Ontario polling thread (April 18, 2012)

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Wed, 2013-07-24 21:54

jfb

From 308, this was a excellent trend

Forum was last in the field on June 26, another of their snap, one-day polls. The PCs gained one point since then, to lead with 36% support. The Liberals were down two points to 31%, while the New Democrats were up three points to 27%. While that is the biggest change of the main parties, it is still within the theoretical margin of error. However, if we look at where the parties stood at the end of May, we see that the NDP has picked up six points over that time while the Liberals have dropped seven. That could be a worrying trend for the OLP if it doesn't stop.

snip

In that context, it is remarkable how steady the Tories have been in Forum's polling. They have been at 34%, 35%, or 36% in the firm's last six polls going back to March. The Liberals have wobbled more significantly, with between 31% and 38% over that time. The NDP has also seen a good deal of fluctuations, with between 21% and 27% support. This suggests that voters are swinging between the OLP and the NDP.

Regionally, only two shifts in support appear worth highlighting: an 11-point gain for the Liberals in eastern Ontario (good news for John Fraser in Ottawa South) and a 10-point gain for the NDP in southwestern Ontario (good news for Percy Hatfield in Windsor-Tecumseh and Peggy Sattler in London West). The PCs have the edge in eastern Ontario, northern Ontario (which stretches down to around Barrie in Forum's estimation), and the 905 area code, while the NDP is ahead in the southwest and the Liberals in Toronto.

Thu, 2013-07-25 22:49

#203

jfb

what's interesting is that Eric over at 308 didn't initially mention the trend of the NDP gaining 6 points over the last several polls until a tweeter challenged his article and not even mentioning the NDP had gained 3 pts.

Once he saw that he said he would mention something in the article and hence what we saw above. So a supposed pollster doesn't see a trend? Nay, because good old Eric is a liberal guy and prefers omitting the real story in the data.

Pretty sad.

Sat, 2013-08-03 01:30

#204

NorthReport

So the pollsters got it wrong again apparently - was Forum Research the least accurate.

Sat, 2013-08-03 13:43

#205

jfb

I don't know NR - too busy working the Sattler campaign in London West to bother with the pollsters. I knew we were going to win on the ground. My door step conversations and getting our vote out told the real story.

Sat, 2013-08-03 14:33

#206

Geoff

Nora Loreto's article from Today's Top Picks on Rabble is an excellent analysis of the by-elections, as well as next steps for the NDP. What's the 'next big idea' that will fire the imaginations of Ontarians. We need something both positive and creative. Griping about gas plants is going to wear thin, I think.

Sat, 2013-08-03 17:33

#207

edmundoconnor

Geoff wrote:

Nora Loreto's article from Today's Top Picks on Rabble is an excellent analysis of the by-elections, as well as next steps for the NDP. What's the 'next big idea' that will fire the imaginations of Ontarians. We need something both positive and creative. Griping about gas plants is going to wear thin, I think.

My suggestion in three words: public auto insurance.

Sat, 2013-08-03 17:35

#208

edmundoconnor

Sat, 2013-08-03 20:03

#209

Helsinki

edmundoconnor wrote:

Geoff wrote:

Nora Loreto's article from Today's Top Picks on Rabble is an excellent analysis of the by-elections, as well as next steps for the NDP. What's the 'next big idea' that will fire the imaginations of Ontarians. We need something both positive and creative. Griping about gas plants is going to wear thin, I think.

My suggestion in three words: public auto insurance.

Better idea: free public transit. That would win the support of young people, seniors and urban voters.

Sat, 2013-08-03 21:14

#210

autoworker autoworker's picture

Helsinki wrote:

edmundoconnor wrote:

Geoff wrote:

Nora Loreto's article from Today's Top Picks on Rabble is an excellent analysis of the by-elections, as well as next steps for the NDP. What's the 'next big idea' that will fire the imaginations of Ontarians. We need something both positive and creative. Griping about gas plants is going to wear thin, I think.

My suggestion in three words: public auto insurance.

Better idea: free public transit. That would win the support of young people, seniors and urban voters.

'Free rides' doesn't seem like a winnable election slogan, to me

Sun, 2013-08-04 10:27

#211

jfb

AW pegged that right.

