Latest Polling Thread - June 2, 2012

I agree - perhaps we should try and compile it here.

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A bit dated perhaps but not bad source

http://www.electionalmanac.com/ea/canada-election-polls/

David Young wrote:

Is there one source where anyone can go to see all the latest poll results?

It can be a little confusing to see so many different polling results coming out over long periods of time.

 

David,

You can see all the polls since the last election on this page:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/42nd_Canadian_federal_election

I visit this page regularly to see the trends because one poll isn`t enough to have some assumptions.

Very Far Away wrote:

David Young wrote:

Is there one source where anyone can go to see all the latest poll results?

It can be a little confusing to see so many different polling results coming out over long periods of time.

David,

You can see all the polls since the last election on this page:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/42nd_Canadian_federal_election

I visit this page regularly to see the trends because one poll isn`t enough to have some assumptions.

Thanks for the link; it's just what I was looking for!

I think the next election will be polarized and it is the Cons that would need the split rather than the NDP to take the ridings-- or the phenomenon could work both ways. I would not worry about this and the deader the Liberals are the better the chance the NDP can beat the Cons.

I think that there will be fewer vote-split ridings in the next election than there has been in decades with likely the highest number of clear victories we have seen in a long while. The Liberals will hang on to some seats with likely very strong results in those limited places but are less likely to be a factor in many other ridings which may turn in to straight up contests between the Cons and the NDP.

The next election in my view is being fought already and we see how.

The Cons are likely going to hold back until the late stages on direct attacks on the NDP. The reason is they were over used on the Liberals and more of the right wing media can be used to go after the NDP.

The fight is primarily stories from the right wing press -- likely some planted and fed by the Cons -- to smear the NDP as not rational and extremist. This will increase over the next couple years.

the winner of the next election will be decided based on whether the voting public will see through this rain of crap and recognize it for what it is.

If the NDP were smart it would call for the labelling of all political commentators who have party connections (including their own). It could even go so far as to make and promote a list of the names of the Conservative party-connected press and call them out for what they are-- labelling them by putting their names beside their connection to the conservative party. Now by this I do not mean right wing hacks-- I mean the large number of commentators who are actual Conservatives who have been former MPs or employees of the party. There are now a large number in the press and many of the public are not aware of that now that most of the media no longer have the integrity to publish such connections with their opinion pieces. they might want to also publish a list of those with close ties to big business.

The NDP should understand the propaganda war that has already started and address it directly -- to pretend it does not exist will eventually mean to succumb to it.

People have a right to this information.

Otherwise-- perhaps someone here with enough time could start assembling the list and doing the research. An alphabetical list of the main opinion makers who have loyalties to other than the media or public would be incredibly useful to combatt this 'air" war that we are already seeing. Anyone up for that?

In fairness it needs to acknowledge commentators (Capstick, Topp etc. who are associated with us) and those associated with the Liberals. It would be "an armchair guide" to propaganda. Even some journalists might find it useful-- and enlightening. the existence of it would be a news story.

I would be interested in this and it could be a part time thing but I think it would require some resources and would include some cost so I would need to be funded. Still, we have talked about trying to start up a left of centre media-- a "Citizen's Guide to Propaganda" would be a lot less costly and would encourage people to think twice about who and what they are hearing and seeing.

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

The NDP should understand the propaganda war that has already started and address it directly -- to pretend it does not exist will eventually mean to succumb to it.

Couldn't agree more. There's some evidence that the party gets this, but also some evidence that it is unwilling to confront the breadth and depth of the problem. But there is only so much that can be done to change the institutional hostility. If the NDP is going to win, it is always going to be in spite of the media.

PROVINCIAL GOVERNMENTS

Wall Best, Dexter Worst as Canadians Rate Their Premiers

Alison Redford increases her standing in Alberta, while a decline is noticeable for Newfoundland and Labrador’s Kathy Dunderdale.

http://www.angus-reid.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/2012.06.07_Premiers...

A really very good idea, Sean.

I would suggest, though, that your latest working-title iteration, (perhaps just offhand, albeit), a "Citizen's Guide to Propanganda", is too lefty-sounding. I'm assuming that you'd be intending this to be countering the excesses of the rightish media, but still being fairly objective-as-possible and even-handed, so as to be credible and effective. Your analysis seems to generally roll that way.

