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Kitchener-Waterloo byelection
Mon, 2021-11-22 11:40
#52
Sun, 2012-08-12 01:11
#53
Oh, for the record, I'm hearing of a Forum poll that shows the Libs and PC tiwd at 36 and the NDP at 20 in K-W. (And since I'm not Debater, you can't accuse me of posting info with some kind of malicious agenda;-))
If that poll is accurate, it actually gives the NDP at least an outside shot at pulling off an upset, or, at the very least, a reasonable chance of finishing ahead of the Liberals should their candidate make one or two significant mistakes in the last weeks of the campaign.
Mon, 2021-11-22 11:41
#54
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Sun, 2012-08-12 12:03
#55
Though I wouldn't be so brash as to label Eric Rogers "unknown"; after all, he did quite well (and in a way that suggests "personal credentials") vs Witmer last year in an election that generally didn't favour Grits vs Tory incumbents...
Sun, 2012-08-12 18:06
#56
Though I wouldn't be so brash as to label Eric Rogers "unknown"; after all, he did quite well (and in a way that suggests "personal credentials") vs Witmer last year in an election that generally didn't favour Grits vs Tory incumbents...
Well, then, I guess Eric Davis has the same "personal credentials" as Dominic Ursini, Elizabeth Roy, and other good second place finishers from the last provincial election. In a general election, most people vote on province-wide issues, to some extent under the influence of a relatively "thick" advertizing blitz during the election period. In other words, the local candidate matters less during a general election.
In a by-election, local candidates tend to matter more, as the province-wide advertising presence does not exist. Having a prominent candidate does not guarantee success -- but the local candidate's profile does matter more in a by-election than a general election.
Sun, 2012-08-12 19:43
#57
Well, then, I guess Eric Davis has the same "personal credentials" as Dominic Ursini, Elizabeth Roy, and other good second place finishers from the last provincial election. In a general election, most people vote on province-wide issues, to some extent under the influence of a relatively "thick" advertizing blitz during the election period. In other words, the local candidate matters less during a general election. In a by-election, local candidates tend to matter more, as the province-wide advertising presence does not exist. Having a prominent candidate does not guarantee success -- but the local candidate's profile does matter more in a by-election than a general election.
Even so, I wouldn't be *that* dismissive. Unlike Elizabeth Roy, Eric Davis actually increased his Liberal share and narrowed the margin w/a Tory incumbent--in a way that suggest something stronger than a mere generic "province-wide" blitz effect.
Indeed, Davis in 2011 might even be viewed as a determined "practice run" for the present--much like Fife's 2007 run (or Witmer's 1987 run relative to 1990). So, let's not be too fatally hasty in judging him an also-ran...
Mon, 2012-08-13 14:37
#58
No details yet - but Forum has been tweeting that they now have the PCs in the lead in K-W...obviously there never was a 36-36-20 poll..
Tue, 2012-08-14 00:05
#59
Forum just released their poll of K-W in the Toronto Star:
PC - 34% (down 9 points from Oct. 2011 election)
NDP - 30% (up 13 points)
Libs - 30% (down 6 points)
How do you like them apples?
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1241559--ontario-lib...
Tue, 2012-08-14 05:42
#60
Forum just released their poll of K-W in the Toronto Star:
PC - 34% (down 9 points from Oct. 2011 election)
NDP - 30% (up 13 points)
Libs - 30% (down 6 points)
How do you like them apples?
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1241559--ontario-lib...
So.....
The third-place New Democrats have a 13% jump in support, and the article doesn't mention the K.W. NDP candidate Catherine Fife once????
Can anyone doubt the media bias against the NDP?
Go Catherine!!!!!
Mon, 2021-11-22 11:41
#61
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Tue, 2012-08-14 10:26
#62
So you think this riding will be NDP victory?
