The future of politics in B.C.

During the federal leadership campaign Topp stressed repeatedly that negative campaigning would not work for the NDP and that the best approach would be a suuny, optimistic campaign. I think he may  have written an article promoting this thesis.

In light of this, I wonder how much influence he had in the BC NDP's disasterous turn-the-other-cheek campaign

It is ironic that Topp was the only leadership candidate to run a largely negative campaign, paticularly against Tom Mulcair.

For the heck of it, a list of all seats that changed hands, with gender trends also highlighted since the news has noted the increase in women. Note the massive turnover in Liberal holds due to retirement. Everyone was fleeing because they thought the ship was going down. For whatever it's worth, almost half of this Liberal caucus is going to be a newer set of bodies.

As far as I can tell, in only one riding did a woman replace another (New Westminster). If I'm not mistaken the total count of women goes up by 2. The NDP gains three women, retires one and loses two. The Liberals retire two women, lose three and gain seven (I cancelled out the riding change of Stephanie Cadieux, as she replaces a retiring man and a man takes her old seat).

+ = Woman replaces a man (total 10)

# = Man replaces a woman (total 8)

* = Woman replaces a woman (total 1)

~ = Man replaces a man (total 13)

NDP hold (retiring incumbent)

* New Westminster: Dawn Black -> Judy Darcy

+ North Coast: Gary Coons -> Jennifer Rice

*1, +1

1M, 1F -> 2F

Liberal hold (retiring incumbent or change of riding)

~ Abbotsford-Mission: Randy Hawes -> Simon Gibson

~ Chilliwack: John Les -> John Martin

~ Kamloops-South Thompson: Kevin Krueger -> Todd Stone

+ Parksville-Qualicum: Ron Cantelon -> Michelle Stilwell

~ Peace River South: Blair Lekstrom -> Mike Bernier

~ Prince George-Mackenzie: Pat Bell -> Mike Morris

~ Penticton: Bill Barisoff -> Dan Ashton

+ Richmond Centre: Rob Howard -> Teresa Wat

~ Shuswap: George Abbott -> Greg Kyllo

+ Surrey-Cloverdale: Kevin Falcon -> Stephanie Cadieux

# Surrey-Panorama: Stephanie Cadieux -> Marvin Hunt

~ Surrey-Tynehead: Dave Hayer -> Amrik Virk

# Vancouver-False Creek: Mary McNeil -> Sam Sullivan

+ Vancouver-Fraserview: Kash Heed -> Suzanne Anton

~ Vancouver-Quilchena: Colin Hanson -> Andrew Wilkinson

# West Vancouver-Sea to Sky: Joan McIntyre -> Jordan Sturdy

~9, +4, #3

13M/3F -> 12M/4F

Liberal gain (from IND or NDP)

~ Abbotsford South: John van Dongen (IND) -> Darryl Plecas

+ Boundary-Similkameen: John Slater -> Linda Larson 

+ Cariboo North: Bob Simpson (IND) -> Coralee Oakes

# Chilliwack-Hope: Gwen O'Mahony -> Laurie Throness

# Coquitlam-Maillardville: Diane Thorne -> Steve Kim

~ Delta North: Guy Gentner -> Scott Hamilton

+ Fraser-Nicola: Harry Lali -> Jackie Tegart

~ Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows: Michael Sather -> Doug Bing

+ Port Moody-Coquitlam: Joe Trasolini -> Linda Reimer

~ Surrey-Fleetwood: Jagrup Brar -> Peter Fassbender

~3, +4, #2

7M/2F -> 5M/4F

NDP gain (all from LIB)

+ Burnaby-Lougheed: Harry Bloy -> Jane Shin

~ Saanich North and the Islands: Murray Coell -> Gary Holman

# Vancouver-Fairview: Margaret MacDiarmid -> George Heyman

# Vancouver-Point Grey: Christy Clark -> David Eby

+1, ~1, #2

2M/2F -> 3M/1F

Green gain (from LIB)

# Oak Bay-Gordon Head: Ida Chong -> Andrew Weaver 

1F -> 1M 

Be funny if they were almost all NDP and turned the whole election around. Now that would be a roller coaster.

