Atlantic Canada Polls - started June 8, 2012

And the good news just keeps on coming

Voter support for Dexter, NDP government dropping: CRA poll

Corporate Research CEO Don Mills said the numbers seem to suggest the NDP and Dexter have paid a price for power rate increases, though the government doesn't control those, and cuts to the education budget.

"At some point, dissatisfaction leads to less voter support, and I think we've certainly seen a fairly significant drop in voter support for the NDP in the last quarter for sure," Mills said.

Also Thursday, a national Angus Reid online poll found Dexter had the lowest approval rating among Canadian premiers at 27 per cent. Brad Wall of Saskatchewan topped the list at 67 per cent.

Canseco said one factor working against Dexter is having to contend with two relatively strong opposition parties, while most other provinces only have one.

"That certainly plays a role," Canseco said. "That being said, his numbers are down 12 points in six months, which is definitely not good."

I dont know about the two relatively strong opposition parties. Yes, there are two parties that are neither dead nor close to death. But Its not like Ontario.

felixr wrote:

Darrell Dexter is in the middle of pulling a Bob Rae: alienating his base and losing favour with the centre.

And pissing away all the hard work that Alexa McDonnough and Robert Chisholm put into building the NDP in the first place.

 A CRA poll of 400 New Brunswick voters with a margin of error of ±4.9%, done between November 13 and December 1, 2012, found that the NDP fell from 24% to 19% since three months ago, while the Progressive Conservatives stayed at 38% and the Liberals went up to 38% and a tie with the PCs from 32%. 

"Presently 46 percent (compared with 47% in August 2012) of New Brunswick residents are either completely or mostly satisfied with the provincial government, while a similar number (49%, unchanged) are dissatisfied. ... Three in ten New Brunswick residents prefer David Alward for Premier (29%, compared with 33%), while Brian Gallant of the Liberal Party is preferred by approximately three in ten (29%, up from 18% for Interim Leader Victor Boudreau). Support for Dominic Cardy of the NDP stands at 11 percent (compared with 15%)." (http://cra.ca/support-for-nb-pc-government-remains-stable-liberal-party-...)

The selection of a permanent Liberal leader is the most likely cause of the spike in Liberal support.

Despite the recent decline in NDP support, the current 19% of voters favouring the NDP is still significantly higher than the 10.41% it obtained in the September 2010 election. (http://www.electionalmanac.com/ea/new-brunswick/)

In a CRA Newfoundland and Labrador poll from November 13 to December 1, 2012 with a margin of error of ± 3.5%, the NDP has continued to hold onto to recent historically high level in support with 31% of voters choosing it compared to 33% in September and 28% in February (31% being within the margin of error of these previous results). This represents a significant climb from the already historically high 24.64% obtained in the October 2011 election. NDP leader Lorraine Michael is preferred for Premier by 29%, a statisical tie with her 31% in September.  Support for the Progressive Conservatives is up a statisically insignificant 1% for both the Conservatives (to 46%) and the Liberals (to 23%).

http://cra.ca/support-for-nl-pc-government-stable-remains-highest-in-atl...

http://www.electionalmanac.com/ea/newfoundland-labrador/

I'm known to be no fan of Dexter and this government, but I'm puzzled by his personal numbers.

Leader numbers are in practice a mash of what people think of the Leader, and also strongly tend to express where the party itself is headed.

Looking around me, I cant account why Darrel would be going down, or that the NDP is headed for more trouble.

I'd be interested in knowing from which parts of N.S. the polling firm called.

The economy around Halifax is set to expand tremendously once the shipbuilding contracts start.  That's where the majority of NDP seats are located, (16 seats of 23 within a one-hour drive of the two bridges).

It's the areas outside of metro Halifax where the Liberals have gained support, but with redistribution, there will be two new seats in the Halifax area, and 1 less seat overall (52 to 51 next election).

All the NDP has to do is keep the same number of seats around Halifax (or add some) plus as few of the more popular incumbants hold onto their rural seats, and the NDP can win another majority.

