The only way that the NDP can reach out to the groups they need to is to become more open to new ideas. I've seen young people get engaged with the party and then get disillusioned really quickly when they realized their role was to fund raise but not to have any real say in making policy.
How did you know exactly what I experienced in my dealings with the Manitoba NDP?
Obviouslyl this leader and this strategy were total, unqualified failures. Something else and someone else are needed.
The conversation needs to start now, methinks.
The only thing i will predict is we will be having this same conversation again in four years sadly...
The NDP needs to address the growth of the Greens. A Vancouver Sun article notes that, if all the people who voted Green had voted NDP, the NDP would have won. Of course, this is simplistic because some would have voted Liberal or not voted at all, but it does show that further growth of the Greens will impact the liklihood of the NDP gaining power. Furthermore, the presumptive heir of the provincial Greens leadership, Andrew Weaver, has shown himself to be an effective media communicator, leaving aside the poliicies that he is promoting. We should never underestimate our opposition, as some did with regards to Christy, in the last election.
An analysis of the results by The Vancouver Sun reveals that in 12 ridings where the Liberals won, the party received a smaller share of the vote than the NDP and Green party combined. ...
In a scenario where all Green votes went to the NDP and all Conservative votes went to the Liberals, the Liberals would have won Tuesday, 45 seats to 39, with one Independent.
http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Adrian+would+premier+Green+supporters+v...
The NDP must therefore find a way of peeling off some potential Green voters, and of attracting more of the disengaged young, minorities and poor to vote.
Another problem for the NDP is that the Conservative collapse under Cummins is likely to guarantee that no substantive Conservative or further right party is likely to challenge the Liberals in the next election, while the NDP will have to fight off the Greens for voters on part of its political spectrum. That is, essentially we are likely to be fighting a full Liberal-Conservative coalition. The only chance for a right-wing alternative on the Conservative is a maverick, who is so outside the mainstream that he has little appeal, like Cummins had, but who would have even less appeal because of the disaster that the Cummins campaign was.
The NDP must also appeal to voters in the Interior, where beyond the traditional NDP seats in the Kootenays, it struck out. Since many of these Interior voters live in small resource-centered towns with few alternative employment alternatives, and often have limited education further restricting their employment mobility, they are even more susceptible to the classic Liberal-Conservative fear campaign built on the image that a NDP government is too risky economically. Since 2008 governments of all stripes, even the NDP in Manitoba, have been running and winning on a fear campaign that is especially effective in a time of severe economic downturn. We know this approach is coming again in 2017. Unless the NDP can allay these fears in at least some of the other Interior ridings outside the Kootenays, it will lose the next election.
We have the time to explore the specific concerns of these different voters in a manner somewhat similar manner to Obama and then develop a program based on both our principles and their concerns rather than enunciating a platform based on what we think will work.
We can also learn from the Obama campaign to win the 2012 election. Obama, in many ways is right wing and not the greatest administrator, but he knows how to win elections. Obama began his campaign immediately after the 2008 election by keeping the campaign machine in place and using it and social networking involving e-mails, tweets etc. to communicate with supporters. It targeted groups that would support Democratic values but traditionally voted in low numbers, such as the young, minorities and the poor. It experimented on what works best with different population segments in motivating them to vote rather than giving them a prescribed set of programs or talking points. The website connection at the bottom of the page has a video in which three reporters discuss Obama's campaign strategy and tactics.
The main theme of the campaign was that you could count on Obama to stand up for you, which is similar to what Glen Clark (I am not a big fan of his governing style) used successfully in 1996, in that it focused on economic issues first and it is something that any NDP leader could use anywhere in the country.
The Democrats felt that the key to winning was softening up Romney early in the campaign during the Republican primaries. The NDP tried this and were so successful against Bill Bennett that he resigned and was replaced by Vanderzalm in 1986, who then won the election. To some extent this happened again with Campbell and Christy. So a negative campaign needs to be directed against Christy Clark and the Liberals in case Christy drops way down in the polls and the Liberals pick a new leader (remember the "801" group who wanted to overthrow her is silent now but could spring into action if she falters badly).
