Federal NDP candidates 2015 part 2

And the (contested) nomination meeting in Kings-Hants (NS) was postponed due to a snowstorm.

Former MP (80-84) Laverne Lewycky is the NDP candidate in Dauphin-Swan River-Neepawa
http://cj104radio.com/news/cjn9200_18447_DNS1_01.html

What's interesting here is that former MP Inky Mark is running as an Indie. I wonder if that will have an impact on CON voters? 

How accurate was the model last election?

The Richmond Hill NDP has elected Adam DeVita as it's NDP nominee in the coming election.

The King-Vaughan NDP will be chossing its nominee in the next several weeks.

I wonder who the Libs will run against Peggy Nash. They will lose.

sherpa-finn wrote:

- and two challengers in Tory-held seats: Carol Baird Ellan (in a contested race) who has a real shot at taking Burnaby North-Seymour.

That seat was originally known as Burnaby-Douglas, which has always been held by the NDP over the past couple of decades. Was Svend Robinsons seat. Yet, thereafter, the NDP only won the seat by razor-thin 2% margins in 2004 and 2006 (over the Libs) and 2% margins over the Cons (in 2008 and 2011). The NDP has reached its poli vote share ceiling in that riding.

However, the seat has been redistributed and is now called Burnaby North-Seymour. The Seymour portion of the riding is in affluent North Vancouver and the NDP was in 4th place there back in 2008 & 2011 based upon transposed results of redistribution. Furthermore, the Cons would have won the new riding by a 9% margin over the NDP in 2011.

Current Burnaby-Douglas NDP MP Kennedy Stewart previously saw the poli writing on the wall and bailed to the new riding of Burnaby South. 

With the rejuvinated Libs in Burnaby North-Seymour, it is now a strictly Con-Lib race. The Greens have also attracted a high-proflie anti-Kinder Morgan pipeline SFU prof as their candidate, which will likely also bleed off 2011 NDP votes. 

Sorry, but Carol does not have any shot of taking this riding in 2015. And she is a great candidate.

Strange that Mr Virani poses as a "human rights lawyer." He is in fact a Crown prosecutor whose job it is to oppose the apllication of the Charter of Rights in criminal proceedings. He would be better described as an anti-human rights lawyer.

But we are used to double speak from Liberals.

I think Centrist may be unduly pessimistic about Burnaby-North Seymour.

The redistributed figures which include the unfriendly turf of North Vancouver are:

Burnaby North--Seymour [BC]

Con 44.2%

NDP 35.2%

Lib 15.7% 

Green 3.9%

The Liberals look to be a long shot here even should their numbers double.

By all accounts the NDP are runnining a superb candidate, a retired judge with her roots on the north shore. I would expect her to have an extra appeal to the more affluent Seymour voters and poll better there than the NDP did in 2011 when they ran only a token campaign.

nicky wrote:

The redistributed figures which include the unfriendly turf of North Vancouver are:

Burnaby North--Seymour [BC]

Con 44.2%

NDP 35.2%

Lib 15.7% 

Green 3.9%

The Liberals look to be a long shot here even should their numbers double.

Am aware of those 2011 vote transposition numbers. But analytically speaking, the fed Libs collapsed in BC in 2011 to a 13% popular vote share. Was even surprised that they held onto Van-Centre and Van-Quadra. That fed Lib vote in BC started to collapse back in 2008 under Dion as well.

But I agree with Stock that the fed Libs will rebound to the mid-20s range in BC during 2015. And the fed Lib vote in BC is strongest in urban Vancouver - that is Van City proper and surrounding inner suburbs of the North Shore, Burnaby, and Richmond.

Ergo we will likely see 2011 voter migration as follows: Con→Lib and NDP→Lib. Right now, do not know the extent. And another problem is that the Greens have a high-profile candidate in Lynne Quarmby, SFU prof, who led the high-profile battle against Kinder Morgan pipeline twinning on Burnaby Mountain. That situ will also likely see some 2011 voter migration: NDP→Green.

