Ontario polling thread (April 18, 2012)

Brachina wrote:

Rebecca West wrote:

Rokossovsky wrote:

Rebecca West wrote:

Oh, and Rokossovsky, I'm getting complaints about you baiting and insulting participants. Please be more respectful.

Did they cite any examples? It would be nice to know what specifically it is that I did that upset someone, if its going to be aired publicly.

But what is good for the goose is good for the gander no? So, here, I was accused of being a McCarthyte:

Unionist wrote:

Rokossovsky is also very good at making clear and explicit ONDP promises and positions that the ONDP itself is vague and ambiguous about (corporate taxes, nationalization vs. just not more privatization of Hydro, etc.). This shows clear thinking and certainly no hint of a spirit of McCarthyism aimed at uncovering covert Liberal shills.

Having "no principles". Ok, not exactly said explicitly, but a clearly implied ad hominem, here:

unionist wrote:

Here's a novel idea: If a party's policies go against your fundamental principles, then criticize them, try to change them, make sure they never achieve power... But that presupposes something. That you have some fundamental principles.

Had my sanity questioned, here.

Josh wrote:

Have to laugh at the party hacks on here attacking Salutin as a "wacko" and a Liberal when he's far more sane and left than either of them.

Oh, and a "party hack" is also ad hominem, and funny because I ain't in the NDP... but that is another story. True I did say Salutin was "nutso", but then he's a public figure, and not engaged here, at least that I know.

And then also accused of lying, here by onlinediscountanvils.  This point which I rebutted here: I made a deduction based on his statements, which I quoted. In this case the accussation of how I "lied" was not demonstrated when I asked.

So, it kind of seems to me that it works like this. Pick a fight with someone, insult them, call them an "insane party hack, with no principles, who lies", then report them to the moderator, if they get in your face.

Hard to know where this stuff begins and ends, but really, it seems strange to be singled out for censure.

As for anonymous reports to the moderators about my behaviour, I have also received messages of support from several people, one who in fact said they don't post here anymore because of the trolling of some indiviuals. In the main I have stuck with the issues of policy on topic, despite a lot of peronalized heckling, which pretty much seems par for the course on this site.

I am not one to run to the moderators if people are going to lay in with personal attacks but if it is going to become a public issue, then I would appreciate it if examples of my unjustifiable negative behaviour were used, since obviously as above, it is hardly a one way street.

Moreover, I don't think this warning is warranted given the tenor of the discussion, especially when "straight forward" statements are pretty much the norm. I don't mind toning it down, but I don't think I should be singled out.

And while I am at it. Is this ok?

Unionist wrote:

Horwath and Wynne are liberals. Wynne admits it. There's a substantive difference.

But there is certainly one other substantive difference between Horwath and Wynne. Wynne is lesbian, and out. She doesn't do high-heel ads. If it came down to it, I'd vote for Wynne for that reason alone.

Reducing the discussion of policy differences between Horwath and Wynne to their sexuality, and clothing they choose to wear seems pretty dismissive of both, really. Curious about that.

 

You are being called on your disrespectful behavior. This is not about the behavior of others and your playing victim is, frankly, embarrassing. Numerous examples have been cited. Please stop wasting my limited moderating time.

 

 This seems like a double standard.

You have a point, but there are not enough hours in the day to respond to each and every instance of snark. People seem to think that certain babblers get a free pass, but they forget the epic battles and suspensions CF and I have had to dole out. We mods remember because they are such difficult decisions.

nicky wrote:

Sid Ryan has tweeted about an EKOS poll that has the NDP ahead in Oshawa NDP poised to win Oshawa according to EKOS poll taken this past weekend. NDP 29 Libs. 23 PC. 20 #onpoli #oflabour #ondp #

23% second place for the Grits in Oshawa just doesn't ring true.  Just sayin'.

Why? this is normal.

Oshawa is old NDP turf. It was Ed Broadbent's riding for years and it has flipped PC and NDP historicall, and the NDP usually run second, if not first. The Liberals have only won Oshawa federally. briefly during Chretien era.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oshawa_%28provincial_electoral_district%29

What are you getting at adma?

