We're kind of getting off-track here. The bottom line is that it's remarkable how well the Liberals did in that riding last year considering that it's a riding that has only voted Liberal in modern history in 1993 when there was a right-wing split.
The bigger question is why the NDP vote collapsed in that riding, and in Provencher. The NDP had finished ahead of the Liberals in both those ridings under Layton.
The NDP vote in Provencher was higher than what it was in 1997 and 2000, when the NDP won four seats in Manitoba. Also, the NDP only overtook the Liberals in Provencher in the 2011 and 2008 ridings.
The NDP vote in Brandon-Souris collapsed due to the media and pollster incorrectly speculating the Liberals could win. That party's success in that riding is almost certainly due tot he fact that the Liberals ran the son of the longtime and beloved PC MP for Brandon-Souris. Now that Disndale is no longer intrested in running for the Liberals again due to Trudeau's interference in nominations, look for the party's vote in Brandon-Souris to fall off a cliff in 2015.