So, my two-cents anyway, I liked the 'Armchair' bit you initially had. "An Armchair Guide to ...", to something ... 'Bias'? Not quite ... To 'Who's Talking For Who in the Media'? ... 'Talking Points: An Armchair Guide to Who's Talking For Who(m) in the Canadian Media / Punditscape'?  I don't know.

Anyways, just throwing out some constructive criticism. I think it's a great idea, though.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/nanos-poll-results-good-new...

Doctor Manderly wrote:

If the Federal NDP really wants to win power..

 

....they need to a find a way to gain a sympathetic media outlet(s)....  

 

  They also need a team of online posters like Conservatives have...

 

sorry but the NDP does want to win power and must do so without any sort of major media outlet.

All the media is big business now that we have had decades of "rationalization" and buyouts.

This ship sailed when Canada let business that were non-media to buy up the media. At present levels of concentration you are effectively saying the NDP needs big business endorsement to win.

I think winning even against the media is a challenge but must it be done. There are some things we can do to help ourselves-- some of that is being as friendly as we can to many potentially friendly media reporters; educating the public about what is out there-- tackling some of this head on. Admitting we have a problem and getting the public to admit that we have structural problems in the media is another thing.

"The armchair guide to public commentators and who they stand for" could be an important element.

They aren't happy over at the G&M today; the posters are flipping out.

Another poll out today shows Darrell Dexter as the least most popular Altantic Premier. I can't find it now. It was on the Winnipeg  Freep website. He was at 27%. Tell me again why austerity is a good idea?

ETA: Check the Huff Post

Perhaps Canadians are starting to get wise regarding the media.....If this is the best the media can do since the last poll, they are losing there grip. They had there panels stacked ..they had every oil sand promotter fron center ..they dismissed the left at nauseum, they pumped up conservative MP's that cheat to win like good year blimps..

No question in my mind they are bought owned , sold, run and serve the Conservatives and are biased to point of obvious..between Rex and Evan on one network....the appointing of a con news propagandist to the senate on another network and then there are the reptillians with lizard eyes on another network

There is robo calls then there are Robo-Networks

New http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zky2bn0Gtyg New

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J-QvXax88J8

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q0eQgUpkJ1Q

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ns8LD5Q8ecc

Corporate Research Associates (CRA) has provincial polls today for each of the Atlantic provinces

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/06/08/atlantic-canada-premiers-support-poll-darrell-dexter_n_1579598.html?ref=canada

NorthReport wrote:

It is concerning to see the Liberals polling so high in the Nanos Poll. That definitely needs to be addressed.

That may be just Nanos' poll bias. Everyone else has them at 20% or below I think.

so at the provincial level, ndp is ahead or gaining in every province, including 2nd place in ontario, seats again in nb, solid re-election in ns, big win in bc, and in the mid-teens in pei for the first time in the history of polling.  basically, we're slowly becoming the natural governing or natural opposition party everywhere but alberta and the rock (and quebec, obviously).  the rock we can crack but the recent elections there hold real lessons (esp for nb and pei), ontario will probably require a leadership change, and sask is has just down some sort of vortex.  but the trend is amazing.

If the Federal NDP really wants to win power..

....they need to a work on  gaining more a sympathetic media outlet(s)....  

 OR at least recruit a huge a team of online posters like Conservatives have.. to counter the spin...it could be volunteers

Actually I think we have the common person on our side, because the paid posters are so blatently partisan it makes ANY points they say sound beyond the pale, even ones that aren't bad. The challenge team orange has is making sure everyone recognizes they are DOING SOMETHING. Unlike the liberals. Make sure there is this divide and people knwo the libs did little to oppose harper while the NDP have been fairly consistant over all. Right now the cons are howling about union sponsourship of an NDP event. Which is nothing compared to the corporate sponsors they use, but the anti union attitude fed by the media whips up the old hate.

Our biggest ally is the business press. These greedy pigs continue to gorge themselves while the 99%*so to speak) are getting shafted at every turn. The bank bailout in spain is a fine example. People are also empowered with social media. Occupy would likely not have been possible otherwise. It highlights that people CAN have an effect. This encourages more to get involved by not feeling isolated. Many say they didnt accomplish any thing, no they didnt do much but highlight how the 1% are screwing everyone else. So each business story about million dollar bonuses to execs while layoffs to the workers after stock prices tank shows the rest of us that they only care about themselves.