Oshawa

Party / 2011 GE / EKOS Poll today / Change

NDP - 36% / 29% / Down 7%

Libs - 17% / 23% / Up 6%

PCs  / 42% / 20% / Down 22%

By-the-way, has Hudak got the Tim Horton vote sewed up?  

adma wrote:

nicky wrote:

Sid Ryan has tweeted about an EKOS poll that has the NDP ahead in Oshawa NDP poised to win Oshawa according to EKOS poll taken this past weekend. NDP 29 Libs. 23 PC. 20 #onpoli #oflabour #ondp #

23% second place for the Grits in Oshawa just doesn't ring true.  Just sayin'.

I apologize if this one has already been posted, but it wasn't clear that it had been.

New Poll Gives Tories a Six-Point Lead Over Grits

Quote:

PC Leader Tim Hudak has taken an early lead in the race to become premier, according to a new CP24/CTV Ipsos Reid poll.

The online poll of 821 Ontarians has found that Hudak’s Progessive Conservative party has the support of 37 per cent of respondents compared to 31 per cent for Kathleen Wynne’s Liberal party, 28 per cent for Andrea Horwath’s New Democrats and four per cent for Mike Schreiner’s Green Party.

This poll was conducted between May 6-8, so it's prior to Hudak's announcement about killing 100,000 jobs. I'm still hopeful that Hudak nuked his chances with that one, but how likely is it that soft Tory support will veer over to the NDP?

Quote:

The poll also gives the PC party an advantage in terms of the degree of certainty its supporters posses with 52 per cent of those who intend to vote Tory saying they are “absolutely certain” of their intention compared with 37 per cent for the Liberals and 34 per cent for the NDP.

Read more: http://www.cp24.com/news/2014-ontario-provincial-election/new-poll-gives-tories-a-six-point-lead-over-grits-1.1814985#ixzz31PImx6M8

I am waiting with bated breath for next week's poll.

nicky wrote:

Sid Ryan has tweeted about an EKOS poll that has the NDP ahead in Oshawa NDP poised to win Oshawa according to EKOS poll taken this past weekend. NDP 29 Libs. 23 PC. 20 #onpoli #oflabour #ondp # This follows two riding level polls by Oracle which have the NDP gaining Sudbury and coming close in the Sault. A few months ago I posted some thoughts on the by-election trends. Generally the Cons were treading water and the NDP gaining considerably from the Liberals in those seaTs in which it was competitive. In seats where the NDP was out of the running the liberal vote held up relatively well against the Cons. I wonder if this pattern will repeat in the general election. If so it would be bad news for the Cons. Does anyone have a link to the Oshawa poll? I can't find one outside Twitter

Does anyone know who is running for the NDP? On Wikipedia it says Ryan Kelly is running in Whitby-Oshawa but no name in Oshawa.

Seat projection by Global News (based on some recent polls -- link)

I remember a while back checking into this institution and it is not what I would call NDP-friendly to say the least.

"Barry Kay is a professor at Wilfrid Laurier University and a part of the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy"

http://globalnews.ca/news/1314518/ontario-seat-projection-shows-modest-s...

oops again, multiple post.

NorthReport wrote:

I remember a while back checking into this institution and it is not what I would call NDP-friendly to say the least.

"Barry Kay is a professor at Wilfrid Laurier University and a part of the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy"

http://globalnews.ca/news/1314518/ontario-seat-projection-shows-modest-s...

What did you find out about Wilfrid Laurier University and the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy?

Anyone who would include Innovative Research to create stats - well nough said. 

As I said it was a while back, and I learned enough to, let's put it this way - stay away.

This is the very dirty game of poliitics, where very frequently things are not what they appear to be on the surface.

Be particularly careful about innoculous sounding names such as Sir Wilfred Laurier U*, the Fraser Institute, etc.

But you're a big boy, I'll let you do your own research. 

* Unsure about the whole insitution, as it was the political science area that gave me cause for concern. 

---------

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Check my asterik above, and start doing some serious research.

Tell me JKR, would you include polls in a seat projection if a pollster were directly connected to a political party - like a political party operative?

Please take off your rose-coloured glasses.

