Federal Election, 2015 - Seat Predictions

Stockholm wrote:

Actually in the '04, '06 and '08 elections the Tories only got 34-36% of the vote in BC. they got 46% in '11 but I think they will lose a ton of votes to the Liberals

BC Con popular vote share:

2011 - 46%

2008 - 44%

2006 - 37%

The Libs back in 2006 had a blue Lib Martin as leader, which resonated with many Con-Lib switchers as many still were not comfortable with the Harper Cons. OTOH Herr Trudeau comes across as somewhat more as a red Lib IMHO than a blue Lib. The Cons advertising "JT is not ready to lead" will likely resonate with these folk during an election campaign.

But yep, within the City of Vancouver proper itself the Cons will bleed alot of former Con voters to the Libs after the Lib collapse in 2011. More natural Lib turf. One reason the Cons will lose Vancouver South. And in neighbouring North Van and Richmond, the Cons will also bleed former Con voters to the Libs as well. Only likely impact is the loss of North Vancouver to the Libs though. Elsewhere not as much bleeding and will not impact seat results IMHO.

 

I haven't posted anything for a while, so here is my prediction for 2015;

148 Cons
110 Libs
70 NDP
10 other

Cons would then govern with support from the Libs for one or two years. This gives Trudeau time to learn to look and act like a PM and Harper time to resign.

Soon after the Cons pick a new leader, the Libs will force an election, get a majority and form the government, probably in 2017.

Me, I'll vote NDP as usual and hope for the best. 

gadar wrote:

war on workers, first nations, minorities etc will continue. More people will lose rights. Police will get more powers. Democracy will be weakened further. People who think that their privileges are not threatened by the Cons will shrug their shoulders, irrespctive of the party they belong to. They will then go on to do the post mortem of the election.

Some will blame the NDP for vote splitting, others will blame Liberals for the vote splitting. Harpers integrity, strength, and tactical acumen will be praised. It will all be the fault of Trudeaus hair. Some will gloat and strut around saying that they had been saying that the pretty boy wasnt upto it and conveniently ignore that the former liberal was also on the losing side. Others will question their enthusiasm at the election results. Others like me will be disgusted by the results and swear to stay away from it all in the future, but will be back after about an year....

I am hoping I will be wrong about this.

 

Well aren't we Mr. Sunshine today.

I don’t like to make predictions like this, as I have said before what going to happen in 2015 is not a game or a horse race. This election might well be one of the most pivotal in our history; whether we chose to build Canada in to something truly great or accept the mediocrity of the past and the lowest common denominator of the present.  Whether to make our nation into a beacon of hope and progress for a world slowly descending into the dark or continue down the path of hypocrisy and ignorance.

 

Nothing is set in stone and the election is still to come, it's on our shoulders to make the world we want. If you fear for the future now is the time to stand up and fight for change, now is the time to join a campaign, donate your time and money, enlist volunteers and start canvasing.

 

Look up, march forward and above all remember Courage my friends, 'tis not too late to build a better world

Agreed.  Great post Marco.

PrairieDemocrat15 wrote:

janfromthebruce wrote:

Actually Trudeau comes across as a blue liberal and is wholly backed by the blue Martin Liberal faction.

Agreed. I have no idea what makes Centrist think Trudeau is a left-leaning Liberal.

Because he supports legalization But economic say he is as right as Martin, that is to say further to the right then Michael Wilson under Mulroney

PrairieDemocrat15 wrote:

Agreed. I have no idea what makes Centrist think Trudeau is a left-leaning Liberal.

I guess I better clarify myself. I view Paul Martin, John Manley Frank MacKenna et al as "blue" Libs. IOW, austerity budgets, lower taxes, and the rest of that right-wing mantra.

My impression of Herr Trudeau is that he is not one from their ilk eg. does not preach austerity budgets or lower taxes (AFAIK) and leans the other way towards "red" Libs. Better should have said that he gives me the impression that he lies somewhere in-between. What he actually stands for I have absolutely no idea. Perhaps free national hair care?

Centrist wrote:

What he actually stands for I have absolutely no idea. Perhaps free national hair care?

Heh.