Sun, 2013-08-04 11:47

#212

Geoff

Perhaps a proposal for portable pensions would be a good idea, given the precarious work that an increasing number of Ontarians are being forced to rely on.

Sun, 2013-08-04 16:24

#213

Aristotleded24

Geoff wrote:
Perhaps a proposal for portable pensions would be a good idea, given the precarious work that an increasing number of Ontarians are being forced to rely on.

Precarious work aside, people even make decisions to change careers or jobs quite frequently.

Sun, 2013-08-04 17:24

#214

wage zombie

I think making some public transit free in limited zones could be part of a bold new transit plan. I think it could be sold if done well. Definitely a well considered rural component would be necessary.

I doubt there's enough vision in the ONDP though to commit to that bold of a plan at this point.

Sun, 2013-08-04 17:33

#215

Unionist

How about affordable public child care? Don't mind me, just interfering...

Sun, 2013-08-04 20:26

#216

autoworker autoworker's picture

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Geoff wrote:
Perhaps a proposal for portable pensions would be a good idea, given the precarious work that an increasing number of Ontarians are being forced to rely on.

Precarious work aside, people even make decisions to change careers or jobs quite frequently.

Most voters don't enjoy defined benefit pensions. Making it a main issue might only serve to rub that in. Besides, I doubt that that even applies to precarious workplaces. Proposing to raise minimum wage and benefit standards would be more effective in getting precarious workers to exercise their franchise. If the ONDP is serious about improving the lot of such workers, it should target polls with low turnout, and actually get their electors to vote, with the hope of raisng their circumstances, rather than securing the pensions and benefits of the organized. The bottom line being: What's in it for them?

Sun, 2013-08-04 22:12

#217

Aristotleded24

Unionist wrote:
How about affordable public child care?

You might be able to sell that as part and parcel of a larger vision, but I don't think that in and of itself would really galvanize people.

Sun, 2013-08-04 22:59

#218

Unionist

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Unionist wrote:
How about affordable public child care?

You might be able to sell that as part and parcel of a larger vision, but I don't think that in and of itself would really galvanize people.

True. Ok, maybe go with public auto insurance. It got the ONDP elected in 1990, so try it again!

Mon, 2013-08-05 02:56

#219

autoworker autoworker's picture

Perhaps Ontario could afford public daycare if it addresses the 'fiscal imbalance' during the next year's equalization negotiations. Ontario needs a bigger slice of that pie before the ONDP can promise anything.

Mon, 2013-08-05 05:28

#220

Hamiltonian

I think a solid childcare strategy needs to be at the heart of the NDP's platform next election. It offers something tangible. It speaks volumes about the NDP brand & it's what the public expects from the NDP. It's what so many families want & need -- it would similar to when Tommy Douglas brought power lines to rural Sask. Finally, it would win the hearts of the biggest group of swing voters -- young moms. Also, childcare is a hot topic thanks to Libs poorly planned all day kindergarten & it's crippling affect on childcare centers. The best thing the NDP could do is come out with a childcare plan ASAP before the Libs do -- we need to be the first ones out of the gate.

Mon, 2013-08-05 11:57

#221

Aristotleded24

Hamiltonian wrote:
I think a solid childcare strategy needs to be at the heart of the NDP's platform next election. It offers something tangible. It speaks volumes about the NDP brand & it's what the public expects from the NDP. It's what so many families want & need

There are many people without families, so this wouldn't speak to them at all.

One of the issues with voter turn-out is that all parties campaign assuming that as people grow up, they will eventually all settle down and get themselves some nice, middle-class families. This is becoming the reality for fewer and fewer people, so as this becomes the case, then it's no wonder that voter turn-out is declining.

Mon, 2013-08-05 14:03

#222

Unionist

Ok, here it is - I'm not wedded to the precise formulation:

[size=15]Public Auto Insurance - and this time we really mean it![/size]

... accompanied by a sincere-looking photo of Andrea Horwath, with the catchline: "Not your 1990 NDP."

Thoughts?

Mon, 2013-08-05 14:13

#223

mark_alfred

Thoughts? I think your tendency toward occasional humorous snipes is going into over-drive.

