Justin Trudeau: Is he actually going to be a drag on the Liberal 2015 election chances?

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clambake

Pondering wrote:

ajaykumar wrote:
I don't appreciate being called a paid liberal troll. I voted for the NDP in 2011. I do support Trudeau now, because of his father,I wouldn't have been able to come to Canada. I have a general disliking for politicians like Mulcair, who are in this for themselves (career politicians, him being a lawyer doesn't help his case). He tried from 2011-2013 to paint himself as a centrist,but when the ondp lost, he suddenly realized that he was a left-winger. I'll support Trudeau until he too turns into a career politician.

Don't mind them. It's sour grapes. I voted NDP in 2011 too.

Yeah, pardon me for having 'sour grapes' for not wanting the Liberals to govern again after they allowed greenhouse gases to rise and inequality to grow under their watch.

trotwood73

ajaykumar wrote:

Mulcair never revealed how he'll pay for the $15 daycare. Also, the provinces are to come up with 40%!!!!!!!! good luck with that. he just came up with $15 because its 2015. How the heck is daycare going to create badly needed jobs? In order to send your kid to daycare you need a JOB!!!!!!!!!!!!

Oy vey! Give me strength! The Tediously Repetitive and Obtuse Liberal Loving Supporters are trying my patience.....

I could waste my time (that's probably your goal) explaining how the economy works, how jobs and small businesses are created, and how income taxes are generated and return to the government to pay for public services. But I won't. The incoherence and inconsistencies of some of your latest posts lead me to believe that whatever I write, the gist of your response would be "Muclair sucks!".

But I will keep it simple for you by giving empirical evidence. Here in Quebec, we have have government subsidized daycare since 1997. The Université de Sherbrooke published a study on the economic effects of this program. Here's a Google translation of part of their conclusions:

"Finally we compared the tax return program cost. In 2008, after taking into account the reduced use of the refundable tax credit for child care expenses Quebec, we estimated at just over $ 1.6 billion net cost of the subsidy to custody paid by the Government of Quebec. This allowed us to conclude that the direct feedback from the static effect of the reduced contribution childcare program has led to the federal and Quebec, by financial benefits to cover 31% of the cost net. Moreover, when we add the dynamic effect of the program to its static effect and we believe the overall budgetary feedback (not just direct), we find that it did better than pay for itself. The net expense of $ 1.6 billion of Quebec has created a positive feedback budget of $ 2.4 billion for the two administrations, or $ 1.7 billion for Quebec and $ 0.7 billion for Ottawa. In other words, each grant $ 100 from the Quebec government to guard gave it a tax return $ 104 and made a gift of $ 43 to the federal government."

 

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

It is incomprehensible that having "government administrative experience" would not make you qualified to be Prime Minister. 

It seems like people are projecting whatever they want onto Trudeau. They are assuming he will make the right decisions for them. Why did the Liberal Party only name him critic for Amateur Fitness and Sport?

Trudeau would have heard an earful of contempt of Parliament from his own father. Trudeau Sr.'s contempt of Parliament was well-known.

Harper managed to be censured for contempt of Parliament, for the first time in the history of any Parliament anywhere. Trudeau's decisions will be made in the same vein. Contempt for what little democracy we do have is not very nice.

And again, more flippant comments, "The budget will balance itself". Flippancy is not a sign of good judgement.

 

Aristotleded24

ajaykumar wrote:
How the heck is daycare going to create badly needed jobs?

Expanding daycare spaces provides jobs for people to work in daycares, whether they make a career out of it or use it as a stepping stone to do something else.

Marco C

 

 

Pondering wrote:

Regardless of how you cut it the measure of a politician is in his or her ability to win support and to get elected. Trudeau's name won him attention but it didn't win him election in his riding or election as leader and if he becomes PM it is not why. To claim his only strengths are his name or his appearance is a cop-out.

That Ignatieff was a man of superior formal intellect did not make him a suitable Prime Minister for Canada. Nor does Mulcair's formal intellect or government administrative experience.

Trudeau's highest marks are in shared values. If Trudeau wins the election it will be because Canadians believe he will make the choices they would under similar circumstances.

 

WOW a sensable posting... I am suprised.

