A new Forum Research poll has Tim Hudak’s PCs at 38 per cent, Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals at 33, Andrea Horwath’s New Democrats at 22
While the Progressive Conservatives lead in the Forum Research survey, the Liberals are poised to form another minority government due to the efficiency of their vote.
“The Tories need to get over 40 per cent for a lot of seats to fall their way,” he said. “It appears the Tories could pick up a few Liberal seats, but the Liberals are going to pick up a few urban New Democrats’ seats.”
The pollster said he was “really surprised at the hit that Andrea Horwath has taken in personal approval.”
Horwath came in at 36 per cent in the new poll, compared to 34 per cent for Wynne and 26 per cent for Hudak. However, in last month’s Forum poll, she was at 40 per cent. (Wynne was at 34 per cent and Hudak at 27 per cent.)
http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2014/05/04/ontario_poll_tories_le...
However Forum is the same research pollsters that said Wildrose would sweep AB and the NDP would do the same in BC, Neither happened and their interactive voice response polling has been subject to both scrutiny and criticism.
PC 38% - LIB 33% - NDP 22% = PC 45 - LIB 49 - NDP 13 seats each? It seems the PC and NDP vote has gotten a lot less efficient since 2011.
I'm not one for conspiracies, but this poll - along with a lot of Forum's work - stinks. The wording of their polling questions on unions and public service contracting-out were misleading, confusing, and inconsistent; their polling in the federal Manitoba byelections was crazy (many people were called multiple times for one poll), and the seat projections from these polling figures seem way out of wack. Either Forum is incompetent or they favour the Liberals. Probably a bit of both.