It has just been announced that Catherine Fife the chair of the Waterloo school board and President of the Ontario Association of Public School Board Trustees will seek the NDP nomination in K-W...the Tories have already nominated and the liberals are still searching high and low for someone willing to run for them. With Fife this could be winnable for the NDP IMHO.
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I think it is winnable too.
this is what happens when you're riding high in the polls! great news! an excellent addition to caucus, a nice little grab off the tories, and a firmer hold on the balance of power in ontario's assembly: hard not to get excited about this race.
Indeed. [url=http://www.therecord.com/opinion/columns/article/760337--d-amato-don-t-c... Don’t count out ‘Elizabeth Left’ in byelection (KW Record)[/url]
It has often been said that the voters of Kitchener-Waterloo riding didn’t vote for the Ontario Progressive Conservatives for two decades. Instead, they voted for their Tory MPP, Elizabeth Witmer. Witmer retired unexpectedly this spring. An important byelection is approaching. And if voters in that riding are looking for a new Elizabeth, they’ll find her in Catherine Fife. Fife, who announced her intention to run for the New Democrats on Thursday, is so similar to Witmer that you could almost think of her as “Elizabeth Left.” Both of them got their start in local politics as a school trustee, and progressed to become the chair of the Waterloo Region public school board. Both are strong-minded, formidable leaders with steel backbones — tucked under a calm and friendly exterior. Both are ambitious, hard-working pragmatists. And when they run in provincial elections (Fife ran against Witmer in 2007), each turns out to be more popular than her party.
You can visit Catherine Fife's website http://www.catherinefife.ca to find more about her and to follow her social media links.
If Karen Scian wins the OLP nom, interesting situation with all 4 main parties running female candidates. Anyone know the last time that happened in a by-election?
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I'd vote for Catherine. Very impressive.
Catherine Fife is the only candidate, running for the NDP, who has been tested "electorially" and won, as a school trustee. In fact, in the last municipal election, we won every single poll. The other partys' candidates are really unknown to the voters.
Liberal nomination candidate Karen Scian is a city councillor so presumably she's been 'tested' by the voters as well.
ETA: I am rooting for Catherine, though.
If Karen Scian wins the OLP nom, interesting situation with all 4 main parties running female candidates. Anyone know the last time that happened in a by-election?
Don't know about by-elections, but it happened on my side of the country in Vancouver Centre for the 2011 federal election. Hedy Fry (Lib), Karen Shillington (NDP), Jennifer Clarke (Con), Adriane Carr (Green).
Oh! Vancouver-Fairview provincial by-election was Jenn McGinn (BCNDP), Margaret MacDiarmid (BCLIB) and Jane Sterk (BC Green). The Conservative was a guy but wasn't part of the debates and they weren't a going concern at that point in time.
And actually, it happened in none other but K-W provincially in 2007 (Witmer and Fife included).