Building on the information gained in the 2008 campaign, Obama's team identified who was on their side, what would motivate them to vote, and then got out the vote. Through experimentation, they identified who would likely be the best type of person to contact the prospective voter and what message worked best for that type of voter, constantly updating their data bank with new information rather than giving a prescribed formula of talking points based on a top-down set of platform planks.
One should never forget that Obama was both a community organizer and trained in the rough and tumble world of Chicago politics. Organizing a community was something he understood very well. Chicago politics, like those of Boston and New York, were dominated by Irish politicians for a century or more after the massive Irish immigration following the Irish Famine of the 1840s-1850s. As Tom Hayden, one of the Chicago Seven radicals prosecuted in a city run by Mayor Daley, came to understand in later life and outlined in his book, Irish on the Inside, Daley (as corrupt and right-wing as he was) saw himself and to some extent was, as promoting the movement of the Irish out of the bottom rung of society that they, along with African Americans, found themselves in when they first arrived in the US. These politicians, including the Kennedys (JFK's and RFK's grandfather was a Boston mayor), knew how to appeal to the immediate concerns of the lower working class. As Tip O'Neal, Speaker of the House and another Boston politician, said "All politics are local". In other words, if you are not addressing the immediate concerns of a voter, forget it.
Interestingly, Lorne Nystrom tells a similar story about Tommy Douglas. When asked what was the best advice he could give a starting politican, Lorne told a story Tommy Douglas told him when Nystrom was first elected. Douglas said that during the 1930s he gave a speech in Saskatchewan where he warned about the growing danger of Hitler and Naziism, the possibility of a world war, and the damaging effects on families and individuals of the Great Depression. After the speech, a farmer walked up to him and said the speech was fine, but he had left out the most important thing - the price of pigs. Tommy warned Lorne to never leave out the price of pigs.
Unfortunately, I think Dix often left out the price of pigs. In addition, I think we at Babble develop political platforms of social, economic and environmental justice that are great in theory but often do not address the immediate concerns of the busy, economically-challenged lives of our potential supporters who are most concerned with their immediate problems because they do not have the time, money or effort to focus beyond that. One can put forward a far, forward-reaching platform, but it must be grounded in meeting the immediate concerns of voters - concerns that sometimes are different than those of activists, like me, on the Internet.
President Obama secured a second term by building a massive ground game to move voters, and by running negative ads early in the campaign.
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/politics/july-dec12/tactics_11-07.html
Knowing that they defeated the NDP on two issues of trust, namely you can't trust the NDP with the economy and you can't trust Dix after he lied for Glen Clark, you can be sure the Liberals will be repeat this with Dix or any other leader. We therefore need someone who has no personal past trust problems and is an effective communicator both in terms of building personal trust, like Jack Layton was, and in terms of laying out an economic and environmental strategy that appeals to at least part of the middle class, as well as the working and poor classes and the young, and of quickly and effectively countering the Liberal attacks on this plan and identifying the problems with the Liberal economic plan and leadership. Without the support of a significant part of the middle class, you are not going to win an election in this province.
if he's interested, Nathan Cullen would make for a great BC NDP leader. He's got a winning personality and an impecable reputation and his ability to speak French would not be a factor here in BC.
He's also beaten a right-wing representative on his own turf, and is not saddled with the baggage of being just another left-wing-yuppie-urbane-socialist. He knows how to appeal to voters in rural and remote areas.
Best of all, his idea of the Liberals and NDP co-operating to block the Conservatives has been most effective in BC!
Just read some of the previous posts about purity tests.
I don't think the NDP has a political future here in BC.
Yes they will remain as Official Opposition for another election or two, but basically they are done.
How can you expect the labour movement, at least in the construction sector, to continue to support a political party that does not focus on jobs and prosperity as their front and centre number one issue?
How do you spell GREEN?
Than who would be the left of centre alternative to the Liberals? The Greens? You just said the NDP can't win because they don't focus on jobs and are somewhat anti-development. The Greens are even more anti-development than the NDP.
