Newfoundland NDP Leader Facing Revolt?

UPDATE: Michael steps down, says party needs new leadership to grow

(Video of Michael's appearance before the media today:)

http://www.thetelegram.com/News/Local/2015-01-06/article-3997797/UPDATE%...

[/quote] She says she's running again but I doubt it'll happen. Her polling numbers in her district are supposedly not great but a new leader could probably hold the seat.[/quote]

Not sure where you get the idea that Michael has poor polling numbers in her district. She has had the strongest election results of the three New Democtrats who have held the seat and is widely perceived to be unbeatable in her district. 

Island Red wrote:

She says she's running again but I doubt it'll happen. Her polling numbers in her district are supposedly not great but a new leader could probably hold the seat.[/quote]

Not sure where you get the idea that Michael has poor polling numbers in her district. She has had the strongest election results of the three New Democtrats who have held the seat and is widely perceived to be unbeatable in her district. 

[/quote]

I've seen this mentioned on twitter by journalists. Liberals have been doing polling in many districts and the results they've recieved in Signal Hill Qudi Vidi are supposedly good. Whether that's true or not we'll have to wait and see but currently there are at least three people vying to be the Liberal candidate. And her personal numbers have changed dramatically over the last year.

OK, you got what you wanted, Newfoundlander.  Now let's see if ANY good comes of it.  I assume you want Cleary to take over...so please explain why he shouldn't be seen are representing the extreme right wing of the party-why a Cleary-led NNDP should still be considered worth voting for.

I've tried to research the guy, but ALL I've found on him was his attack on the party for supposedly being too "granola" when Layton, of all people, was still leading it in 2011.  

 

Earle McCurdy - who was preisdent of the Fish Food and Allied Workers Union up until last month - has said he will consider a leadership bid and is expected to enter the race. McCurdy would make things very interesting. McCurdy is a household name in Newfoundland and Labrador after serving 22 years as president of the FFAW, which represents 12,000 workers in the province. An election is expected to be called this Spring so having someone of McCurdy's profile leading the party would be a big benefit for the NDP. While I have seen his named listed as a donor to the party I don't know if he has been involved with them besides that. While McCurdy has had his disputes with government over policies I can't remember him ever wading into partisan politics. I don't if not being active in the party would hurt his chances or not. 

McCurdy remained a steadfast supporter of the NDP during the years of Buzz Hargrove and the CAW's dance with Paul Martin - the FFAW was part of the CAW. He has played a significant role in crafting NL NDP policies pertinent to rural Newfoundland and Labrador and has been a longtime advisor to the party. McCurdy would bring depth and substance to NL politics - something in precious short supply - while also offering genuine electoral credibility. Dwight Ball and the Liberal caucus did not have a good day, and their supposed easy ride to government seems to have hit some turbulence. 

The Newfoundland Liberals are going down the same road as the BCNDP last election.

I'm pretty impressed with the possibility of Earle McCurdy running.

The story of the next Federal election hasn't even started yet.

can a newfoundlander tell me about Earle McCurdy and how well known to Newfoundlanders is he? Could he right the ship so to speak?

Jan, I know you are a dyed in the wool NDPer, but come on.  The NDP is at 21% nationally right now - that's not much higher than prior to 2011.

Most significantly, those numbers are worse than what Stéphane Dion & Michael Ignatieff had when they were Official Opposition!

The point is that the Official Opposition is supposed to be at least 2nd nationally, and ideally 1st if it wants to form Government.

I don't get why NDP spin doctors keep claiming that because the NDP is doing somewhat better than it was when it was a 3rd/4th party, everything is fine & dandy.

That would be like the Liberals claiming that because they are at 35%, they are home free to forming government.  Of course they're not.  The Liberals are doing well right now, but it's not as if they are at 40% or 45%.

VOCM News:

Earl McCurdy will announce at 11 at the Ramada that he will seek the NDP Leadership.

https://twitter.com/VOCMNEWS/status/554991506948644864

scott16 wrote:

What are the NDP's chances if Earle McCurdy is elected leader?

He's likely the most credible candidate possible. Not sure how much of an impact he'll make but he could potentially increase their support a bit. While he's a household name in the province it's difficult to know how popular he is. He represented a lot of people as FFAW president, but he definitely had battles with his own members over the years.

Sounds like Cleary isn't planning to go provincial if he's supporting McCurdy.

Guess he's staying federal and hoping his own popularity in Saint John's South-Mount Pearl can overcome the low numbers Mulcair has in the province.

The House of Assembly is opening this Monday to debate legisaltion on cutting the number of seats in the province by 10 before the next election. Although she has previosuly said she'd support redcuing the number of seats by a similar amount, Lorraien Michael says the NDP will filibuster the bill. 

The announcement of the cut in seats is being well recieved by the public. Although academic types are critical of the move. Will be interesting to see how it plays out and what impact it will eventually have on each party in the election.

