Is BC headed for an unprecedented economic boom?

If Sensible BC succeeds, and we move to legalization of marijuana, BC will have a massive economic boom.

Marijuana is BC's largest industry, or at least one of the top three. Legalization, regulation and taxation will immediately bring substantial economic benefits to everyone in BC.

It's time for a sensible marijuana law. Join the campaign today at http://sensiblebc.ca

Only if the government introduces something like this program. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Columbia_Resources_Investment_Corpo...

Real estate bubble is popping, so doubtful.

Nicole Foss to visit Vancouver October 18th for lecture with Lawrence Boomert

Well-known international commentator and author Nicole Foss (‘Stoneleigh’) will visit Vancouver again on Friday, October 18, 2013. She will be lecturing with Lawrence Boomert at Langara College between 7-9pm (full details here). The lecture will explore the topic: “Revitalized Communities as the Pathway to Facing Approaching Limits and Building a New Society.”

…We are approaching many limits to growth over the next several decades, and are consequently facing many challenges in our immediate future. Finance, energy, environment, resources and climate will all impact on the single-minded, one-dimensional trajectory human society has been taking in our era of growth imperative. Our current path is unsustainable. It cannot and will not continue, so we must adapt our societies in order to build a new future.

The first challenge is being presented by the on-going global financial crisis, which is far closer to its beginning than it end. Recent events in Europe, particularly in Cyprus, represent a major wake up call that financial crisis is about to resume in earnest…

In her previous visit in February of 2012, Nicole Foss said “Vancouver is approximately the largest housing bubble in the whole world.” She also explained how all bubbles eventually burst. A few snippets of her last lecture are in the video.

I'm sorry folks, but 6 foreclosures a still just a trickle.

Call me when there are more than be counted as they happen. That is what happened in countless cities in the US of 100,000... let alone multi million cities like Metro Van.

Was there a continuous or at least predominant boom in B.C. during the Socred Ascendancy(1952-1991)?

Ken, LNG in BC is not the proposed Goldboro LNG facility in Nova Scotia, which is just a promoter's dream with no LNG experience and no deep pockets.

And be careful of reading too much into a newspaper article. Hundreds of articles on the topic are released daily. As for BC's taxation regime... apparently it will be released in November. From that regime, one will be able to calculate the gov't revenue stream per million ton/annum export capacity. Figures released to date show an additional $4 - $9 billion/annum to BC gov't coffers based upon 5 LNG plants in operation. The natural gas taxation regime in Australia for LNG is VERY high (much higher than BC) and all the majors including Chevron operate LNG there.

As for the proposed BC facilities, these are most likely to materialize:

1. Shell

2. Petronas

3. Chevron

4. ExxonMobil

5. BG Group and/or CNOOC/Nexen/Inpex

BTW, Chevron purchased a 50% interest in the proposed Apache/Encana/EOG LNG facility in Kitimat (along with upstream natural gas assets) earlier this year leaving the other 50% remaining with Apache. Chevron also only took full operational control of Kitimat LNg this past July. And since then Chevron has been adding ~100 people a month to its Calgary/Vancouver/Kitimat LNG offices/operations.

The only real hurdle for Chevron is long-term LNG off-take agreements with Asian buyers and Chevron's CEO has previously stated that an equity interest in Kitimat LNG will allow a price equivalent to even lower than Henry-Hub pricing (plus) in the proposed U.S. Gulf Coast LNG projects.

And noooo Ken, I firmly believe LNG in BC is not a shell game. 

Centrist wrote:

Ken, LNG in BC is not the proposed Goldboro LNG facility in Nova Scotia, which is just a promoter's dream with no LNG experience and no deep pockets.

And be careful of reading too much into a newspaper article. Hundreds of articles on the topic are released daily.

Watch it, or I'll return the favour of acting as if you have a very thin background.

And you are ignoring what that "one article" is about: Chevron warning about royalties and other resource rents [as opposed to taxes on economic activity] being too high.

Centrist wrote:

As for BC's taxation regime... apparently it will be released in November. From that regime, one will be able to calculate the gov't revenue stream per million ton/annum export capacity. Figures released to date show an additional $4 - $9 billion/annum to BC gov't coffers based upon 5 LNG plants in operation.

I'm sure the published royalty rates will be high. As I said, we'll also have to wait for the "fine print".... like the royalties only being nominally charged for an indefinite "start-up" period, the companies allowed to "reinvest" it rather than pay the royalties.

Centrist wrote:

 

The natural gas taxation regime in Australia for LNG is VERY high (much higher than BC) and all the majors including Chevron operate LNG there.

That does not mean BC will be in the same league. Conditions are different. And the market is changing changing quickly for the 10 years plus window that matters. Timing is everything, Australia had an extreme sellers market that BC does not have and is not going to get.

Centrist wrote:

Chevron also only took full operational control of Kitimat LNg this past July. And since then Chevron has been adding ~100 people a month to its Calgary/Vancouver/Kitimat LNG offices/operations.

