took so long. Now if only Singh and Dewar would follow suit.
Josee Legault essentially endorsed Mulcair for leader. In her year-end review, she wrote that " he is the man Stephen Harper does not want to see or hear as leader of the NDP" http://voir.ca/chroniques/voix-publique/2011/12/21/lannee-des-indignes-e...
She was on the left of the PQ, showed a lot of admiration for Jack Layton while he was leader, and I would guess her comments were made in good faith. (not like the Quebecor types, such as Eric Duhaime, who are endorsing Mulcair with the hope that he loses)
It seems more and more that all relatively symapthetic journalists are rooting for a Mulcair victory. So are most NDP voters. Until Broadbent & co. give reasons for opposing him, apart from "I say so", the other candidates have a long way to go....
Wed, 2011-12-21 17:03
#22
I don't get why Chisholm ran in the first place. It's obvious that you can't learn a 2nd language in the course of a few months campaign. It kind of makes him look a little silly to enter and then drop out. Reminds me of some of the Republican Presidential candidates.
Might give Mike Savage some more momentum to win back Dartmouth-Cole Harbour in the next election.
Wed, 2011-12-21 17:22
#23
Robert Chisolm just made the best decision of his campaign; too bad it took so long. Now if only Singh and Dewar would follow suit.
Why should Dewar follow suit?
Wed, 2011-12-21 17:27
#24
writer
Newfoundlander, have you been following Quebec commentary about candidates' ability in French?
Wed, 2011-12-21 17:32
#25
writer
Yes, because, years from now, the top-most concern of the electorate in that riding will be this run for leadership, which increased Chisholm's presence across the country, gave a national hearing for his priorities, highlighted the accomplishments of the NDP in NS, and presented Chisholm with the opportunity to share his ideas with other highly capable and accomplished party MPs, including the candidate who will ultimately win. A candidate he might help to win.
I have only heard praise of the man from people actively supporting other candidates, and directly from one candidate himself. While Chisholm's limits in French have halted this campaign, his other strengths have been noticed, and are likely to lead to an important role for him in the Official Opposition.
Ow. That hurts. Hopefully all will be forgiven by the time the next election rolls around.
Wed, 2011-12-21 17:46
#26
Singh doesnt really compare to Chisholm.
Robert clearly misjudged. Martin is in this eyes wide open. He knew he was a super long shot, and he has always been in this for wherever it goes.
Wed, 2011-12-21 17:52
#27
knownothing
I think Singh should stay in the race, he showed himself capable at the debate and is providing a unique perspective.
Chisholm at least made it easier for any candidate to drop out by breaking the ice.
Mulcair looks inevitable but lots of room for others to make statements and jockey for position.
Wed, 2011-12-21 17:57
#28
Idealistic Prag...
What's with this hoping all sorts of candidates will drop out? We all win if the NDP can produce lots of candidates of whom people tend to say: "I don't want him/her as leader, but I want him/her in cabinet."
Wed, 2011-12-21 17:57
#29
Newfoundlander, have you been following Quebec commentary about candidates' ability in French?
He can speak French, and is probably the most electable in English Canada which represents 75% of seats in the House of Commons.
Ian Capstick just said on Power and Politics that Brian Topp may drop off before the vote and that going in to the holiday season Peggy Nash and Paul Dewar have a lot of momentum.
Wed, 2011-12-21 18:03
#30
Now there is a shrewd prediction to make for someone cultivating their value as media pundit: 'Topp may drop out'.
If he does, Capstick is a prescient genius.
If he does not, who remembers? [and he did say 'might']
Wed, 2011-12-21 18:05
#31
writer
I recommend that you review what francophones have to say about Dewar's ability in French. My own feeling is that's whose judgment really counts with this question. It's not the only consideration to apply, but it is somewhat relevant, given the current make-up of the party in the House of Commons, and its ongoing ambitions in Quebec.
Please note that I don't write this "hoping all sorts of candidates will drop out" but to answer the question Newfoundlander raised. Dewar's limits in French could be argued as a reason for him to drop out.
It is an argument. It is not my argument.
Wed, 2011-12-21 18:06
#32
Now there is a shrewd prediction to make for someone cultivating their value as media pundit: 'Topp may drop out'.
If he does, Capstick is a prescient genius.
If he does not, who remembers? [and he did say 'might']
He said it was a bold prediction but from what he has heard from others, and after reviewing the debates again, he said that he could step down in an effort to keep Mulcair from winning.