.
I doubt the ticket thing or the past mistake did in Dix.
Nobidy really votes on those things by themselves or Gordon wouldn't have been reelected.
Don't get me wrong, it doesn't help, but people care about two things. The Big issues, especially the ones that immediately effect them, and feelings/instincts/subconcious impressions.
Actually Jan the memo thingy is one of the things that did the BC NDP in.
The Liberals or their supporters ran attack ads for months leading up to the election about it
During the debate Adrian said he was only 35 years old when he did it. WTF!!!
It was obviously going to come up in the debate - what was the prep response?
Then the BC Liberals ran more ads following the debate making a mockery of his justification.
People can have problems in their past, but it is how they are addressed.
Obviously the memo was an issue but where was the camapign team on that.
Where were the ads showing Clark going through a red light right in the middle of an electional campaign, etc.
How dumb can you be to allow your leader, around who the whole camapign revolves, be destroyed like Adrian was?
Many voters, including NDP voters, went to the voting booth, disturbed about the memo
The Hill & Knowlton boardroom, etc. must be very pleased.
Let's face it, left-wing politics is no match for the right-wing professionalism they face. Apart from Rob Ford that is! :)
Knowing that they defeated the NDP on two issues of trust, namely you can't trust the NDP with the economy and you can't trust Dix after he lied for Glen Clark, you can be sure the Liberals will be repeat this with Dix or any other leader. We therefore need someone who has no personal past trust problems and is an effective communicator both in terms of building personal trust, like Jack Layton was, and in terms of laying out an economic and environmental strategy that appeals to at least part of the middle class, as well as the working and poor classes and the young, and of quickly and effectively countering the Liberal attacks on this plan and identifying the problems with the Liberal economic plan and leadership. Without the support of a significant part of the middle class, you are not going to win an election in this province.
Dix made a mistake and was honest about it. Meanwhile, Clark did how many lies, ran a red light, and also ensured her last name was spelled differently so as not to signal the press that she was before the courts just before the election?
So now the NDP must ensure that the leader is pure as driven snow so that the MSM and their reps in politics don't make hay. Aren't we all missing something here and that "they" will make something out of nothing and the press will do their dirty work for them.
Jack Layton had to deal with that over and over again. eg. He and Olivia had lived in cooperative housing during their municipal years but even in the last election - again - it reared its head and smearers/haters lied about it. The same tired lie. In the last week, we had the "massage palour" scandal that was deflated but I'm sure if he hadn't been riding high in the polls and that dirt had started early in the campaign it might have picked up traction.
So this is how a recent politico dealt with past misdeeds:
Coderre was touched briefly by the sponsorship scandal, when it was revealed he’d stayed at the cottage of an advertising executive.
“Old stories like this will surface, but you know what? There’s been three elections since then and I believe in the confidence and the judgment of people who gave me their support,” Coderre said.
So Dix has held his seat for how long? He answered honestly.
.
.
If Jack had lived, we would be dealing with the massage parlour incident over and over again. It doesn't matter how old or how many times it's addressed, the NDP is repainted each time.
If Jack's response had been something like "I was 35", there would have been no Orange Crush. You need someone who can communicate and respond effectively, because no matter who you are, the attacks are coming. Dix's response was an important factor in the defeat, although the failure to communicate an economic plan that captured the imagination of the voters was likely more important.
I honestly don't think saying "I was 35" made any difference at all. The Liberals tried to run an ad making fun oif Dix over that - but it was only a "viral" youtube ad...and quite frankly unless an ad is accompanies by a real, live ad BUY (you know when a party pays millions to run it on TV) - its worthless. Who do you think actually looks at ads that only exist on youtube? basically a few political junkies working in each party's war room - that's it.
I only wish it was soooo simple as the NDP losing hundreds of thousandfs of votes because Adrian Dix said three words - but I can assure you ther answer is far more complex than that
You're right...what, as you see it, were the key factors?
And what are your basic feelings about the BCNDP strategic decision to make it clear that they really don't care about the the homeless or the rest of the poor and wouldn't do much more at all to deal with poverty than the BC Libs were going to(that is, little more than the nothing that's being done now)?
