Federal Election, 2015 - Seat Predictions

Doesn't mean they won't do it. You've gotta admit their strategies haven't been stellar lately. They are just arrogant enough to think they could get away with that. The alternative is giving the NDP credence as a real electoral option, which also might spell the end of the Liberal party.

Are you saying the other 2 seats will be one each for Green and BQ?

It still astounds me that Harper thinks he is going to win another majority.

At best he might win a minority, and to him that would be a loss.

Here's my current predictions for the next election, broken down by province.

[b]Newfoundland & Labrador[/b]
Lib 6
NDP 1

[b]Prince Edward Island[/b]
Lib 4

[b]Nova Scotia[/b]
Lib 6
Con 3
NDP 2

[b]New Brunswick[/b]
Lib 7
Con 2
NDP 1

[b]Québec[/b]
NDP 60
Lib 15
Con 3

[b]Ontario[/b]
Lib 66
Con 43
NDP 12

[b]Manitoba[/b]
Con 8
Lib 3
NDP 3

[b]Saskatchewan[/b]
Con 11
NDP 2
Lib 1

[b]Alberta[/b]
Con 32
Lib 1
NDP 1

[b]British Columbia[/b]
Con 26
NDP 10
Lib 5
Grn 1

[b]The North[/b]
Con 1
Lib 1
NDP 1

[b]Total[/b]
Con 129
Lib 115
NDP 93
Grn 1

I also predict that the Conservatives will win their minority government with fewer votes than the Liberals. A lot of the Liberals votes will be wasted as they pile up 30% or greater second place finishes in ridings that the Conservatives and NDP will win.

Why would you be so confident when that same situation happened quite recently, and the Liberals didn't cooperate with the opposition to keep the Cons out? They let them govern. Twice.

It seems strange to be so confident of a scenario when it's the exact opposite of what we've seen in reality. Are you just confident of it because you think it sounds nice?

alan smithee wrote:

Look how far those decisions got them. It's possible that they have learned a lesson. Why else would they be campaigning to the Left?

As was mentioned above by somebody else,the Liberals would be finished if they didn't work with the NDP.

Of course I could be wrong. Can't trust politicians.

I think you are wrong and I don't think the Liberals are campaigning to the left either. If Harper wins a minority government the Liberals will not risk sending Canada into another immediate election nor participating in a "coup" with the NDP. Harper would have to do something radical to push the Liberals into either of those avenues.

The Liberals would also support an NDP minority government as long as it's policies were moderate and were policies the Liberals would also support were they in power. If the NDP did anything that could be typlified as recklessly endangering the economy the Liberals would side with the Conservatives.

Brachina wrote:

Campaigning from the left? Trudeau has been campaigning from the Libartianist rightwing economic, sort of leftwing socially position.

It's interesting how much we agree even though we are not politically aligned.

Pondering wrote:

 If Harper wins a minority government the Liberals will not risk sending Canada into another immediate election nor participating in a "coup" with the NDP. Harper would have to do something radical to push the Liberals into either of those avenues.

There is no such thing as "winning a minority government" in our system of government. We elect a parliament and whoever can pass a throne speech will government. in Ontario in 1985 the PCs took 52 seats, the liberals 48 seats and the NDP 25 - the Liberals and NDP signed and accord and governed together effectively for over two years. Its irrelevant if the CPC has a plurality of seats - if the Liberals and NDP have more seats together they can should boot Harper from power. In fact Mulcair has already stated that he will make ANY arrangement with another federalist opposition party (ie: the Liberals and the Greens) if it means kicking out harper. Trudeau should do the same and be totally transparent that unless the CPC wins a majority - the opposition will form a coalition. If people are left suspecting that Trudeau will prop up harper - they will drop him like a hot potato

Left Turn wrote:

[b]Québec[/b]

NDP 60
Lib 15
Con 3

[b]British Columbia[/b]

Con 26
NDP 10
Lib 5
Grn 1

Not bad. I will give ya an A for effort. Quite gutsy this far out! That said, just a couple of quibbles. 

As for Quebec, still think the Cons will receive roughly 10 seats - back to their old norm.

From Lac St. Jean in the north thru QC to across the St. Lawrence River and the Beauce and local environs. 10 seats has been the Cons norm prior to the orange wave in `11. Remember that former BQ voters on east island Montreal are more likely to vote NDP than former BQ voters in old Creditiste, bleu, ADQ, CAQ areas north and south of Quebec City.

And also think Libs will do better than that in QC.