The only real hurdle for Chevron is long-term LNG off-take agreements with Asian buyers and Chevron's CEO has previously stated that an equity interest in Kitimat LNG will allow a price equivalent to even lower than Henry-Hub pricing (plus) in the proposed U.S. Gulf Coast LNG projects.

And noooo Ken, I firmly believe LNG in BC is not a shell game. 

You start and end as if I am talking about whether this will get off the ground. I dont doubt it will.

The bait and switch hasnt happened yet. And the shell game referrs to whether that cornucopia of royalties ever appears.

The potential bait and swictch, is that the promise is more jobs, profits and taxes that comes with any economic activity, AND a dazzling royalty bonanza. The swicth part will be when the companies say they cannot proceed with those royalty rates, so they become nominal.

That warning from Chevron is not the first, its just blunter than want I have heard when speaking to the general public.

You're forgetting the other half of the story. On the front page of the Vancouver Sun today was the first article below. This is only a small part of the growing problem as will be seen in second posted article based on the report by the Organization for Economic Co-operation in the journal Nature Climate Change. The report notes that annual global losses from flooding due to gobal warming could reach $1 trillion by 2100.

There are many other shutdowns to come. Cutting has been sped up to unsustainable long-term levels in order to harvest pine-beetle ravaged wood before it becomes economically useless. If these LNG plants go into operation they will only increase carbon dioxide levels, contributing to further global warming. Other industries, such as fishing and agriculture, are already being affected economically and many more will be negatively impacted as temperatures continue to rise.

Even if there is a boom, it will be followed by a bust as we hold onto to a dinosaur industry until the bitter end while many other economies continue to shift to solar, wind, tidal and other forms of green energy.

The second article notes that in a study of 136 of the world's largest cities, Vancouver is one of the cities most at risk from rising sea levels due to global warming. Even our right-wing, provincial government's business friendly Ministry of Forests admits that it will need to spend $9.5 billion buiding dikes to protect the city by 2100. However, we can relax because I am sure the business sector will see this spending as just another profit and job opportunity.

Quote:

 

Forestry giants Canfor and West Fraser announced Thursday they will close two Interior sawmills next year because the pine beetle epidemic has gutted their timber supply.

The closures, which also involve a swap of timber harvesting rights between the two companies, will result in 434 job losses in the communities of Quesnel and Houston. ...

Forestry giants Canfor and West Fraser announced Thursday they will close two Interior sawmills next year because the pine beetle epidemic has gutted their timber supply.

The closures, which also involve a swap of timber harvesting rights between the two companies, will result in 434 job losses in the communities of Quesnel and Houston. ...

According to the B.C. Ministry of Forests, about 710 million cubic metres of timber have been killed since the epidemic began in the late 1990s, equivalent to the amount of timber that’s normally logged in a 10-year period in B.C.

http://www.vancouversun.com/Interior+sawmills+closed+beetle+epidemic+ero...

Quote:

 

A new climate change report lists the city among the world’s most at risk for losses from rising sea levels and flooding, ranking it 11th after cities such as New York, New Orleans and Mumbai. ...

“We’re at the point where this can’t be ignored,” B.C. geoscientist John Clague told the Sunday Province. “The only good news is that there is time.” The report by the Organization for Economic Co-operation was published Tuesday in the journal Nature Climate Change.

Scientists examined 136 of the largest coastal cities in the world and concluded that, without adaptation, total annual losses from flooding could top $1 trillion by 2100.

While the report listed Vancouver among the 20 most at-risk cities in the world based on its amount of “exposed assets,” it did not make the list when defence measures were taken into account. On that list, cities in developing countries took the top spots.

But that doesn’t mean Vancouver and surrounding cities, where many of those exposed assets are located, can rest easy, said Clague, a professor at Simon Fraser University.

Local research suggests that as glaciers melt and the oceans warm, B.C. coastal waters could rise one metre over the next century.

That’s enough to overtop dikes, as extreme weather — high tides, strong winds and torrential rainfall in winter, or hot weather that melts mountain snow rapidly in spring — becomes more common due to climate change.

In December, a report released by the provincial Ministry of Forests estimated dike improvements over the next 90 to 100 years could cost $9.5 billion.

If municipalities will struggle to find money to upgrade flood protection, Stan Van Keulen doesn’t have a hope.

The longtime Surrey dairy farmer and president of the Mud Bay diking district has a small annual budget to maintain the dikes along the Serpentine and Nicomekl rivers in a 1,110-acre area crossed by Highway 99 and the Burlington Northern Railway. The tracks serve as the sea dike. ...

For example, in West Vancouver, dike construction was recommended to protect older homes near Ambleside. The report said that in Kitsilano, a small dike would be the best option to protect lower areas, while in Crescent Beach the existing dike would need to be raised by about three metres. The report indicates dike widening may cost the same amount as buying out Mud Bay landowners, but it recommends “managed retreat” instead. ...

In Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley in 2020, there will be an average of 14 more frost-free days a year, according to the BC Climate Change Adaptation Assessment. By 2050, there will be 25.

Subtle changes to the B.C. climate will have a huge impact on the agricultural industry, said the report, which was completed in 2012.

Scientists believe both temperatures and rainfall in B.C. will increase, in addition to sea levels, spring snowmelt from the mountains, and variability.

It’s that last one that causes report author Erica Crawford the most concern.

In farming, predictability is key for knowing when to plant, fertilize and harvest, she said. Extremes, such as heavy rainfall (and flooding) in spring and fall, and high heat (and droughts) in summer, can be incredibly damaging.

Pest management will also become a larger issue, with milder winters creating conditions that allow new insects to thrive.

“The past is no longer going to be a reliable guide,” said Crawford. “This will make farming more complex.”

http://www.theprovince.com/news/Climate+change+rising+water+could+become...

BC's Ministry of Environment, controlled by the fossil fuel promoting Liberal government, describes how extensive the impact of global warming has already been in the province and outlines how future economic and social problems are highly likely to grow with further carbon dioxide increases. These include losses due to flooding, storm surgers, forest fires, droughts, and heat waves, that can destroy forests, ecosystems, homes, and even bring about death.

The second article provides more evidence linking forest fires to carbon dioxide emissions, such as those that LNG plants would further increase. 

Quote:

 British Columbia’s coastal communities already face flood risks related to precipitation and river flows, and climate change will add new risks from sea-level rise and storm surges. An estimated 3,000 to 12,000 B.C. homes near the coast could be at risk of flooding by mid-century. A 2011 report from the National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy estimated that, based on existing coastal flood protection measures, climate change could lead to estimated damages of more than $2,000 per British Columbian per year by the 2050s.

Forest fires affect buildings and infrastructure. The fires of 2003 – the worst fire season on record – destroyed more than 334 homes and many businesses. The total cost of these fires is estimated at $700 million. The climatic conditions that prevailed in 2003 contributed to the size of the fires, as did the build-up of forest fuel. ...

Extreme weather events -- heat waves, heavy precipitation events, droughts – have health and safety implications. Heat waves are associated with heat stroke and an increase in respiratory illness. In the summer of 2009, during an eight-day heat wave, temperatures at Vancouver International Airport measured as high as 34.4 degrees centigrade. During this period, the Fraser and Vancouver Coastal Health Authorities registered 455 deaths (from all causes and ages), which is significantly higher than the average of 321 deaths during the equivalent calendar period in each year from 2004 to 2008. The 2003 southern B.C. fire forced the evacuation of more than 45,000 people, and led to the loss of three lives. During the 2010 fire season, smoke blanketed the province, and both the City of Vancouver and the Government of Alberta issued air quality warnings due to smoke caused by the fires. In 2010 flooding caused by heavy rainfall destroyed the highway leading into Bella Coola. About 175 people were evacuated from their communities, with residents of Kingcome Inlet evacuated by helicopter as water levels continued to rise. Such experiences, though short in duration, can result in long-term psychological impacts and personal and societal costs.

http://www.env.gov.bc.ca/cas/impacts/

Quote:

 

The number of major forest fires in B.C. will likely increase by 50 per cent or more in the next 40 years according to a recent report on climate change.

Telling the Weather Story, released this week by the Insurance Bureau of Canada, addresses altering weather patterns across the country in the coming decades and urges Canadians to adjust to the realities of climate change.

The study predicts B.C. can expect an increase in wildfires over the average of nearly 2,000 blazes a year between 2000 and 2010. Furthermore, the province will likely see a host of other weather-related issues like warmer temperatures, declining — and, in some regions, disappearing — mountain snowpacks, more intense rainfall during the winter, and drier summers. The number of wildfires sparked by lightning strikes — responsible for nearly 60 per cent of fires — is also expected to rise. ...

Dr. Gordon McBean, a climatologist and professor at the University of Western Ontario, conducted the research with cooperation from the Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction, where he also serves as policy chairman.

He explained the study arrived at the predicted figures by linking existing data on blazes caused by lightning to climate conditions. The information was then put through a simulation that projected ahead to 2030 and 2060.

“The scientific community [behind the report] is very confident,” McBean said. “These projections are based on very solid science. Climate change is already happening in Canada.”

Brian Simpson, director of the province’s Wildfire Management Branch, told The Vancouver Sun the report’s predictions are worrisome, but added that current trends already reflect the growing frequency and size of B.C.’s wildfires. In 2010, more than 331,000 hectares of land were affected by fires, the highest number in two decades. “The numbers are up across the board,” he said. “It’s disconcerting. If we get [the kind of fire activity that’s predicted] it’s going to mean more damage and a bigger impact.” ...

The Insurance Bureau of Canada’s full report on climate change can be found at

http://www.ibc.ca/en/.

 

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Climate+change+bring+more+severe+wildfi...