BC Election Predictions

Here's my prediction:

53 – NDP

31 – Liberal

01 – Independent

 

Abbotsford South – Liberal

Abbotsford West – Liberal

Abbotsford—Mission – Liberal

Alberni—Pacific Rim – NDP

Boundary—Similkameen – NDP

Burnaby North – NDP

Burnaby—Deer Lake – NDP

Burnaby—Edmonds – NDP

Burnaby—Lougheed – NDP

Cariboo North – NDP

Cariboo—Chilcotin – NDP

Chilliwack – Liberal

Chilliwack—Hope – Liberal

Columbia River—Revelstoke – NDP

Comox Valley – NDP

Coquitlam—Burke Mountain – NDP

Coquitlam—Maillardville – NDP

Cowichan Valley – NDP

Delta North – NDP

Delta South – Independent

Esquimalt—Royal Roads – NDP

Fort Langley—Aldergrove – Liberal

Fraser—Nicola – NDP

Juan de Fuca – NDP

Kamloops—North Thompson – NDP

Kamloops—South Thompson – NDP

Kelowna—Lake Country – Liberal

Kelowna—Mission – Liberal

Kootenay East – Liberal

Kootenay—West – NDP

Langley – Liberal

Maple Ridge-Mission – NDP

Maple Ridge—Pitt Meadows – NDP

Nanaimo – NDP

Nanaimo—North Cowichan – NDP

Nechako Lakes – Liberal

Nelson—Creston – NDP

New Westminster – NDP

North Coast – NDP

North Island – NDP

North Vancouver—Lonsdale – NDP

North Vancouver—Seymour – Liberal

Oak Bay—Gordon Head – Liberal

Parksville—Qualicum – Liberal

Peace River North – Liberal

Peace River South – Liberal

Penticton – Liberal

Port Coquitlam – NDP

Port Moody—Coquitlam – NDP

Powell River—Sunshine Coast – NDP

Prince George—Mackenzie – NDP

Prince George—Valemount – Liberal

Richmond Centre – Liberal

Richmond East – Liberal

Richmond Steveston – Liberal

Saanich North and the Islands – NDP

Saanich South – NDP

Sushwap – Liberal

Skeena – NDP

Stikine – NDP

Surrey—Cloverdale – Liberal

Surrey—Fleetwood – NDP

Surrey—Green Timbers – NDP

Surrey—Newton – NDP

Surrey—Panorama – NDP

Surrey—Tynehead – NDP

Surrey—Whalley – NDP

Surrey—White Rock – Liberal

Vancouver—Fairview – NDP

Vancouver—False Creek – Liberal

Vancouver—Fraserview – NDP

Vancouver—Hastings – NDP

Vancouver—Kensington – NDP

Vancouver—Kingsway – NDP

Vancouver—Langara – Liberal

Vancouver—Mount Pleasant – NDP

Vancouver—Point Grey – NDP

Vancouver—Quilchena – Liberal

Vancouver—West End – NDP

Vernon—Monashee – Liberal

Victoria—Beacon Hill – NDP

Victoria—Swan Lake – NDP

West Vancouver—Capilano – Liberal

West Vancouver—Sea to Sky – Liberal

Westside—Kelowna – Liberal

 

I'm in Victoria - Beacon Hill. Is it safe to vote Green? I really want to support them but I'd just croak if I thought my vote would help the Liberals.

ghoris, the Greens have a very progressive stance on mental health. They would seek to amend our provincial legislation to get into line with our Canadian Charter. I am passionately interested in psychiatric rights and am genuinely thrilled about this.

ghoris wrote:

Policywonk wrote:

We'll see. I would like to see Chong lose, but it depends on where the Green votes are coming from. I think Left Turn called the Kelowna seats for the Liberals, which is the probable outcome. Whether Gwen O'Mahony hangs on in Chilliwack-Hope depends on how well the Conservatives do. They finished a relatively strong third in the by-election and I can't see them doing as well given their collapse since then, and the Liberals only have ten percentage points to pick up. Parksville-Qualicum could go NDP. Barry Avis was a popular town councillor in Qualicum Beach, although I agree Parksville and the extreme North end of Nanaimo are not exactly fertile ground. There is no Green Candidate there, which helps Avis, and several prominent greens are supporting him.

