Vancouver Municipal Election: Saturday, November 15, 2014

Well Armstrong's group was dealt a pretty severe blow at the AGM, by all accounts (he is no longer President). Whether this will allow the NPA to re-gain some of its traditional strength remains to be seen.

The 2014 election is going to be interesting. The last couple of elections have pretty much been straight up-and-down Vision vs. NPA battles, with Vision coming out way ahead in both tilts. COPE has withered away to pretty much nothing (and has been riven by internal bickering) but they are proposing to run a full slate of candidates next time around (including a candidate for mayor) which could cut into the Vision vote. TEAM Vancouver has been resurrected as a sort of populist, reformist, centrist party (refusing to take union or corporate donations) and could draw from both the NPA and Vision camps (interesting sidebar: Mike Harcourt started his political career as a TEAM councillor). Lastly, the Greens could be a more siginficant factor next time around, now that they have managed to win a council seat and have representation at the provincial and federal levels. 

Really? He expressly denied any interest in running a few weeks ago. Not to mention that the job is not vacant - if there is going to be a leadership race, Dix will have to either be forced out by caucus a la Carole James, or at a leadership review. Not sure it would be very good for the party to have another round of regicide - I sense the bad blood from l'affaire James never really entirely went away. Nor would Robertson want to be perceived as the one wielding the knife, unless he can get someone to challenge Dix as a stalking horse.

Even if he were to seek the leadership, personally I'd be a bit ambivalent. He has shown himself to be a bit of a political chameleon with a fondness for top-down leadership, not the sort of bottom-up, grassroots engagement that the BC NDP needs. The last thing the party needs is a perpetuation of the current 'inner circle' approach to party affairs - having one cabal replaced with another. While on the one hand he has business credentials that could help undercut the "the NDP can't be trusted with the economy" narrative, on the other hand I have a feeling that he might have trouble shaking the "Mayor Moonbeam" label among voters outside Vancouver.

..that's not what i'm hearing. not by a long shot.

COPE lost its last elected representative this weekend. School board trustee Allan Wong has crossed the floor to join Vision.

And now Brent Granby, former COPE candidate and longtime member, has announced he's joined Vision as well.

Seems to me another Vision victory is a no-brainer simply because none of the opposition is likely to be in a strong enough position at this point. However it could be a realigning election for opposition parties.

Quote:

The number of people sleeping on Vancouver’s streets soared over the past 12 months while homelessness remained fairly stable across the rest of Metro Vancouver.

Almost twice as many people – 538 compared to 273 in 2013 – had no shelter in Vancouver on March 12, the day of the 2014 Metro Vancouver homeless count. ...

Volunteers found 2,770 people without homes across the region, a slight increase from the 2,650 counted in 2011. Only Vancouver and the North Shore had more people sleeping outdoors.

“We’ve stemmed that rapid increase we saw in the mid 2000s,” said Deb Bryant of the Greater Vancouver Regional Steering Committee on Homelessness at a news conference. “The picture isn’t fabulous, but at least we’re sort of holding.”

The same can’t be said for Vancouver, where 1,798 people were without homes in 2014 after about six years of the number remaining steady around 1,600.

Mayor Gregor Robertson, who campaigned in the 2011 election with a promise to end street homelessness by 2015, was frustrated to see the numbers. The city and the province have spent millions buying housing for people at 14 B.C. Housing sites and a few interim housing locations.

“It’s disconcerting to see the number back up this year,” Robertson said. “This should be a catalyst – it needs to wake all of us up, and the provincial and federal government to step up with us and make sure we can bring that number right down to zero for next winter.”

He blamed the increase on delays in the opening of B.C. Housing sites, fewer winter shelter beds and renovictions from single room occupancy hotels.

But about 600 units are expected to open at five remaining B.C. Housing sites before December, so Robertson is hopeful the numbers will drop next year.

http://metronews.ca/news/vancouver/1011497/vancouver-homeless-population...

Robertson and developer-friendly Vision are always hopeful that the homeless situation will improve next year (after the election). 

COPE vows to take on Vision Vancouver with majority-women slates

At a press conference Monday on the steps of City Hall, COPE Executive Director Sean Antrim, Equity & Diversity Caucus member Imtiaz Popat and Membership Secretary Gretchen Dulmage outlined their party's nomination process. "COPE is the only civic party whose candidates will be democratically selected," Antrim said. COPE has released a guide for prospective nominees and plans to hold "mentorship" workshops and host nominee debates. "All voices will be heard," said Antrim.

The party's membership voted last year to cancel their strategic alliance with governing party Vision Vancouver and run a mayoral candidate as well as a majority slate in council, parks and school board. In March, members voted to ensure that a majority of their candidates identify as women. They have also reserved at least one spot on for an Aboriginal candidate.

"We will be contesting Vision Vancouver in this election," Antrim said. "COPE will build a Vancouver everyone can afford and sweep real estate developers out of the back rooms."