Incidentally, I've yet to calculate 2011 provincial numbers, but here's the admittedly rough 2011 federal numbers for K-W divvied up into geographic sectors (including 400 polls, but excluding 500 polls, advance and special)
laurelwood--Con 1970 (44.32), Lib 1620 (36.45), NDP 663 (14.92), GP 161 (3.62), PP 24 (.54), Ind 4 (.09), ML 3 (.07)
rummelhardt--Con 1878 (44.28), Lib 1608 (37.92), NDP 564 (13.30), GP 175 (4.13), PP 6 (.14), Ind 6 (.14), ML 4 (.09)
northfield--Con 2256 (43.68), Lib 1677 (32.47), NDP 926 (17.93), GP 262 (5.07), PP 19 (.37), Ind 16 (.31), ML 9 (.17)
lexington--Con 4491 (47.81), Lib 3060 (32.57), NDP 1405 (14.96), GP 386 (4.11), Ind 22 (.23), PP 20 (.21), ML 10 (.11)
university--Lib 1193 (41.77), Con 790 (27.66), NDP 662 (23.18), GP 162 (5.67), PP 31 (1.09), Ind 13 (.46), ML 5 (.18)
ec waterloo--Lib 2534 (37.54), Con 2522 (37.36), NDP 1240 (18.37), GP 394 (5.84), PP 30 (.44), Ind 24 (.36), ML 6 (.09)
beechwood--Lib 1296 (46.50), Con 975 (34.98), NDP 380 (13.63), GP 117 (4.20), PP 12 (.43), Ind 6 (.22), ML 1 (.04)
wc waterloo--Lib 1380 (47.21), Con 901 (30.82), NDP 393 (13.45), GP 231 (7.90), PP 12 (.41), Ind 5 (.17), ML 1 (.03)
westvale--Con 1598 (42.26), Lib 1362 (36.02), NDP 624 (16.50), GP 176 (4.65), PP 11 (.29), Ind 6 (.16), ML 4 (.11)
nw kitchener--Con 1777 (44.58), Lib 1187 (29.78), NDP 870 (21.83), GP 119 (2.99), PP 14 (.35), Ind 13 (.33), ML 6 (.15)
nc kitchener--Lib 1266 (37.85), Con 1116 (33.36), NDP 674 (20.15), GP 250 (7.47), PP 19 (.57), Ind 15 (.45), ML 5 (.15)
ne kitchener--Con 1202 (38.98), NDP 837 (27.14), Lib 834 (27.04), GP 171 (5.54), PP 22 (.71). Ind 16 (.52), ML 2 (.06)
bridgeport--Con 870 (53.21), Lib 364 (22.26), NDP 326 (19.94), GP 62 (3.79), PP 7 (.43), Ind 4 (.24), ML 2 (.12)
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After listening to Laurel Broten on "Ontario Today" yesterday, I hope the teachers' federations turn out en masse to work for Catherine Fife. The McGuinty government's willingness to tromp all over collective bargaining legislation, and spead lies right and left, was thoroughly appalling. They need a strong message.
I have friends in Vaughan but they're apolitical so I have no sense of the dynamics there. Are there any good NDP prospects? A Jagmeet Singh could do well in that diverse riding I would think....
While South Asians are the largest visible minority group within the Vaughan Riding, they are nowhere near the percentage of the elctorate that they are in nearby Brampton ridings. More telling statistics to describe the riding are that Vaughan riding is (1) 96% homeowners and 6% tenant households, and (2) 85% of the homes in the riding were built between 1986 and the date of the 2006 census while only 15% of all homes in the riding were built earlier than 1986.
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And the Jewish community is largely a far-northeast rump.
Generally speaking, the NDP *could* test-ride an "Italian strategy" here--a northward version of what's historically worked for them south of Steeles?--but I wouldn't go much further than the test-ride scenario, unless some un-corrupt bigwig from one of the other parties throws in his/her lot as a standard-bearer...
The BCNDP got Joe Trasolini (Italian by birth, ex-mayor of Port Moody) elected here in a by-election. Now that corner of the burbs has always had a bit of an orange streak to it anyway, but perhaps that might be a good case study to start with if you want to consider how the NDP might strategize in Vaughan.
However, one Italian strategy I would veer away from is whatever the brilliant minds of Yorkview came up with for the 1990 Ontario election. Some rookie named George Mammoliti became the leading homophobe of the NDP government caucus, and is now (going by Giorgio these days) Rob Ford's best buddy on Toronto city council.
Is there anyone even vaguely left-leaning in the past 10 years of Vaughan's municipal politics?
An old marketing maxim: If you don't have a competitive advantage, don't compete.
The opinion of those commenting here seems to be that the NDP does indeed have a competitive advantage in the K-W byelection. I'm not writing to refute that opinion, but rather to suggest what might have been done were the situation otherwise.
The NDP might have considered not running a candidate at all. However, since the byelection will be considered a referendum on the performance of the minority government to date, the party would need to participate in some way--but how?
Perhaps by involving itself in the election as an intervenor at the level of provincial policy, as a friend of the court, so to speak, by which I mean the court of public opinion:
For such a campaign, the party could have appealled for $ from NDP supporters province-wide--much as it is actually doing, but, I believe, with hope for a better response.
