Justin Trudeau: Is he actually going to be a drag on the Liberal 2015 election chances?

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Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

So Trudeau, again agrees with Harper, it was a "terrorist", attack instead of with Tom, eh? What a weasel!

Pondering

Arthur Cramer wrote:

So Trudeau, again agrees with Harper, it was a "terrorist", attack instead of with Tom, eh? What a weasel!

He didn't agree with Harper, he agreed with the commissioner of the RCMP who stated by law that he fits the description.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Pondering wrote:

Arthur Cramer wrote:

So Trudeau, again agrees with Harper, it was a "terrorist", attack instead of with Tom, eh? What a weasel!

He didn't agree with Harper, he agreed with the commissioner of the RCMP who stated by law that he fits the description.

Weasel words, Pondering. Trudeau knows damn well this wasn't a terroritst attack; it was the work ol a looney-tune. Thank G-d Mulcair had the guts to stand up and call this what it is. Is there nothing Trudeau does that  you won't support,. Do you have no shame at all?

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

While not scientidic, so far tonight I have had to people who told me on twitter on response to my tweets that Trudeau's stance on this issue is causing to consider voting for Tom Mulcair and his Leadeship. All you Lib partisans on this board, you better hope your boy stops with this real and true gaffes. He's embarassing himself and losing the election. Very early of course, but you should be asking yourselfs why Le Dauphin just can't seem to get it right. I put it to you he hurt himself again today and I couldn't be happier, at least tonight.

ETA: They both started there tweets with I vote Liberal, but... Maybe Trudeau's embrace of the politics of fear, which he has used from the beginning while projecting this on the NDP, as have most of the LPC partisans, on this board, is finally starting to blow up in his smug little face.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Pondering wrote:

Arthur Cramer wrote:

So Trudeau, again agrees with Harper, it was a "terrorist", attack instead of with Tom, eh? What a weasel!

He didn't agree with Harper, he agreed with the commissioner of the RCMP who stated by law that he fits the description.

Weasel words no Trudeau's part, Pondering. Trudeau knows damn well this wasn't a terroritst attack; it was the work ol a looney-tune. Thank G-d Mulcair had the guts to stand up and call this what it is. Is there nothing Trudeau does that you won't support? Do you feel no shame at all?

mark_alfred

Arthur Cramer wrote:

So Trudeau, again agrees with Harper, it was a "terrorist", attack instead of with Tom, eh? What a weasel!

Hey Art.  Irrespective of what Trudeau and Harper say, Canadians agree with Tom.  People know it was the work of a disturbed individual.  Check out this video that shows Canadians in Hamilton standing up to someone portraying a bigot:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p9rFprD_Qf4

nicky

I've read quickly through the comments to the stories on the Globe and Star sites.
People agree with Tom's criminal not terrorist assessment by a wide margins. There is also much criticism of Justin's gutlessness on this issue,

Pondering

nicky wrote:
I've read quickly through the comments to the stories on the Globe and Star sites. People agree with Tom's criminal not terrorist assessment by a wide margins. There is also much criticism of Justin's gutlessness on this issue,

Terrorism appears in the criminal code with an official definition. The definition does not include any requirements for sanity or for belonging to any group.

Just like murder doesn't become not murder just because a person isn't sane, terrorism doesn't stop being terrorism based on the mental capacity of the terrorist.

nicky

Tom has the guts to stand up to the hysteria Harper is attempting to foment and exploit.

Justin sure doesn't.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Pondering wrote:

nicky wrote:
I've read quickly through the comments to the stories on the Globe and Star sites. People agree with Tom's criminal not terrorist assessment by a wide margins. There is also much criticism of Justin's gutlessness on this issue,

Terrorism appears in the criminal code with an official definition. The definition does not include any requirements for sanity or for belonging to any group.

Just like murder doesn't become not murder just because a person isn't sane, terrorism doesn't stop being terrorism based on the mental capacity of the terrorist.

That is nonsense. Stop being afraid and calm down Pondering.

NorthReport

So who has the skinny on the polling story out tonite showing the Trudeau Liberals continuing to tank in the polls?