As for BC, am very familiar with all new ridings, demographics, historical voting records, most neighbourhoods therein, etc. Could you give me an individual break-down of the NDP and Lib ridings that you prognosticate them winning? Thanks.  

Sorry Stock. Gotta disagree somewhat.

Firstly, agree that the Cons in QC are viewed as western, right-wing Reform types IMHO. Anathema to QCers. Completely different than the old PCs. Akin to how the old Trudeau Libs were perceived in west in late 70`s and 80`s. Basically unelectable outside selective urban regions.

That said, both the old Trudeau Libs still had their western beach-heads akin to current Con beach-heads in QC. Those beach-heads in QC are in traditional `bleu` territory - akin to the Fraser Valley and Okanagan Valley in BC, for example - From Lac St. Jean north of QC, thru QC to the other side of the St. Lawrence River in the Beauce and local environs. 

The Cons won 10 QC seats therein in both `06 and `08. (as opposed to 5 in `11 with the orange wave)

BTW, I am beginning to now think that the Cons will even win a minority of seats... looking forward at current dynamics. Wouldn`t even be surprised to see them receive a small majority in 2015. Seriously.

In that regard, the Cons are targetting 15 seats in the aforementioned QC region. Again, still see them taking roughly 10 of those seats. FWIW. 

The Libs in QC are a completely different story with strength in mostly different regions IMHO.

Left Turn wrote:

Ok, here's the ridings I prognosticate that the NDP and Liberals will win in BC.

[b]NDP[/B]
New Westminster--Burnaby
Skeena--Bulkley Valley
Vancouver East

[b]Liberals[/b]

Surrey--Newton
Vancouver Centre
Vancouver Granville
Vancouver Quadra
Vancouver South

Thanks. Totally agree on foregoing. Still have doubts on following seats with reasons:

[b]NDP[/B]

Burnaby South

Likely will go NDP but both `08 and `11 showed only a 5% NDP victory over Cons. Libs seem to have been reinvigorated with airhead Trudeau. Lib vote strength in urban Van City will be spilling over into neighbouring inner suburbs such as Burnaby. Libs will def increase vote share here. Question is - will they take more from Cons or NDP?

Cowichan--Malahat--Langford

Cons would have won this riding by 3% in `08. Major residential development continues in Langford esp. on higher-end Bear Mountain. Libs will take bigger chunk of vote here as well since also part of urban Victoria. Greens also very strong on southern Van Isle and will also increase vote share. Friend on CML NDP exec thinks Cons will win seat. Also thinks Cons will nominate Langford mayor Stu Young albeit no evidence of that.

Nanaimo-Ladysmith

Cons would have won this seat by over 1% in `08. Again resurgent Libs will take higher vote share and Greens as well. Depends which party they take vote share from `11.

Port Moody--Coquitlam

Fin Donnelly is an excellent MP. No doubt about it. That said, Cons would have won this seat by 9% in `08 and 6% in `11. Again, Lib vote resurgence is key and which party it takes from. 

Surrey Centre

Said it in past and will say again. Weirdest riding in BC. Should be slam dunk NDP based upon demographics but is not. Has elected Reform and Cons in past. Cons won in `08 by about 3% and NDP won in `11 by 5%. Area where Lib vote increase will also matter. Major development of condos in riding as well.

Vancouver Kingsway

Don is great MP and likely NDP. But caveat. Libs held riding during 90`s and 2000`s. Con blue wave in Van City in `08 and `11 will recede. And Lib BC resurgence ground zero is in Van City. Former Lib Candidate Wendy Yuen now Lib candidate in Richmond. Curious whom Libs have in mind here.

Victoria

Was Lib in 90`s and then NDP. Greens almost won seat in `12 by-election. Greens very strong in region now after BC provincial election, right up to and including Cowichan Valley. Libs also resurgent in this urban area.

Also predict BC fed popular vote share in `15 as follows: (within a few % points)

Con: 40% (-6%)

NDP: 25%- (-8%)

Libs: 25%+ (+12%)

Green 10% (+2%)

BTW:

Seat projections:

Cons  -  100 - 130

Libs  -  80 - 120

NDP  -  70 - 110

 

If I HAD to guess:

Cons: 120

Libs:   115

NDP:   100

Greens:  1

Bloc:  2

Stockholm wrote:

There is no such thing as "winning a minority government" in our system of government. We elect a parliament and whoever can pass a throne speech will government.

I know that is how it works legally, but in practice, people expect the party with the highest number of votes to form the government.