PC 34% (+2)
NDP 30% (+10)
LIB 30% (-9)
GRN 4% (-3)
18-34
LIB 39% (-7)
NDP 35% (+11)
PC 16% (+3)
GRN 7% (-6)
35-44
NDP 37% (+22)
PC 31% (-1)
LIB 26% (-15)
GRN 6% (-5)
45-54
NDP 33% (+10)
PC 33% (-2)
LIB 30% (-7)
GRN 3% (-2)
55-64
PC 36% (+4)
NDP 30% (+10)
LIB 29% (-16)
GRN 5% (+2)
65+
PC 48% (+3)
LIB 28% (=)
NDP 20% (+1)
GRN 5% (-3)
Male
PC 39% (+6)
LIB 31% (-7)
NDP 25% (+5)
GRN 5% (-3)
Female
NDP 36% (+16)
LIB 30% (-10)
PC 29% (-3)
GRN 4% (-2)
Past Vote
PC <- PC 75%, DidntVote 23%, GRN 18%, LIB 6%, NDP 6%, OTH 4%
NDP <- NDP 79%, DV 59%, OTH 50%, GRN 25%, LIB 25%, PC 12%
LIB <- LIB 66%, GRN 22%, DV 17%, PC 10%, NDP 10%, OTH 9%
GRN <- GRN 33%, OTH 15%, NDP 6%, PC 3%, LIB 2%, DV 0%
https://www.forumresearch.com/forms/News%20Archives/News%20Releases/0995...
Tue, 2012-08-14 10:58
#63
post deleted... strange thing happened in quote....
Tue, 2012-08-14 10:59
#64
Oh, for the record, I'm hearing of a Forum poll that shows the Libs and PC tiwd at 36 and the NDP at 20 in K-W. (And since I'm not Debater, you can't accuse me of posting info with some kind of malicious agenda;-))
Looks like its a 3 way race instead of a desired 2 way race....
Good for KW..
Mon, 2021-11-22 11:42
#65
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Tue, 2012-08-21 19:29
#66
So you think this riding will be NDP victory?
PC 34% (+2)
NDP 30% (+10)
LIB 30% (-9)
GRN 4% (-3)18-34
LIB 39% (-7)
NDP 35% (+11)
PC 16% (+3)
GRN 7% (-6)35-44
NDP 37% (+22)
PC 31% (-1)
LIB 26% (-15)
GRN 6% (-5)45-54
NDP 33% (+10)
PC 33% (-2)
LIB 30% (-7)
GRN 3% (-2)55-64
PC 36% (+4)
NDP 30% (+10)
LIB 29% (-16)
GRN 5% (+2)65+
PC 48% (+3)
LIB 28% (=)
NDP 20% (+1)
GRN 5% (-3)Male
PC 39% (+6)
LIB 31% (-7)
NDP 25% (+5)
GRN 5% (-3)Female
NDP 36% (+16)
LIB 30% (-10)
PC 29% (-3)
GRN 4% (-2)Past Vote
PC <- PC 75%, DidntVote 23%, GRN 18%, LIB 6%, NDP 6%, OTH 4%
NDP <- NDP 79%, DV 59%, OTH 50%, GRN 25%, LIB 25%, PC 12%
LIB <- LIB 66%, GRN 22%, DV 17%, PC 10%, NDP 10%, OTH 9%
GRN <- GRN 33%, OTH 15%, NDP 6%, PC 3%, LIB 2%, DV 0%
https://www.forumresearch.com/forms/News%20Archives/News%20Releases/0995...
That's so acheingly close, I predict a nail biter on By-Election night. And an NDP victory.
Tue, 2012-08-21 20:09
#67
Who's running in Vaughan?
Tue, 2012-08-21 21:38
#68
Paul Donofrio. He ran in the same riding in 2011.
Wed, 2012-08-22 03:42
#69
I hope that poll is accurate...if so, it indicates the NDP is surging and the Liberals are collapsing. It might be time to ask Liberal voters in K-W to "vote strategically" for Catherine Fife!
Mon, 2021-11-22 11:42
#70
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Sat, 2012-08-25 10:02
#71
An interesting blog post by a former NDP candidate, Cameron Dearlove. Case for voting strategic for the NDP.
Mon, 2021-11-22 11:42
#72
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Mon, 2012-08-27 23:15
#73
http://theliberalscarf.blogspot.ca/2012/08/students-putting-students-fir...
