Vancouver Municipal Election: Saturday, November 15, 2014

No advance voting in city’s poorest neighbourhoods City won’t comment on how polling stations were chosen

The City of Vancouver’s plan to increase voter turnout in the Nov. 15 civic election will not include adding advance polling stations in less affluent neighbourhoods such as the Downtown Eastside, Strathcona or Grandview-Woodland.

Nobody would explain why when contacted by the Courier.

Earlier this year, Janice MacKenzie, the city’s chief election officer, announced the city’s goal of raising voter turnout by at least four per cent from last year’s 34.6 per cent. The long term target is 60 per cent by 2025.

“We want to ensure we do everything possible to make voting in the municipal election as easy and convenient as possible,” said MacKenzie in a June 24 press release. “Statistics show voters increasingly like the convenience and flexibility of advance voting. By adding additional locations, days, extended hours, and extra support we hope voters will take advantage of the opportunity to cast their ballot to shape Vancouver’s future.”

In the 2011 election, only four community centres — Dunbar, Sunset, West End and Renfrew — offered eligible voters a place to cast their ballots early. This time the first three centres will be joined by the Roundhouse, Thunderbird, Killarney, Kitsilano and Kerrisdale community centres, as well as city hall, in offering the service Nov. 4 to 12 daily from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m.

The Courier was not permitted to speak with MacKenzie due to a policy requiring all media requests be approved by the city’s corporate communications office.

Green Party city council candidate and 25-year Strathcona resident Pete Fry calls the lack of an answer a “cop-out.”

“I am honestly curious to understand the rationale behind it,” he said in a phone interview Wednesday. “When I first heard the news, I circulated it through Twitter and asked both Vision and the NPA to come forward on it. Of course, COPE is as equally concerned about this as the Greens in no small part because [the neighbourhoods] represent our own political stronghold.”

Fry pointed out it can be difficult for residents in low-income neighbourhoods to take the time to vote given work or childcare demands and not having cars to easily get to polling stations.

“At best it is just a gross insensitivity to the actual needs of the population, or at worst it is some kind of intentional voter suppression,” he said.

Former Grandview-Woodland Area Council [GWAC] president Jak King doesn’t think city employees should be running city elections.

“It does bring up the larger question of why the chief electoral officer is not an independent body here,” said King. “Janice MacKenzie reports directly to [city manager] Penny Ballem and Penny Ballem reports to the mayor. It’s not an independent office and we certainly should have a third party or Elections B.C. or somebody running our elections.”...

http://www.vancourier.com/news/no-advance-voting-in-city-s-poorest-neigh...

[url=http://globalnews.ca/news/1613505/candidate-for-burnaby-mayor-promises-t... mayoral candidate wants to kiss PDAs goodbye[/url]

One City and COPE liven up the Vancouver election campaign

Derrick O'Keefe

quote:

I hope my pessimism of the intellect turns out to be wrong, however, because COPE, One City and the Greens all have candidates who would greatly improve the composition of Vancouver City Council. COPE and OneCity, in particular, have put out some excellent progressive policy proposals in the past couple of weeks.

For example, COPE has made a proposal to make transit affordable for all in Vancouver. The universal program would give everyone an unlimited, three zone transit pass for just $30/month, or $1 a day. People would be able to opt out.

This transit pledge is just the latest in a series of bold policy announcements that have generated media and public attention for COPE mayoral candidate Meena Wong far beyond what might otherwise have been expected from a poorly funded, third party campaign. Last month Wong and COPE promised to move toward a $15/hr minimum wage across the board in Vancouver, beginning with city workers and employees of big corporations. And of course Wong’s call for a surtax on empty properties continues to be the subject of sharp debate.

OneCity, the new political party backing RJ Aquino’s bid to get elected to Council, has added another anti-speculation measure to the mix, with a smart proposal to charge a levy on flipping properties. OneCity is advocating an incremental charge on profits made on sales within the first five years of ownership, taking a full 50 per cent of profits on sales in the first year, and decreasing to 20 per cent of profits in year four and five.