 

-On the first point I have to agree, but I think there is good evidence to say that his last name was the most important factor in his electoral victories, just not the sole factor. That being said I think claims that JT is all smiles and hair is a valid criticism of his bid to run the country, the fact is he has not shown any depth of character and made no stand on matters of substance is telling and disappointing, especially since I'm only 10 years younger them him, I would expect better.

You don't agree with my beliefs but you have to believe in and stand for something and I don't see JT or the LPC doing either with the exception of getting elected.

 

-On the second point I would agree, formal education and training do not make a leader, but it helps. However there is a huge difference between Ignatieff & JT and Mulcair. The first two had and have almost no experience in government or in policy making or in any kind of leadership position aside from teaching. Tom on the other hand has been in politics for 30 years, he has been part of a ruling government and a cabinet minister in his career, it's that kind of experience and education that is needed in the next PM.

 

-On your last point I have to wholly disagree, what you’re saying is nothing more than an empty talking point. Firstly JT had no shared values with Canadians because he hasn't told us what his values are -aside from the Go Canada Go! values that all the leader have. Second very statement that somehow JT (and thus the LPC) have shared values implies that only their values are valid, which is poppycock. Last I checked most Canadians are more than happy to see higher taxes on corporations, which is not the stated intent of the LPC is their attack add against the NPD is any indication.

Pondering

Marco C wrote:
-On the first point I have to agree, but I think there is good evidence to say that his last name was the most important factor in his electoral victories, just not the sole factor.

It wasn't the most important factor. All it gave him was name recognition and a sympathetic hearing. Once he had the attention he had to prove himself and still does to many people.

Marco C wrote:
That being said I think claims that JT is all smiles and hair is a valid criticism of his bid to run the country, the fact is he has not shown any depth of character and made no stand on matters of substance.... 

Except that simply isn't true. He has not released a platform which is absolutely normal at this stage especially for a party that isn't even the official opposition. If you don't know any of the positions he has taken you just aren't up on politics.

Marco C wrote:
Tom on the other hand has been in politics for 30 years, he has been part of a ruling government and a cabinet minister in his career, it's that kind of experience and education that is needed in the next PM.

No it isn't. That's what is needed for a minister not a Prime Minister. The most important quality a PM has in my eyes is to want to shape the country the way citizens want it to be shaped.

Marco C wrote:
.....what you’re saying is nothing more than an empty talking point. Firstly JT had no shared values with Canadians because he hasn't told us what his values are -aside from the Go Canada Go! values that all the leader have.

You are entitled to your opinion but others disagree.  From February 2014,

The poll found that 54 per cent of Canadians say they “agree” (16 per cent “strongly,” 38 per cent “somewhat”) that they “share Justin Trudeau and the Liberal’s values when it comes to where Canada should be headed.”...

In the poll, respondents were asked whether Trudeau’s “policies and ideas are innovative and forward thinking.” Sixty per cent of respondents said they “agree” (17 per cent “strongly,” 43 per cent “somewhat”) with that statement, up eight points from two months ago. Meanwhile, 40 per cent said they “disagree” (17 per cent “strongly,” 23 per cent “somewhat”), down eight points.

On this question, the largest increase in Canadians who said they “agree” that Trudeau’s policies are innovative and forward thinking was seen in Manitoba (up 20 points), British Columbia (up 12 points) and Ontario (up seven points).

Read more: http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/more-canadians-share-justin-trudeau-s-values-poll-1.1697026#ixzz3PUy3RlHd

I am sure that is down right now but when Trudeau releases his platform it will soar because Canadians are willing to give him a chance.

The next is from September:

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2014/09/05/trudeau-liberals-issues-poll-aba...

Yet, a new poll shows that on the issues Canadians care about most, Justin Trudeau's Liberals are still the top choice.

The survey conducted August 15-18 and released this week by Abacus Data asked respondents to choose the three top issues facing Canada today.

Just more than half of Canadians, or 51 per cent, included health care in their list. This outpaced all other issues by a wide margin. Coming in second was job creation, at 34 per cent, followed by taxes at 32 per cent and debt/deficit at 29 per cent.

Another major issue of concern was accountability and trust (25 per cent). Middle class incomes, the environment, and retirement security were each chosen by 23 per cent of respondents.