Why is this person concidered a progressive blogger? Trying to pit students against teachers is literally from Mike Harris' playbook and I believe it was condemned by the Liberals when Harris tried it.
Mon, 2021-11-22 11:43
#74
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Thu, 2012-08-30 12:15
#75
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1248928--cohn-dalton...
Cohn calls this a manufacted crisis and reminds readers of what Dalton said to Harris when Harris manufactured a crisis.
Mon, 2021-11-22 11:43
#76
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Sat, 2012-09-01 20:33
#77
The Star actually went there...used the worst possible pun of the campaign:
"Kitchener could be Tim Hudak's Waterloo"
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/1250258--cohn-kitchener-could...
Sun, 2012-09-02 18:05
#78
Anyone else keeps hear,Waterloo by Abba when thinking about this campaign?
Mon, 2021-11-22 11:44
#79
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Sun, 2012-09-02 22:02
#80
I keep wondering if the Tory canvassers shout "Make Way For Lord Kitchener!" as they carry their handouts down the streets.
Mon, 2012-09-03 05:03
#81
autoworker
Have any of the parties' candidates discussed future investments in R&D, or technology inputs needed to maintain, and grow, the knowledge-based economy of the K-W region? How are the different candidates addressing the problems at RIM, and their effects on the region's economy?
Mon, 2012-09-03 10:06
#82
http://www.flyingsquirrel.ca/index.php/2012/09/02/by-election/comment-pa...
A revolt in the Liberal ranks over Dalton's actions, its clear Dalton must be afraid Catherine's going to take it.
Mon, 2012-09-03 17:34
#83
http://www.catherinefife.com/mulcair-and-horwath-catherine-fife-is-the-b...
From Catherine Fife's website, Tom Mulcair, Andrea Horwath, and Catherine Fife along with 200 volunteers. I'm glad Tom's particapating along with Andrea and Catherine.
Mon, 2012-09-03 20:38
#84
I was there today. Thomas Mulcair and Andrea Horwath's speeches were short but to the point. Both of them were elected in by-elections and they said this would be the case for Catherine Fife:)
It will be a very interesting riding to watch. If Liberals win, they will have the majority. If Cons win, we will have the statusquo. If NDP wins, this could be the start of orange wave in Ontario. Let's hope for the best.
Mon, 2012-09-03 21:11
#85
autoworker
http://www.catherinefife.com/mulcair-and-horwath-catherine-fife-is-the-b...From Catherine Fife's website, Tom Mulcair, Andrea Horwath, and Catherine Fife along with 200 volunteers. I'm glad Tom's particapating along with Andrea and Catherine.
It's interesting that Mulcair sees fit to weigh in on an Ontario election, but not a peep from him about Quebec's.
Mon, 2012-09-03 21:20
#86
http://www.catherinefife.com/mulcair-and-horwath-catherine-fife-is-the-b... From Catherine Fife's website, Tom Mulcair, Andrea Horwath, and Catherine Fife along with 200 volunteers. I'm glad Tom's particapating along with Andrea and Catherine.It's interesting that Mulcair sees fit to weigh in on an Ontario election, but not a peep from him about Quebec's.
Who would he weigh in behind? There is no Provincial NDP yet.
Mon, 2012-09-03 21:31
#87
knownothing
Exactly
Mon, 2012-09-03 21:38
#88
I think that poster is angry that Mulcair isn't telling Quebec federal NDP supporters to denounce Quebec Solidaire and work to make sure QS does badly in tomorrow's election, so that(I'm guessing) Mulcair can justify creating a Quebec NDP for the next National Assembly election. Probably wants Mulcair to endorse the so-called"Quebec Liberals"(even though that would mean giving up on all NDP principles) just to make sure that happens.
Never mind that doing so would mean supporting the death of the Quebec student movement and the permanent enshrinement of neoliberal economics in Quebec.
(sorry for the thread drift, but those who haven't been following the Quebec election threads need to know that that's what it's about.)
Mon, 2021-11-22 11:44
#89
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Mon, 2021-11-22 11:45
#90
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Mon, 2012-09-03 23:07
#91
My instincts tell me its between the Tories and the NDP. I keep hearing that the the Liberal signs are being swarmed out by NDP signs.