These proposals and these campaigns are important, regardless of the fact that both OneCity and COPE are long shots to get anyone elected to council. RJ Aquino and many of the key people behind OneCity left COPE after years of internal debate within the party. The fundamental disagreement was over the wisdom of electoral coalitions or non-competition agreements with Vision Vancouver....

http://thelasource.com/en/2014/10/20/one-city-and-cope-liven-up-the-vanc...

Interesting to note that VV had a fundraiser last night that attracted 1,000. All good. But again, I stand by my previous post in this thread that the outcome will be a knuckle-biter.

In that vein, during the last 2011 Van City muni election, Vision completely ignored the NPA and its dud mayoral candidate Suzanne Anton. A good strategy. Again resulted in this mayoral outcome:

Gregor (VV): 53%

Anton: (NPA): 40%

Again, my sense is that this is a completely different election with VV now targetting the NPA. Tells me that it is a lot closer this time around. I also wonder why VV is not targetting COPE and Meena Wong, which will bleed left-wing votes from Gregor to her. Hope not a strategic mistake.

In any event a few tidbits to corroborate my previous post - from Twitter.

Someone from the east-side of Van City, who remains undecided, has made these Tweet observations in his local neighbourhood. Back in 2011... his neighbourhood was swamped with VV lawn signs. Unanimously. This time around he notices that only 50% of the lawn signs in his neighbourhood are VV. The rest are NPA/COPE. And he has never seen NPA lawn signs in his hood before, which is NDP provincially/federally.

And last night a candidates forum was held in the north-east Van City neghbourhood of Grandview Woodlands - also provincial/federal NDP territory. And VV had huge victory margins therein back in 2011. This Tweet from Green van City Councillor Adriane Carr says it all (along with someone else corroborating same):

Quote:

Adriane Carr @AdrianeCarr
 

Wow. Chernon of Cedar Party says "we must wipe Vision off the map" at Grandview Woodland debate and crowd cheered. #fb #vanpoli #Vancouver

 

Raymond Tomlin ‏@raytomlin  

.@CedarParty @glenchernen says, 'We must wipe Vision off the electoral map!' #GWAC audience cheers!

Honestly, thse are not good omens and complacency in a campaign will kill ya if ya don't see what is potentially coming down the proverbial pipeline.

Robertson and Meggs are now suing the NPA and LaPointe, claiming the NPA and LaPointe made defamatory statements alleging that Robertson and Meggs are involved in a "corrupt", "cash-for-jobs" deal with the city's unions.

The Notice of Civil Claim is here.

Interestingly, Bryan Baynham, the lawyer acting for Robertson and Meggs, is closely connected with the provincial Liberals and for years was in charge of vetting their candidates (not sure if he still is).

Personally, I have little time for these kinds of lawsuits. I worry about the chilling effect they could have on free and open debate. While politicians should not have free reign to slander one another, one has to expect that one's reputation is inevitably going to be attacked when you step into the political arena.

Seems like Ian Baillie, fromer executive director of Vision Vancouver, (who is still "tied-in") was being quite candid tonight in his Tweets with some of his 2011 NPA nemesis:

Quote:

Ian Baillie‏ @BaillieIan

@Fontaine_D @barbjustason @MikeKlassen Anton was never that close at this point in the race. 2011 spreads were expanding unlike this race.

-------------------------

Ian Baillie @BaillieIan 

@barbjustason @Fontaine_D @MikeKlassen she had her biggest bounce right at beginning of occupy. Was within 7 of gregor our internals @ time

--------------------------

Ian Baillie @BaillieIan · 

@MikeKlassen @barbjustason @Fontaine_D the npa have the exact same numbers- no way this is a lock for vision-all data suggest tight race

-------------------------

Ian Baillie‏@BaillieIan

@barbjustason @MikeKlassen @Fontaine_D everyone I'm sure has the same numbers. Much different then 2011.

--------------------------

Ian Baillie @BaillieIan 

@Fontaine_D @MikeKlassen @rodmickleburgh @barbjustason Data says Lapointe can win.