David Young wrote:

The economy around Halifax is set to expand tremendously once the shipbuilding contracts start.  That's where the majority of NDP seats are located, (16 seats of 23 within a one-hour drive of the two bridges).

The federal Conservative military procurement program is going to get people to vote for the NS NDP.  Is that really what you meant?

Realistically, it seems very likely that NS is headed for another minority government after the next election. I guess the question is whether it ends up being the NDP or the Libs with more seats - and even if the NDP had a plurality of seats, would the Tories form a coalition with the second place Liberals to "stop socialism in its tracks"? Othersise, how long could a minority NDP government last with the PCs holding the balance of poweer?

Even without dumping leaders, or the desire of many to do so, I think there is a very low likelihood of any kind of alliance between the Liberals and PCs to overpower an NDP plurality. It wouldn't be seen as legitimate. But more to the point, they dont have anything in common- certainly not a united front to get rid of the [not] dreaded socialists.

Against that there is the real fear the PCs would have of being pulverized after being a junior partner.

The same goes for NDP governing minority with the PCs holding the balance of power: unless something pretty dramatic changes, the PCs are going to be in fear of another election. Another page in how to govern Dexter can take from Harper- not nearly as vicious or ruthless [this is Nova Scotia]; nonetheless commonalities of how to wield power, and how to dominate the long games, regardless of what the horse race polls are saying at the moment.

The Dexter crowd is not quite as proficient as Harper at making sure all the ducks are lined up; but given the half-witted competition the NDP has historically faced, they dont have to be as good at it.

Even with current polling numbers and a 7 point Liberal advantage, seat prediction by thehundredeight.com gives the Liberals only 24 seats to the NDP's 20 with the PC's at 7 seats.

If the trend continues and the gap closes, the NDP could win re-election with a tie or even a point or two behind... similar to Glen Clark in BC.

Are you saying/guessing that close to a tie COULD give the NDP the most seats? Or that the NDP most likely will get the most seats if it is around a tie for the popular vote?

Something like that- for some [structural?] reason they will probably get more seats than their popular vote would indicate?

Dont think so.

The PEI PCs are imploding all on their own. They make people want to run from them.

Thay are the govt in NB. Nuff said, let alone what they do to encourage it.

The NS PCs seem to be trying to turn bland into an art form. They arent capable of offending anyone, or even of being associated with Harper.

Any theory on why it is that in Nova Scotia the Liberals have been the only beneficiary from the NDP slide while the PCs are still a distant third? Its not like there aren't typically lots of NDP/PC switchers in Nova Scotia and the PCs were the government less than four years ago.

I largely agree with David. One major caveat- that the NDP doesnt have the numerous Metro seats sewed up that have retiring incumbents. The Liberals are particularly on the move in Dartmouth. Let alone the NDP erosion in rural seats.

Stockholm wrote:

Its not like there aren't typically lots of NDP/PC switchers in Nova Scotia and the PCs were the government less than four years ago.

I dont really have any statistical backing for this, but I think that this traditional two-choice preference has become 'undefined' in Nova Scotia. Like maybe it still exists on paper, and people will answer that way if the question is abstract enough or an election is far enough away; but generally the 'switcher choice' isnt operative. So that when people who have voted NDP [last time at least] start drifting, they don't have much tendency to go back where they were.

In other words, if you poll people now for first and second choice- I think you'll find that for a whole lot of folks, one of those parties they have not voted for in the past.

The fog and stench of neoliberalism hangs heavy over the Atlantic coast.  For those who continue to maintain any faith at all in the political system, they're prone to gasping hi and low in search of a breath of fresh air that is nowhere to be found. 

For Nova Scotia's version of the marionette theatre, citizens are waking up from the usual performance to the fact that the NSNDP appeared better at remembering their lines while in opposition.

In an Angus Reid poll of 7,091 voters on the popularity of premiers, New Brunswick Premier David Alward had a 41% approval rating while NDP leader Dominic Cardy had 37% and Liberal leader Brian Gallant was at 41%.