Jacob Two-Two wrote:

I don't think Justin is anything per se. Meaning, I think he'll take whatever positions are expedient to him at the moment, and then change them just as quick. It's just vastly more likely that the expedient course will always be to follow his austerity mentors and do what they tell him to.

A puppet.

*delete*

mark_alfred wrote:

I'm sticking with the same predictions I made quite some time ago:

http://rabble.ca/babble/canadian-politics/federal-election-2015-predictions

Why stick to the same seat predictions you made nearly 2 years ago?  I don't get it.  A lot has changed since then.  For one thing, the NDP is in a much weaker position now than it was 2 years ago.  In early 2013, the NDP could make an argument that they were the primary alternative to Harper - that's certainly no longer the case now after the past 2 years of polling & by-election results.

As Chantal Hébert wrote last month, it is the Liberals who are now clearly the main alternative to the Harper Conservatives and who enter 2015 in a much stronger position than the NDP.

Shouldn't seat predictions be something that we regularly update each year as circumstances change?

the popularity of premier dix of bc, premier horwath of ontario, and premier dexter combined with the popularity of premier selinger of manitoba will start a tidal wave, tRudeau is toast!

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

I thought there was a Liberal bias but when I went looking for it I really could not find evidence of that. The bias is the use of polling to inform the result (by distant observers) rather than local information contrary to the state purpose of the site.

Actually, you might as well include Milton Chan himself in that hierarchy of "distant observers"; because he's central in making the final judgment.  (And to be honest: if it were all about "local information", it's more than likely that a lot of those hinterland seats would have no entries at all.)

Probably the bigger issue is when the EPP entries/info is accumulated over a considerable length of time (i.e. before it's clear what the final pattern'd be); as well as the quality of the individual contributors (i.e. the present early-going "Craig Hubley" problem--look: turning an Etobicoke North entry into a long shill for Kirsty Duncan without *at all* making reference to the seat being the political heart of Ford Nation; if *anything* embodies Sean of Ottawa's "distant observers" dillemma, *that* does)

The Cons are going to win this election as they are on track to winning the most seats

The only question, majority or minority.

So the Cons are halfway there.

We can only pray that they get a minority.

terrytowel wrote:

The Cons are going to win this election as they are on track to winning the most seats

The only question, majority or minority.

So the Cons are halfway there.

We can only pray that they get a minority.

The only way the Cons get a minority is if the Liberals vote to keep them in power.

Another thing to keep in mind re EPP and erring on the side of caution: more often than not, "Too Close" is code language for "endangered/threatened incumbent seat".  Which often aren't "called" until the electoral ducks start to sort themselves out t/w the end of the campaign.

From this source I get :

The NDP is down everywhere compared to 2011, including in Quebec. However, thanks to the Bloc staying below 20% and the Liberals down as well (compared to their level after Trudeau became the Liberal leader), they'd still easily win the most seats in la Belle Province. This alone guarantees that the NDP wouldn't collapse completely or go back to its pre-2011 level (despite not being polled a lot higher than in the past!).

So NDP is at 23, where its been for years. Hahahaha .

adma wrote:

ajaykumar wrote:

So NDP is at 23, where its been for years. Hahahaha .

Actually, by pre-Orange Crush standards (to say nothing of the Audrey/Alexa-era doldrums), 23 would have been overachievingly impressive.  Just saying.

NDP got 19% in 1988. NDP hasn't achieved 23% yet under Mulcair. Polls are unreliable. NDP is actually somewhere around 76% currently. I think in the campaign NDP will get+ 10 to 86%. 300 seats for the NDP is doable. Tories will get 35 seats. Lib will be doomed.

ajaykumar wrote:

adma wrote:

ajaykumar wrote:

So NDP is at 23, where its been for years. Hahahaha .

Actually, by pre-Orange Crush standards (to say nothing of the Audrey/Alexa-era doldrums), 23 would have been overachievingly impressive.  Just saying.

NDP got 19% in 1988. NDP hasn't achieved 23% yet under Mulcair. Polls are unreliable. NDP is actually somewhere around 76% currently. I think in the campaign NDP will get+ 10 to 86%. 300 seats for the NDP is doable. Tories will get 35 seats. Lib will be doomed.

Ajaykumar, you speak of the NDP as if it were some ungrateful ex-wife extorting you for alimony or something.  Just saying.