.

It's possible; stranger things have happened.  And I seem to recall that the polling showed the Manitoba NDP down (but not out) for most of the time leading up to the 2011 election.

But this is really bad for them.

I'm starting to wonder if the NDP is trying to lose this next election.

The PST increase was just plain stupid.  If they needed to raise revenue, there are better (more progressive) and less unpopular ways to do it than increasing the PST.  There's also been talk of raising MPI rates as of late, which is only going to make them less popular.

That's the other thing I find funny. There's a lot of progressive policies that the NDP could adopt, but shied away from.  Things like anti-scab legislation, universal post-secondary education, etc.  I often get told that these policies are too unpopular, and if the NDP were to adopt them, they would be defeated in 2015 (despite the fact that lowering tuition fees has a lot of public support).

But regressive taxation... that's going to be their hill to die on.

The "infidel atheists" remark was a total non-issue and will be forgotten by all but a handful of people come election time.  Maybe Pallister will screw up hard enough to hand the NDP a victory, but I doubt it.  He's an experienced politician, and probably astute enough to avoid too many major gaffes.  Still, you never know with the incompetence of the Manitoba PCs.

On the other hand, the NDP brass must be completely out to lunch if they thought that the PST increase would be well-received.  The "We smoked them out" comments from Liam Martin regarding the PST have to be one of the most tone-deaf things I've heard in Manitoba politics in a long time.

But the thing that really gets my goat about the PST increase is that for years, progressives and lefties have been told by NDP types that, hey, we agree with you, but you need to be patient and not press issues like 50%+1 card check, anti-scab legislation, lower tuition fees, raising welfare rates, etc. because they don't have enough public support, and if we press the issue, the Winnipeg Sun will have a field day and we'll only be playing into the hands of the barbarians at the gates.  And anyone who thinks the NDP should do any of these progressive things is actually hurting any progressive agenda because calling on the NDP to do any of those things is the sort of overreaching that will cause a backlash that will doom the NDP in the next election, and ensuring the election of a government that will reverse any little good thing the NDP has ever done and more.

Then, the NDP decides to press on ahead with their bold progressive ideas of... raising the PST, one of the more regressive, visible, and unpopular taxes there is?  Though I must admit, the PC's complaint that hard-working Manitoba families will have to pay $200 more on a $20,000 boat is not exactly helping their case a whole lot, raising the PST is one of the least progressive and least popular ways to raise revenue there is.  I get that governments need revenue to provide public services, but there are better ways to raise that revenue than with sales taxes.

But, not a far-reaching social program like Mincome or universal PSE, not some vast improvement in labour rights like anti-scab, they chose regressive sales taxes as their hill to die on.

Let me illustrate with an example.  The Saskatchewan CCF, battered and bloodied, may have lost the 1964 election, but they brought in universal healthcare.  The Manitoba NDP is going to lose the 2015 election over a 1% PST increase.  Huh?  Is this what passes for a vision for a better society in Today's NDP?

genstrike wrote:

The "infidel atheists" remark was a total non-issue and will be forgotten by all but a handful of people come election time.  Maybe Pallister will screw up hard enough to hand the NDP a victory, but I doubt it.  He's an experienced politician, and probably astute enough to avoid too many major gaffes.  Still, you never know with the incompetence of the Manitoba PCs.

I'm very curious if Liberals will manage to slide up the middle in some ridings, given an increasingly depised (and very long term) NDP and a gaffe-tastic, old guard politician with reactionary social views leads the Official Opposition. Rana Bokhari is a fresh face for the Manitoba Liberals, which don't have the baggage or negative image (now that Gerrard is out of the spotlight and Lamoreaux is in Ottaw). A very vapid, "feel good" positive campaign really could work if the Pallister CONs and NDP keep up with the heavy barbs and gaffes in the Legislature.

I imagine, for instance, that some south-central and inner suburban ridings could go to the Libs.

Aristotleded24 wrote:

genstrike wrote:

The "infidel atheists" remark was a total non-issue and will be forgotten by all but a handful of people come election time.  Maybe Pallister will screw up hard enough to hand the NDP a victory, but I doubt it.  He's an experienced politician, and probably astute enough to avoid too many major gaffes.  Still, you never know with the incompetence of the Manitoba PCs.

I didn't bring up the "infidel atheists" remark as something in and of itself that would hurt Pallister, moreso that I think that episode reflects quite poorly on his judgement overall.

Yeah, individual boneheaded remarks about a "fickle" "woman's answer", those "infidel atheists", or dangerous "social experiments" by themselves don't drown you. Making them again and again do, however.

genstrike wrote:

The Analyst wrote:

Rana Bokhari is a fresh face for the Manitoba Liberals, which don't have the baggage or negative image (now that Gerrard is out of the spotlight and Lamoreaux is in Ottaw).

Rana who?  She may be a fresh face, but she's not very well known and doesn't seem to be getting in the media that much.

As for baggage and negative image, I'm not familiar with any serious baggage that Gerrard is carrying.  He's a bit of a sad and lonely figure, but he seems to be fairly well-respected and he didn't fire nurses, privatize MTS, or raise the PST.

Part of the problem rests with the fact that Gerrard is not only sticking around to serve out his term, but he's announced intentions to run again, so he still is the de facto Liberal leader in Manitoba. It's only natural that Gerrard would be primarily asked questions and have profile in this situation. I would think that the loyal thing to do for his party would be to step aside, walk with Rana through the streets of Riverheights and get her elected. That way, she can cement herself as a presence in the Ledge, she is on much more solid ground to go out and build up the Liberal party brand elsewhere, and then not only are she and Gerrard well-positioned to be in the Ledge after the next vote, but they have a good chance of bringing many more MLAs with them.

genstrike wrote:

He's a bit of a sad and lonely figure, but he seems to be fairly well-respected and he didn't fire nurses, privatize MTS, or raise the PST.

He didn't get the chance to.

I still say some of the Manitoba Liberals would be better off in civic politics. I remember both Gerrard and Paul Hesse offering some great ideas and visions for Winnipeg in the last couple of elections.

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Yeah, and the problem with the "spending announcements" is that the NDP is reminding voters that they broke their promise not to raise taxes.

What I don`t get is why the Manitoba NDP raised the PST - a consumption tax affecting all consumers. Why didn`t the Manitoba NDP just raise corporate taxes instead? Wouldn`t have been the same political backlash -  if any at all.

Besides - the Manitoba corporate tax rate is effectively the same as the right-wing BC Lib`s low corporate tax rate with a lot of maneuvering room for upward movement (considering that the same Manitoba NDP consistently lowered same to BC`s level over the past decade). Heck, even the BC NDP acknowledges the need to raise BC`s low corporate tax rate to increase revenues.