--------------------------

Ian Baillie @BaillieIan 

@barbjustason @Fontaine_D @MikeKlassen @rodmickleburgh I think it's a race down to the wire on this election. Its going to be close.

--------------------------

Ian Baillie‏@BaillieIan

@rodmickleburgh @barbjustason @Fontaine_D @MikeKlassen I think you hit the nail on the head rod. No 3rd mayoral candidate in 2011

And then we have Frances Bula's article tonight (long-time Van City reporter and, let's face it, has tended to lean toward Gregor since 2008):

Quote:

On paper, the 50-year-old mayor should be a shoo-in for a third term next Saturday, just as he was three years ago.

But Mr. Robertson’s candidates are warning their supporters the gap between the mayor and his closest rival, the NPA’s Kirk LaPointe, is dangerously small.

Vision’s slim margin is also a factor of voters splitting off to other parties.

Those include the long-standing left-wing party COPE, and its mayoral candidate Meena Wong, which broke away from a coalition with Vision Vancouver; the Green Party, which is positioning itself as a middle-of-the-road balance-of-power party; 

Vision’s council candidates, and the mayor himself, are routinely booed or heckled at debates and community meetings.

Polls from the past year have shown that Vancouver residents think their council has done a poor job of handling growth and development, engaging with citizens, and combatting homelessness.

Even one of Vision’s biggest backers, former NDP premier Mike Harcourt, is exasperated.

“I’m probably going to support the Vision slate, but I’ve been chewing them out for a while,” he said this week.

But he adds that, in their drive to change things quickly, they handled some important issues badly. And they exacerbated that with the way they talked to residents.

“Their bedside manner is terrible. They’re tone-deaf with the public.”

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/are-gregor-robertso...

Quote:

With just a week to go until Vancouver’s civic election, both major parties say the race is far closer than they would have expected, with Vision Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson separated by as little as four points from Non-Partisan Association challenger Kirk LaPointe.

The closeness, identified in internal polls that neither party would make public but both men acknowledged, is the product of a once-sputtering election campaign that roared to life about two weeks ago. That’s when both Vision and the NPA said they sensed a change among voters, just after both parties’ campaigns went negative amid LaPointe’s allegations of corruption and Robertson’s attacks over campaign details and where LaPointe lives.

“Twelve to 14 days ago the numbers began to change pretty dramatically. Vision would acknowledge this too,” LaPointe told reporters Friday at a news conference where he also made public his campaign donors list. “There was a sea change. What was a gap of 10 to 12 points because I wasn’t widely recognized in the city began to change. Now people are beginning to lock in.”

However, Vision campaign strategists said the election shifted gears after the party’s internal polling showed a drift of about 10 per cent of its support to the leftist Coalition of Progressive Electors headed by Meena Wong.

“We’re the ones with momentum. We have the momentum, and they have momentum, but it is going the other way. In my view that is the way it is going to go for the balance of the campaign" LaPointe said.

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/LaPointe+narrows+with+Robertson+Vancouv...

Yep. Looks like a tight race as I had previously envisaged. If ya intend to vote for Meena, consider Gregor as Meena might just let LaPointe slip in. And also make sure to GOTV for VV next Saturday.

Centrist wrote:

Yep. Looks like a tight race as I had previously envisaged. If ya intend to vote for Meena, consider Gregor as Meena might just let LaPointe slip in.

Except that COPE backed Robertson in the 2008 and 2011 mayoral elections, and they feel strongly enough about the policies that have happened under his watch that they decided to run their own candidate. If Vision loses to the NPA on a mayoral split, they have nobody to blame but themselves.

Centrist wrote:

And also make sure to GOTV for VV next Saturday.