I may have misread, but I think LT originally called both Kelowna seats for the NDP and then amended his prediction from 55 NDP seats to 53 (changing the Kelowna seats to the Liberals). I have amended my comments reflect that.

Parksville could very well go NDP, but then again Comox Valley could very well go Liberal, so it's probably a wash in terms of trying to predict the seat count.

Re: Oak Bay - I hope I am wrong, but given the strong showing of the Greens in the federal Victoria by-election (sidebar: the Green candidate was my Torts prof at UVic Law), and what I am hearing from people on the ground, I think the Greens will do well enough to let Chong win with something like 30% of the vote. I strongly suspect that the Greens take a significantly higher percentage of votes from the provincial NDP than they do the Liberals, although federally it might be a different story.

Chong can't win with 30% of the vote unless the Conservatives get at least 10% (there are only four candidates). Given the last Angus Reid poll had the NDP at 46% on the Island to the Liberals at 28%, the Greens at 16% and the Conservatives at 9%, the Liberals and Greens will be hard pressed to win any seats between them. That may also allow people to feel safe voting Green though, both in constituencies where the NDP is a lock and also where the Greens have a decent shot at winning.

ghoris wrote:

I may have misread, but I think LT originally called both Kelowna seats for the NDP and then amended his prediction from 55 NDP seats to 53 (changing the Kelowna seats to the Liberals). I have amended my comments reflect that.

I accidentally typed NDP instead of Liberal next to two of the Kelowna seats. Looking over the post after I'd typed it, I caught the error and made the change. I don't see any chance of the Kelowna seats going NDP.

ghoris wrote:

I also (sadly) have to agree with Left Turn's call of a win for Ida Chong in Oak Bay-Gordon Head. Ida seems to be the 'Hedy Fry' of provincial politics - every election people predict her defeat, and yet she manages to hang on. This time, a combination of a strong Green campaign which will split the non-Liberal vote, plus the changing demographics of the riding, will deliver a narrow win to Chong (interestingly, these are pretty much the same factors that let Fry win the last few elections).

I think the msm are way overinflating Andrew Weaver's chances in Oak-Bay Gordon Head in order to split the anti-Liberal vote and let Ida Chong win. I predict this riding will be a fairly close Lib-NDP fight, with the greens being reasonably far behind in third, albeit with a higher percentage of the votes than if the msm were not pumping up the green's chances there. If the msm were not pumping up the green in Oak Bay-Gordon Head, I'd predict an NDP win.

ghoris wrote:

@Aristotle - governments typically fare poorly in by-elections (particularly in BC), and there was quite a low turn-out. As you note, Chilliwack-Hope has no real NDP history - based on their past track record, they probably have a better chance in Chilliwack. The Liberals were polling in the mid-20s when the by-election happened, just barely ahead of the Conservative, and there were real doubt about whether they would survive as the "free enterprise party" until a general election. Now they are doing at least 10 points better and the non-NDP vote is coalescing around them. The Conservative candidate in the by-election collected 25% of the vote. Ironically, he is now running as a Liberal in neighbouring Chilliwack.  Most of that vote can reasonably be expected to migrate to the Liberals. Gwen O'Mahony hasn't been in office long enough to establish much of an 'incumbency advantage'. Add it all up and it is much more likely that Laurie Throness will win this time.

@Francesca - the Liberals have no realistic chance to win Victoria-Beacon Hill (they only collected about 25% of the vote last time when their province-wide vote was 46%), so you are probably safe to vote Green there. I am curious as to why you are more inclined to vote Green than NDP - is there a particular issue that, in your view, sets them apart? (I am not looking for a flame war here, I am genuinely curious.)

ETA: Jane Sterk running against Carole James in Beacon Hill stikes me as a pretty boneheaded move from a strategy perspective. Shades of Elizabeth May taking on Peter MacKay in a hopeless battle in Central Nova in 2008, whereas if she had run in Saanich-Gulf Islands that election she would have most certainly won easily. Sterk would have had a good chance at winning a seat in the Legislature had she run in Oak Bay-Gordon Head or Saanich North and the Islands, but this is a real head-scratcher from a strategic perspective.

