La Presse; Liberals maintain lead at 40 per cent, PQ rebounds

Mon, 2013-12-09 22:17

Unionist

The Liberals have won both byelections, in Outremont and Viau, as expected.

Liberal leader Philippe Couillard won Outremont with 55%. Second was Québec solidaire's Edith Laperle with 32%. Note that the PQ and CAQ did not run candidates.

In Viau (corresponding roughly to federal Bourassa, Liberal territory), Liberal David Heurtel got almost 60%. Second was PQ's Tania Longpré with 15%, and then QS's Geneviève Fortier-Moreau with 13%. CAQ actually came 5th with about 3% of the vote. It looks good on them.

Bravo QS for excellent campaigns and gains!

Mon, 2013-12-09 22:33

#53

DaveW

graphic in polls below shows the same 2-3 seat range:

http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2013/12/7-decembre-2013-sondage-leger-avec-le.html

Liberals way ahead:

Les médias continueront probablement de parler de gouvernement Libéral minoritaire. Mais dans les faits, avec une avance de 5 points, le PLQ pourrait tout-à-fait espérer une majorité. Ce n'est pas le scénario le plus probable, mais ce n'est pas non plus aussi improbable que certains chroniqueurs/analystes voudraient vous le laisser croire. Spécifiquement, les chances d'une majorité Libérale sont de 37%. Ou, conditionnellement à une victoire du PLQ, elles sont de 57%.

Wed, 2013-12-11 09:29

#54

DaveW

CROP: PQ up up up;

obvious conclusion: between Leger (above) and CROP, somebody is way wrong:

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-quebecoise/201312/10/01-4719761-pauline-marois-termine-lannee-en-lion.php

Dans son enquête menée auprès de 1000 internautes du 4 au 9 décembre derniers, CROP observe une forte montée de la satisfaction à l'endroit du gouvernement Marois. Une hausse étonnante de neuf points en un mois, de 32 à 41%, chez les gens qui se disent désormais «satisfaits» de la gouvernance à Québec. Inversement, les mécontents passent subitement de 63 à 55%. Problème d'échantillon? Le vice-président de CROP, Youri Rivest, n'en croit rien; les résultats obtenus vont dans le même sens, quelles que soient les questions abordées.

Wed, 2013-12-11 10:11

#55

WyldRage

Between 37-32 and 35-35? That's not "way wrong", it's within a margin of error of 3%.

Wed, 2013-12-11 12:51

#56

DaveW

In CROP poll, both approval ratings for Marois and satisfaction with Govt way up,

And CROP poll stats suggest PQ majority possible;

absolutely not the case with Leger poll of last Saturday, 80 percent of whose scenarios were Liberal win and even majority foreseen

Wed, 2013-12-11 14:09

#57

WyldRage

Well, the poll was done when the PQ announced it was working with the CAQ to pass a new Mining law, which was passed on Monday by all parties except QS (who have still said it was a step in the right direction). Québeckers love it when the parties talk with each other and work together, so that event could explain the boost in approval rating.

Wed, 2013-12-11 17:48

#58

DaveW

toss of the coin, says 308 site:

http://www.threehundredeight.com/p/quebec.html

with more analysis:

http://www.lactualite.com/actualites/politique/elections-provinciales-un-pari-risque-pour-marois-et-couillard/

La Presse; Liberals maintain lead at 40 per cent, PQ rebounds

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