Among NDP opposition leaders, Lorraine Michael came first at 61% ( Newfoundland), while BC's Dix tied for third place with Ontario's Andrea Horvath behind  and Danielle Smith (Alberta -Wildrose) at 53%. 

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/48733/saskatchewans-wall-keeps-place-as-...

Cardy, considering the relatively historic low position of the NDP in New Brunswick, is doing well, as are many other NDP leaders, with Cardy polling only 4 points behind the other party leaders in the province. 

In an Angus Reid poll of 7,091 voters on the popularity of premiers, only 30% of Nova Scotians approve of the performance of Darrell Dexter, while Liberal leader Stephen McNeil is at 48% and Progressive Conservative leader Jamie Baillie has 36%.

Among NDP opposition leaders, Lorraine Michael came first at 61% ( Newfoundland), while BC's Dix tied for third place with Ontario's Andrea Horvath behind  and Danielle Smith (Alberta -Wildrose) at 53%. 

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/48733/saskatchewans-wall-keeps-place-as-...

Dexter clearly has an uphill fight to win the next election but while the lead of his opponents is substantial, it is not overwhelming. Clearly many NDP opposition leaders across the country are doing well.  

There were no results given for PEI even in the full Angus Reid report. I suspect this was because they did not have a large enough sample to make it statisically reliable because of PEI's small population.

The problem is, it's likely that the inner circle of the NSNDP are all paid-up members of the "Nothing Doing" tendency...passionately committed to keeping the party uncommitted.

Not at all true what you say about the PC-NDP switching. It has been going on since 1997

In my experience, in rural NS we got MORE  switching from the PCs than the Liberals. Although that was my experience of who comes in to volunteer on campaigns, which is not necessarily moving the same dynamic of voter shifting. But I think that was also borne out by internal party polls.

Still, anything could be happening now. And that is related to how you are wrong: NS voters have broken from the old moulds, most of them for good. That said, there are a lot of indications the NDP has established a pretty high floor of support.... but only high enough to mean that coming out in first [usually with a plurality] is always very much in reach... and whatever the polls say when there is not an election immediately imminent.

The NDP are now in a statistical tie (with the Cons) for second place in New Brunswick. Notice the coverage - the PCs and NDP were "stuck" in a statistical tie, even though this represents a historic change from the also-ran usual position of the NDP in New Brunswick. 

Quote:

Liberal Leader Brian Gallant witnessed a growth in popularity for both his party and his leadership in the last three months, according to the latest Corporate Research Associates poll.

The Liberals opened up a lead in party support with 41 per cent of respondents saying they would vote for Gallant’s party.

The Progressive Conservatives and New Democratic Party were stuck in a statistical tie for second place, according to the CRA poll.

The Tories were supported by 29 per cent of respondents compared to 27 per cent who supported the NDP.

The satisfaction level for Premier David Alward's government has dropped to 38 per cent, according to the CRA poll. (CBC)

The Liberals gained six percentage points between February and May, while the Tories lost three percentage points and the NDP inched up by one percentage point.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/story/2013/06/06/nb-cra-poli...

jerrym wrote:

In terms of New Brunswick party leaders, all the party leaders are roughly 10% less popular than their party. However, the NDP's Dominic Cardy continues his upward climb in popularity. 

Quote:

David Alward’s personal popularity is stable this quarter, with two in ten New Brunswick residents preferring Alward for Premier (20%, compared with 21%). Meanwhile, Brian Gallant of the Liberal Party is preferred by three in ten (31%, compared with 26%) and support for Dominic Cardy of the NDP stands at 17% (compared with 15%).

http://cra.ca/popularity-of-nb-liberals-growing/

Its not quite true, CRA reports vote intention as a percent of people expressing a preference - they don't count the 40% who are undecided. When they ask "best Premier" they don't do that - they leave the DK/NAs in and that brings all the leader's totals down.