Or so it seems to me, eh?!
An old marketing maxim: If you don't have a competitive advantage, don't compete.
If that were so cut-and-dried a case, then most Alberta federal Cons should be acclaimed. However, electorally speaking, that's no fun...
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Forum routinely does polls for free for the Toronto Star that no one pays for. Since they use computers to robo-poll the riding - it costs them almost nothing and they get publicity for themselves. I see no conspiracy here. They did a poll in Waterloo back in April the day after Witmer announced she was resigning - just testing the parties with no candidate names. This time they polled Vaughan the day after Sorbara announced he was resigning - again just party names and no candidates (for obvious reasons since no one has been nominated).
It makes no sense to poll in Waterloo right now since the Liberals are not nominating a candidate until Thursday - why do a poll when only two out of three of the major candidates have been chosen when you can wait three days and test all the parties and candidate names??
As for Vaughan, I really don't give a damn that it shows the NDP out of the running - Vaughan is and will always be one of the NDP's weakest ridings in the whole province. That riding is mostly ostentatious mansions belong to second generation Italian-Canadians - many of whom made their fortune in the construction industry employing non-union labour - if anyone can think of a riding with worse demographic for the NDP than that - please tell us. If anything, I'm impressed that the Forum poll in Vaughan has the NDP at 15% - that is a full 4 points ABOVE the 11% the NDP had in that riding last October! If the NDP vote in Vaughan falls - it won't be because anyone "votes "strategically" for ther Liberals. Why would they? its a BY-ELECTION - if the Liberals win it only brings them closer to having a majority and reducing the NDP's influence. What is more likely to happen is the ONDP will spend almost no money in Vaughan and focus 99% of its efforts in Waterloo and a lot of peopl;e who might vote NDOP in a general election will instead just stay home and not bother voting at all. Keep in mind that in the federal byelection in Vaughan in 2010 that elected Fantino - the NDP took ONE p[ercent of the vote!
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The Waterloo poll was the day after the vacancy was declared...not after an election, but I agree that in both cases it was a bit hasty, especially since as I recall both the Waterloo and Vaughan polls were done on a holiday weekend (Good Friday and Civic Holiday)
An old marketing maxim: If you don't have a competitive advantage, don't compete.If that were so cut-and-dried a case, then most Alberta federal Cons should be acclaimed. However, electorally speaking, that's no fun...
No fun whatsoever for those who experience politics as games or (a la Hedges et. al.) theatre, eh?! But for others, . . .
If the provincial byelection in Vaughan were held today, the traditionally Liberal riding could fall to the Tories, a new Forum poll shows. . . .
The Forum poll, taken by telephone late last week, shows 41 per cent of voters would choose the Progressive Conservatives, 40 per cent would vote for the Liberals, while only 15 per cent would vote NDP.
Another byelection in which the party might consider running a policy rather than a personal campaign.
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Not sure what you are getting at Grandpa Bill, so are you suggesting that the NDP should not run a candidate in Vaughn? What about W/K?
Strange to say, that's the idea, JftB:
Bizarre, eh?!
An old marketing maxim: If you don't have a competitive advantage, don't compete.If that were so cut-and-dried a case, then most Alberta federal Cons should be acclaimed. However, electorally speaking, that's no fun...
No fun whatsoever for those who experience politics as games or (a la Hedges et. al.) theatre, eh?! But for others, . . .
Yeah, I know what you mean: the old "Ralph Nader elected Dubyah" argument
But ultimately, an overinsistence upon such "competitive advantage" is like an overinsistence upon the only way from Toronto to Windsor being along 400-series highways...
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I respectfully disagree with you Bill. I don't see the McGuinty Liberals progressive and how they are running things. If we get a great candidate, we should support them.
Thanks for the comment, JB. I agree with you: the Liberals are not progressive. That's why I suggested this earlier in this thread, with some added emphasis here as it relates to your comment:
The NDP might have considered not running a candidate at all. However, since the byelection will be considered a referendum on the performance of the minority government to date, the party would need to participate in some way--but how?
