Okay, so Probe Research shows that the PCs (43% of popular support) are up on the NDP (29% popular support) by 14 percentage points in the popular vote.
Manitoba Party Standings Stabilize
Other polls determined that Manitobans hate the PST hike.
Manitobans say poor fiscal management at root of PST hike
Yet the Dippers & PCs are statistically tied in Winnipeg (for popular support) and the PCs only have a 10 percentage point advantage over the Dippers in southwest Winnipeg.
I find this amazing. I mean, isn't the southwest suppose to be the urban base of the Tories? I mean, without rock solid NDP support I suspected it'd be one of the first areas to fold for the party.
Are there some demographic shifts I'm not taking into account?