Mon, 2013-08-05 16:11

#224

edmundoconnor

Public auto insurance was one of the first things the Saskatchewan CCF did when they got into power in 1944. SGI has remained a provincial government agency because it's popular, it's cheap, and it works. My sister-in-law pays $100 a month for a policy in SK with all the trimmings. An identical driver in Ontario pays multiples of that. No provincial government has dared to seriously consider abolishing or privatizing it. Not Thatcher, not Devine, not Wall. I'd call that a substantial and lasting legacy. No province that has enacted public auto insurance has gone back to the private option.

It will be an enormous fight to change it, but it can be done. The NDP has to have the strength of its convictions, and stand by a policy that will get them votes, is true to their ideals, and is honouring the very best of its past.

Mon, 2013-08-05 16:13

#225

jfb

for sure Mark. For those who need childcare it's important and although the number of children per household has declined, the need has not. Perhaps we don't need public education either because of the decline in student enrolment.

Yes, Bob Rae was a wet noddle - thank goodness he went to his natural home of the liberals who now are campaigning on a joint in every mouth - whether you need it or not.

Mon, 2013-08-05 16:24

#226

edmundoconnor

Mon, 2013-08-05 17:12

#227

wage zombie

janfromthebruce wrote:

Yes, Bob Rae was a wet noddle - thank goodness he went to his natural home of the liberals who now are campaigning on a joint in every mouth - whether you need it or not.

That's not very inclusive, Jan. Why would you want to alienate pot activists?

Mon, 2013-08-05 19:15

#228

Unionist

[size=12] Because legalization is now a Liberal issue, so we need to oppose it. Remember Dana Larsen? We showed him! [/size]

Mon, 2013-08-05 20:03

#229

jfb

Because it is a holiday Monday and I am joking. I've always supported decriminalization of pot and thought it was stupid. I thought it more stupid when Harper got all those progressive libs, including Trudeau to support his increase in minimum jail time - WTG.

And I was joking and also being very inclusive.

I'm sick of the snipping at any suggestions that come forward from the same babblers who just like to do put downs. Sick of it, and agree with Mark. It's turned into a nasty space.

Mon, 2013-08-05 22:06

#230

autoworker autoworker's picture

Ontario needs a serious discussion about revenue, before contemplating a wish list of new programs. Many baby boomers, who are now becoming more dependent on health care, and its escalating costs, tend to think about that.

Tue, 2013-08-06 02:15

#231

PrairieDemocrat15

autoworker wrote:
Ontario needs a serious discussion about revenue, before contemplating a wish list of new programs. Many baby boomers, who are now becoming more dependent on health care, and its escalating costs, tend to think about that.

It is true Ontario has a revenue problem, but public auto is self-financing. In fact, it is a source of revenue in the provinces that have it.

Wed, 2013-08-07 04:06

#232

autoworker autoworker's picture

PrairieDemocrat15 wrote:

autoworker wrote:
Ontario needs a serious discussion about revenue, before contemplating a wish list of new programs. Many baby boomers, who are now becoming more dependent on health care, and its escalating costs, tend to think about that.

It is true Ontario has a revenue problem, but public auto is self-financing. In fact, it is a source of revenue in the provinces that have it.

I wasn't thinking of auto insurance as a program expenditure.

Thu, 2013-09-12 23:19

#233

mark_alfred

Latest poll from Abacus (Sept 12 2013) says it's practically a three-way tie between the NDP, Libs, and Cons. link

Fri, 2013-09-13 20:24

#234

jfb

The header says "Poll reveals dead heat in Ontario"

TORONTO - Ontario’s three political parties are in a virtual dead heat as Premier Kathleen Wynne’s honeymoon with voters has come to an end, a new Abacus Data poll has revealed.

Ontario Tories have a slight lead with the support of 33% of Ontarians, and the Liberals and New Democrats are tied in second place with 30% support, Abacus found.

snip

Of the three leaders, the NDP’s Andrea Horwath shows the most promise with strong popularity numbers.

The glow around newly-minted Premier Kathleen Wynne has faded after seven months in office.

More people now have a negative impression of her, with 36% viewing her less favourably compared to 31% who have a more positive view of the premier.

The opposite was true in previous polling.

snip

PC Leader Tim Hudak’s popularity numbers remain weak — 42% of Ontarians polled view him negatively, while only 20% have a positive impression.