Doesn't this result make a pretty clear case against the effectiveness of such tactics?
Well... here are some BC Liberal internal polling results for female voters and voters 55+ over the course of the campaign, which overall predicted internally on Friday, before the Tuesday election, that the Libs would garner 48 seats (50 actually) and have a 5% spread in their favour.
Compare those figures to Angus Reid's last numbers for the same demographics and draw your own conclusions about polling.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/142218886/Internal-B-C-Liberal-polls-showed-Christy-Clark-momentum
http://www.angus-reid.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/2013.05.13_Politics_BC.pdf
So, does that mean women were still mad about Carole James being forced out?
Yeah, I laughed when I first heard that slogan. It was so painfully obvious they were trying not to scare people. "Don't worry! We won't do anything! Promise!" But like most others, I shrugged my shoulders. I mean, whatever they were doing seemed to be working like a charm. In all the time I've been in BC, I've never seen polls so decidedly in support of the NDP. Hard to argue with that.
I always thought Dix was a liability, not because of the memo thing, but because he's too much the stereotype of the urban effete intellectual. When I watched the candidates speak in the leadership race, Dix was the most polished, but also the one who seemed to be walking through the process with the least effort, a style that continued in the campaign.
Carole James was platform co-chair.
I know many people here will disagree, but this campaign, as almost all campaigns are, are all about jobs and proserity, no matter how much the right-wing lie about it during an election campaign. As long as the NDP does not get that, they will be consigned to the political wilderness. Most voters don't differentiate about who the crooks are, they think most politicians are self-interested thieves.
So, does that mean women were still mad about Carole James being forced out?
I know many people here will disagree, but this campaign, as almost all campaigns are, are all about jobs and proserity, no matter how much the right-wing lie about it during an election campaign. As long as the NDP does not get that, they will be consigned to the political wilderness.
The NDP could make the economic success of social democracy clear to Canadians. Social democratic countries like Finland, Sweden, the Netherlands, Germany, Denmark, and Norway are all in the top 13 worldwide in the global competitiveness report and ahead of Canada which is in 14th place. Social democracy, good jobs, prosperity and economic competitiveness all go hand in hand and it's time the NDP informed Canadians of this.
Psychologists have shown that in society and in politics security trumps economic prosperity and prosperity trumps social equality. That's why the Liberals slogan "Strong Economy , Secure Tommorow" trumped the NDP's "Change for the better, one step at a time." Maybe the NDP should get more advice from social psychologists? It would seem that the other parties in Canada already have.
ccmalls46, spam bot baby, have you got any soylent green at a good price?
haha, Fidel, I wish I could "like" your comment.
Dix has said he's staying so the point in moot.
He has two months to prove he's changed, big time, before a Calore James Mutiny occurses.
Just saying he takes full responsiblity isn't enough, he has to provide real change and a sense that the party has a new direction, in a host of ways. My suggestion is clear out the old guard and get some fresh perpective and ideas. Eby and Mulcair should be sought out for thier advice.
self-delete-dupe post.
He needs to do the following
1)Include the BCNDP base in the policy decision-making process, and then DEFEND the legitimacy of the role of that base(and of activists in general)in political life in B.C.. People who hate activists and look down on movements for social change aren't EVER going to vote for the NDP in ANY manifestation, no matter what-because you can't hate activists and still HAVE any progressive values. It's simply impossible. And nobody's going to vote for a party that act like its core supporters are something to be ashamed of. People don't trust parties that do that.
2)Make a real effort to bring all the potential NDP voters who didn't get to the polls out to vote next time...and this means actually connecting to the poor(including the homeless) and to displaced working-class people who have lost under the status quo. He won't win over the finicky centrists that way, but he was never going to get them anyway and they aren't the majority.
3)Actually make a real critique of neoliberalism, and make the case to the mainstream of B.C. voters that neoliberalism and austerity aren't good for THEM.
None of these steps could possibly cause a worse result than the one the party just had, and all have the potential to make the party matter again.