There can be no conclusive evidence one way or the other that an individual pollster is rigging their polls for one party or another.  However, I agree with North Report that anyone who thinks that they do not is wearing "rose-coloured glasses." 

The only time that pollsters really need to worry about their reputations is near the end of election periods where their poll numbers can be compared to the actual results. 

I have been impressed with the way NANOS, in particular, can skew their polls until their last poll of a campaign and then all of sudden have their polls agree with the final result.  I have no doubt that Nanos knows how to conduct a reliable poll.  Whether they choose to do so early on in campaigns, I am not so confident.

mark_alfred wrote:

Seat projection by Global News (based on some recent polls -- link)

The polls comprising this projection only go up to May 3rd. I'm still hopeful that Hudak's announcement of a 100,000 job-killing plan was enough of a bombshell that his support will have slid.

My highly unscientific projection: status quo. Another Liberal minority.

N-54

Very well said.

You are describing what polling guru Nate Silver calls "herding".

Silver, of NYTimes fame, a polling aggregator, operates the website www.fivethirteight.com, and Silver has devised some ways to overcome poll manipulation very close to the actual election date.

Look at the gas plants scandal? 

Why did Chretien resign?

Why did Charest resign?

Why did McGuinty resign?

It goes on and on and on.

How often have we seen dirty tricks in politics?

Lokk at all the scandals we are aware of.

And imagine all the ones that have never seen the light of day.

Just here at rabble how often have we heard "I used to be NDP but now I'm a Liberal" or "I'm an NDPer" and then they trash the NDP.

We disagree on occasion, but I am not including Unionist in that mix.

So if there is huge corruption in politics there is corruption in polling as well. as polling and politics are connected at the hip.

Do you believe everything you read in newspapers - of course not.

Then why would you necessarily believe pollsters?

Are there honest pollsters? Of course.

Are there dishonest pollsters?  Let's just say if I were a betting person I would go to Vegas and put my money on it. 

And the cry goes out  - sour grapes, as people don't like the results.

Yes that indeed does happen on occasion, but the reasons here are different

When you have only a few polls, and one political party is connected to several of the pollsters, you have to be politically brain dead to not suspect something is up.

Take a look at the press. 99% of the articles are trashing Andrea. Yet the most recent poll released, by a reasonably reliable pollster, Ipsos Reid, who is certainly not an NDP pollster, shows the NDP polling within 3% of the Liberals. Why the huge disconnect between that kind of support for the NDP and the mainstream press? Because it is propaganda, that's why. Some media are connected to and support certain political parties. And some pollsster are no different.

So all I am saying is please stop with the naivety.

Nate Silver, who analyses polls in the politically corrupt USA has done extensive research. Read some of his stuff and you get a glimpse into the very, dirty world of polling.

And by-the-way, when most of the press and many pollsters were predicting a close race between Obama & Romney,  Nate Silver called BS to it, and he was dead on that it was not even close. It is definitely woth reading up on polling manipulation, and there are some previous threads here about it. When we get closer to voting day we can discuss in more detail, what N-54 has descrived, and what Nate Silver mentioned above calls "herding"    

Northern-54 wrote:

There can be no conclusive evidence one way or the other that an individual pollster is rigging their polls for one party or another.  However, I agree with North Report that anyone who thinks that they do not is wearing "rose-coloured glasses." 

 

The only time that pollsters really need to worry about their reputations is near the end of election periods where their poll numbers can be compared to the actual results. 

 

I have been impressed with the way NANOS, in particular, can skew their polls until their last poll of a campaign and then all of sudden have their polls agree with the final result.  I have no doubt that Nanos knows how to conduct a reliable poll.  Whether they choose to do so early on in campaigns, I am not so confident.

--

14,140

josh wrote:

308 is now showing a conservative majority. Hard to believe that the Ipsos poll would have moved that many seats.

http://www.threehundredeight.com/2014/05/ontario-polls-continue-to-confu...

I know! Boo! Hudak!

That is precisely how I interpreted the statement there that said: "The Liberals have moved ahead in the seat count again, with 46 seats to 40 for the PCs."

That has "Tory majority" written all over it for sure.

Often there is a simple way to ascertain what a pollster is all about. 