Of those who said that health care was one of their top three issues, the Liberals placed first with 37 per cent support, ahead of the Conservatives at 27 per cent and the NDP at 25 per cent. On the issue of job creation — certainly a focus in the Conservatives' re-election strategy and a particularly important issue to Ontarians, according to the poll — the Liberals were also in front, with 36 per cent support to 32 per cent for the Tories and just 19 per cent for the NDP.

The Liberals also led by a wide margin among those who chose accountability and trust as being among their top three issues: 39 per cent to 25 per cent for the Conservatives and 24 per cent for the NDP. On middle class incomes (a particular issue of concern in Quebec), the environment, retirement security, education, and poverty, the Liberals were also ahead of their rivals. The biggest gap was among those who chose the environment (Quebecers and British Columbians were especially keen on this issue), with the Liberals at 44 per cent to 26 per cent for the NDP and 13 per cent for the Conservatives.

Even more recently:

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=6722

Six in Ten (60%) Canadians Think Trudeau’s Handling of Allegations of Sexual Assault against Liberal MPs Was Appropriate

Thursday, January 01, 2015

  • Quebecers (66%) and Atlantic Canadians (65%) were most likely to believe that Justin Trudeau’s handling of the situation was appropriate, followed by those living in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (59%), BC (58%), Ontario (58%) and Alberta (51%).
  • Women (61%) and men (59%) were equally similar in their levels of support for Trudeau’s handling of the situation, as were those aged 55+ (61%), 35 to 54 (60%) or 18 to 34 (59%).

Canadians will not vote based on his reaction to the misconduct allegations but it increases the sense of having shared values. Shared values is another way of saying "trust". With no platform the support stays soft because it's more difficult for supporters to explain their support. As soon as the platform comes out they will have something more concrete to support and they will.

So the Liberals didn't institute daycare during the 12 years they were in power. They slayed the deficit which is what people wanted them to do as evidenced by their being elected over and over again. They would have had another 4 years were it not for the sponsorship scandal. Editorialists have pointed out, and will continue to point out that the Liberals had a daycare deal with the provinces. Now that a decade has passed the support for national daycare is much stronger and there is an economic argument to be made for it.

The NDP will be back to crying "liar liar pants on fire" to no avail. The NDP will have to win on their own merits rather than relying on tearing down the Liberals.

MegB

Aristotleded24 wrote:

ajaykumar wrote:
How the heck is daycare going to create badly needed jobs?

Expanding daycare spaces provides jobs for people to work in daycares, whether they make a career out of it or use it as a stepping stone to do something else.

Indeed. In addition, there are thousands of single parents out there who feel trapped in poverty wage McJobs. Affordable, available high quality child care would allow them to return to school and improve their chances for better employment opportunities. Countries that have well-educated citiziens have stronger economies and lower unemployment.The Harper government and the Liberals refuse to acknowledge this, likely because the top 1% continue to prosper whether the economy is strong or not. Any politician who claims corporate welfare creates jobs is either completely ignorant of the fundamentals of economics or incredibly cynical. Or both.

When my eldest was just three, and there were still available subsidized spaces in good daycares, I decided to quit my crappy job and go to university. It changed my life. Eventually I ended up on the board of directors of my youngest's daycare and got to see first hand what affordable childcare could do for low income people.

ajaykumar

If the NDPers are so confident that they will sweep the next election coast to coast to coast, then why are they running threads like this. Worried about Mr JT? BTW Is the NDP opening satellite offices in the North Pole?After all the polar bears need  representation. They are all for taxing the corporations. 

terrytowel

Very SAD news that newly elected Liberal MP Arnold Chan has announced a leave of absence to deal with a cancer diagnosis.

I'm sure ALL of us on babble wish him a speedy recovery

NorthReport

Maybe you might want to consider apologizing for such a dumb-ass Liberal comment to start with.

ajaykumar wrote:

Mulcair never revealed how he'll pay for the $15 daycare. Also, the provinces are to come up with 40%!!!!!!!! good luck with that. he just came up with $15 because its 2015. How the heck is daycare going to create badly needed jobs? In order to send your kid to daycare you need a JOB!!!!!!!!!!!!

mark_alfred

MegB wrote:

Aristotleded24 wrote:

ajaykumar wrote:
How the heck is daycare going to create badly needed jobs?

