Does a PQ win mean a referendum on sovereignty?

57 posts / 0 new

Tue, 2014-03-11 11:55

DaveW

I repeat : the PKP recruitment is probably disastrous for the PQ:

it has opened old wounds, damaged its urban base, frightened moderate "values" voters, and made the French media that is not in Peladeau's orbit -- La Presse, Le Devoir, RadCan -- hyper-aware of any pro-PQ bias, a novelty in the Mtl media

of course, PKP is also poison for much of the QC intelligentsia, which is crucial in French and Latin political societies generally; Sarkozy used to say he could govern without support from the intellectuals, but not against them. That would complicate everything. Marois has steered her party away from that natural alliance.

I think QC Liberals will now get a bare minority Govt., given the recentring this move makes

Just my opinion. And I never said optimistic, just realistic analysis.

Tue, 2014-03-11 12:19

#53

Unionist

[sorry - this should have gone in the other thread... Why do we need this thread anyway?]

Thu, 2014-03-13 17:07

#54

John Q G.C.I.U. John Q G.C.I.U.'s picture

Matthieu wrote:

If Mulcair wants to play Captain Canada, be ready to see the NDP wiped off the map in Québec. Remember, there's a very large proportion of sovereignists voters who voted for the NDP, while the federalists stayed with the Liberals.

Not to mention that there are several elected members of the NDP that are sovereignists as well: they took anyone they could find and the left wing in Québec is massively sovereignist (just like the right wing is federalist). If there is a referendum (which there won't be as long as Marois is the leader of the PQ, she just doesn't have the charisma) and the NDP tries to look like the liberals, the party risks breaking apart.

Trudeau will be Captain Canada, if only for his name and his hair.

Don't rule out Mulcai and the NDP. Since Pierre Karl Peladeau, it’s been amusing to watch sovereignists defending the conservative union lockout king’s candidacy for the formerly left-of-center, pro-labour PQ.

Sun, 2014-03-16 01:46

#55

Policywonk

DaveW wrote:

I repeat : the PKP recruitment is probably disastrous for the PQ:

it has opened old wounds, damaged its urban base, frightened moderate "values" voters, and made the French media that is not in Peladeau's orbit -- La Presse, Le Devoir, RadCan -- hyper-aware of any pro-PQ bias, a novelty in the Mtl media

of course, PKP is also poison for much of the QC intelligentsia, which is crucial in French and Latin political societies generally; Sarkozy used to say he could govern without support from the intellectuals, but not against them. That would complicate everything. Marois has steered her party away from that natural alliance.

I think QC Liberals will now get a bare minority Govt., given the recentring this move makes

Just my opinion. And I never said optimistic, just realistic analysis.

The more seats CAQ loses, the less likely there will be a minority, as I can't see QS winning more than a couple seats more than they have already, and I have no idea where that could be. Given the polling numbers CAQ will lose most of their seats, and even if, as it appears, their vote is going to the Liberals, the Liberals still have to overcome the PQ advantage amongst Francophones. I think the PKP candidacy was a mistake for the PQ as well, and perhaps CAQ will slide further, but the PQ still has the advantage if the overall polls are tied.

Sun, 2014-03-16 14:47

#56

DaveW

Yes, but all French op-eds this weekend say too close to call, anything can happen now that CAQ sinking

But I agree with Unionist above, this thread is redundant, all my future post at QC polls thread

Mon, 2014-03-17 15:00

#57

Brachina

When I started this thread it was in the Politics section because I had intended for it to be about the Federal implications of a PQ wina dn referundum not as a thread to anaylsising the Quebec election itself, but rereading my first post I realize I did not make that clear so I take full responsiblity for that.

Does a PQ win mean a referendum on sovereignty?

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