NorthReport

Looking at the recent polling as we enter the pre-election period it appears that the title of this thread is right-on prophetic - yes!

NorthReport

Strategic voting is only brought up by the Liberals under 2 cicumstances:

1 when the NDP have fewer seats than the Liberals read: before 2011 election

2 when the NDP has less support than the Liberals in the polls: read after 2011 election

In other words stategic voting coming from the mouths of Liberals mean only one thing: NDP supporters should always vote Liberal and should never be supporting NDP policies or the NDP party.

Just think long and hard about this. 

And then make up your own mind who to vote for.

 

 

 

NorthReport
NorthReport

But don't worry as he is progressive, eh!

Because the Mounties said so

http://backofthebook.ca/2014/10/29/because-the-mounties-said-so/11274/

NorthReport

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NorthReport

Oh, oh, more bad news for the Liberals and especially Trudeau in a poll coming out today

Winston

NorthReport wrote:
Oh, oh, more bad news for the Liberals and especially Trudeau in a poll coming out today

How can you purport to know the results of polls that haven't yet been released?

nicky

Perhaps NR is referring to the goofy Nanos Power Index which came out today.

http://assets.nationalnewswatch.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Nanos-Pol...

 

I am hesitant to place much reliance on it but FWIW:

Over the past 4 weeks:

Trudeau down as best PM from 35.8 to 32.2%

Harper up from 28.3 to 29.3

Mulcair up from 17.8 to 19.8

Similar trends for party index and "would you consider?"

Hopefully NR has advance knowledge of some more reputable poll that has Justin falling to earth.

NorthReport

Obviously the question asked in this thread title has merit.

Trudeau losing to Harper and Mulcair on ‘terrorism’: Siddiqui

The debate over the use of the word “terrorism” is one of three key issues on which Trudeau has seemed lost, while Harper has set the agenda and Mulcair has offered credible alternatives.

http://www.thestar.com/opinion/commentary/2014/11/05/trudeau_losing_to_h...

NorthReport

Support for Trudeau has already been waning, and it may take an even bigger hit, particularly from women, once the details of his latest behaviour starts to permeate across the land.

What's being publicized in the media recently is makes me uncomfortable being part of the male gender. And as scary as it is, and yes sometimes it can be risky, males have to challenge other males' bad behaviour.

Mulcair says Trudeau revictimized women who made misconduct complaints

NDP Leader Tom Mulcair confirmed it was complaints from two NDP MPs that prompted Justin Trudeau to suspend MPs Scott Andrews and Massimo Pacetti.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2014/11/06/mulcair_says_trudeau_revic...

NorthReport

Favourable article on Trudeau coming out in Vanity Fair. 

I suppose this is another attempt to try and stop Trudeau's dropping support numbers in the polls.

NorthReport

Remember this - Garneau and Hall Findlay were more than a bit prophetic.

Trudeau defends experience, wealth as attacks turn personal

Former astronaut Marc Garneau took it upon himself to press Trudeau the most, accusing the son of former prime minister Pierre Trudeau of not having the necessary experience to be a national leader, and saying that “leadership is about more than being a motivational speaker.”

But it was fellow candidate and former MP Martha Hall Findlay’s seemingly personal swipe at Trudeau’s privileged upbringing in the closing minutes of the debate that had most people talking — and which may come back to haunt the Liberal party in a future Conservative attack ad.

Trudeau has made defending the middle-class a key tenet of his leadership campaign, even though he recently revealed to the Ottawa Citizen that his inheritance from his late father is now worth about $1.2 million, and he has built up a public-speaking business that earned him more than $450,000 in its best year.

Hall Findlay noted Trudeau’s wealth before attacking his credibility on defending average working Canadians.

“You keep referring to the middle-class,” Hall Findlay said. “You yourself have admitted that you actually don’t belong to the middle-class. I find it a little challenging to understand how you would understand the real challenges facing Canadians.”


http://www.thestarphoenix.com/news/national/Trudeau+defends+experience+w...

NorthReport

Just another Trudeau Liberals infomercial Laughing

Obviously not prime minister material, what would be the best role for Trudeau to play in Canada's future? 