Wed, 2011-12-21 18:20
#33
He said it was a bold prediction but from what he has heard from others, and after reviewing the debates again, he said that he could step down in an effort to keep Mulcair from winning.
Like I said, Capstick is stirring the pot and promoting Capstick. Possibly, slightly possibly, also some agenda bigger than himself, though I doubt that.
Capstick hears every rumour under the sun, and many that are equally credible to this one.
He is choosing what he repeats.
If Topp ever chooses to support someone else, it will of course be that he did it to stop Mulcair, not because given it could not be him, he wanted that candidate to lead the party.
Wed, 2011-12-21 18:23
#34
I think Chisholm entered federal politics with the thought of succeeding Layton, he just didn't think it would be so soon.
Even without counter-information, this would only be a guess.
But a little over a year ago, Robert had not even commited to running in Dartmouth. Not exactly consistent with ambitions at that point on being the succesor.
Wed, 2011-12-21 18:37
#35
I think that the idea that Topp would drop out is totally absurd. My sense is that he is in it to win and is still quite confident of winning. With regard to Capstick all I can say is "those who speak do not know. Those who know do not speak."
Wed, 2011-12-21 18:42
#36
I heard Capstick as well. The disturbing aspect for me was that he confirmed there was an Anyone But Tom movement. In fact when he was asked about it he was very dismissive of the notion that there was any doubt about whether it existed.
One of the other panelists started to ask about how this would be perceived in Quebec but didn't get an answer.
Capstick stressed that because of the preferential ballot any throwing of support would have to happen well before the convention.
I hope Capstick is wrong. If not we may be heading into a very destructive process.
Wed, 2011-12-21 18:45
#37
He said it was a bold prediction but from what he has heard from others, and after reviewing the debates again, he said that he could step down in an effort to keep Mulcair from winning.
A silly idea. If I were to support Topp on the first round, but he stepped down, my second choice would be Mulcair, and I doubt I am alone.
Wed, 2011-12-21 18:46
#38
OnTheLeft
From thread 54:
Comparing Topp and Nash, I would say that Topp has a record of political and organizational victories. Does Nash? It's one thing to have lots of experience as a negotiator, it's another to have a lot of experience as a winning negotiator.
Peggy negotiated the 2005 Ford Canada pact, which was approved in an overwhelming majority by the CAW. She was also the first woman to ever negotiate such a pact.
Great article from CBC online, didn't see it posted here:
The NDP can do a better job managing the economy than the Conservatives, according to Peggy Nash, who is running for the leadership of her party and is out to prove her claim.
Nash acknowledges the NDP has a reputation for being focused on social issues and weak on economic ones, but the Toronto MP says she can help change public perception by encouraging her party to shine on the finance file.
"In the next federal election, we have to be able to convince Canadians that we are the best party to manage the economy and to provide the kind of good stable jobs that people are looking for," Nash said in a recent interview in her Ottawa office.
"In the past, sometimes the NDP had shied away from addressing economic issues. In my view, it is the central issue and ought to be our strength," she said. Social democratic governments in Canada, and around the world, have solid records on reducing inequality and creating economic stability, she said.
But the current Official Opposition party has never governed at the federal level, and Nash said it needs to tackle the economy in a bigger way to show Canadians it can handle it.
"For us to be elected government in 2015, we have to not just make the case, but to show Canadians that in fact we have a better approach," she said.
Nash, 60, is pitching herself in the campaign to succeed Jack Layton as the candidate with the economic expertise who can solidify NDP gains in the last election as it prepares for the next one, the MP who can lead a breakthrough from opposition to government.
Nash says she can lead NDP through building stage
"To me, I just feel that the qualities that I bring are the qualities that the party needs right now," she said, offering that she is a bridge builder, someone who listens and finds common ground.
With a diverse caucus that numbers 102 MPs, a majority of them new to the House, Nash said the party needs someone to bring the party together and lead them in "a big building job."
"We need to confirm with the 4.5 million Canadians who voted for us that that was a good decision, that it was worth it, and they need to stay with us.
"And we need to convince more Canadians to come with us - that we can win and we can govern in a way that better represents the interests of the majority of Canadians," she said.
Nash, who grew up in the Toronto suburb of Rexdale, rejoined the caucus after winning her Parkdale-High Park seat back from Liberal Gerard Kennedy in the May election. He had taken the seat in 2008, two years after she had won it for the first time. Following her defeat to Kennedy, Nash returned to her previous job as a negotiator with Canadian Auto Workers union where she had spent most of her career before politics.