That's not going to matter, especially if the VV vote was identified earlier on in the campaign. Sometimes when momentum swings a particular way in a political campaign, people who have been identified as supporters of one particular candidate will change their minds without telling the campaign. So the campaign thinks they're pulling their own vote when they're inadvertently helping their opponents. Take a look at Winnipeg, where Judy's team undoubtedly pulled votes for Falcon-Ouelette and Bowman.

ghoris wrote:

I have a feeling we're looking at another Vision sweep. It's pretty clear Vision deliberately leaked that 'internal poll' to address the complacency factor and scare their supporters into showing up to vote. LaPointe and the NPA will hold their support base on the West Side and Fraserview/Killarney, and maybe chip away at Vision support in places like Point Grey and Kensington/Cedar Cottage. COPE, OneCity and the Greens just don't have the resources to run a competitive city-wide campaign.

My guess is we'll see Robertson re-elected fairly comfortably, and a similar council breakdown: 6-7 Vision, 2-3 NPA, 1 Green.

I expect Vision will get strong majorities on both the School Board and Park Board as well.

Not likely. On the cover of the Vancouver Sun is an independent poll by Canseco's firm that also shows a 4% gap with 20% undecided.

One thing we have learned in just about every recent election in Canada is that undecideds tend to break towards backing the incumbent

ghoris wrote:

I have a feeling we're looking at another Vision sweep. It's pretty clear Vision deliberately leaked that 'internal poll' to address the complacency factor and scare their supporters into showing up to vote.

Sorry, gotta disagree. Remember the campaign this time back in 2011? VV's ads completely ignored the NPA. In fact, Gregor ran "positive ads" the whole time through. The ads that VV ran for the last week of the 2011 campaign were "elect Tony Tang" ads (along with the rest of the VV team). Remember those?

And Gregor won by a margin of 53% - 40% for a 13% spread at the end of the day. That was when the NPA ran, what one can fairly say, was a poor communicator/candidate in Suzanne Anton. VV ran 8 councillors/COPE 2 for 10 council spots for a very tightly knit campaign to boot.

This time around, COPE is not only running a mayoral candidate but also 7 council candidates. Again, unlike 2011 when the Greens ran just one candidate in Adriane Car, the Greens are running 3 candidates. Will likely result in considerable progressive vote splitting not only in the mayoral ticket but also in the 10 council seats.

Also, objectively speaking, the NPA seems to have a somewhat more telegenic and better communicator in the NPA's Kirk LaPointe. Don't kid yourself. Following Twitter, amongst other social media, and putting aside the obvious partisans, it seems that many former 2011 VV voters are bailing to the NPA this time in terms of both mayoral candidate as well as a split council.   

Further anecdotal evidence regarding the foregoing. As a political nerd (yep) every election I take a drive through certain ridings and areas in Van City (muni, provincial, and federal) to get a sense of what is going on in terms of private lawn signage. As an aside, unlike most suburbs, which are devoid of lawn signage, Van City continues to be the best in Metro Vancouver.

So I took a drive around East Van and Kitsilano, which were solid VV lawn sign areas/voting areas in 2011. Compared to the 2011 election, I didn't see as much lawn signage this time. But I saw considerably more lawn signage in these areas for the NPA and COPE than I did in 2011. Seriously.

Long-time Van City municipal G & M columnist Frances Bula (who has been favourable to Gregor and VV since 2008) also did the same thing this Saturday. Her findings were similar to mine:

Quote:

 The Bula election lawn-sign count: It’s not 2011 any more

http://www.francesbula.com/uncategorized/the-bula-election-lawn-sign-cou...

As an aside, both Bula and I noticed something else: also many stand-alone lawn signs (with nothing else) for current/former NPA school trustees Ken Denike and Sophia Wong who were booted from the NPA for their social-conservative views against gays in school, or something to that effect. Doubt that most of these households are VV voters.

Finally, I noticed that VV strategist/communciations vp Marcella Munro (who also has similar duties with the BC NDP) was annoyed about News 1130 reporting, 10 days ago, about the old JMI poll. She tweeted that it was old news and what was currently not happening at the time with their internals. Suspect that she encouraged/ was instrumental in leaking the internal Stratcon leak - as you suggest in order to avoid complacency - along with her experience of what happened during the BC NDP provincial campaign in 2013.