New left-wing party in Vancouver joins growing chorus of criticisms against City Hall

But other prominent political figures on Vancouver's left want to take their own shot at Vision and the increasing gap between haves and have-nots. On Monday, former COPE city council candidate R.J. Aquino, backed by prominent Vancouver progressives like former NDP MLA David Chudnovsky and endorsed by sitting MLA and former BCCLA Chief Executive David Eby, announced the formation of a new progressive municipal party from the steps of City Hall. Aquino's party OneCity takes aim at the rising inequality in Vancouver.

"Those of us that formed OneCity have been in talks for over a year now," Aquino told me over email. "We've talked about how we're looking for a political home where we can do politics in a positive, respectful and inclusive way. We recognize and highlight the growing inequality in this city alongside the opportunities we have to strengthen the city through equity, affordability and diversity."

NorthReport wrote:

Gregor is going to win big, very big, this election.

I would be careful about that prognostication. Sounds like too much complacency that we have seen in other elections before. My reasoning:

1. 2011 election saw a 54% to 40% win by Gregor over the NPAs Anton;

2. At that time, Gregor was riding high in approval ratings. Not so much right now.

3. The 2011 NPAs Anton was a dud;

4. Now the NPAs LaPointe is a much more formidable candidate and is using media and social media to his advantage;

5. COPE did not run a mayoral candidate in either 2008 or 2011;

6. COPEs mayoral candidate is Meena Wong, who was the fed NDPs candidate in Vancouver South in 2011. Even saw pics of Meena Wong with fed BC NDP MPs on Twitter after their recent fed transit announcement.

If the NPAs LaPointe takes another 5% - 10% of Gregors 2011 popular vote - in conjunction with COPEs Meena Wong taking 10% of Gregors 2011 popular vote - then the NPAs LaPointe takes the mayoral crown.

And, frankly, I can see the foregoing happening right now. Unfortunately.

He probably won't lose, but he's definitely not popular like he used to be. I hear a lot of griping about him these days.

Gregor holds the line of bland, inoffensive progressivism based on basically nothing. They have lots of money from developers which gives them enough of a platform and communications staff to hold down the mushy middle of YVR politics. But predictably he gets it from the marginally smaller right-wing vote and the quite-a-bit smaller radical leftists who feel betrayed or just generally screwed over by his politics. Plus Vision's school board is excellent and Parks are ok so that gives them some "hold your nose" votes too.

That, and there hasn't been a left-wing contender for Mayor since Vision was created so whatever vulnerabilities he had were moot.

Firstly, the only pollsters during the 2011 Van City mayoral election, AFAIK, were Forum Research and Justason Market Intelligence. Caveat - as I have stated numerous times here on Babble threads about pollsters these days - Just cheap polling junk for public consumption in terms of actual numbers. More expensive CATI telephone polling seems to have deserted us here in BC unfortunately. The trends, from poll to poll by each pollster, is the only material matter worth watching these days IMHO.

BTW, I would place Gregor as a centre-left, green Liberal on the federal spectrum. In Van City, only centre-left or centre-right candidates can win. In any event, back in 2011 Gregor had considerably high approval ratings based upon JMIs poll back then:

October 2011 pre-election approval numbers:

53% Approve

27% Disapprove

Not bad.

Latest April 2014 approval numbers:

40% Approve

38% Disapprove

Struggling methinks.

Also back in 2011, many neighbourhoods or polling stations within such areas as Coal Harbour, North False Creek, Yaletown, and West Point Grey, for example, voted federal Con in the 2011 fed election. Yet many of these same neighbourhoods or polling stations also voted for Gregor in 2011. Not surprised about that considering that many provincial Lib operatives are also involved with Gregor's Vision Vancouver and even a major provincial Lib fundraiser (Condo King Bob Rennie) is also a Vision Vancouver fundraiser. Facts of political life in order to garner the swing vote.

The NPA's candidate back in 2011 was Suzanne Anton who, while a city councillor, was not viewed as mayoral material. That and the fact that progressive left COPE (which has been around since 1968) did not run mayoral candidates in either 2008 or 2011, which also benefitted Gregor as well.

So the final vote tally in 2011 was:

Gregor (VV) 54%

Anton (NPA) 40%

Since then, it is also apparent that both Vision Vancouver and the NPA are now both viewed as developer's parties by many as well. And considerable news has come out about densified developments in neighbourhoods opposed by many therein apparently occurring without proper public consultation, which, I suspect, has caused some political blow-back to Vision Vancouver and Gregor. How that will play out in November's civic election is a tough call but is undoubtedly impacting Gregor's approval numbers.

This time around the NPA has selected Kirk LaPointe as its mayoral candidate. I would categorize him as a centre-right, social Liberal federally. While LaPointe does not have much name recognition, I suspect that future NPA advertising will take care of that matter. They are also well-funded. LaPointe has certainly been quite effective on social media, from what I have seen, and seems to be taking notes from Calgary mayor Nenshi's initial mayoral campaign. And Nenshi used purple as his political colour. As so now does the NPA. Go figure.

LaPointe also comes across as polished and smooth compared to his 2011 predecessor Anton.

With all of the foregoing, I def see the NPA's LaPointe bleeding off at least 5% of Gregor's 2011 popular vote share.