Expanding daycare spaces provides jobs for people to work in daycares, whether they make a career out of it or use it as a stepping stone to do something else.

Indeed. In addition, there are thousands of single parents out there who feel trapped in poverty wage McJobs. Affordable, available high quality child care would allow them to return to school and improve their chances for better employment opportunities. Countries that have well-educated citiziens have stronger economies and lower unemployment.The Harper government and the Liberals refuse to acknowledge this, likely because the top 1% continue to prosper whether the economy is strong or not. Any politician who claims corporate welfare creates jobs is either completely ignorant of the fundamentals of economics or incredibly cynical. Or both.

When my eldest was just three, and there were still available subsidized spaces in good daycares, I decided to quit my crappy job and go to university. It changed my life. Eventually I ended up on the board of directors of my youngest's daycare and got to see first hand what affordable childcare could do for low income people.

Thanks MegB.  This is a post worth repeating.

clambake

ajaykumar wrote:

If the NDPers are so confident that they will sweep the next election coast to coast to coast, then why are they running threads like this. Worried about Mr JT? BTW Is the NDP opening satellite offices in the North Pole?After all the polar bears need  representation. They are all for taxing the corporations. 

Nobody here believes the NDP are going to sweep the nation. Yes, we are worried about Trudeau because we give a shit about our future. This isn't a sport.

Pondering

montrealer58 wrote:
It is incomprehensible that having "government administrative experience" would not make you qualified to be Prime Minister.

Harper has a lot more experience than Mulcair so by that measure he should continue to be PM.

mark_alfred

Pondering wrote:

montrealer58 wrote:
It is incomprehensible that having "government administrative experience" would not make you qualified to be Prime Minister.

Harper has a lot more experience than Mulcair so by that measure he should continue to be PM.

On a variety of important issues, such as the environment, I'd argue that Mulcair has far more relevant experience than does Harper.

NorthReport

And again and again until it might possibly sink in. 

mark_alfred wrote:

MegB wrote:

Aristotleded24 wrote:

ajaykumar wrote:
How the heck is daycare going to create badly needed jobs?

Expanding daycare spaces provides jobs for people to work in daycares, whether they make a career out of it or use it as a stepping stone to do something else.

Indeed. In addition, there are thousands of single parents out there who feel trapped in poverty wage McJobs. Affordable, available high quality child care would allow them to return to school and improve their chances for better employment opportunities. Countries that have well-educated citiziens have stronger economies and lower unemployment.The Harper government and the Liberals refuse to acknowledge this, likely because the top 1% continue to prosper whether the economy is strong or not. Any politician who claims corporate welfare creates jobs is either completely ignorant of the fundamentals of economics or incredibly cynical. Or both.

When my eldest was just three, and there were still available subsidized spaces in good daycares, I decided to quit my crappy job and go to university. It changed my life. Eventually I ended up on the board of directors of my youngest's daycare and got to see first hand what affordable childcare could do for low income people.

Thanks MegB.  This is a post worth repeating.

Pondering

clambake wrote:
ajaykumar wrote:

If the NDPers are so confident that they will sweep the next election coast to coast to coast, then why are they running threads like this. Worried about Mr JT? BTW Is the NDP opening satellite offices in the North Pole?After all the polar bears need  representation. They are all for taxing the corporations. 

Nobody here believes the NDP are going to sweep the nation. Yes, we are worried about Trudeau because we give a shit about our future. This isn't a sport.

Then I think it would be a good idea to stop underestimating him and start thinking about why the NDP failed to capitalize on the Orange Crush. Blaming the MSM doesn't cut it nor does putting down Canadians as celebrity driven.

Neither the NDP nor the Liberals are tackling the big issues of the day which go well beyond tweaking environmental laws, social programs and trade deals therefore other factors come into play.

Pondering

terrytowel wrote:

Very SAD news that newly elected Liberal MP Arnold Chan has announced a leave of absence to deal with a cancer diagnosis.