 

As far as Jane Sterk choosing Beacon Hill, I seem to recall that her choice to parachute into this riding was at the time Carole was forced out as leader of the party.  Carole had not yet announced her future intentions of continueing on in the NDP.  Jane thought she would be landing in a riding that would have had a new NDP candidate.  It was a clear opportunitstic political move for Jane and the Greens that back fired on her.

Change of thread for those wanting to comment on BC Election Day: reactions, results, and everything else.

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kropotkin1951 wrote:

If it is a close race between the NDP and Greens then it will not help the Liberals if she votes for either party. If she wants to see Greens elected then why should she vote NDP?

My thoughts exactly. I have to make a decision now because I'm off to vote in about an hour.

janfromthebruce wrote:

Francesca Allan wrote:

I'm in Victoria - Beacon Hill. Is it safe to vote Green? I really want to support them but I'd just croak if I thought my vote would help the Liberals.

Some people are suggesting you are safe to vote Green, however, BC Icoclastic suggested that this is a close race between the Green and NDP (Carol James), so perhaps you should vote NDP to be on the safe side: http://bciconcoclast.blogspot.ca/p/my-prediction-of-2013-election.html

Victoria Beacon Hill - Greens 45%, NDP 45%, Libs 10% NDP loss

It's a stretch to think that the Greens could be as high as 45% and the Liberals as low as 10% in this constituency. In the Victoria federal by-election the combined Liberal and Conservative vote was around 27%. The other CP (Communists) are running, not the Conservatives. I think Sterk will finish a distant second, as James is just too popular.

I want to call an even 50 for the NDP, based on no reason. I want to call 1 Green MLA out of sympathy, and 1 Independent because everyone else is. I guess that makes the Liberals left with 34?

Consider yourselves predicted.

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janfromthebruce wrote:

Policywonk wrote:

janfromthebruce wrote:

Francesca Allan wrote:

I'm in Victoria - Beacon Hill. Is it safe to vote Green? I really want to support them but I'd just croak if I thought my vote would help the Liberals.

Some people are suggesting you are safe to vote Green, however, BC Icoclastic suggested that this is a close race between the Green and NDP (Carol James), so perhaps you should vote NDP to be on the safe side: http://bciconcoclast.blogspot.ca/p/my-prediction-of-2013-election.html

Victoria Beacon Hill - Greens 45%, NDP 45%, Libs 10% NDP loss

It's a stretch to think that the Greens could be as high as 45% and the Liberals as low as 10% in this constituency. In the Victoria federal by-election the combined Liberal and Conservative vote was around 27%. The other CP (Communists) are running, not the Conservatives. I think Sterk will finish a distant second, as James is just too popular.

Francesca Allan you asked the question and I also responded with additional information. The snerk from others was unnecessary.

This was not intended as snerk (do you mean snark), just more information and opinion. If Francesca wants to vote Green that's her business. I don't think the Greens will be as high as 45% and the Liberals as low as 10%. The Greens could take it if they get 40%, the NDP 35%, the Liberals 24% and the CP 1%, but I don't think that will happen.

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Francesca Allan wrote:

I'm in Victoria - Beacon Hill. Is it safe to vote Green? I really want to support them but I'd just croak if I thought my vote would help the Liberals.

As an NDP supporter (who lives in Manitoba) my advice is that if you feel that strongly about voting for the Greens, then just vote Green and don't worry about whether or not it is safe to do so. At the end of the day, the parties are there to represent you, and you need to pick what is your best fit. Perhaps the NDP will see the Green vote and adopt some of the Green policies you really like. Perhaps the NDP will ignore those policies, in which case the Greens may eventually get in on their own and change the policy. I say this as someone who in the past 2 federal elections, voted NDP even though my area is a Liberal-Conservative race and that helping out the Liberals could have made a difference to the outcome, because I believe that strongly in what the NDP represents.

Right on.

I predict 52 NDP 31 Liberal (not including Clark), 1 Green (Weaver, not Sterk) and 1 Independent (Huntington)

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