Her contract negotiations with auto companies gave her experience working with industry and the private sector, and helped build her understanding of how the economy operates.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2011/12/14/pol-peggy-nash-profile.html
Wed, 2011-12-21 19:07
#39
OnTheLeft
The disturbing aspect for me was that he confirmed there was an Anyone But Tom movement. In fact when he was asked about it he was very dismissive of the notion that there was any doubt about whether it existed.
If it's true then it doesn't surprise me at all, seeing as Mulcair has been perceived as centrist or a moderate, while the NDP have done enough proverbial movement towards the centre.
If anything, especially in light of the worldwide Occupy movement which is slowly but surely moving the political centre leftwards, we need to follow suit.
Wed, 2011-12-21 19:08
#40
First of all, as classy as Robert Chisholm was today, a lot of the very unclassy discussion of his decision above did not meet the standard he himself set. It's his day. You don't rub salt in the wound. Very unworthy and undeserved.
Second, none of Capstick's predictions about the race so far have been right. He said Ashton would not run: wrong. He said Chisholm would not run: wrong. He seems to think his role on that show is to be controversial. Whatev. I think Stockholm is right that the ones who know don't say.
It must be something about Twitter that makes people want to jump straight to the end game on things all the time. Relax and slow down, people: getting there is half the battle, and also more than half the fun.
Wed, 2011-12-21 19:12
#41
Obviously Topp's campaign is not doing well with the grassroots, but claiming Dewar and Nash have momentum is just silly.
Neither has many important endorsers and neither had many commentators saying they impressed in the first debate. There don't seem to be any visible signs their campaigns are gaining steam heading into the holiday break.
Mulcair on the other hand was the only candidate on everyone's list of those who did well in the debates, has tons of endorsers and seems to be gaining more momentum by the day. I think that the "inevitability" talk (even talk that people are starting to get that impression) is an overstatement, but Mulcair is definitely the candidate with the momentum.
In contrast to what Capstick said, if anything, it seems to be the fact that both Topp and Dewar are not doing well that is helping Nash.
Wed, 2011-12-21 19:24
#42
OnTheLeft
Obviously Topp's campaign is not doing well with the grassroots, but claiming Dewar and Nash have momentum is just silly. Neither has many important endorsers and neither had many commentators saying they impressed in the first debate.
No one really has momentum yet, it's far too early in the race. As for endorsements, well it comes down to who the membership chooses to lead the party. As for the first debate, no one came out a clear winner and Nash, Ashton, Mulcair and Cullen all performed well.
What is helping Nash is her experience and credibility as NDP President and as Industry and Finance Critic, her skill set and lengthy history as a social and political activist, and her involvement in organized labour.
Wed, 2011-12-21 19:32
#43
Now there is a shrewd prediction to make for someone cultivating their value as media pundit: 'Topp may drop out'.
If he does, Capstick is a prescient genius.
If he does not, who remembers? [and he did say 'might']
I just hope somebody remembers that I said it before Capstick, a few threads ago. 
Wed, 2011-12-21 20:09
#44
And just because Chisholm blew the leadership doesn't mean he blew his seat (memo to Debater re a Mike Savage comeback).
Anyway, I'm curious to see where his top endorser Howard Hampton'll go (on geographic grounds, it's easy to auto-assume Niki Ashton--note: "easy to auto-assume")
Wed, 2011-12-21 20:13
#45
And just because Chisholm blew the leadership doesn't mean he blew his seat (memo to Debater re a Mike Savage comeback).
Anyway, I'm curious to see where his top endorser Howard Hampton'll go (on geographic grounds, it's easy to auto-assume Niki Ashton--note: "easy to auto-assume")
Savage is the frontrunner to be mayor of Halifax anyways, though this seat is still a potential pickup for the Liberals seeing Chisholm just squeaked out a win.
Wed, 2011-12-21 20:37
#46
Just watched Captsick, and I am schocked at what he said. He's been covertly supporting Topp from the beginning http://podcast.cbc.ca/mp3/podcasts/ppwarroom_20110823_15231.mp3
Why would he be spreading rumours that Topp might quit the race as part of an "Anybody but Mulcair" mov't? The scenario he evokes does not pass the "common-sense" test. From the start of the campaign, Topp has portrayed himself as the only candidate, except Mulcair, who could hold Quebec. That's why he joined the race, with the support of Broadbent & co, instead of rallying behind an experienced English Canhadian MP such as Peggy Nash. The idea that the candidate with the most "high-profile" endorsements would abadnon the race before the convention seems extremely far-fetched.