I mean even my Dad whose fairly anti union and teachers thinks McGuinity's being an asshole.
Mark my words this one will blow up in Dalton's face.
And its Dalton who should feel dirty, not you Jan.
@Very Far Away it sounds like you guys are doing a great Job, were routing for you guys!
@Asshole Liberals who display thier ignorance for all to see. Those slimy bench warmers who at best watched from thier sofas while Mulcair was working his ass off in 2 referumdums and six elections against Seperatist parties, think to call Thomas Mulcair a Seperatist are the lowest f'ing scum of the earth. Sad part is is that people unfamiliar with Mulcair record maybe convinced.
I wanted the Liberals defeated before, because Dalton doesn't deserve a Majority and Catherine Fife is wonderful. Now its personal, this is just the latest dishonest slander, I want them defeated to send a message to Dalton that your disgusting lies won't work.
Tue, 2012-09-04 10:33
#92
While rationally I do understand why it is that Mulcair has waded into Ontario by-elections but not a Quebec general election, it sure makes for one of those amusing "Canadian Heritage Moment" situtations. Mulcair tweeted about going to the Fife rally, and my friend replied with "Glad your position's clear on the most important prov elxn on now!"
Mon, 2021-11-22 11:45
#93
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Mon, 2021-11-22 11:46
#94
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Wed, 2012-09-05 01:56
#95
Let's see. One Forum tweet says outright that the Liberals won't get their majority. So either the poll has the Liberals out of contention, or what Forum just did there is basically say "The Liberals are at worst competitive in the byelection, but even if Eric Davis (their candidate) wins it and Levac resigns as Speaker after he's sworn in it's not like any Tories or New Democrats will be offering for the position of Speaker because all the Liberals have to do is vote en masse for some-not-one of their own and voila majority!" in the most obtusely roundabout way they could. That latter explanation is basically too silly (and doesn't really jive with the "big upset" tweet unless Davis is running away with it), so I'm going to conclude that the poll doesn't have the Liberals competitive.
That leaves one of four possible results, not mutually exclusive:
(1) Fife is leading, possibly outside the margin of error
(2) the Green is competitive?!
(3) a candidate from a party smaller than the Greens is beating at least one of Fife/Weiler/Davis!?
(4) Fife's campaign is a dud
Wed, 2012-09-05 06:23
#96
The NDP appears set to win a by-election that Liberal Premier Dalton McGuinty engineered in a Progressive Conservative riding with hopes of regaining a majority, a new poll suggests.
In the last major survey before Thursday’s vote in Kitchener-Waterloo, Forum Research found NDP candidate Catherine Fife, chair of the Ontario Public School Boards Association, at 42 per cent.
That’s well ahead of the Liberals’ Eric Davis, at 26 per cent, and, more surprisingly, the Tories’ Tracey Weiler, at 26 per cent. The Greens’ Stacey Danckert was at 6 per cent.
Wed, 2012-09-05 07:13
#97
Okay, then: the NDP's set to win w/a phoney majority. Unite the right! 
Mon, 2021-11-22 11:46
#98
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Wed, 2012-09-05 08:26
#99
autoworker
Should the Forum polls prove accurate, it's Hudak who'll be the loser, on both counts: for the lack of confidence (some might argue: opportunism) by a senior caucus member, and former cabinet minister (the reason for the by-election in K-W ), and with voters in a riding that generally votes whichever way the wind blows. Hudak's the reason the Ontario Liberals haven't been forced to reinvent themselves.
Wed, 2012-09-05 09:29
#100
While rationally I do understand why it is that Mulcair has waded into Ontario by-elections but not a Quebec general election, it sure makes for one of those amusing "Canadian Heritage Moment" situtations. Mulcair tweeted about going to the Fife rally, and my friend replied with "Glad your position's clear on the most important prov elxn on now!"
His position is clear. His position is he'll get position next election ;p
Seriously his position is he plans on thier being a QNDP next time.
Not that it should matter in an Ontario provincial bielection! :D
Wed, 2012-09-05 09:31
#101
Big moral here, don't fuck with teacher unions!