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BC polls, thread #2
Fri, 2012-02-03 12:15
#1
BC polls, thread #2
Fri, 2012-02-03 12:21
#2
So its sounding like the BCL is pretty resigned to the loss of Port Moody then... when are the by-elections?
I think the more interesting one is Chilliwack, the Globe even have an articule saying the NDP could win it! i knew it would be competative but that would be a big win for the Dix crew and some foreshadowing of what might happen during the election in equally conservative ridings
Interesting about the greens how they tend to en-mass move to the NDP; here in ON they tend to break apart more equally to the NDP and Liberals and even the PCs but i think that was the pre-tea party-esque campaign we saw in Oct.
It's a combination of factors. In the 2009 election, Carole James took a mystifying "Axe The (Carbon) Tax" stance which alienated many environmentalists. The right-and-some-centre-green voters were happy with the BC Liberals. The left-green voters were upset with the NDP and either stayed home or voted Green. Today the NDP has recanted on the carbon tax and now they promise to use the revenues for pro-enviro aims rather than the BC Libs' revenue-neutral tax cuts. The Libs are looking a lot less green as they hem and haw over what to do about Northern Gateway. So I think we could see the 2009 left-Greens and stay-at-homers coming back into the fold for 2013, while right-Greens are the ones who will either stay home or vote Green.
Thu, 2012-05-03 22:51
#3
Fri, 2012-05-04 01:24
#4
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/bc-liberals-would-face-thra...
NDP 48%
Lib 23%
BCCon 19%. The NDP is 6 points ahead of the sum total of the dear old "free-enterprise coalition".
Christy can rename this year's model as many times as she wants, and install as many replacement parts as she'd like... but it's still going to be an old rustbucket that won't take her anywhere without falling apart.
Fri, 2012-05-04 13:15
#5
It seems that it will be a landslide for NDP if things keep going this way.
Fri, 2012-05-04 13:26
#6
And what a "free enterprise coalition" it would be:
There is higher support among the B.C. Liberal faithful for a merger with the B.C. Conservatives – roughly three in five of B.C. Liberal supporters like the idea. But that concept faces a hurdle as well – fewer than one in four B.C. Conservatives want a merger.
So in other words, according to these numbers, this "Free Enterprise Coalition" party would have 18.55% of the vote? Sure, go for it then.
I guess I could be very generous and give the hypothetical party a few more voters who aren't crazy about the new party and have amnesia that the same group are still actually in charge of it. So... in that scenario let's give this "Free Enterprise Coalition" party 27.8% of the vote. That's still a massive butt kicking.
Mon, 2012-05-14 21:43
#7
Last Angus Reid Poll:
NDP 50%
Lib 23%
Cons 19%
Green 6%
Beautiful.
Tue, 2012-05-15 00:42
#8
One thing I do have to wonder - do they just cut undecided voters out of the count?
Because I wonder, if there are Lib-Con minded voters who are disenchanted with both, they may be responding "undecided" which comparatively pumps up the NDP numbers.
Tue, 2012-05-15 02:36
#9
There are always undecided voters that are removed from the count and typically the reported number is the decided voters number, isn't it? In this poll it was somewhere around 15% of the respondents who are undecided. Is this an unreasonable number?
What I find odd is the reporting on this poll saying the undecided jump up to 35% or so if a "Free Enterprise" coalition is on offer, with an NDP number around 35% and the "Free Enterprise" Party is around 20%, really meaning the NDP is at about 54% of decided voters, yet somehow a huge chunk of the NDP's former supporters are considering voting for a Clark or Falcon like party even if it just changes it's name? (At least this is what I remember reading). It kind of makes me question the 'art' of polling and think that all I know is that the NDP is well ahead, but how much is debatable.
The details were posted in the Canadian Politics and if wasn't a pain in the ass to post this from my iPad (1st world problems, I know), then I'd link to it.
Tue, 2012-05-15 15:50
#10
So this is the poll.
The media spin and Ipsos-Reid's spin was to compare apples and oranges. When it comes to the political scene right now they reported the decided/leaners number (as per normal practice), but when it came to the political scene as it would be they reported the raw numbers without accounting for decided/leaners.
This is deceptive and intentionally tries to make the case for a merged party, because it isn't comparing similar things at all and makes a 2:1 advantage look like a lead that is potentially shaky. Now it's true, the votes aren't counted until they're counted, but the durability of the lead shouldn't be scoffed at by allegedly neutral news reporters or polling companies (I know they're not neutral, I'm not deluded).