Justin Trudeau the subject of a rare — for Canadian politicians — Vanity Fair profile

After setting up Canada’s 2015 federal election as a two-way race between Prime Minister Stephen Harper and the third-party leader, the profile briefly mentions Mr. Trudeau’s new memoir, Common Ground, suggesting he was taking a “page from [Barack] Obama’s playbook” — a reference to the U.S. president’s 1995 memoir Dreams from my Father.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/11/06/justin-trudeau-the-subject-of-a-...

NorthReport

It appears that Trudeau's problems are beginning to snowball, and he could could be taking the entire Liberal party downhill with him.

Mr. Trudeau’s maturity gap seems to be getting wider

Success in politics requires a wide range of skills. Identifying and implementing policies supported by a broad enough cross-section of the public to win elections is vitally important.

Having the right people in key senior positions is also crucial to the success and longevity of any government.

Behind it all is a quality that, while more amorphous, is likely far more important: an aura of competence. It’s the trump card any government plays when it seeks re-election, as Stephen Harper and the Conservatives did successfully in 2011. It’s the message that those in power have been there and done that and have the status, experience and visibility to govern well.

It’s difficult, but not impossible, for an opposition party to acquire that aura of competence; without it, a party and its leader stand little chance of replacing any government. Stockwell Day and the Canadian Alliance demonstrated that in 2000.

Perceptions of competence flow from an ability to not just come up with the right policies but to implement them successfully. That shortcoming is fast becoming an issue for Justin Trudeau and the Liberal party.


http://www.ipolitics.ca/2014/11/07/mr-trudeaus-maturity-gap-seems-to-be-...

NorthReport

Here comes the Sun King: Running a party the Trudeau way

L’etat, c’est moi. 

http://www.ipolitics.ca/2014/11/10/here-comes-the-sun-king-the-trudeau-s...

NorthReport

Same ole sleazy politics - nothing new here, there's nothing progressive here, nor has there been, in a long, long time.

Liberal supporter says nomination convention left 'horrible taste'

Theresa Blackburn says she saw party members pressured into voting for winning nominee T.J. Harvey

A woman who signed up to support the federal Liberals says she's through with federal politics after seeing the process up close.             

Theresa Blackburn, a Woodstock town councillor who attended the recent Tobique-Mactaquac nominating convention, says that what she witnessed was a disappointment and she wants nothing to do with party politics.              

"It leaves with you with a horrible taste in your mouth."              

Blackburn attended the Nov. 1 convention to pick a federal Liberal candidate — her first-ever involvement.   

She says she saw supporters of winning nominee T.J. Harvey pressure party members into voting for him.              

That echoes complaints by candidate Rick Lafrance — a school teacher who Blackburn supported, and who lost the nomination race to Harvey.

 

Lafrance has filed a formal complaint with the Liberal party over alleged paperwork improprieties and other tactics.

 


http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/liberal-supporter-says-nomin...

NorthReport

Trudeau is less popular as Leader than the so-called unpopular Harper. 

How could this be?

It is beginning to look like not only is the honeymoon over for Trudeau but also that Canadians want to divorce the Trudeau Liberals.

Harper numerically surpasses Trudeau in preferred PM on Nanos tracking for first time in four months - Nanos Weekly Tracking (ending November 7, 2014)

http://nanosresearch.com/main.asp

Pondering

I don't see why you are surprised NR.  Debater has been predicting this forever.

Harper    32.1       +2.8

Trudeau  29.5%    - 2.7

Mulcair   19.5       - 0.3

This is the change in numbers from October 31st to November 7th but based on a four week rolling average. These numbers contain the reaction to military involvement with ISIS, , the murders of our soldiers, news on coming budget promises, Mulcair's daycare promise and the release of Trudeau's book. Trudeau suspended MPs on November 5th. Given that this is a four week rolling average it will take a week or two before we would be likely to see any impact.

 

The graph is on page 31

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/Nanos%20Political%20Index%202...