So what's Capstick's agenda? Yes, he could just be trying to make noise, but I somehow doubt it. (especially consdering the similarly provocative comments that I have referenced). My idea is that he might be trying to telegraph to Mulcair supporters that their candidate can't win (not enough support past the first ballot), and that they had better rally behind their most logical second choice (Topp), thereby preventing him from getting out of the race. Does that make sense?
Wed, 2011-12-21 20:39
#47
Obviously Topp's campaign is not doing well with the grassroots, but claiming Dewar and Nash have momentum is just silly. Neither has many important endorsers and neither had many commentators saying they impressed in the first debate.No one really has momentum yet, it's far too early in the race. As for endorsements, well it comes down to who the membership chooses to lead the party. As for the first debate, no one came out a clear winner and Nash, Ashton, Mulcair and Cullen all performed well.
What is helping Nash is her experience and credibility as NDP President and as Industry and Finance Critic, her skill set and lengthy history as a social and political activist, and her involvement in organized labour.
Some campaigns certainly DON'T seem to have momentum. If it's not too early to say that, then I don't think it's too early to say that some do. Of course things like endorsements and reviews of the candidates' debate performances only mean so much (and it would be great to see a poll of the membership instead), but based on the information we have available to us I think the conclusions I've drawn are quite fair. The conclusions Capstick has drawn seem wildly off.
As for the debates, Cullen, Ashton and Nash were all mentioned by at least a few commentators as having done well in the first debate, but (as I wrote) Mulcair was mentioned by every commentator (or very close to it). Saying that one candidate "won" the debate is too simplistic, but when one particular candidate keeps getting singled out as one of the best performers that's a big, big positive.
As for what's helping Nash, many of the candidates have skills and experience similar to what you've outline above. Many of the candidates have held important positions in the party. Many of them have a long history of social and political activism. Many of them have been involved in the union movement and other civil society organizations. I would argue Topp has nearly as impressive credentials in these regards as Nash, Dewar has about the same level of experience and--as a former cabinet minister and Quebec Lieutenant during the Orange Wave--I would argue Mulcair has significantly more. But even if you disagree, those are all qualities we knew about when the race began.
What's helping Peggy Nash RIGHT NOW is a very different question. And what is helping her right now seems to be that two of the other candidates she's up against seem to have significant problems with their own campaigns (Dewar's lack of ability in French and Topp's lack of experience/ability as a candidate). Nash's resume is well known. There's no reason to believe that is helping relative to the position she was in when she entered the race. And her campaign simply doesn't seem to be doing much. Few significant endorsements. No huge events that I've heard of. Not a particularly active tour. No attention grabbing policy announcements. No compeling messaging that I've seen. That's not to say we won't see more from her campaign later on. And none of the campaigns have been super active. But that doesn't change the fact that it appears that the perception her campaign is gaining ground is based mostly on the fact that two of her rivals seem to have lost ground.
Wed, 2011-12-21 20:58
#48
It really is still early in the race. As part of his plan Dewar has said he won't be announcing caucus support till January, which is quite different than what Mulcair and Topp did. We really haven't seen a lot of the big names within caucus announce who they are supporting yet.
Wed, 2011-12-21 21:07
#49
I'm curious to see where his top endorser Howard Hampton'll go . . .
Yes, that will be very interesting. If he goes to Dewar, it will suggest there is a stop Mulcair sentiment. If he goes to Mulcair, then no. (I'll bet against him going to Nash. And if he was going to go to Topp, wouldn't he have done so already? Still, you never know.)
Wed, 2011-12-21 21:10
#50
Mulcair gains support of two high-profile P.E.I. New Democrats
http://www.theguardian.pe.ca/News/Local/2011-12-21/article-2844408/Mulca...
Wed, 2011-12-21 21:11
#51
I'm curious to see where his top endorser Howard Hampton'll go . . .
Yes, that will be very interesting. If he goes to Dewar, it will suggest there is a stop Mulcair sentiment. If he goes to Mulcair, then no. (I'll bet against him going to Nash. And if he was going to go to Topp, wouldn't he have done so already? Still, you never know.)
He endorsed Chisholm. I would say who he endorses next will tell us next to nothing about the larger dynamics of the race.