Layton's effective positioning against Ignatieff was greatly aided by the Conservative's huge attack campaign against Ignatieff. It may have been a mistake to take a lot of the battle stragety of the 2013 federal NDP campaign to the 2013 provincial BC campaign. The BC NDP was in a very different position than the federal NDP was. The federal NDP under Layton was in third place in a four-way race while the BC NDP led significantly in a two-way race. The federal election saw the Harper government target the Ignatieff Liberals so the federal NDP won a lot of support on the left by default because of the Conservative's successful attack ads so it made sense for the federal NDP to take a positive approach and just watch the other parties discredit each other. But the BC NDP were not in the position the federal NDP was in. They were being attacked like Ignatieff's distant 2nd place party was but they were in a strong first place position like Harper's party was. Strategically, the BC NDP was in a position closer to the Harper Conservative's than the Layton NDP. In retrospect Dix's NDP should have attacked the BC Liberals like the Harper Conservative's attacked the Ignatieff Liberals. The downside to that strategy would have been that it could have helped both the BC Conservatives and the BC Greens but those parties were so far behind they had little chance of winning. If the BC NDP had attacked the BC Liberals aggressively it probably would have worked for Dix as it had worked for Harper and it may have even led to a "blue wave" BC Conservative official opposition. The BC NDP may have lost because it attempted to fight the last war.

http://m.news1130.com/2013/05/15/students-elect-ndp-government-in-mock-e...

These are the future and clearly smarter then thier parents, we just have to learn how to get them to vote and take back thier future.

Well... here is Brian Topp's first post-election response that I can find:

Quote:

Brian Topp says:May 16, 2013 at 3:47 pm

Ian this is an ill-tempered post. I was thanking our incredibly hard-working campaign team, and telling them the truth, which is that this result did not happen because of anything wrong with their work or their effort. Clearly we made some grave strategic mistakes. I take my full measure of responsibility for them. I’ll write about this, once our leader has spoken publicly about the campaign. I’m not sure how much we’ll learn from bitter score-settling. Bt

And from the same blog what appears to be one NDP campaign manager's assessment of Head office:

Quote:

I believe that the central campaign needs to wear this stunning loss. All the local campaigns worked their guts out. In my opinion, the incessant and greedy begging for money from Burnaby pissed off locals and deprived the local campaigns of badly needed dollars. The non-stop and uncoordinated IVRs and VBMs, along with uncontrolled and apparently unsupervised central phoning didn’t help either. We got 24 volunteer slips from one round, and only one real volunteer. It also came with 34 sign slips; of which 12 had actually requested a sign. Every New Democrat should be mortified at the mess that passed for a campaign that came out of Burnaby.

http://therealstory.ca/2013-05-16/bc-politics/take-it-from-the-topp/comment-page-1#comments

well I see we need our pound of flesh. Sure looks like we are eating our own, just like the libs. I have to say it because it makes me sad. And disgusted.

cya all, I can't be a part of this.

Its worth a read...if you enjoy a lot of petty, vindictive personal attacks and insults with not one constructive comment made.

A week ago when people thought the NDP was going to win, everyone thought the campaign was fantastic, then the NDP lost and suddenly all these "know it alls" come out of the woodwork. I'm not defending every decision the campaign team made and I agree that there should be self-examination, but I think that EVERYONE working on the campaign was working 100% in good faith trying to win the election - sometimes a strategy works sometimes it doesn't - everyone has 20/20 hind sight.

I have no problem with people making CONSTRUCTIVE comments about what should have or could have been done differently in this campaign - but when people start spreading innuendo implying that key members of the campaign were disloyal traitors trying to purposely sabotage the campaign - stop right there. Nothing is gained by having the BC NDP descend into a federal Liberal style circular firing squad.

In particular it seems that strategists were tuned into the reality that starts on Vancouver Island and ends in Burnaby - the geography of everywhere that the NDP gained seats. The seat losses all happened east of Burnaby and north of Vancouver. Which in part explains the severe disconnect that activists in the city are feeling. On the ground, here, it *really* felt like the polls were right and the province was turning orange.