Stockholm wrote:

  in Ontario in 1985 the PCs took 52 seats, the liberals 48 seats and the NDP 25 - the Liberals and NDP signed and accord and governed together effectively for over two years.

I didn't know about that but things are different now and at the federal level. People did not take well to the notion of Dion becoming PM.  I like to think they would be more accepting of Trudeau becoming PM even if he didn't come "first" in votes but I am not convinced they would.

Stockholm wrote:

Its irrelevant if the CPC has a plurality of seats - if the Liberals and NDP have more seats together they can should boot Harper from power.

They can, but whether or not they should is a matter of opinion. I would certainly support it

Stockholm wrote:

In fact Mulcair has already stated that he will make ANY arrangement with another federalist opposition party (ie: the Liberals and the Greens) if it means kicking out harper. Trudeau should do the same and be totally transparent that unless the CPC wins a majority - the opposition will form a coalition.

I'd like to see a quote on that. I am not convinced Mulcair was that cut and dried about it.

Stockholm wrote:

  If people are left suspecting that Trudeau will prop up harper - they will drop him like a hot potato.

Canadians expect the opposition to work with minority governments not automatically defeat them.

I suspect that this time around the public might well support Trudeau leading a coalition government but it would be taking a big risk.

A quick note on the minority gov't scenarios being discussed:  my own expectation is that if CPC drops into minority position but with the most seats, Harper would go (and/or be pushed) and a new CPC leader would be installed who would have first kick at forming a gov't and/or presenting a throne speech.  That would provide the CPC with the scope to say "We have heard the voter's message and made the necessary adjustments" and provide Trudeau + LPC (whether in 2nd or 3rd place) to negotiate an entente with the new-look CPC gov't.

I would think that Trudeau should resign as soon as possible, for the good of the Liberal Party and Canada as a whole. If he leads the Liberals to a third-place finish (quite likely, IMO), they will call for his head.

I don't know where they get their polling numbers from, but everyone I talk to says that Justin Trudeau is not suitable to be Prime Minister. He needs to step down to allow a professional Liberal politician to take the helm. Trudeau is performing so badly now that Harper is threatening an early election which he knows Trudeau will lose.

Trudeau has a responsibility to Canada to resign now as Liberal Party leader. Finding a new leader in the Liberal Party would call off the Harper attack dogs.

Theoretically (in the world of Harper!) there is a fixed election date of October, 2015, Robo.

However, there is growing speculation that he could ignore that legislation and try to call an early election when the polls indicate it would be to his advantage, just like in 2008.

Thus, the obsession with nominating candidates sooner than later.

 

edit: wrong thread

my prediction

NDP 163

Con 95

Lib 78

Green 1

Bloc 1

I'm sticking with the same predictions I made quite some time ago:

http://rabble.ca/babble/canadian-politics/federal-election-2015-predictions

 

Alberta:  Cons 33; NDP 1.

BC:  Cons 10; NDP 25; Libs 6; Greens 1.

Manitoba:  Cons 10; NDP 2; Libs 2.

NB:  Cons 3; NDP 2; Libs 5.

Newfoundland:  NDP 3; Libs 4.

NWT:  NDP 1.

Nova Scotia:  Cons 2; NDP 4; Libs 5.

Nunavut:  Cons 1.

Ontario:  Cons 30; NDP 27; Liberals 64.

PEI:  Cons 1; Libs 3.

Quebec:  Cons 3; NDP 50; Libs 9; Bloc 16.

Sask:  Cons 14; NDP 1; Libs 1.

Yukon:  Cons 1.

So, in total it will be Cons 106, NDP 116, Libs 99, Bloc 16, Greens 1.  (out of a total of 338)

(admittedly, the Bloc may be a bit high, but I'm still sticking with this prediction)

...and then Trudeau's Lib's join up with Harper's Cons, and the Cons continue to rule.

gadar wrote:

Surrey -newton will most probably be  NDP (cons can take it with the right candidate)

van south will likely stay con (NDP candidate is still to be nominated, so who the NDP choses can make a difference)

Interesting that the 2 ridings that ya mentioned also have the largest Indo-Canadian populations in BC.

Here is my reasoning for both:

1. [b]Surrey Newton:[/b]

Likely has the highest Indo-Canadian population in BC. And, for whatever reason, they tend to vote NDP provincially and Lib federally. Back in 2011, the NDP scored its highest popular vote share in BC at 33% with the collapse of the Libs. The Libs had its lowest popular vote share in BC in 2011 at 13%. Goes many decades back for such a low Lib popular share result.