Abacus Data dug deep into what voters thought of the three political leaders, asking a range of questions from who’s qualified to be premier to who they thought had a clear vision for Ontario.

Horwath scored ahead of her two main opponents on all positive traits with the majority of Ontarians finding her to be the most likeable and honest leader.

snip

“In the wake of Wynne’s fall, Andrea Horwath emerged as the frontrunner in terms of leadership attributes ... perhaps most importantly, she (is) now tied with Kathleen Wynne on being qualified to be premier.”

Voters were asked to assess the three parties on their ability to manage the economy and the Liberals and NDP were tied again.

Progressive Conservatives were slightly ahead of the Liberals and NDP on managing the economy.

Abacus Data surveyed 1,000 Ontarians and the margin of error is +/-3.1%.

Take note that it is a 3 way tie because the margin is about 3%.

Fri, 2013-09-13 22:55

#235

felixr

Anyone see what Horwath's actually popularity numbers are? She's in first but I want to know how she rates compared to the party, etc.

Fri, 2013-09-13 23:06

#236

felixr

Nvm, found it:

Quote:
Not only has NDP support increased by 5% since May, according to the poll, but Horwath is viewed as a top-notch leader, now tied with Wynne in the minds of voters as to who would make the best premier. Not only do 40% of those asked think she’s qualified to be premier (compared to 31% who disagree) but 60% of respondents feel she is likeable and 54% believe she is honest.

Sat, 2013-09-14 00:50

#237

jerrym

felixr wrote:

Anyone see what Horwath's actually popularity numbers are? She's in first but I want to know how she rates compared to the party, etc.

This should put a smile on your face.

Quote:
As the Liberal honeymoon with Kathleen Wynne comes to an end, her positive score slipped by three percentage points from May, dropping down to 31%. Meanwhile, Andrea Horwath’s positive numbers jumped by five percentage points over the same period to 38%, making her the only leader tested with a net positive score. ...

Although his negative numbers have dropped slightly since May, Tim Hudak remains the least liked of the three major party leaders. Almost a majority of Ontarians have a negative impression of the Leader of the Opposition (42%) while only 20% view him positively.

http://abacusinsider.com/politics-public-affairs/ontario-politics-tories...

Sat, 2013-09-14 14:21

#238

mark_alfred

It's good news. Hopefully things will continue to grow. Of concern is that the NDP rank lowest when it comes to economic development, which seems to be a major factor come election time. Plus, they score highest with the voting groups that typically are less reliable when it comes to actually showing up at the polls. Still, it's very good news that they're tied with the other two in popularity, and that Andrea is the most popular of the leaders. Great stuff.

Thu, 2013-09-19 20:46

#239

jfb

Ontario Politics: Tories lead by 3; Ontario Liberals and NDP tied at 30% | Abacus Insider

Since May, the Tories down 1, the Liberals are down 4 and the NDP is up 5. The Green Party is at 5% while 15% of respondents were undecided.

Qualified to be Ontario Premier: NDP Horwath 56% (+4), Lib Wynne 54% (-5), PC Hudak 46% (-2)

Get the Picture:

Fri, 2013-09-20 08:42

#240

josh

You would think pollsters would have learned from the BC and Alberta debacles. Using only "committted voters" as the universe of voters is worthless, and creates a high possibility of pollsters having egg on their faces the day after the election.

Fri, 2013-09-20 09:14

#241

kropotkin1951

While it may date me it seems that when I read the polling threads I can't help thinking of this classic song.

Spike Jones wrote:

Pd... And now they come down to the wire

And it's number one

And now number two

And it's very close

There'll need to be a photo finish

Or an oil painting

And now Louis leads with a left

And Louis is in there slugging

And it's a battle

And now they're tearing hair

There's hair all over the ring

There's hair all over the place I don't know whose hair it is, ah ah

It's mine

Pd... And there goes the winner ...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BavRrRNvz8g

Fri, 2013-09-20 16:39

#242

jfb

So good to have good polls and Andrea has been leading for over a year. I know the Liberals are all down in the face about that. How can that be when the media party spends day after day trying to boost the corporate parties and try to hide the Lib govt's big boo-boos.