Perhaps by involving itself in the election as an intervenor at the level of provincial policy, as a friend of the court, so to speak, by which I mean the court of public opinion:
- by running ads of this type: Thinking of voting Liberal? Think again. Here's why . . . .
- by having the leader and the critics speak on matters that they have been dealing with at Queen's Park.
For such a campaign, the party could have appealled for $ from NDP supporters province-wide--much as it is actually doing, but, I believe, with hope for a better response.
And YES if the NDP gets a great candidate, . . . . But (for me, at least) a great candidate is one who will come second at worst, not second at best. In Vaughan, there's not a chance; in K-W, it seems to be a crap shoot.
Seems to me: crap shoots are for those with much bigger bankrolls. 
Sept 6 is the date for both by-elections
But ultimately, an overinsistence upon such "competitive advantage" is like an overinsistence upon the only way from Toronto to Windsor being along 400-series highways...
Interesting point: it certainly has merit. I'm, of course, more concerned with the insistence on the need to run a candidate in every riding in every election as the only route to political success.
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If the NDP didn't file a candidate in Vaughan, the Liberals would be assured a victory. In the case of Vaughan, I don't mind an Ontario PC win, just because it would solidify a minority government. I might even consider voting PC if I was a resident of Vaughan. Again, just because of how close the numbers are to a majority. I don't usually consider voting strategically in elections (actually never in general elections), but this is a very rare circumstance, where one seat does make an enormous difference. Especially if the Liberals win K-W. Of course, in K-W I would vote NDP as there is a good chance for a win. Again, just to clarify, as a citizen, I vote for what would make my province more progressive, socially democratic, or more simply, left. In the case of Vaughan, that may just be voting PC, as the NDP would maintain a balance of power.
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And YES if the NDP gets a great candidate, . . . . But (for me, at least) a great candidate is one who will come second at worst, not second at best. In Vaughan, there's not a chance; in K-W, it seems to be a crap shoot.
Then again, in 2007, the NDP were seven points away from 2nd in Vaughan--yeah, that was 11.7% vs 18.7% for the PCs; but, still...
The Literery Review of Canada (July-August 2012) contains a review by Susan Delacourt of Political Marketing in Canada edited by Marland et. al. Here are quotes from Delacourt's review of material from two of the book's contribuors:
The Shopping Aisles of Democracy
“Close campaigns are decided by the least informed, least engaged voters,” Muttart told Lees-Marshment. “These voters do not go looking for political news and information. This necessitates brutally simple communication with clear choices that hits the voter whether they like it or not. Journalists and editorialists often complain about the simplicity of political communication, but marketers must respond to the reality that undecided voters are often not as informed or interested as the political and media class are.”
Not enough people have been paying attention, in this reviewer’s opinion, to Turcotte’s revelation of how the Conservatives use polls. This is a party only glancingly interested in those national horse-race figures that transfix the media. Conservatives do not even bother with them, in fact. Bringing market-research intelligence to their political strategy, Turcotte shows us, the Conservatives recognized after their 2004 election defeat that they had to shape their “product” to suit those disengaged voters that Muttart was talking about—the people in a position to decide close races. “The result was that out of a sea of about 23 million eligible voters, the Conservative strategy was able to focus on a pool of about 500,000 voters, which made the difference between victory and defeat … and nationwide nightly campaign tracking was replaced by nightly tracking in winnable ridings and among key groups only.”
Running a candidate in every riding is window dressing: nice if you can afford it, but . . . .
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Not enough people have been paying attention, in this reviewer’s opinion, to Turcotte’s revelation of how the Conservatives use polls. This is a party only glancingly interested in those national horse-race figures that transfix the media. Conservatives do not even bother with them, in fact. Bringing market-research intelligence to their political strategy, Turcotte shows us, the Conservatives recognized after their 2004 election defeat that they had to shape their “product” to suit those disengaged voters that Muttart was talking about—the people in a position to decide close races. “The result was that out of a sea of about 23 million eligible voters, the Conservative strategy was able to focus on a pool of about 500,000 voters, which made the difference between victory and defeat … and nationwide nightly campaign tracking was replaced by nightly tracking in winnable ridings and among key groups only.”