It's a double-edged sword though. Also gives hope and momentum to the NPA and its campaign workers. As a matter of fact, the NPA's Lapointe has confirmed VV's internal polling numbers in various MSM articles.

What was more perturbing was that Gregor was Tweeting from Commercial Drive yesterday. I mean WTF? Commercial Drive is bedrock VV territory. Would be almost akin to Adrian Dix campaigning in his riding of Van-Kingsway during an election campaign. Something does not make sense.

FWIW, former Van City mayor Mike Harcourt would be the ultimate endorsement for Gregor. Ya know what Harcourt said this weekend to the G & M about Gregor and VV?:

Quote:

Even one of Vision’s biggest backers, former NDP premier Mike Harcourt, is exasperated.

“I’m probably going to support the Vision slate, but I’ve been chewing them out for a while,” he said this week.

But he adds that, in their drive to change things quickly, they handled some important issues badly. And they exacerbated that with the way they talked to residents. “Their bedside manner is terrible. They’re tone-deaf with the public.”

Frankly, couldn't believe that Gregor would pull out former BC NDP premier Ujjal Dosanjh, who lost his federal Lib seat in Van South in 2011, as a major endorsement. 

Double-edged sword again. Ujjal is loathed  and considered a traitor within BC NDP ranks. If anything, Ujjal's endoresment may even potentially push more left-wing 2011 VV voters toward COPE. Dumb tactic IMHO.

Finally, as G & M columnist Frances Buka has noticed, nothing akin to this happened in 2011:

Quote:

Vision’s council candidates, and the mayor himself, are routinely booed or heckled at debates and community meetings.

Polls from the past year have shown that Vancouver residents think their council has done a poor job of handling growth and development, engaging with citizens, and combatting homelessness.

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Just ask Winnipeg mayor Judy Wasylycia-Leis how accurate polling is in many cases.

First off, you have previously stated that Judy was not a great communicator. I personally do not have access to her in order ot discern same. Will say this - Van City's LaPointe seen to have a clear personal communication edge over Gregor.

Secondly, we are talking about public opinion polling here. Cheap stuff for public consumption. That said, have always been a fan of CATI Probe Research in MB. Produce very good stuff "outside eletion campaigns" that is.

BC had the same with Mustel but it seems to have abandoned the BC poli field 2 years ago. That said, during an election campaign, numbers move. And during the last 10 days - one week of a campaign, they can move swiftly with switchers/undecideds breaking. MB's Probe, as a public pollster, is in the field for quite a few days. And not able to see daily shifts near the end. To be frank.

The only CATI pollster that doessame is Nanos - federally - every day at the end of the election.

In any event, VV utilizes Stratcom as its internal pollster. The same guys that the BC NDP used during the May, 2013 election. Look how that turned out,

OTOH, the NPA is utilizing Maple Leaf Strategies, the same internal pollster that the BC Libs used in 2013. As an aside, I still recall the BC Libs sending Christy Clark into the Metro Vancouver ridings of Delta-North and Surrey-Fleetwood during the last weekend of the May, 2013 Bc campaign. Thought WTF? They have been BC NDP held in both '05 and '09. Yep. the Libs internal pollster not only nailed those ridings but the 50 ridings that they claimed to have in the bag before the election night results even came in.

In any event, my prediction right now:

Mayor: LaPointe (narrow margin and the first to defeat a mayoral incumbent in 34 years, since 1980, when Harcourt defeated incumbent Volrich)

Council: (in no particular order in our at-large system - incumbency/name recognition/mayoral momentum/VV & COPE & Green split are all factors)

In no particular order:

NPA:

1. George Affleck

2. Elizabeth Ball

3. Melissa De Genova 

4. Ian Robertson

VV: 

1. Raymond Louie

2. Andrea Reimer

3. Heather Deal

4. Kerry Jang

Green:

1. Adriane Carrr

2. Pete Fry

Undoubtebly, most of the foregoing will be elected as councillors. I can even see the 3rd Green candidate elected. If LaPointe has a larger spread with Gregor, then I can even possibly see a 5th NPA councillor. But the odds on that are less than the 3rd Green.