Even then, in 2011, the NDP only won this newly reconfigured riding by  a razor thin 1.3% margin. And the Libs would have won it by a 10% margin back in 2008. Now the Libs, under Herr Trudeau, seem to have bounced back big time here in BC. And Herr Trudeau also seems to be attracting large crowds in the Surrey Indo-Canadian community from what I have seen in the MSM.

And the Surrey-Newton Lib candidate, Sukh Dhaliwal, is nothing but a convicted tax scammer as far as I am concerned. Yet he seems to be quite popular within the Indo-Canadian community there. And the Lib Surrey-Newton nomination meeting also seems to have been the largest in Canada to date.

Cons are not in play in that riding. Minor players. In fact, I have previously, on Babble, put Surrey-Newton in the Lib fold. And it will likely remain a strong Lib seat in BC moving forward, after 2015.

2. [b]Vancouver South:[/b]

The 2nd highest Indo-Canadian population in BC. Yes, I am fully aware of the problems in that Lib nomination process. Yet the Lib, who stepped down, does not blame it on Herr Trudeau in the MSM. Blames it on his BC organizers in the MSM. Go figure. In any event, again the Indo-Canadian community trends provincial NDP and fed Lib here as well.

Even the provincial NDP has been unable to win the 2 seats underlying this fed seat. It has always been a fed Lib & Con battle. BTW, the last NDP candidate here was Meena Wong who received 21% in 2011. She also recently ran under the left banner for COPE as mayor in the recent Van City muni election.

When the Libs are strong in BC, Van City proper has always been their area of strength. In 2011, the Con blue wave rolled into Van City with the Lib collapse. Def looks like the Lib red wave will roll out from there in 2015. Do not know how far that will go and further implications. And with that the Libs win back Van South. BTW, the Con MP in Van-South had numerous highly publicized negative stories in the MSM that she ran away from in election 2011. She also seems to be invisible to this day.

As an aside, the 2 toughest ridings to predict in BC from my perspective right now? Victoria and neighbouring Saanich-Esquimalt-Juan De Fuca. That is why I have listed both as 'leaning'.

Again, when the Libs are strong in BC both urban Van City as well as urban Victoria is where they receive their largest riding popular vote shares historically. Yet, in Greater Victoria, the Greens are also surging. In the the Victoria riding, that means strong NDP, strong Green, and strong Lib showings. Cons irrelevant.

Just this evening it has come to my attention (not hearsay) that both the Greens and Libs will have well-known local Victoria media personas represent them as their respective candidates in the Victoria riding. And I know who both are. Too early to know how that will play out.

And neighbouring Saanich-Esquimalt-Juan De Fuca also will have a strong NDP, Green, and Lib presence. Yet that likely will split the vote allowing the Con to squeeze up the middle.

Again, I have placed these 2 BC ridings as 'leaning' as early days yet.  

nicky wrote:

I appreciate your detailed assessments Centrist, even if they are gloomy.

I would point out from dstant Toronto that the Cons have not seen 40% in BC in any recent poll so there are grounds to hope you are overly pessimistic.

Also, the Cons stand to win a number of seats because of the high Green vote. This may be squeezed back towards the NDP in the home stretch.

Thanks Nicky. In response I still recall, during election 2011, the fed polls by Angus Reid and Ekos, for instance, showing the NDP in the lead here in BC. Even recall in previous elections 2008 and 2006 the same thing by Ekos at least. Yet, on e-day 2011 the Cons received 46% of the vote here in BC. No pollster ever showed that huge swing.

In any event, the Cons have always been in the roughly 40% range here in BC on e-day over the past 4 or 5 elections. Nothing ever changes.

As you might be aware, I have oft pilloried pollsters on here - be it opt-in online panel polls or IVR polls. Mostly junk these days.

As a further aside, quarterly BC provincial polls were the norm here in BC for over 20 years and dutifully reported upon by the media. After the May, 2013 provincial election fiasco that has all now ended.

Since then, the BC MSM refuses to report any more BC polls. The only polls since then have been by even worse 2nd rate pollsters such as Justasen and Insights West. And I dig them up myself whenever I can to have my own poll fix.

While I know my prediction is pessimistic, I am also quite comfortable right now in calling all of BCs 42 fed ridings. A few may change prior to e-day however. As I pointed out. Unless some poli earthquake happens. :)  Lets all hope for the best!