I also find it odd that people who are considering voting for the NDP now would all the sudden vote for the Liberals under a new name, which is what a "Free Enterprise Coalition" would be. I mean come on, Kevin Falcon and Christy Clark have been in the government for years. A new name for the Liberals wouldn't change shit and the spin wouldn't hold up during the scrutiny of a campaign. While it's something that would need to be addressed when (okay, if) the NDP wins next year, because the right will likely re-unite ASAP after a year or two of "socialist" government, I think the numbers of people considering the Liberals in all but name only are hard to believe right now.
So, what would've been a more equivlent comparison would be to report the following. Note I've rounded to the nearest number so not all numbers add up to 100%.
With Christy Clark leading the right decided voters (Undecided 35%)
NDP 51% (33%)
"Free Enterprise Coalition" 31% (20%)
Green 6% (4%)
Other/Independent 11% (7%)
With Kevin Falcon leading the right decided voters (Undecided 34%)
NDP 50% (33%)
"Free Enterprise Coalition" 32% (21%)
Green 6% (4%)
Other/Independent 12% (8%)
With John Cummins leading the right decided voters (Undecided 38%)
NDP 52% (32%)
"Free Enterprise Coalition" 27% (17%)
Green 8% (5%)
Other/Independent 15% (9%)
Situation Right Now decided voters (Undecided 16%)
NDP 50% (42%)
Liberal 23% (19%)
Conservative 19% (16%)
Green 6% (5%)
Other/Independent 2% (2%)
Wed, 2012-05-16 00:35
#11
So in other words:
- Under the present situation, if all undecided voters flock to one of the Libs or Cons, the NDP still wins.
- Under a "new coalition" situation, just under a quarter of the NDP's votes slip into undecided, and about half each of Liberal and Conservative voters become undecided. The vast majority of the now-total undecided voters would have to go to the new coalition for them to come out ahead.
Wed, 2012-05-16 17:51
#12
Situation Right Now decided voters (Undecided 16%)
NDP 50% (42%)
Liberal 23% (19%)
Conservative 19% (16%)
Green 6% (5%)
Other/Independent 2% (2%)
To compare this to the other two once-in-a-lifetime political earthquakes I've seen in my lifetime:
1991:
NDP - 41% (51 seats)
LIB - 33% (17 seats)
SC - 24% (7 seats)
2001:
LIB - 57% (77 seats)
NDP - 22% (2 seats)
GRN - 12%
Worth pointing out that the BC Liberals were polling even stronger numbers than this both before and after the election. One Mustel poll in April 2001 had the BC Liberals ahead of the NDP and Greens 72-18-7, one right after in October gave a score of 68-18-8. Not saying the Liberals are going to win. They aren't. But there may be a number of people who vote Liberal next election just to make sure there's some kind of political opposition in the province. Just something to be aware of once we see the gulf between the two parties crest above 25%.
As for the whole name-change/merger idea, all I have to say is: lol.
Thu, 2012-05-17 01:04
#13
I remember those polls from back in your day too. I went to a high school on Vancouver's west side and we did a secret poll of my Social Studies 10 class to see who would vote for whom. Anyhow, the Liberals won handily and some people maybe 7 or 8 said they'd vote Green. I was one of two of my class of 25-ish who said they'd vote NDP. I wasn't really willing to admit it at the time though.
Fri, 2012-05-18 15:26
#14
it'll be a real help to mulcair to have dix as premier in the run-up to the 2015 federal election. a trifecta of dix, selinger and dexter, nicely distributed across the country, along with neutral ontario/quebec/maritimes leaves only the premiers of sask and alta in the openly hostile camps. not too shabby.
Sun, 2012-05-20 03:56
#15
I think the fact that I started getting involved in politics around 2001-2002 was probably a large reason why I was a partisan in favour of the Greens and against the NDP for as long as I was. Glen Clark was horrible, Ujjal Dosanjh wasn't really much better, and even progressives were asking themselves how much worse Gordon Campbell could possibly be. We probably shouldn't have.
We're at that point, more or less now, with the Liberals, except they have a somewhat larger and more diverse base to work with. "How much worse can Adrian Dix be?" They ask. He was just the chief of staff to Glen Clark who resigned over his involvement in the casinogate scandal in 1999.
...
Man this province's politics are fucked. What's Sterk up to these days?
Sun, 2012-05-20 13:31
#16
"What's Sterk up to these days?"
Hiding and not running candidates in byelections?
BC is screwed because of our housing bubble. No matter who we choose it will be a nasty few years. I'm just hoping an NDP government will put up a fight on the pipelines.