Again, I wish Tom would get off the fence on KM with his wishy-washy position because, right now the Greens own the issue and will use it as a wedge in 2015.

And three more NDP nomination meetings today:

I believe that Nicolas Tabah was acclaimed today in Bécancour Nicolet Saurel  - I had not seen any other NDP nominees for this riding which is held by Louis Plamandon of the BQ, Dean of the House - sitting MP since 1984. Plamandon narrowly held on in 2011 ... and has not yet confirmed (I dont think) whether he will run again. This one should be interesting.

In Ontario, Derek Spense was acclaimed today as candidate in Durham, - which was Bev Oda’s old riding, now held by Erin O'Toole. And a pretty secure CPC hold, unless the bottom really does fall out of the Harper campaign.

And in Kings-Hants, NS (Scott Brison's riding) the winnning NDP candidate in a contested race is Morgan Wheeldon.  That seat was a traditionally Conservative riding, but Brison brought enough votes across with him (when he moved from a PC MP to Lib) to hold, though in a relatively tight Lib-Con race in 2011. The NDP there has pulled in a healthy but distant third place @ 20%.

Debater wrote:

2.  It was interesting that the Wynne Liberals took Durham from the PC's last June, but I agree that federally the riding seems pretty Conservative and now O'Toole has an even higher profile as the new Veterans Minister.

Though for the record, Spence was a strong third at 24%.  (Not that it'll mean anything in the end, other than a possible battle for second.)

Quote:

3.  Yes, Scott Brison had a narrower margin of victory in 2011 than usual.  But then, which Liberal MP didn't that year?! 

Frank Valeriote, for one: the collapse of the Green vote helped.

it should be fun to watch the NDP  on election night

Hey, ajay - while you are crawling about, here is a nice little quote from Emiliano Zapata for you: "Es mejor morir de pie que vivir de rodillas.”

Better to die standing than live on your knees!

Stockholm wrote:

How many people in BC do you think actually see Kinder Morgan as a vote determining issue? The BC NDP didn't even win Burnaby North despite Dix's pledge to stop it.

In order to answer your query better harken back to the May, 2013 BC prov. election. Prior to the election campaign, the Northern Gateway pipeline was the hot button issue in that vein and NDP was completely opposed. KM's proposed pipeline twinning was not really on the news radar screen. Just an abstract concept, for the most part. Dix and the BC NDP's position was also on the fence, so to speak, until an official proposal would be submitted to the NEB.

Only during the election campaign, did Dix make a major announcement that Vancouver should not be a "major oil export port" on Earth Day. Dix didn't say that he opposed the KM twinning at that time. Only the BC MSM, smelling poli red meat (adding 1 + 1) , called him out opposing KM. And it took a while before the MSM dragged that confirmation out of Dix, IIRC.

Dix made his decision for 2 reasons. He got caught up in the public opinion polls showong an NDP landslide victory and he personally wanted to knock off Christy Clark in the process. As a matter of fact, the Dave Eby campaign, in Clark's riding of Van-Point Grey, told BC NDP HQ that potential increase in oil tanker traffic from KM in Burrard Inlet was their major concern. And that was also heard by other BC NDP campaigns on the doorstep in Van City.

And then the Green surge in Metro Victoria was also occuring. Victoria-Hillside NDP MLA Rob Fleming also sounded the alarm bells to BC NDP HQ about the surging Green vote, which also factored into Dix's decision. In fact, Harcourt was sent over for a press conference and Harcourt implored folk to vote BC NDP v. Green as that would assist the BC Lib's in winning a seat.

Both combined actions likely prevented the Greens from winning their 2nd seat in Saanich North and the Isles in a very, very tight 3-way race. The NDP only won the riding with their massive majorities on the numerous Gulf Isles where potential increased KM oil tanker traffic would pass by.

And Dix's "Kinder Morgan Surprise" also saw the BC NDP increasing their popular vote share in Van City proper (winning V-PG and V-Fairview narrowly). Furthermore, BC NDP popular vote share went up overall in Van City as well as the North Shore ridings. In fact, after reviewing 7 inner Van City and North Shore ridings, the BC NDP vote went up between 3% and 10% over 2009 and the Green vote went down, where they ran.