Honestly, I'm having trouble blaming Dix or Topp for the election campaign. Like others, I have been a bit miffed at the way Topp hasn't taken responsibility for its disastrous failure (although I can also understand it after the two years he's had). I've also criticized the campaign for its excessive appeal to centrist values and attempt to talk down to the expectations of its more leftist base. But no one thought they would lose. I mean, no one. Not even the Liberals -- I call bullshit on their internal polling. I think insiders thought it would be closer, but never another Liberal win. So yes, there is a lot of analysis and criticism to be done, but how can you turn on a campaign all good sense was saying was winning? I find it a bit rich that anyone can call for the heads of Topp or Dix when everyone was predicting an NDP majority Tuesday morning -- even the realstory.ca predicted 54 NDP seats -- which is even more than most avid partisans predicted. And then he turns around and pillories Brian Topp? Chutzpah.

Aristotleded24 wrote:

The truth about these strategists is that they live lives very far removed from the average person, and are not as adversely affected by decisions of governments like Christy Clark as the average person is. [...] Don't give me this crap about "things will be worse under a PC government," because when you're living on social assistance and the rates have not gone up in nearly 2 decades (the Chamber of Commerce and the PC Leader, among others, have called out Manitoba's NDP government on this travesty), or you're struggling to survive on 2 minimum-wage jobs, the only thing you konw is that none of the politicians care about you and that caring about politicians is a waste of time because they're all the same and that the politicians will keep lying to you once you're elected. The professionalization of the NDP at all levels in this country is worrisome because it separates the party from the working people that it claims to represent.

I couldn't agree more with this.

Quote:

Yet Mr. de Jong’s message was consistent with the Liberals’ cranked-up rhetoric about the scary NDP. Although Christy Clark delivered it with a beaming smile, it was still the same age-old theme that has defined elections in this polarized province since premier W.A.C. Bennett uttered his legendary warning 44 years ago: “The socialist hordes are at the gates, my friends!” And, as it has in almost every election campaign in which the NDP appeared on the verge of victory, the tactic worked. Although other factors play a role and circumstances vary, voters still draw back at the last minute and voice their fears at the ballot box. An exit poll conducted by Ipsos Reid indicated that 11 per cent of voters made up their minds only when they marked their X. Most of them voted Liberal.

NorthReport wrote:

Libby Davies has stated you run in every election as if your life depended on it - guess the BC NDP forgot about that.

As did the late Ralph Klein, even though he never had to worry.

yeah, we're doomed and so better just pack up and fold shop. Why waste our time. Ditto for babble/rabble. It's a waste of space too.

The NDP failed to win because it did not focus on the economic question. While pointing out that Scandavian or NDP-run provincial economies show that social democracies are globally competitve and socially successful may be a acknowledged by political junkies, it will never register with the casual voter or the disinterested non-voter because they will simply ignore information that they cannot check against their personal lives and communities. 

Dix at the start of the next legislative session, should start the next legislative session by demanding that Christy live up to her trillion dollar LNG fantasy pipedream and let her know that the NDP will be here to hold the Liberals to account. The NDP should point out the this pipedream is growing ever more questionable as time passes. The NDP should not wait until this pipedream has failed because it has virtually no chance of success, and, if by some miracle beyond my compreshension, it does succeed there is no chance of the NDP winning the next election. It also needs to point out the environmental risks associated with the increased tanker traffic, pipeline leaks, and First Nations blocades.

Even now the recently signed Russia-China pipeline deal raises major eonomic questions as the counted on much higher Asian energy prices drop as supply increases. When coupled with China's own fossil fuel production, as well as Australia's and Indonesia's (see below), most of which will be exported to Asian nations, prices will drop and supplies and carbon dioxide levels will increase well above the 400 ppm carbon dioxide level we just passed this week.  In fact, Woodside Petroleum has just cancelled the Australian Browse Basin natural gas field project because of market competition. 

http://rt.com/business/china-become-russia-biggest-oil-client-667/

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2013/jan/22/china-australia-carbon...

Point of No Return study

http://nols.blogs.com/nols_news/2013/04/natural-gas-project-cancelled-in...

However, the NDP will also need a set of economic policies that attract voters, especially those in the Interior, where alternative employment is rare in many of the towns, moving to another job often means moving the family to another community, selling your home in a depressed market in one industry towns at a loss when the industry shuts down. The Liberals knew this and capitalized on it during their campaign.You can bet they will try it again in the next election. 

People in the Interior often feel urban people and politicians do not understand their concerns, as I learned from three years of living there. It is no accident that the only ridings the NDP won in the Interior were its traditional Kootenay ridings. Without an set of economic policies that helps win some of these Liberal ridings, the NDP will be in opposition again.