Tue, 2013-10-29 09:53

#243

jfb

Better Canada Pension Plan more popular than proposed Ontario version, poll suggests

The poll also shows the three main parties continue in a tight race with Tim Hudak's Conservatives at 34 per cent, Wynne's minority Liberals at 31, Andrea Horwath's NDP at 27, and the Green Party at 7 per cent.

snip

"It's been a bad month for the Liberals," said Bozinoff, who added Hudak and his Conservatives do not appear to have enjoyed a bounce following the scathing report on power plant cancellation and relocation costs.
"The thing, surprisingly, is the Tories didn't get any benefit. And they have been really leading the charge on the gas plants."

Just some gems. Can't find all the results so don't know if numbers have changed and no revelation about leadership numbers.

Tue, 2013-10-29 12:40

#244

Stockholm

The previous Forum poll at the very end of August was PC 35, OLP 32 and NDP 26...so there is very little change - but with the gap between the Liberals and NDP down to 4 points - things get interesting.

In the 1975 Ontario election, the province wide popular vote was PC 36%, OLP 34% and NDP 29% - In seats that yielded PCs 51, NDP 38 (!) and OLP 36...the Ontario liberal vote becomes very inefficient very quickly once it drops below a certain level and then they start shedding seats like crazy!

Tue, 2013-10-29 17:53

#245

jfb

Well Stock, when 308 did the seat projections he only gave the NDP 18 seats thus suggesting that the NDP is in itself very inefficient.

Tue, 2013-10-29 22:42

#246

adma

But that's 308 mishandling projection methodology. After all, NDP "inefficiency" is simply the outcome of their recent-past history of concentrating on a cluster of "winnable" seats rather than spreading their resources more broadly.

Tue, 2013-10-29 22:56

#247

Stockholm

janfromthebruce wrote:

Well Stock, when 308 did the seat projections he only gave the NDP 18 seats thus suggesting that the NDP is in itself very inefficient.

No, 308 has done seat projections in Ontario that typically give the ONDP 28-29 seats based on current polling averages. Its Forum that has this ludicrous "seat projection model" for Ontario that makes no sense at all. Their latest one gives the Liberals 50 seats with 31% of the vote. it is not mathematically possible to go from 38% to 31% and only lose two seats - IMPOSSIBLE...there are way more than two seats that the OLP only won very narrowly in 2011 that would have to fall if the Liberals lost about a quarter of their vote share.

Tue, 2013-10-29 23:21

#248

jfb

okay, my mistake. I was quite surprised by the seat projection particularly when I looked at the poll numbers and thought that there was a strange methology used.

Thu, 2013-11-07 20:00

#249

jfb

Socially Democratic ‏@Social_Dem 25m

Ipsos in GTA: OLP 38%, ONDP 35%, PCPO 23%. Big growth for @andreahorwath! http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=6311 … #onpoli #topoli

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=6311

a new Ipsos Reid poll of provincial voting intentions, conducted for CTV News/CP24/CFRB Newstalk 1010 reveals that Premier Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals are holding the lead and have slightly improved on their bid for re-election, but the NDP led by Andrea Horwath are on the move, tightening the three-way race. If an election were held tomorrow, Premier Wynne’s Liberal party would receive 34% of the vote among decided voters, unchanged since May. Support for Time Hudak’s Progressive Conservatives has eased to 31% (down 3 points), while Andrea Horwath’s NDP have made serious gains and also sit at 31% of the vote (up 5 points).

snip

However, in the most-populous part of the province, the GTA, the Liberals (38%) and NDP (35%) lead the lagging Tories (23%).

snip

While the turnout figures don’t much help the NDP, they are buoyed by the fact that 20% of Ontarians would choose them as the party they would support second, well ahead of the proportion who says the same about the Tories (12%) or Grits (12%). In particular, among Liberal voters, 50% of them would choose the NDP second, compared to just 21% who would vote PC second.

snip

On the issue of who would make the best Premier of Ontario, the three major-party leaders are tangled up in nearly a three-way tie. Kathleen Wynne is selected as the best Premier by 33% of Ontarians (no change), followed closely by 29% who say Horwath would make the best Premier (no change), and Hudak is close behind (28%, down 3 points).

And pic shows it all