Alberta Polls

The WRA could come first in Edmonton. It's not impossible.

I find today's Forum Poll very encouraging:

Wildrose: 41
PC: 32
NDP: 13
Lib: 10
AB Party: 2

Edmonton

Wildrose: 30
PC: 31
NDP: 23
Lib: 14
AB Party: 1

It also shows that NDP at 15% in Southern Alberta, good news for Lethbridge West I expect.

The NDP vote from 2008 is holding far better than the Liberals and Tories.

The more seats we win the more likely an minority, as the Liberals aren't likely to win more than a couple of seats.

jerrym wrote:

Historically, the seat distribution in Alberta has been nowhere near the urban/rural population split, which suited the PCs fine until the last election because they had more support in rural areas. There was even a 1991 ruling by the Supreme Court to "allow population variances between provincial ridings of up to 25 per cent above or below the average"(www.albertaviews.ab.ca/2012/04/04/the-value-of-your-vote-march-2010/) - thus creating a potential difference of 50%.

Now that the PCs are more of an urban party compared to the Wildrose Party, they could redistrict ridings to more equitably distribute the Alberta population between ridings based on the 2011 census in order to favour themselves than the Wildrose Party? Since NDP support is still primarily urban this could also indirectly benefit the NDP. 

 

 

Wasn't the last Alberta election fought on new electoral boundaries?  If so, they won't be changed untill after the next census, won't they?

The poll has some other very interesting results. Believe it or not, for all of the criticism I have read of Brian Mason on this thread (I am not a Mason defender as I don't know enough about Alberta politics) he actually has the highest net approval rating (approval - disapproval) among an admittedly low level of competition with +5% while as mentioned above Redford is -25%, Wildrose Smith is +3%, and Liberal Sherman at -3%. 

The NDP at 16% are only 10% behind the PCs (Wildrose is at 38% and the Libs at 13%), which must be for the first time in decades if not for ever. In Edmonton, the NDP (26%) is statistically tied with Wildrose (27%) and the PCs (24%).

http://www.ctvnews.ca/polopoly_fs/1.1181379!/httpFile/file.pdf

Aristotleded24 wrote:

...In Calgary, the "progressive" opposition is still primarily behind the Liberals, so that would help lift their numbers as well.

Still, as popular as the NDP is in Edmonton, if there is no support outside the city, the NDP will hit a wall even there if it is not seen as a real contender. Certainly the NDP should be capitalizing on its base of strength there, but I hope Mason and all are building a strong foundation throughout the province (particularly in Lethbridge).

Well, I would argue that 14% in Calgary is not nothing. It's our best polling result there is quite some time, and up considerably from the 5% the NDP recieved there in the 2012 election.  At 14%, the NDP is essentially tied with the Liberals in Calgary.  They would start to become competitive in a seat or two there, although it might be a stretch to say that they could actually win. 

As for Lethbridge, the local candidate (Shannon Phillips) has shown no signs of slowing down and her riding association seems to be growing every time I look up.  She often tells me she wants to have a bigger membership in Lethbridge than we have in Edmonton Strathcona, and I fully expect her to reach that goal quite soon.

Lou Arab wrote:

Aristotleded24 wrote:

...In Calgary, the "progressive" opposition is still primarily behind the Liberals, so that would help lift their numbers as well.

Still, as popular as the NDP is in Edmonton, if there is no support outside the city, the NDP will hit a wall even there if it is not seen as a real contender. Certainly the NDP should be capitalizing on its base of strength there, but I hope Mason and all are building a strong foundation throughout the province (particularly in Lethbridge).

Well, I would argue that 14% in Calgary is not nothing. It's our best polling result there is quite some time, and up considerably from the 5% the NDP recieved there in the 2012 election.  At 14%, the NDP is essentially tied with the Liberals in Calgary.  They would start to become competitive in a seat or two there, although it might be a stretch to say that they could actually win. 

As for Lethbridge, the local candidate (Shannon Phillips) has shown no signs of slowing down and her riding association seems to be growing every time I look up.  She often tells me she wants to have a bigger membership in Lethbridge than we have in Edmonton Strathcona, and I fully expect her to reach that goal quite soon.

Considering the membership numbers I recall in Edmonton Strathcona, that would be impressive.

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Alberta NDP's Mason and Wild Rose's Danielle Smith go on tour together

Lots of AUPE members in Edmonton, wouldn't be surprised if disgruntled government employees are behind some of the uptick in NDP support in Edmonton.  

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Hurtin Albertan wrote:

Lots of AUPE members in Edmonton, wouldn't be surprised if disgruntled government employees are behind some of the uptick in NDP support in Edmonton.

I also assume that the results of the last Edmonton civic election play into it.

Possibly. But Edmonton had a very popular centre-right Liberal mayor in 1986, when the NDP took 11 out of 17 seats in the city. He was re-elected mayor a few months later. 

TiradeFaction wrote:

voice of the damned wrote:

Possibly. But Edmonton had a very popular centre-right Liberal mayor in 1986, when the NDP took 11 out of 17 seats in the city. He was re-elected mayor a few months later.

Wasn't that Laurence Decore, the eventual Alberta Liberal leader who pushed the Alberta PCs to the right in the 1993 election by running to their right? Or am I getting my history wrong?