Sun, 2012-05-20 15:17
#17
We're at that point, more or less now, with the Liberals, except they have a somewhat larger and more diverse base to work with. "How much worse can Adrian Dix be?" They ask. He was just the chief of staff to Glen Clark who resigned over his involvement in the casinogate scandal in 1999.
You mean the "scandal" that a judge found to be legal. In fact the judge found that Clark had at best received an 11% discount on his deck. Where I come from that is how tradespeople treat their kid's friends families.
What I find interesting is that of the right wing political hacks that leave politics for "business" none of them have been as successful as Glen. Most of them get paid to be on Boards and go to meetings not run a major company.
Sat, 2021-11-20 10:14
#18
.
Mon, 2012-05-21 01:19
#19
Thanks for that jftb & krop
Glen remains a committed BC NDPer, and could end being a huge ally to Dix once Dix becomes Premier.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/ndps-dix-reaches-for-the-to...
Sat, 2021-11-20 10:15
#20
.
Mon, 2012-05-21 13:08
#21
I am both proud to defend him from scurrilous accusations and proud to have voted for Corky because I thought Glen was to young and brash for the big job.
Mon, 2012-05-21 15:53
#22
love is free
personally, i can't wait for the socialists to be running bc.
Sat, 2012-05-26 03:51
#23
We're at that point, more or less now, with the Liberals, except they have a somewhat larger and more diverse base to work with. "How much worse can Adrian Dix be?" They ask. He was just the chief of staff to Glen Clark who resigned over his involvement in the casinogate scandal in 1999.
You mean the "scandal" that a judge found to be legal. In fact the judge found that Clark had at best received an 11% discount on his deck. Where I come from that is how tradespeople treat their kid's friends families.
What I find interesting is that of the right wing political hacks that leave politics for "business" none of them have been as successful as Glen. Most of them get paid to be on Boards and go to meetings not run a major company.
I meant Dix's resignation over backdating a memo in an attempt to cover up the affair. That strikes me as pretty seriously dishonest. Dix is still a somewhat better option than Christine Clark, but I can afford to cast a protest vote.
Sat, 2012-05-26 04:23
#24
I kind of like the fact that Dix played dirty and I think he's learnt from that incident not to be so blatently dumb again. I think he's gone from dirty to hard-ball. Too many progressives are so eager to please that they fold in the name of finding "common ground", which he doesn't automatically default to for it's own sake. And though his actions in that case aren't defensible in themselves, the fact that he's effectively neutralized the attacks so far probably means that the ends do justify the means as I don't recall many left-leaning leaders who have been as effective as him in attacking right-wing orthodoxy. Definitely not Carole James. Basically I think he's learnt from that. So the way I see it, yeah he lied on a memo when I was 13 or 14 or something. Who cares? Campbell personally cost me (tens of) thousands of dollars (and more should I do graduate study in BC), in addition to my generally disagreeing with his party, his successor and all of their policies.
Sat, 2012-05-26 11:34
#25
That memo thingy - I think Dix fell on his sword to protect his boss.
Sat, 2012-05-26 12:19
#26
I meant Dix's resignation over backdating a memo in an attempt to cover up the affair. That strikes me as pretty seriously dishonest. Dix is still a somewhat better option than Christine Clark, but I can afford to cast a protest vote.
He has had the same answer for many years. He backdated a memo to go with a conversation he claims he had with Glen. The backdating was wrong but IMO was not seriously dishonest. Stupid and underhanded would be my assessment. He was young and trying to save his boss's ass from the alligators trying to drag him into the swamp. He made a very bad decision to try and save what he knew was, and has since been proven to be, An Innocent Man.
'I take responsibility': Dix
Many profiles of Dix note the incident, with some newspaper columnists reading into what it says about his character.
Dix left his job with Clark's administration over the memo and has repeatedly apologized for what he freely acknowledges was a mistake. His boss was eventually cleared in the case that involved a neighbour who was involved in a casino proposal building a deck on Clark's home, but Dix keeps answering questions about his role.
"People are going to talk about it, and I've answered it," Dix said Monday. "I take responsibility for my mistakes. I always have... I own them."
An able debater, Dix turned the question from his own behaviour to that of the Liberal government. "I think that's the difference between me and the government as well," he said. "I mean, we've seen a government over time avoid responsibility in the BC Rail case."
Two Liberal political aides recently pled guilty to corruption charges related to the sale of the railway. "It's not just the issue of a corruption trial that took place over six years, and the fact the government paid the legal fees of those that pleaded guilty," said Dix. "It's not just the fact they misled people in the election campaign about what they were going to do, but it's the fact that we lost our railway and it's had severe impacts for the economy of B.C."