That does far more than we could do. If you want to write in to media, call and organize grouops. Its still a good idea. You need people to feel they aren't alone on the issues. But a propoganda wing spouting off NDP talking points would likely hurt us in the end. Non partisan comments showing how bad the cons, and to a degree the libs are will help us, but don't waste your breath on the libs. Like advertising don't give them any press. If they seem irrelevant it is better than villainizing them.

Its how the managed to pull NDPers away each and every election. I know some think that people vote on principal, a lot vote for popularity.  That is the reason the NDP did so well in quebec. They could be seen as a viable alternative. quebec may have saved this country by making the NDP a real alternative to vote for. Lets just hope they don't go the way of the labour party in the UK. Otherwise I will be running for a real left party.

Policywonk wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

It is concerning to see the Liberals polling so high in the Nanos Poll. That definitely needs to be addressed.

That may be just Nanos' poll bias. Everyone else has them at 20% or below I think.

Do not assume that the Liberals will remain at that level of support indefinitely.  While the NDP is likely to remain ahead of the Liberals for the immediate future, next year's Liberal Convention and new Leadership may create a gradual re-building of Liberal support.  As Chantal Hébert said in last week's column, things are still in a state of flux, and it remains to be seen whether Mulcair's honeymoon period can last and whether the polling numbers get shifted around somewhat in the years to come.

Incidentally, why is it 'concerning' to see the Liberals polling higher?  Why does the NDP want them to do badly?  The NDP cannot win all the ridings from the Conservatives - there are some ridings where only the Liberals can stop the Conservatives.

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Policywonk wrote:

bekayne wrote:

Corporate Research Associates (CRA) has provincial polls today for each of the Atlantic provinces

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/06/08/atlantic-canada-premiers-support-poll-darrell-dexter_n_1579598.html?ref=canada

Luckily the Party is polling ahead of Dexter, but the NS NDP has not been particularly progressive in government (or environmentally sound either).

Unfortunately, the leader has an effect on the party fortunes, and if a leader polls behind the party that party is in serious trouble.

No. Dexter needs to be replaced. Now.

Jeez, one poll shows that NDP only two points ahead during midterm doldrums and suddenly the leader needs to be replaced. I guess with your logic the Manitoba NDP should have dumped Selinger the day after one poll showed the PCs in the lead...of course Selinger went on to easily win the election. Also, I guess Layton would have had to be dumped about 20 odd times, every time a poll had the NDP below 18% in the olden days!

Debater wrote:

Policywonk wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

It is concerning to see the Liberals polling so high in the Nanos Poll. That definitely needs to be addressed.

That may be just Nanos' poll bias. Everyone else has them at 20% or below I think.

Do not assume that the Liberals will remain at that level of support indefinitely.  While the NDP is likely to remain ahead of the Liberals for the immediate future, next year's Liberal Convention and new Leadership may create a gradual re-building of Liberal support.  As Chantal Hébert said in last week's column, things are still in a state of flux, and it remains to be seen whether Mulcair's honeymoon period can last and whether the polling numbers get shifted around somewhat in the years to come.

Incidentally, why is it 'concerning' to see the Liberals polling higher?  Why does the NDP want them to do badly?  The NDP cannot win all the ridings from the Conservatives - there are some ridings where only the Liberals can stop the Conservatives.

You keep telling yourself that Debater. Go ahead, it'll make you feel better.

Stockholm wrote:

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Policywonk wrote:

bekayne wrote:

Corporate Research Associates (CRA) has provincial polls today for each of the Atlantic provinces

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/06/08/atlantic-canada-premiers-support-poll-darrell-dexter_n_1579598.html?ref=canada

Luckily the Party is polling ahead of Dexter, but the NS NDP has not been particularly progressive in government (or environmentally sound either).

Unfortunately, the leader has an effect on the party fortunes, and if a leader polls behind the party that party is in serious trouble.

No. Dexter needs to be replaced. Now.

Jeez, one poll shows that NDP only two points ahead during midterm doldrums and suddenly the leader needs to be replaced. I guess with your logic the Manitoba NDP should have dumped Selinger the day after one poll showed the PCs in the lead...of course Selinger went on to easily win the election.

Selinger did not win that election, McFadyen and the PCs lost it. There's a big difference between the 2.

Unity candidates against Tories urged by local groups

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/06/12/pol-grassroots-unite-le...

Dexter has had his ups and downs. He had a post win honeymoon, the he took a tumble after raising the HSt! Then his popularity surged this past winter, now another drop...we shall see where things are at next year. McGuinty has often been the most hated premier in Canada and yet he is still running Ontario and has won three elections.