Ontario Riding of Windsor-Tecumseh By-Election

NorthReport wrote:

Good start for Horwath-led NDP as that Liberal majority becomes more elusive with each passing day

Forum Research poll:

NDP - 42%

Libs - 32%

Cons - 19%

Grn - 2%

Not to be Debater about it, but that same poll offered the "what if Pupatello were running" question, and the results were 44-31-18-3 for Pupatello.  (Which may all be moot now, anyway.)

adma wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Good start for Horwath-led NDP as that Liberal majority becomes more elusive with each passing day

Forum Research poll:

NDP - 42%

Libs - 32%

Cons - 19%

Grn - 2%

Not to be Debater about it, but that same poll offered the "what if Pupatello were running" question, and the results were 44-31-18-3 for Pupatello.  (Which may all be moot now, anyway.)

Pupatello is very popular in this neck of the woods. It wouldn't surprise me if she and Duncan run federally in 2015.

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It's not axiomatic that CAW members would vote against Pupatello or Duncan, federally, since many voted for them provincially. Also, does anyone remember the CAW jacket that Buzz Hargrove famously gave to Paul Martin (Windsor's favourite son)? Duncan has already been singing the praises of St. Justin, whose coattails seem to be growing longer, as his coronation draws nearer. In the meantime, as it stands, I'd say the NDP, without Pupatello in the running, would likely win this riding in a provincial election.

janfromthebruce wrote:

I'm thinking that with Buzz gone, long gone and a different leader, and also the Libs removing collective bargaining rights that the CAW members would be more inclined to support the NDP who voted against anti democratic legislation, and going down the path of the "right to work" state.

And blogger, Blunt Objects,  also suggests, like I thought, that the NDP actually stands a good chance in London West

 

By-election Outlook

While a PC win is not impossible, it doesn't necessarily look likely. Tim Hudak's party isn't going too well in polling, even if they're in first place most of the time; most polls have shown them underperforming the 35% they earned in 2011. If Hudak's party was polling better, I would actually be inclined to say they're the prohibitive favourites - but if it comes down to a Lib-PC fight, I'd place my bets on the Liberals.

Current Rolling Average for London West
34% Lib, 34% NDP, 27% PC, 4% Green

Innovative Jan. 27-29 Poll
37% Lib, 33% NDP, 25% PC, 4% Green

However, with the current upswing for the New Democrats in southwestern Ontario, they're the ones who could upset us! While the PCs haven't done as well in the region, the NDP have come up and their rise could threaten the Liberals in London West, especially in a by-election setting. The only reason we maintain the numbers we do is because of Bentley's strong performance in the riding; how much of that support is a personal vote for him, we don't really know. We could see the Liberals at a big disadvantage, or we could maintain steady support. Hard to know this far out, but we're going to have an interesting set of by-elections to be sure.

'Set of by-elections'?

To which seats are you referring to, jan?

So, it's believed that McGinty and Bentley are going to resign as M.P.P.'s?

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@janfromthebruce: Fair enough, but there's nothing to preclude the local riding association from approving an outsider. It's the electors who get the final say.

adma wrote:

Federally, Malcolm Allen was an "outsider" when first elected in Welland (i.e. he served on council in Pelham, which is just outside the riding's present boundaries)

I was thinking of someone with little or no local connection. For that matter, Paul Martin, or Buzz Hargrove, could claim one.