Nobody's apologized to the people of the province about it, he said. "I haven't heard anyone on the government side take responsibility for what they put the public through on that," he said. "When I make mistakes I take responsibility for them. That's the difference between me and them."
Sat, 2012-05-26 13:30
#27
Yeah, in 1999 I was 17 years old and living under the Mike Harris regime in Ontario. So the past of the BCNDP is not a significant reference point for me.
I do appreciate Dix's candour, and he makes a good point that the BCLibs are not owning up to their own shit.
Candour is something that I find to be particularly lost on a premier who is desperately trying to announce whatever last-ditch policies will keep both flanks of her party together before it implodes.
Tue, 2012-05-29 18:56
#28
I think the fact that I started getting involved in politics around 2001-2002 was probably a large reason why I was a partisan in favour of the Greens and against the NDP for as long as I was. Glen Clark was horrible, Ujjal Dosanjh wasn't really much better, and even progressives were asking themselves how much worse Gordon Campbell could possibly be. We probably shouldn't have.
And that's why provincial(and eventually federal)NDP governments, British Labour governments, French Socialist governments, or those of any other "center-left" party should NEVER be nonchalant about moving to the right after getting elected. Blurring the differences and relying on a "they're still worse than us" arguement will pretty much ALWAYS produce results like the election of people like Thatcher, Reagan, Mike Harris, Gordon Campbell, and Brad Wall. You can only get a center-left government re-elected if that government perpetually engages the base and remembers that it owes any victory TO the base.
Sat, 2021-11-20 10:16
#29
.
Thu, 2012-06-14 15:17
#30
Thu, 2012-06-14 16:15
#31
At this rate it's ordained to be 2001 in reverse.
Thu, 2012-06-14 17:46
#32
I think Christy needs to go into the cookie business. She is COOKED!
Thu, 2012-06-14 18:38
#33
I don't think I've ever looked forward to an election this much.
Thu, 2012-06-14 20:02
#34
Well, as the Klingons (and others apparently) say, revenge is a dish best served cold.
Thu, 2012-06-14 20:15
#35
(Ricardo Montalban voice) And it is very cold in the BC legislature. 
Fri, 2012-06-15 11:06
#36
Well, as the Klingons (and others apparently) say, revenge is a dish best served cold.
Unfortunately at the current rate of mass sell off before defeat the actual dish required to serve the revenge on will be the subject of a P3 before next election and then we will find out that we have to pay a Howe Street firm a daily fee for the use of it.
Fri, 2012-06-15 19:18
#37
love is free
I don't think I've ever looked forward to an election this much.
haha, right on!
Fri, 2012-06-15 20:57
#38
Fri, 2012-06-15 23:00
#39
Corporate CEO Jim Shepard rides to Premier Christy Clark's political rescue - with faulty facts and red scare tactics about BC "socialism"
The Premier's Good Shepard
http://billtieleman.blogspot.ca/2012/06/corporate-ceo-jim-shepard-rides-...
Mon, 2012-06-18 03:23
#40
Ipsos Poll (vs Feb)
NDP - 48% (+4%), 65 seats (+10)
BCL - 29% (-3%), 18 seats (-11)
CON - 16% (Even), 1 seat (Even)
GRN - 6% (-1%), IND - 1 seat (+1)
Forum Poll (vs May)
NDP - 50% (+2), 78 seats (+5)
BCL - 20% (-3), 3 seats (-4)
CON - 19% (Even), 2 seats (-1)
GRN - 11% (+3), IND - 2 seats (Even)
2001 Election results: Liberals 56%, NDP 22%, Green 12%
2001 polls: Liberals in the 60s, NDP mid teens, Greens low teens.
Mon, 2012-06-18 04:26
#41
Safe seats for the Liberals, for those thinking about the possibility of an NDP sweep or Liberal wipe-out.
Winning margin of over 40% (2)
Vancouver-Quilchena (70-21), West Vancouver-Capilano (68-15)
Winning margin of over 30% (9)
Peace River North (63-27), Surrey-Cloverdale (62-30), Surrey-White Rock (62-27), Richmond Centre (62-29), Fort Langley-Aldergrove (61-30), Richmond-Steveston (61-27), North Van-Seymour (59-27), Abbotsford South (58-26, BC Cons 6), West Vancouver-Sea to Sky (55-23, Greens 22)
Winning margin of over 20% (11)
Vancouver-False Creek (56-27, Greens 13), Kelowna-Mission (54-26, BC Cons 12), Richmond East (58-33), Abbotsford Mission (58-33), Kelowna-Lake Country (52-27, BC Cons 11), Vancouver-Langara (59-35), Abbotsford West (56-32, Cons 7), Westside-Kelowna (53-29, BC Cons 9), Coquitlam Burke Mtn (57-36), Langley (57-36), Nechako Lakes (55-35).