Aristotleded24 wrote:

My point being, as you have said before, that polling often gets it wrong and the results often end up way off from what was predicted. Polls are also misrepresented, for example there was one poll in Winnipeg that had Judy in the lead among all the candidates, but there was a larger percentage of undecided voters than thos who would vote for Judy, and yet the poll was trumpeted as showing a lead for Judy when that was clearly not the case.

Point being, polling doesn't always get everyone, especially in a day and age when people screen their calls and are dropping land lines. You can get a feel for how things are going, for example your descriptions of the signs and the tone of the campaigns and the comparison to 2011 is very insightful, and helps paint a picture.

Again. "Public" opinion polling for public consumption.

Remember that, by the end of the day, both Van City's 2 major parties (VV and NPA) combined will have amassed/spent ~$5 million for the campaign. Which other muni parties in Canada have access to that kinda cash?

That said, "internal polling" by these respective parties tells 'em exactly what is going on. And I mean "exactly". Very, very expensive stuff. All CATI polling, by neighbourthood, with Mandarin/Cantonese (Chinese)/Punjabi/Tagalog. etc. interviewers where required. 

The TV/radio ads, locale of mayoral candidates, new promises, etc. are ALL determined by their internal polling to boot. 

To reiterate, can you imagine $5 million spent during the recent Winnipeg muni election campaign? Rediculous amount there, right?! :D

Centrist wrote:

What was more perturbing was that Gregor was Tweeting from Commercial Drive yesterday. I mean WTF? Commercial Drive is bedrock VV territory. Would be almost akin to Adrian Dix campaigning in his riding of Van-Kingsway during an election campaign. Something does not make sense.

Actually that makes perfect sense. It's a city-wide vote for mayor so an extra vote for VV coming from Commercial Drive is just as valuable as an extra vote in Shaughnessy. In a winner take all city-wide vote it makes sense for candidates to drive up support and turnout in the strongest areas. To me this is just like how in a US presidential election - if Pennsylvania is a swing state - the final big Democratic Party events are not in 50/50 suburban areas - instead they get Bill Clinton and Barack Obama to campaign in the African-American areas of downtown Philly where Dems get 95% of the vote and its all about driving up turnout!

There is no mileage in Adrian Dix winning vancouver-Kingsway by 20% instead of 15% in our FPTP system, but imagine if we had proportional representation or a direct vote for Premier - then it would make perfect sense for Dix to campaign heavily in his own riding.

Centrist wrote:

Yep. Looks like a tight race as I had previously envisaged. If ya intend to vote for Meena, consider Gregor as Meena might just let LaPointe slip in.

You are actually advocating strategic voting?

Interesting background information about Surrey, Centrist. I think on this matter our recent posts on this thread are showing us to be more in agreement than in disagreement.

terrytowel wrote:

Centrist wrote:

Yep. Looks like a tight race as I had previously envisaged. If ya intend to vote for Meena, consider Gregor as Meena might just let LaPointe slip in.

You are actually advocating strategic voting?

If you want to stop right-wing Kirk LaPoint, you cannot vote for Meena Wong.

terrytowel wrote:

terrytowel wrote:

Centrist wrote:

Yep. Looks like a tight race as I had previously envisaged. If ya intend to vote for Meena, consider Gregor as Meena might just let LaPointe slip in.

You are actually advocating strategic voting?

If you want to stop right-wing Kirk LaPoint, you cannot vote for Meena Wong.

FWIW the rightwing Kirk Lapointe is still to the left of rightwing John Tory!

One thing to consider in Vancouver is Gregor Robertson has denounced the expansion of the Kinder-Morgan pipeline while LaPointe is in favour of more tanker traffic etc... if LaPointe wins it will be interpreted as meaning that people in vancouver are in favour of more pipelines and more tanker traffic and it will encourage the BC and federal governments to follow through with Kinder-Morgan and probably Northern gateway as well.