The only things that failed were caution and fear of being different. Those things always will fail.
He won't win over the finicky centrists that way, but he was never going to get them anyway and they aren't the majority.
My experience is that centrist voters can tell when a politician is pandering and trying to win their votes, so they aren't as impressed as the pollsters will tell you.
In any case, I agree with the rest of your post. Right-wing politicians are never shy about implementing their agenda, and those who straddle the fence politically are quite impressed with that. Would be if the left ever campaigned or governed with that kind of conviction and pulled the fence-sitters their way instead. And it's worked. There's a huge Reform-NDP swing vote out West because these voters want someone who will stand up for their interests against the elites, so it's a matter of making a case for who the real elites are.
Would be if the left ever campaigned or governed with that kind of conviction and pulled the fence-sitters their way instead. And it's worked. There's a huge Reform-NDP swing vote out West because these voters want someone who will stand up for their interests against the elites, so it's a matter of making a case for who the real elites are.
Yeps.
Would be if the left ever campaigned or governed with that kind of conviction and pulled the fence-sitters their way instead. And it's worked. There's a huge Reform-NDP swing vote out West because these voters want someone who will stand up for their interests against the elites, so it's a matter of making a case for who the real elites are.Yeps.
Copy that.
The right would have you believe that the "privileged" are the welfare recipients, the public sector workers... maybe anyone with even a WHIF of a "handout" through the taxpayers. Except where does that leave the oil companies? And at what point does the tax code "flatten" so much that low taxes ARE a handout?
Messaging is powerful. The NDP's brand has always been anti-elitist, and any marketer would tell you that you can't pull a 180 on your branding. (Especially not when it's been working.)
http://www.nationalpost.com/m/wp/full-comment/blog.html?b=fullcomment.na...
One person it certainly won't be is Jane Shin. Another disaster, but on the bright short ofva plague of Locusts thristy for dipper blood, I;don't see how things can get worse.
Brachina that was a hatchet piece that leaves out half the story. Indeed Jane disappeared because the local media, including the reporter mentioned in the article, hounded her throughout the campaign trying to make something out of nothing. Dr. Shin has never claimed she is a practicing Doctor. The BCMA (the Doctors professional organization) have stated publicly that she is a member and entitled to call herself a Doctor under the rules governing the profession. She teaches medical science types of courses at a couple of the community colleges where she is always listed as Dr. Jane Shin.
By the way in Burnaby the after the vote parties are not usually just one riding doing its own thing. That is because the central party is often held in Burnaby so I presume the central party at the Convention Centre was were volunteers were being sent.
I am flabbergasted to see an NDP partisan willing to dismiss, a woman who has just became the first Korean Canadian elected as MLA, because the Nazi Post doesn't like her. No wonder I don't feel comfortable in your party anymore.
Frankly, that piece sounds like they were trying to turn Dr. Shin into the Ruth-Ellen Brousseau of B.C. provincial politics.
Well, REB won and so did Dr. Shin...so there are SOME limits to what the Pest can do.
Brachina that was a hatchet piece that leaves out half the story. Indeed Jane disappeared because the local media, including the reporter mentioned in the article, hounded her throughout the campaign trying to make something out of nothing. Dr. Shin has never claimed she is a practicing Doctor. The BCMA (the Doctors professional organization) have stated publicly that she is a member and entitled to call herself a Doctor under the rules governing the profession. She teaches medical science types of courses at a couple of the community colleges where she is always listed as Dr. Jane Shin.
By the way in Burnaby the after the vote parties are not usually just one riding doing its own thing. That is because the central party is often held in Burnaby so I presume the central party at the Convention Centre was were volunteers were being sent.
I am flabbergasted to see an NDP partisan willing to dismiss, a woman who has just became the first Korean Canadian elected as MLA, because the Nazi Post doesn't like her. No wonder I don't feel comfortable in your party anymore.
I apologize, I did not have the full story,;should hsve known better then to trust a Journalist.
I feel terrible. Cingrats to her for her victory, and again I apologize.
My advice is to stop reading the Nazi Post.