I'm sure ALL of us on babble wish him a speedy recovery

It is, I do, but I wish we could all be so lucky as to be able to get a leave of absence from work to deal with a cancer diagnosis.

ajaykumar

The latest seat projections from Laurier Institute: 

CPC-134

LPC-120

NDP-79

BQ-4

GREEN-1

ajaykumar

Im very pleased that Trudeaus number have slightly gone down. it helps him because the more people r worried about harper winning, the more they will vote for him

NorthReport

The Laurier Institute just another right-wing think tank.  Frown

NorthReport

What a complete doorknob Trudeau is.

And this is from a member of Canada's closely watched at issues political panel. Oh my!  

Tom Mulcair says Justin Trudeau lacks experience for PM job  No kidding!

Justin Trudeau appears to be backing away from putting ‘a price on carbon’  Frown

Wait, what? We’re not going to put a price on carbon? Or not, at any rate, at the national level? That’s no longer federal Liberal policy? We’re to be deprived of the edifying spectacle, come the next election, of the federal Conservatives roaming up and down the land warning of the “tax on everything” the Liberals have planned?

No, hang on, they’ll do that anyway. But it would certainly appear the Liberals have just discarded one of the few distinctive policies they had hitherto been good enough to share with us.

 

 

http://www.canada.com/news/national/Coyne+Justin+Trudeau+appears+backing...

 

NorthReport
NorthReport

Liberal Candidate Darshan Kang Distances Himself From Tweet Mocking Harper In A Closet

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/01/28/darshan-kang-stephen-harper-clos...

NorthReport

This is devastating - should they replace little tin pot dictator Trudeau now before the coming Liberal debacle? Frown

Trudeau’s chief of staff held teleconference with Liberal MPs 15 minutes before Adams’ floor-crossing news conference Monday

Liberal MPs learned only 15 minutes prior to party leader Justin Trudeau’s Ottawa news conference Monday that he was set to announce former Conservative MP Eve Adams was joining his caucus and would seek nomination as a Liberal candidate for the 2015 election, The Hill Times has learned.

http://www.hilltimes.com/news/politics/2015/02/11/trudeaus-chief-of-staf...

NorthReport

Trudeau = Harper with a smile is dead on! Frown

Who’s running the Liberals, Justin Trudeau or Mike Colle’s dead body?

Mr. Colle is a provincial representative, not a federal one, so he’s not bound by Mr. Trudeau’s whims. And he clearly doesn’t share the enthusiasm of his party leader, Premier Kathleen Wynne, who has taken to appearing with Mr. Trudeau at every opportunity. He seems instead to prefer common sense, and a street-level grasp of political sensibilities.

In that he has an advantage over Mr. Trudeau, who, after almost two years as leader, is still making the sort of hamfisted gaffes that saddle the party with people like Ms. Adams. Eglinton-Lawrence already has a candidate for the nomination, lawyer Marco Mendecino, who has signed up hundreds of new members for the party. Mr. Trudeau will now have to either muscle him aside in favour of Ms. Adams – once again violating his “open nomination” policy and upsetting many local Liberals – or explain why he went to the trouble of recruiting her in the first place, only to let her drop off the radar a few months later.

If past practice is followed, he’ll find a way to squeeze out Mr. Mendecino, much as Ms. Wynne did in Sudbury, where the Liberal candidate was summarily jettisoned in favour of an NDP defector in a recent byelection. The Liberals won the byelection, but at the expense of many bruised Liberal followers.

Mr. Trudeau has opted for this route in the past, dictating candidates despite a pledge not to do so. Toronto Central got Chrystia Freeland because Mr. Trudeau’s people made clear they wanted it that way. Trinity-Spadina riding got Adam Vaughan for the same 

reason. Ottawa-Orleans got Gen. Andrew Leslie over lawyer David Bertschi when Mr. Bertschi’s “green light” was rescinded to ease the way for a Leslie acclamation. Marijuana activist Jody Emery was barred from running in Vancouver, despite Mr. Trudeau’s pro-legalization stand (perhaps to avoid the colourful Ms. Emery from attracting too much attention to the issue). Barj Dhahan, a candidate for the Liberal nomination in Vancouver South, told the CBC he was pressured to withdraw by party officials so they could run a “preferred” candidate.

Dhanah said he was offered another riding, and told he’d be acclaimed as candidate, but rejected the offer because he has lived in Vancouver South for 60 years and wanted to represent a community he knows.