On top of that, progressive-left COPE, which now has a mayoral candidate, Meena Wong (fed NDP candidate in Vancouver South), will also bleed off some of Gregor's progressive vote on the left apparently not happy about the developer's party stigma attached to VV and the relevant neighbourhood issue again. COPE's Wong is also pressing some hot button issues, so far, about homelessness and taxing absentee landords owning empty houses all over Van City. I suspect that tack will resonate with more politically aligned progressive-left voters.

That's why I can see COPE's Meena Wong obtaining at least 10% of Gregor's 2011 popular vote share. Ergo, right now, I see the following mayoral outcome compared to 2011 (give or take a few % points):

Gregor (VV) - 40% (roughly -15% from 2011)

LaPointe (NPA) - 45% (roughly +5% from 2011)

Wong (COPE) - 10% (roughly +10% from 2011)

Def will be a close one. Again, my 2 cents.

[url=http://www.vancourier.com/vancouver-votes/election-news/cope-pitches-15-... pitches $15 minimum wage[/url]

Quote:

Meena Wong wants to give Vancouverites a raise. COPE’s mayoral candidate announced last week she wants to help residents cope with the high cost of living here by implementing a local minimum wage of $15 per hour — $4.75 higher than the current provincial minimum — if the left-leaning civic party wins a mandate in the upcoming election.

“The people of Vancouver need a raise, especially those who work the hardest and get paid the least, hospitality workers, retail and food workers, caregivers and more,” she told reporters at Oakridge Centre Thursday morning. “These people are often women, people of colour, immigrants, indigenous people and students.”

- See more at: http://www.vancourier.com/vancouver-votes/election-news/cope-pitches-15-...

[url=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DuR7aQNpm9c]From the East Coast to the West, a tribute to Robertson's tenure as mayor so far[/url]

Advance polling stations (circles 2km and 4km). Map Source: City of Vancouver Open Data Site, 2008 Orthophotos

Apparently there is an attempt to suppress the advanced polling vote on the east side by using tactics familiar to everyone who follows Republican politics south of the border.

According to the City’s own website, there are no advance polling stations in the neighbourhoods of DTES, Strathcona, Grandview-Woodland and Mount Pleasant.  How can that be?

Why are so many Vancouver citizens on the eastside forced to travel by bus or walk long distances simply to exercise their constitutional franchise when easy access is available on the west side, downtown and in south Vancouver? Are there no suitable buildings available on our side of the City, or is there another more invidious reason?

There are tens of thousands of eligible voters being slapped in the face by this omission. They have four weeks to fix this.  I bet they don’t.

http://jaksview3.wordpress.com/

[url=http://thelasource.com/en/2014/10/06/vancouver-election-whats-the-point-... election: What’s the point of the NPA?[/url]

Quote:

Why is the NPA so listless?

The main answer is the breadth of the hegemonic coalition that Vision Vancouver has come to represent. When the founders of Vision split from the Coalition of Progressive Electors a decade ago, they managed to keep much of that progressive voting base with them, while boxing out and marginalizing COPE and other alternatives to their left. This story is pretty well known.

What’s less often observed is the way that Vision has taken over much of the NPA’s raison d’être. The NPA still describes itself as a “coalition of Liberals and Conservatives.” They were founded way back in the 1930s explicitly to block the socialists of the CCF from office. But today many Liberals feel more at home with Vision, and the NPA is no longer needed to keep the political left out of power.

...

In the end, this may be the biggest purpose the NPA still serves: as a right-wing threat that can make Vision look good in comparison. That’s why Vision will keep all its attention on the NPA, a mostly spent political force.

So while much of the media presents this election as a battle between Robertson and LaPointe, the more interesting and substantial challenge to the status quo at City Hall is coming from the left. That’s why future columns here will focus on proposals from Meena Wong and COPE, as well as One City and the Greens.

Left Turn wrote:

[url=http://thelasource.com/en/2014/10/06/vancouver-election-whats-the-point-... election: What’s the point of the NPA?[/url]

Quote:

Why is the NPA so listless?

The main answer is the breadth of the hegemonic coalition that Vision Vancouver has come to represent. When the founders of Vision split from the Coalition of Progressive Electors a decade ago, they managed to keep much of that progressive voting base with them, while boxing out and marginalizing COPE and other alternatives to their left. This story is pretty well known.

What’s less often observed is the way that Vision has taken over much of the NPA’s raison d’être. The NPA still describes itself as a “coalition of Liberals and Conservatives.” They were founded way back in the 1930s explicitly to block the socialists of the CCF from office. But today many Liberals feel more at home with Vision, and the NPA is no longer needed to keep the political left out of power.

...

In the end, this may be the biggest purpose the NPA still serves: as a right-wing threat that can make Vision look good in comparison. That’s why Vision will keep all its attention on the NPA, a mostly spent political force.

So while much of the media presents this election as a battle between Robertson and LaPointe, the more interesting and substantial challenge to the status quo at City Hall is coming from the left. That’s why future columns here will focus on proposals from Meena Wong and COPE, as well as One City and the Greens.

I did get the sense that whatever originally motivated the COPE-Vision split, that Vision has over time effectively taken over the political space formerly occupied by the NPA.