Whatever it is my analysis says Mulcair is doing very poorly. He didn't drop much because he didn't have far to go. I expected at least a bit of a bump for the daycare plan. It got lots of positive press. Maybe it's hiding in the four week average but it seems unlikely that it would be delayed into next week's numbers.

I think Trudeau is going to turn his numbers around based on cooling enthusiasm for bombing ISIS and his suspension of the Liberal MPs. Next week will be level or beginning to rise. Looking at the graph Trudeau dropped lower than this a year ago and was close to it in May/June 2013. He is about even with his July dip. I expect these fluctuations to continue until he releases his platform. I am most disappointed in the rise of Harper and the seeming lack of bump for daycare which sends the message it isn't that important.

I guess Brachina will be happy as she prefers Harper to Trudeau.

terrytowel

Considering the propaganda machine from the Cons 1) Negative Ads against Trudeau 2) Pro-Stephen Harper ads 3) Economic action ads, 10 percenters, and tons of local media with MP and them dropping money in ridings.

All of that money they are throwing at marketing the Con party, and they can only get a 2% percentage ahead of Trudeau?

NorthReport

Trudeau is less popular as Leader than the so-called unpopular Harper. 

How could this be?

It is beginning to look like not only is the honeymoon over for Trudeau but also that Canadians want a divorce from the Trudeau Liberals

Harper numerically surpasses Trudeau in preferred PM on Nanos tracking for first time in four months - Nanos Weekly Tracking (ending November 7, 2014)

http://nanosresearch.com/main.asp

NorthReport

What about Garneau or Brison?

In hindsight don't you think one of those would have been better choice for Liberal Leader?

Many Liberals may be thinking the same thing these days, eh.

Pondering

NorthReport wrote:

What about Garneau or Brison?

In hindsight don't you think one of those would have been better choice for Liberal Leader?

Many Liberals may be thinking the same thing these days, eh.

LOL, not a chance! The Liberals are still in the lead as a party and Trudeau still has a massive lead on Mulcair. If you think the Liberals should be concerned you should be desperate to get rid of Mulcair.

NorthReport

Are you sure about that as it is Trudeau that has been trending down, down, down, and it is the trend that matters most.

And of course now Trudeau is not longer the front-runner, so Trudeau's halo is now off, and Trudeau will not be fawned over nearly as much as Trudeau has been up to now.

Personally I think Harper is one shrewd politician and the only one who has a chance of bringing Harper down is Mulcair. Good looking and nice hair yes, I'll grant you that, but Trudeau does not appear to have the royal jelly to be PM. Just my point of view.

Harper surpasses Trudeau on preferred PM front in Nanos tracking

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/nanos-on-the-numbers/harper-surpasses-tru...

NorthReport

And now with Trudeau's polling continuing to head South, it may well be a forerunner to Liberal election chances which appear to be dimishing day-by-day, week-by-week, month by month, over the recent past few months.

Stephen Harper uses terror threat to tee up for election: Walkom

Militant patriotism is a powerful political force. So are government cheques. Combined, the two can be irresistible.

 

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2014/11/11/stephen_harper_uses_terror...

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1,700

nicky

Ever since Justin became Liberal leader the polls have consistently shown that his standing in Quebec is lower than in any other province with the occasional exception of Alberta.

In Quebec he has lower positives, higher negatives and a low score as preferred PM, particulary contrasted to Mulcair.

Yet Justin is from Quebec and presents himself as a native son. So why the low numbers? I think it is because Quebec is the province that knows him best (as well as the province that knows Mulcair best).

As Trudeau becomes better known in TROC and more people realize he is not the reincarnation of his father his numbers will likley tumble. The inverse may well happen with Mulcair.

 

scott16

There's a documentary coming out about Justin Trudeau. I wonder what the Liberals think about this.

http://o.canada.com/news/politics-and-the-nation/new-justin-trudeau-docu...

Pondering

scott16 wrote:

There's a documentary coming out about Justin Trudeau. I wonder what the Liberals think about this.

http://o.canada.com/news/politics-and-the-nation/new-justin-trudeau-docu...