Nope, your history is spot-on. It was ex-mayor Decore who first took up the austerity flag in '93, coining the phrase "massive and brutal cuts", which many people now wrongly associate with Klein. And that prompted Klein to jump on the same bandwagon.

That was also the election that saw the NDP wiped out from the legislature, in favour of the Liberals. The theory was that, in '86 and '89, Edmonton(and a few other scattered constituencies) was voting for an opposition, whereas in '93, they were voting for a government(and hence went over to the supposedly more credible Liberals). Unfortunately for Decore, the rest of Alberta didn't share that vision.

As well, the New Democrat Jan Reimer had been re-elected mayor a few months prior to the NDP legislature wipeout, further calling into question the connection between municipal and provincial voting habits among Edmontonians.

Has there been any indication that former provincial NDP leader Brian Mason could be running federally for the NDP once he doesn't re-offer in the upcoming provincial election?  Or has he said he's going to be staying in provincial politics?

NorthReport wrote:

NDP is now in 2nd place in Alberta. Could the NDP win?

PC - 26%, Down 4%

NDP - 23%, Up 1%

Libs - 20%, Unchanged

WR - 21%, Up 4%

AB - 9%, Down 1%

 

There is a drop in PC voter intentions: While this decline maybe be within the margin of of error, this drop appears likely driven via Prentice’s off-the-cuff “look in the mirror” statement on top of the electorate’s frustration with the province’s current fiscal mess and mounting job losses.

The NDP are growing in strength in Edmonton: Albeit sample size considerations, the NDP appear to be making major gains in the city. This comes at the expense of the decline in the conservative vote (for both the PC and Wildrose Parties).

Liberals appear to have problems ahead: Other the two major cities, where they are second, the Liberals are running no better than third everywhere else. This has a well known implication – the potential for vote splitting among centre/left parties. This includes the elimination of potential gains – for both the Liberals and NDP – in Edmonton if this data holds up.

 

http://1abvote.ca/poll-prentices-table-chat-pc-voting-intentions/

It seems this is not an actual poll in the traditional sense, but was done by the website which is trying to unify all the opposition parties that are not Wildrose:

http://1abvote.ca/

About the poll's methodology:

* THIS SURVEY WAS CONDUCTED VIA GOOGLE SURVEYS OVER MARCH 20 TO 22. GOOGLE SURVEYS USES A BAYESIAN, RIVER-SAMPLING METHODOLOGY – ONLINE AND MOBILE – TO YIELD A POPULATION REFLECTIVE SAMPLE OF ALBERTA’S POPULATION. HENCE, NO MARGIN OF ERROR IS REPORTED. OF NOTE, ALBERTA HAS AMONG THE HIGHEST PENETRATION RATES OF MOBILE USAGE IN NORTH AMERICA, AND BROADBAND INTERNET ACCESS EXCEEDS LAND LINE USAGE. GOOGLE SURVEYS WAS RATED AMONG THE BEST PERFORMING PLATFORMS IN THE 2012 US NATION ELECTIONS (RATED BY NATE SILVER, HTTP://FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.BLOGS.NYTIMES.COM/2012/11/10/WHICH-POLLS-FARED-BEST-AND-WORST-IN-THE-2012-PRESIDENTIAL-RACE/?_R=0), AND WAS USED EXTENSIVELY BY BRIAN F. SINGH IN HIS WORK ON BRIAN BOWMAN’S SUCCESSFUL MAYORAL CAMPAIGN IN THE 2014 WINNIPEG MUNICIPAL ELECTION. GOOGLE SURVEYS IS BUT ONE METHODOLOGY IN A POLLSTER’S TOOLKIT – WHILE NOT DEFINITIVE (AS HAS BEEN WITNESSED WITH OTHER POLLING METHODS), IT PROVIDES QUALITY DIRECTIONAL DATA THAT IS ABLE TO STAND ON ITS OWN AND IN CONCERT WITH OTHER MODES OF DATA COLLECTION, AND WE CROSS VALIDATE ITS FINDINGS FROM OTHER POLLING FIRMS THAT USE OTHER FORMS OF TRADITIONAL POLLING.

Here are the latest media-recognized polls:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/29th_Alberta_general_election#Opinion_polls

http://www.canada.com/news/Shocking+poll+signals+Wildrose+dead+heat/1093...

The survey also shows support for Rachel Notley’s NDP in Edmonton has reached 35 per cent, suggesting the NDP could sweep the capital.

“As it stands right now the NDP is poised to make huge gains in Edmonton,” Maggi said.

Some centrist and left-of-centre voters may feel the PCs have gone too far to the right under Prentice, and may park their vote with Notley’s party, Maggi said.

He noted the survey has the PCs running third in Edmonton with just 14 per cent of support, one percentage point behind the Wildrose and one ahead of the Liberals.

In Calgary, the PCs lead with 25 per cent, followed by the Wildrose at 21 per cent, the Liberals at 16 per cent, the NDP at 11 per cent and the Alberta Party at four per cent.

Among all voters (including undecided) provincially, the Tories and Wildrose are tied at 24 per cent, the NDP are at 15 per cent, the Liberals at 14 per cent, the Alberta Party at four per cent and the undecided at 20 per cent.

 

Newe poll puts NDP 15, Liberals 14, Wild Rose 24 and PC 24 -- all within ten points.

Is Alberta about to make things interesting?

It kinda looks like they're poised to pick up a seat or two. We'll have to wait and see. But thanks for the vote of confidence, ajay.