In most of these cases the party leadership has insisted they’re just following standard practice, while painting the losers as whiners and ingrates.

“Any time you have a competitive situation like politics is, there are winners and there are people who don’t win and their supporters can sometimes be very emotional,” Mr. Trudeau said in the case of Mr. Dhahan.


http://news.nationalpost.com/2015/02/11/kelly-mcparland-whos-running-the...

Winston

NorthReport wrote:

Trudeau’s chief of staff held teleconference with Liberal MPs 15 minutes before Adams’ floor-crossing news conference Monday

Providing people 15 minutes notice before holding a press conference on a topic that affects them seems to be Justin's modus operandi, as two alleged harassment victims can assert.

 

The more I see of Justin Trudeau, the less I'm convinced he's just a naif, and the more I'm convinced he's a creep.

ajaykumar

May I ask how many times the NDP under Mulcair allowed free votes in the house? ndp mps vote 100% with the caucus!!!!!!!!!! which proves that mulcair is no different than Harper. I cant believe that there is no disagreement on anything!   Many NDPers are not running again under Mulcair, which proves they dont like him.

Winston

ajaykumar wrote:

May I ask how many times the NDP under Mulcair allowed free votes in the house? ndp mps vote 100% with the caucus!!!!!!!!!! which proves that mulcair is no different than Harper. I cant believe that there is no disagreement on anything!   Many NDPers are not running again under Mulcair, which proves they dont like him.

You're definition of "proof" is quite broad, ajaykumar. A word of advice: don't study mathematics.

nicky

A higher % of the Liberal caucus is not running for re-election than of the NDP caucus, AJ. Is that "proof" they do not like Justin?

nicky

It's not often I agree with Margaret Wente but she hits the nail on the head here:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/bad-judgment-naked-opportuni...

Pondering

nicky wrote:

It's not often I agree with Margaret Wente but she hits the nail on the head here:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/bad-judgment-naked-opportuni...

From the article:

Mr. Trudeau’s main appeal, and it is not a small thing, is a kind of sunny idealism that cuts through the cynicism corroding politics today.

Wrong. That's the excuse his detractors use to put down his success. He is a quintessential Canadian.

He makes for a refreshing contrast to the nasty, mean-spirited, dictatorial, spiteful, controlling leader whose government has grown a bit too long in the tooth.

That hasn't changed.

A lot of people are sick of Mr. Harper, and desperate for an alternative. But Mr. Trudeau’s catastrophic judgment – and now his crassly naked opportunism – is driving them away.

Nonsense.  This is only the beginning of the second round. Support is cooling because Trudeau isn't presenting a platform and Harper has the advantage on the economy and security. That is what should be worrying people. The NDP is dropping right along with the Liberals and that is touted as a grand success because it narrows the large gap between the Liberals and NDP.  That is not a good thing when it is due to growing popularity of neoliberal economics and expansion of the security state.

thorin_bane

Pondering wrote:

 

Nonsense.  This is only the beginning of the second round. Support is cooling because Trudeau isn't presenting a platform and Harper has the advantage on the economy and security. That is what should be worrying people. The NDP is dropping right along with the Liberals and that is touted as a grand success because it narrows the large gap between the Liberals and NDP.  That is not a good thing when it is due to growing popularity of neoliberal economics and expansion of the security state.

Yes the same Neoliberal economics that Trudeau supports including the recent repressive terror legislation.

Pondering

thorin_bane wrote:

Pondering wrote:

 

Nonsense.  This is only the beginning of the second round. Support is cooling because Trudeau isn't presenting a platform and Harper has the advantage on the economy and security. That is what should be worrying people. The NDP is dropping right along with the Liberals and that is touted as a grand success because it narrows the large gap between the Liberals and NDP.  That is not a good thing when it is due to growing popularity of neoliberal economics and expansion of the security state.

Yes the same Neoliberal economics that Trudeau supports including the recent repressive terror legislation.

Yes, because apparently that is what Canadians want. That's the part that has to change.

indigo 007 indigo 007's picture

Trudeau is in free fall as he demonstrates his inept political judgement at every opportunity.

Mulcair has to seize the opportunity, take the gloves off,  and  make it a two way race between  him and Harper.

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