Thanks that is terrific! Your link led to this:

http://quebec.huffingtonpost.ca/2014/11/12/god-save-justin-trudeau-au-no...

...which is an interview with the filmmakers.

They dropped their other film projects to go watch the Brazeau match because they were taken with the potential for political metaphor. They saw Trudeau winning as transformational. He rose so fast that they wondered if he was akin to the emperor with no clothes. One of the producers says Justin Trudeau is a good well-intentioned man, he just doesn't know if he can run the country.

They did complain that he wouldn't share his thoughts on policy no matter how hard they tried. But that there is something transparent about him, his strengths can be seen.

The article closes saying that Trudeau exhibits a rare confidence and is no lightweight.

I imagine they question his lack of policy throughout the film, that is the big question, but it's not one he has to answer before the election. Right now he is just establishing his character so that when he does release his policy people will have confidence in him and the attack ads will be rendered harmless.

It seems NDP supporters are banking on Trudeau's weaknesses being exposed while I believe it is his strengths that will be revealed.

Just watch him.

P.S. I've come to love this thread title. It's going to become more and more amusing as time goes by.

nicky

There are two routes open for Justin Trudeau:

1. His limitations will be revealed before the election and he will self-destruct.

2. His limitations will be hidden until after the next election. They will be revealed only in government and he will self-destruct then, like Bill Vander Zalm.

Stockholm

There is another possibility (perhaps the likeliest)

His limitations will be partially revealed in the election campaign and yet he will gain a lot of seats and we will be in an unpredictable minority situation - perhaps one where the CPC still has a plurality of seats and where Justin has to be a player in an elaborate chess game with Mulcair and Harper - and he will be totally unequal to the task and will self-destruct not running a government but in the post-election period when all cards are on the table. 

nicky

Stockholm, what makes you think that Gerald Butts would not play his hand of cards skillfully?

Stockholm

If you think Gerald Butts plays his cards that skillfully - then I suppose he could manipulate Justin Trudeau like a puppet during the campaign and also if he ever became PM...but its been proven again and again that you can have the best advisors in the world - but ultimately the buck stops with the leader and there is only so much you can do with having Svengali whispering in your ear.

NorthReport

Another day, another Liberal scandal it seems.

What is Trudeau afraid of?

Liberals block rival, clear nomination path for Trudeau star Andrew Leslie

http://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2014/11/16/liberals-block-rival-clear-n...

Pondering

NorthReport wrote:

Another day, another Liberal scandal it seems.

What is Trudeau afraid of?

Liberals block rival, clear nomination path for Trudeau star Andrew Leslie

http://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2014/11/16/liberals-block-rival-clear-n...

Quote:

However, Bertschi had been warned, along with other failed leadership contenders, that he would not be allowed to seek a nomination unless he could demonstrate significant progress reducing his leadership campaign debt of $150,000.

Party insiders said Bertschi's debt was one of two reasons his candidacy was blocked. The other involved his failure to disclose a defamation suit he launched in 2013 against an American gossip website but subsequently abandoned.

Seems reasonable to me.

DLivings

MegB wrote:

bagkitty wrote:

@unionist.... I thought he was born in a manger in Judea... and that he will demonstrate his waterwalking abilities in the forthcoming election.

Damn, I wish there were a "like" button.

me too!

NorthReport

Trudeau's popularity as fleeting as a comet?

For the first time I’m wondering whether Justin Trudeau has any plan at all. I used to think he would say nothing and then, when the time is right, roll out policy that would establish his credibility as a serious player. That better happen soon, because in the meantime he is positioning himself as the understudy to Thomas Mulcair.

In the last three months he has had dozens of opportunities to be seen as the hard-nosed critic on the economy, trade or national security, and in every case it was Mulcair, not Trudeau, who looked like the alternative to the government. When Trudeau started blabbing about ISIS and blankets and winter survival tips, Mulcair looked like a prime minister in waiting.

Yes, Trudeau is still doing well in the polls but he is steadily slipping, and an election is now less than a year away. He should take his cue from the Europeans and land quickly on something solid. But that takes planning and time is fleeting.


http://www.torontosun.com/2014/11/16/trudeaus-popularity-as-fleeting-as-...