Running a candidate in every riding is window dressing: nice if you can afford it, but . . . .
So, who's to say that the NDP can't learn something from such Conservative tactics? Kind of like outflanking them on their own turf...
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And the Tories are running Tony Genco again in Vaughan:
http://www.ontariopc.com/news/tony-genco-running-for-ontario-pcs-in-vaug...
Vaughan is a seat I could see the NDP winning if they won government. That alone is reason enough to target it. It is also a good test of any efforts by the NDP to expand their support into new demographics.
I doubt it. They didn't come even close to taking the area that now constitutes Vaughan riding in 1990 and it's one of the weakest ridings for the party in the whole province! It's a wealthy 905 riding and very nouveau riche suburban: not exactly NDP demographics.
Vaughan is and will always be one of the NDP's weakest ridings in the whole province.
Well, until 2015. It has 196,068 residents, 1.846 quotients. Will one part be better than the other?
Those 196,068 could be in a VAUGHAN—WOODBRIDGE with about 112,100 residents and a new VAUGHAN—MAPLE also with about 112,100 residents including about 28,100 residents of the present Thornhill. Maple, and the northwest corner of Thornhill, are the best areas for the NDP in both of those ridings. Still not great, but not as weak as the likely VAUGHAN—WOODBRIDGE.
But we'll see the proposed Ontario boundaries any day now. The other nine Commissions have now released proposals.
(Double post)
Vaughan is and will always be one of the NDP's weakest ridings in the whole province.Well, until 2015. ...
While the next federal election is fairly certain to occur no earlier than 2015, the minority government in Ontario means that a provincial election could occur earlier and under new boundaries. Since provincial boundaries are deemed (at least until provincial legislation changes) to be identical to federal boundaries in southern Ontario, the impending changes federally could result in an election taking place provincially in Ontario in advance of the 2015 federal election.
The PCs got almost as many votes but many fewer seats in 2011 than the provincial Liberals by winning big in "small town Ontario" to the west and east of the GTA while making no breakthroughs in the GTA or Toronto itself. Since the GTA will disproporionately gain new seats with the impending redistribution, the provincial Liberals may convince themselves that they have a strategic advantage in getting new boundaries into place as quickly as possible -- perhaps even more quickly than the currrent federal legislation allows the new proposals to take effect federally -- so as to get their majority through redistribution. Someone else can do the poll-by-poll analysis, but I have no doubt that, had the 2011 Ontario election somehow taken place based on the boundaries that are about to be proposed, the McGuinty Liberals would have won enough seats to be just over a majority in the Legislature instead of just under. While annoying in terms of motivation, that approach IMHO is actually democratic (by providing greater representation by population as soon as practical, rather than later).
Vaughan is and will always be one of the NDP's weakest ridings in the whole province.Well, until 2015. It has 196,068 residents, 1.846 quotients. Will one part be better than the other?
Those 196,068 could be in a VAUGHAN—WOODBRIDGE with about 112,100 residents and a new VAUGHAN—MAPLE also with about 112,100 residents including about 28,100 residents of the present Thornhill. Maple, and the northwest corner of Thornhill, are the best areas for the NDP in both of those ridings. Still not great, but not as weak as the likely VAUGHAN—WOODBRIDGE.
But we'll see the proposed Ontario boundaries any day now. The other nine Commissions have now released proposals.
Though I suspect that even a Vaughan-Maple would be a longshot, unless the NDP is positioned for a Peterson '87-type landslide...
Oh, for the record, I'm hearing of a Forum poll that shows the Libs and PC tiwd at 36 and the NDP at 20 in K-W. (And since I'm not Debater, you can't accuse me of posting info with some kind of malicious agenda;-))