To save money.

It also seems weird to make such a drastic change to the electoral map when an election is so imminent. Usually a new map should struck with years to go in a mandate so that parties and candidates can adjust. This seems very fly by night

Stockholm wrote:

It also seems weird to make such a drastic change to the electoral map when an election is so imminent. Usually a new map should struck with years to go in a mandate so that parties and candidates can adjust. This seems very fly by night

Yes.  Something I can agree with you on.

It seems very unusual (perhaps unprecedented?) for a government to make major changes to the seat distribution a few months before an election.  Particularly by a government that is behind in the polls and looks like it will lose.  Is this a desperate attempt to save the NFLD PC's?

The leadership "race" seems to be shaping up as a coronation for Earle McCurdy so far, doesn't it? 

If anything it's more beneficial for the NDP. The reduction of seats will come from rural areas and the NDP are a St. John's based party. If the NDP are able to make some gains under McCurdy and hold onto their St. John's seats then they'll be better represented in a 40 seat legislature. 

ajay is paid by the NDP to make the Liberals look bad.

He sounds like a thoughtful and principled guy, but maybe not the strongest political organizer or at least not someone with a strong team behind him (collecting 1000 signatures to register a new party shouldn't be [b]that[/b] hard, on the other hand if the Green brand is really that toxic in NL maybe he should have been savvy enough to realize it beforehand). Ordinarily I'd be a pretty skeptical of someone who quit the party a year ago only to come back when the leadership opens up, but I recognize that the situation in NL in the past year has been a special case. On the other hand I can't imagine that it would well be received if Dale Kirby or Chris Mitchelmore tried to "re-cross" back to the NDP and run for the leadership now.

Does Bruce have a chance? 

robbie_dee wrote:

He sounds like a thoughtful and principled guy, but maybe not the strongest political organizer or at least not someone with a strong team behind him (collecting 1000 signatures to register a new party shouldn't be [b]that[/b] hard, on the other hand if the Green brand is really that toxic in NL maybe he should have been savvy enough to realize it beforehand). Ordinarily I'd be a pretty skeptical of someone who quit the party a year ago only to come back when the leadership opens up, but I recognize that the situation in NL in the past year has been a special case. On the other hand I can't imagine that it would well be received if Dale Kirby or Chris Mitchelmore tried to "re-cross" back to the NDP and run for the leadership now.

Does Bruce have a chance? 

Not a chance in hell. No offence to him, but he's an unknown 26 year old who's running against a man who's a houshold name in the province. While a race is usually the best thing for parties, the NDP would have been better off having McCudry acclaimed then having Bruce as his only challenger. We'll probably hear more from him as the race progresses but the big thing Bruce is promoting in his bid is stopping corporatations and unions from making political donations. While it's an important matter, it's hardly a pressing issue in the province. I can only imagine that Bruce's candidacy will also alienate a lot of people in the party too.

Basement Dweller wrote:

You have to wonder if Kirby and Mitchelmore are kicking themselves right now. Oh well, that's what happens when you listen to Liberals 

Edit to add:

It's funny how the Liberals may have hurt themselves by wooing Kirby and Mitchelmore. It probably hastened the exit of Michael and caused the entrance of McCurdy.

The Liberals gained a considerable amount of support after Kirby and Mitchelmore's crossed. As well, both sat as independents for a period of time after they left the NDP caucus - and then they were kicked out of the party - so the damage to Lorraine Michael's leadership was done before they ever joined the Liberals. Even if they had decided to remain independents it's unlikely that Lorraine would have survived.

Newfoundlander_Labradorian wrote:

robbie_dee wrote:

Does Bruce have a chance? 

Not a chance in hell. No offence to him, but he's an unknown 26 year old who's running against a man who's a houshold name in the province. While a race is usually the best thing for parties, the NDP would have been better off having McCudry acclaimed then having Bruce as his only challenger. We'll probably hear more from him as the race progresses but the big thing Bruce is promoting in his bid is stopping corporatations and unions from making political donations. While it's an important matter, it's hardly a pressing issue in the province. I can only imagine that Bruce's candidacy will also alienate a lot of people in the party too.

Does he even have the resources to seriously campaign? As I understand the rules he's got to pony up $1,000 to register which I assume he's prepared to do, with a further campaign spending limit of $25,000. I expect that McCurdy can muster the latter funds but that's a fair amoung of dough for an "unknown 26 year old" unless he's got backers.

[url=http://www.vocm.com/newsarticle.asp?mn=2&id=52521&latest=1]Three-way Race for NDP Leadership (VOCM)[/url]

Quote:

Three candidates have been confirmed for the provincial NDP Leadership race. At yesterday's deadline, Party President Kathleen Connors announced that it's going to be a three-way race between Chris Bruce, Mike Goosney and Earle McCurdy.   The leadership vote will be conducted on a one member, one vote basis and the convention is set for March 7th at the Sheraton in St.John's.