Find out who the respective pollster is connected to?

Who is Nanos connected to - presently it's Bell Media which includes CTV and the Globe and Mail. Isn't that correct?

Who writes his pay cheques?

Are you going to bite the hand that feeds you - perhaps. And perhaps not.

Just start asking yourself some of these questions.

in other words do some critical thinking about what is unfortunately the dirty game of politics.

Look at the current nanos research website - www.nanosresearch.com

The NDP are 2nd in the stats, but in 3rd place ion the list.

Accidential. From a professional communicator. Perhaps. Perhaps not.

Nanos Canadian Party Brand Index

PARTY POWER INDEX

Canada Trendline [PDF]

Liberal 55.9+0.9

Conservative 50.4-0.3

NDP 50.5+1.9

Green34.5+0.7

BQ28.5-0.3

(Change b/w April 25 - May 02/14) 

I doubt that will manifest, but what is most intersting to that analysis of those figures is the discussion of turnout.

"Turnout could be an election-winning factor in the upcoming election, particularly if it is as anemic as it was in 2011. The Tories appear to have a crushing advantage in this regard. Among all Ontarians aged 55 or older (the cohort most likely to tramp out to the polls), the PC lead expanded to 51% against 24% for the Liberals and 23% for the NDP. That is enormous."

Precisely the problem with "hold your nose and vote" strategic voting campaigns is they produce very uninspired canvassers, campaign workers and little performance from voters themselves, who are more likely to stay home despite "preference".

Motivation and organization is key, as we saw in Brandon-Souris, where the Liberals failed to capitalize on a massive lead in voter preference and win the by-election, or in the Toronto 2010 mayors race where the polls were showing a dead heat between Smitherman and Ford, but voter commitment on polling day produced a 10% lead for Ford on E-day.

Liberal voters should get off the pot and move NDP in order capture momentum, because they are the only party that is not Hudak that has real potential to build momentum.

Seat Projections

Party / Today / GE '11 / Change / % Change

NDP / 24 / 17 / Up 7 / Up 33%

PCs / 55 / 37 / Up 18 / Up 49%

Libs / 28 / 53 / Down 25 / Down 47%

54 seats needed for majority

It's early in the game but it looks like we are getting close to the tipping point where the NDP surpass the Liberals.

NDP looking strong. Liberals not so much.

The NDP should be able to pick up more seats and come in second at least.

But will the Liberals be able to handle that and support the NDP to keep Hudak out?

I doubt it.

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14,460

NorthReport wrote:

But will the Liberals be able to handle that and support the NDP to keep Hudak out?

I doubt it.

Nowadays they even poll Twitter comments. 

Quote:

 

Today CP24/CTV released an IPSOS survey of how Twitter is being used in the election campaign. The survey of week one, May 2 – 9, first tallied the number of mentions each party got on Twitter. The Liberals (39 per cent) and Tories (38 per cent) are in a virtual tie with the NDP trailing at 23 percent. IPSOS found the conversation on Twitter changed through the week and it seems to have followed the headlines. The tweets the first couple of days were all about why the election was called then things quieted down before revving up with the Tory job promises. I’m not sure what it all means – I wonder if the Twitter universe on Ontario politics is really a couple thousand very engaged Twitter fans talking to each other. But Mike Colledge at IPSOS says it is difficult to make any assumptions about what all this Twitter chatter will mean on election day. He goes on to note, “One thing is for sure – with 37 per cent of Ontarians talking politics and policy online there is a discussion taking place that the political parties may want to listen to.”

If you want to get a flavour of the Twitter conversation that is taking place, a couple of hashtags that will keep you busy are #onvotes and #onpoli. What I notice is that everyone is pumping their own agendas and that includes the media tweeting out the latest bits of news for you to watch and read. IPSOS will review the Twitter universe every week for CP24 during the campaign. It will be interesting to see how the mood changes as the election approaches.

http://www.cp24.com/news/2014-ontario-provincial-election/notes-from-the...