Then comes Chilliwack-Hope which went: LIB 53, NDP 33, CON 7, GRN 6 in 2009 and NDP 41, LIB 31, CON 25 this time around.
Byelection swing: LIB to NDP 30 points
Swing according to Ipsos: LIB to NDP 23 points
Swing according to Forum: LIB to NDP 34 points
Tue, 2012-06-19 17:28
#42
love is free
the thing is obviously that some of these seats could be lost to the ndp with relatively small swings toward the good guys, depending on the swing from bclp to cpbc.
Sat, 2021-11-20 10:17
#43
.
Fri, 2012-08-03 10:46
#44
Even if the Consiberals managed to get all their votes into one party they are still 8 points behind :)
Fri, 2012-08-03 11:32
#45
Another poll by Robbins Sce Research, released on July 27, gives the same electoral picture within the margin of error. Furthermore, "Only (71%) of the total number of respondents who support the BC Conservatives and BC Liberals support the Enbridge pipeline, while in total (68%) more respondents are opposed to the Enbridge pipeline than the combined total that support the BC NDP and BC Greens." If Harper tries to ram through the pipeline, he will pay dearly for it in the next federal election in BC.
http://www.robbinssceresearch.com/polls/poll_917.html
For which British Columbia leader and party would you vote if an election were held tomorrow? (Leaders and party presented as 100%)
Adrian Dix and BC NDP 46.6 %
John Cummins and BC Conservatives 21.3 %
Christy Clark and BC Liberals 21.1 %
Jane Sterk and BC Greens 9.6 %
Other leader and party 1.5 %
I do not currently support any of the leaders and party proposed 17 %
I am undecided about which leader and party I currently support 13.5 %
Fri, 2012-08-03 21:35
#46
i caught a too cute poll today by CKNW said ND's have 35% in interior of BC and the Libs and Cons have 27% and 25% respectively provincally so between the 2 they would have majority governent.
i wouldn't've caught it but I thought that doesn't make 100% what happened to the other 13%.
Sat, 2012-08-04 12:27
#47
I'm concerned about those other 6 seats.
Provincial NDP with twice the vote total of Liberals
Taking in to account margin for error, these voting intention results — if they hold on Election Day — would see the NDP take 79 out of the 85 seats in the legislature, leaving just 4 for the Liberals and one each for Vickie Huntington in Delta South and Arthur Hadland in Peace River North.
https://www.forumresearch.com/forms/News%20Archives/News%20Releases/7302...
Sat, 2012-08-04 12:54
#48
Frankly I'd like to see an opposition larger than 6 seats. I think an NDP majority will be kept honest more easily (face it, power corrupts) if there is more than one official party status.
Sat, 2012-08-04 19:20
#49
I think this election we will see the Greenies panic and vote NDP. They are the other party that opposes the pipeline and the voters that really want this thing nixed will support NDP. I mean if they vote Green, they must know that it is a throwaway and how does that help the environment? So the Green vote polling at 9.6% will not nearly reflect reality at the polls.
Sat, 2012-08-04 23:34
#50
Frankly I'd like to see an opposition larger than 6 seats. I think an NDP majority will be kept honest more easily (face it, power corrupts) if there is more than one official party status.
Um, you will. It'll be called the media, the big business community, etc, etc. The NDP will have a very vigorous opposition from day 1.
Tue, 2012-08-07 22:41
#51
Frankly I'd like to see an opposition larger than 6 seats. I think an NDP majority will be kept honest more easily (face it, power corrupts) if there is more than one official party status.
I agree. All parties with large majorities tend to get careless and arrogant to some extent, including Barrett's 1970s one. Better to have a smaller, but comfortable majority. There is a good chance the lead will shrink somewhat as the mainstream media start attacking the NDP more, but it is hard to see it collapsing or even getting really close unless some dramatic event occurs that recrystallizes the political dynamics in another direction. I also agree that a good portion of the Green vote is likely to come the NDP way, but not in a panic - more in response to the lack of charisma in their leader - Jane Sterk - and the lack of strong Green riding organizations in most constituencies. I only think the Green voters would move in very large numbers towards the NDP if they thought the election would go to the Cons or Libs if they did not. With anything somewhat close to current polling numbers on the eve of the election, this would seem unlikely.