NorthReport

So can we now bury Forum, one of the Liberal polling fronts? 

By-Election Shocker! Conservatives retain Whitby-Oshawa  Laughing

By the time all the ballots were counted Monday night, former Whitby mayor Pat Perkins held Whitby-Oshawa for the Conservative Party with nearly 50% of the vote.

You could be forgiven for thinking this result was unlikely, given the extent to which Liberal talking points penetrated the media's pre-game analysis, egged on by some torqued analysis from the only pollster willing to give away his work for free anymore.


http://www.punditsguide.ca/2014/11/by-election-shocker-conservatives-ret...

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

Trudeau's popularity as fleeting as a comet?

For the first time I’m wondering whether Justin Trudeau has any plan at all. I used to think he would say nothing and then, when the time is right, roll out policy that would establish his credibility as a serious player. That better happen soon, because in the meantime he is positioning himself as the understudy to Thomas Mulcair.

In the last three months he has had dozens of opportunities to be seen as the hard-nosed critic on the economy, trade or national security, and in every case it was Mulcair, not Trudeau, who looked like the alternative to the government. When Trudeau started blabbing about ISIS and blankets and winter survival tips, Mulcair looked like a prime minister in waiting.

Yes, Trudeau is still doing well in the polls but he is steadily slipping, and an election is now less than a year away. He should take his cue from the Europeans and land quickly on something solid. But that takes planning and time is fleeting.


http://www.torontosun.com/2014/11/16/trudeaus-popularity-as-fleeting-as-...

When you lose Monte Solberg, what hope is there?

NorthReport

Solberg is correct in stating that Trudeau is steadily slipping in the polls.

Today's Nanos polling is another confirmation of that, showing Trudeau losing another full point to Mulcair on the Preferred PM category.

NorthReport

And that is what we get, zero substance, just more Liberal spin, day-in, day-out, in ever media outlet possible including here at babble.

The two recent ex-Liberal MPs are another case in point. Women have been abused, and the Liberals attack the NDP.

By-Election Shocker! Conservatives retain Whitby-Oshawa

By the time all the ballots were counted Monday night, former Whitby mayor Pat Perkins held Whitby-Oshawa for the Conservative Party with nearly 50% of the vote.

You could be forgiven for thinking this result was unlikely, given the extent to which Liberal talking points penetrated the media's pre-game analysis, egged on by some torqued analysis from the only pollster willing to give away his work for free anymore.

-------------------------------------

Conservative standard-bearer Perkins in fact exceeded the vote-share with which Jim Flaherty first wrested the riding away from Liberal MP Judi Longfield in 2006. Perkins finished the evening last night with 49.2% of the vote, as against the 43.9% earned by the beloved former Finance Minister in 2006. Her performance even exceeded Flaherty's 2008 vote-share – in the peak of the economic collapse whose handling won Flaherty international acclaim – though if you look at the raw votes, that was only because so many Liberals stayed home that year.

------------------------------------------------------

The Conservatives' victory Monday was also notable given the effort made in particular by the Liberals to turn the by-election into a referndum on the Prime Minister's commitment to income-splitting, a policy whose redistributive impacts were criticized by Flahery in his final interviews as Finance Minister.

The Liberals certainly put in a herculean effort on the campaign, which paid off in a restored vote share and second-place standing as against their nemeses in the NDP (which presciently downplayed both its campaign efforts and expectations ahead of time).

Yet even draining the NDP of all but its most core base vote in this typical red-blue race in the 905 East, the Liberals were unable to pass the Conservatives, who again confounded Forum Research as they had done so many other pollsters in Ontario during the last federal election campaign with a substantial ballot-box bonus.

In other words, even though the Liberals have been successful in completely rebooting their field operations and adopting more modern campaign techniques for voter targeting, identification and GOTV, the Conservative ground game is still superior in Ontario and well capable of getting the job done, in spite of the Liberals' superior penetration of the media spin game.

 

 

http://www.punditsguide.ca/2014/11/by-election-shocker-conservatives-ret...

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