Kathleen Wynne's Liberals now lead with 38 per cent support to 33 per cent for the Conservatives, 21 per cent for Andrea Horwath's New Democrats and 5 per cent for Mike Schreiner's Greens. In the May 2 Forum poll, the Tories were at 38 per cent, the Liberals 33 per cent, the NDP 22 per cent and the Greens at 6 per cent. Using interactive voice-response phone calls, Forum surveyed 996 people across Ontario on Monday and the results are considered accurate to within three percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Extrapolating the polling results suggests the Liberals would secure 68 seats in the 107-member legislature, the Conservatives 26, and the NDP 13, said Bozinoff.

http://www.bramptonguardian.com/news-story/4517677-hudak-s-popularity-ta...

Updated

NorthReport wrote:

Who is missing from the mix?

Pollsters, Aggregators, Media and who they are connected with past or present or who they support

Pollsters

Angus Reid / Vision Critical - Independent

COMPAS - PCs

CROP - Independent

EKOS - Liberal

Environics - Independent

Forum - Liberal

Harris Decima - PCs

Innovative - Liberal

Ipsos Reid - uusually leans a bit right

Leger Marketing - Independent

Nanos - right wing Lib or PC, doesn't matter which

Oracle - PCs

 

Aggregators

308 - right-wing either Lib or PC, doesn't matter which

Election Almanac - Independent

Election Prediction Project - Liberal

 

Media

CBC - Liberal you think.

CTV - right-wing either Lib or PC doesn't matter which

Globe and Mail - right-wing either Lib or PC doesn't matter which

Huffington Post - Liberal

IPolitics - Liberal

National Nreswatch - Liberal

National Post - right wing PCs

Postmedia - right wing either Lib or Pcs, doesn't matter which

Toronto Star - Liberal you think.

Sun Media - right-wing PCs

Updated

NorthReport wrote:

 

Another pollster missing from the previous mix, with a good track record is Environics. Although not current, I have added of what appears to be their most recent eye opener Ontario polls.

Does anyone know if, and when, Environics will be releasing a poll before Jun 12th, the date of the election.

The stakes are large and there is some very misleading information resulting from the current Ontario polling including aggregate pollsters as garbage in = garbage out. Nate Silver formerly at the NYTimes and  currently at www.fivethirtyeight.com would have a blast dismantling some of the nonsensical polling here. 

Interesting that EKOS & Forum were first out of the gate when the Legislature was being dissolved. EKOS one day before, and Forum one day after, which is additional confirmation that the Liberal's plan was to pull the plug all along. I'm surprised Liberals don't win all the Academy Awards for their acting abilities.  

My hunch is Ipsos Reid is probably quite close to representing where the Ontario voters  are presently at. 

Date / Pollster / PCs / Libs / NDP / Connections

2011 / GE / 35% / 38% / 23%

May 13 / Forum / 33% / 38% / 21% / Liberal / Bozinoff / Disregard

May 8 / Ipsos Reid / 35% / 31% / 28% / Neutral  / Bricker / Reliable

May 6 / Innov / 33% / 39% / 20% / Liberal  / Lyle / Disregard

May 5 / Oracle / 42% / 31% / 25% /  PCs / 

May 3 / Forum / 38% / 33% / 22% /   / Liberal / Bozinoff / Disregard

May 2 / Legislature Dissolved

May 1 / EKOS / 35% / 38% / 23% / Liberal / Graves  / Disregard

Apr / Oracle / 34% / 35% / 24% / PCs / 

Apr / Ipsos Reid / 37% / 32% / 27% / Neutral / Bricker / Reliable

Apr / Nanos / 36% / 36% / 22% /  / Right-Wing / Nanos / 

Apr / EKOS / 27% / 32% / 29% / Liberal / Graves / Disregard

----------------------------

Jun '12 / Environics / 37% / 25% / 28%

Apr '12 / Environics / 37% / 27% / 30%

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Liberals were probaly lined up around the block to vote in that Forum poll. 

Remember in polling garbage in = garbage out.

The little tricks of the right-wing or the biases of the so-called pollsters, or whatever.

When Ipsos Reid a relaible pollster released their poll last week showing the ONDP within 3% of the Liberals it took 308 several days before pontificating on it.

When the NDP were second in a Nanos poll Nanos had them listed third as well last week.

Buyer and or voter beware!