Remember, these folk are connected to the waterfront in all of these ridings and an emiotional vote arises when one considers a potential oil spill along their waterfront and beaches. OTOH, Burnaby is a bit of a different story. The BC NDP vote slightly went down there in most of the 4 Burnaby provincial ridings.

And unlike other Burrard Inlet communities, a total disconnect exists between the Burrard Inlet foreshore in Burnaby and the community itself. Think, very, very roughly speaking, the Scarborough escarpment in your neck of the woods and disconnect to the Lake Ontario waterfront.

Don't know if you have ever driven the Barnet Expressway from Port Moody along the Burnaby waterfront, but Burnaby is wayyyy up on a hillside and the expressway, rail line, Chevron refinery, etc. lies in-between. Speculation and conjecture on my part, but I believe that may have been the factor in the 2013 provincial election results. 

And there was no organized muni or public opposition to KM at the time in Burnaby back in 2013 to boot.

OTOH, Dix "Kinder Morgan Surpise" saw a decrease in the BC NDP popular vote share in every other Metro Vancouver riding, Fraser Valley riding and BC interior riding as a result (with a few exceptions due to local micro riding politics). That decision was viewed negatively as a "symbol" and lightening rod elsewhere in BC. Another discussion altogether. But, let's face it, the fed NDP will not win any seats outside of Van City and the inner suburbs in 2015.

Yet Tom was spooked by the "Kinder Morgan Surprise" from 2013 and has taken a nuanced "wishy-washy" position on KM. Akin to the fed Libs. And since 2013, the KM pipeline twinning has seen opposition groups in Burnaby spring up as well as Burnaby mayor Derek Corrigan himself. KM is now very much on the poli radar screen in Burnaby as opposed to 2013. More focused upon the pipeline itself through Burnaby and an increase in the oil tanker farm than oil tankers per se in my view.

In that regard, the Greens, unlike the rest of the country, are now a major poli threat here in BC, particularly on Van Isle and inner Van City and environs heading into 2015. Aside from Van Isle, which I have already discussed lengthily, let's take  a look at the new riding of Burnaby South. NDP MP Kennedy Stewart (former SFU poli-sci prof) saw the writing on the wall and bailed from Burnaby North-Seymour.

But Burnaby South saw a narrow 5% NDP win over the Cons in both 2011 and 2008. And a combined 10% Lib/Green vote from 2008 collapsed and was split between the Cons and NDP in 2011. In 2015, both the Libs and Greens will see increased vote share at both the expense of the Cons and NDP in Burnaby South.

But with the Greens now having their KM "wedge issue" against the NDP, with emotional voters, that could mean the difference betrween an NDP win in Burnaby South v. the Cons (even possibly the Libs). When I say that, I can see the Greens obtaining 10% - 15% of the popular vote share in that riding alone. Mostly at the expense of the 2011 NDP vote share.

Just can't believe that NDP HQ poli strategists can't analyse same. Absolutely no downside to Tom changing his KM position from the fence to opposing same. It's all upside and negates any potential Green wedge issue. Political campaigns are military and one needs to pre-empt any potential threats from the outset. If, during the 2015 campaign, internal NDP riding polls shows a surge in Green support at the expense of the NDP due to KM, it will be all but too late to reverse decision.

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Centrist wrote:

But, let's face it, the fed NDP will not win any seats outside of Van City and the inner suburbs in 2015.

Isn't that a little defeatist and premature? Nathan Cullen has a seat in the North, and there's a great chunk of NDP support in central BC in Atamanenko's riding.

Should have clarified myself. Nathan will win Skeena-Bulkley Valley. That's a slam dunk. But Alex's seat has now been redistributed. His new riding of South Okanagan-West Kootenay has seen a HUGE chunk of hard-core Con Okanagan Valey vote thrown in (and that area is growing population wise) while the hard-core NDP vote from Nelson has been thrown into nearby hard-core Con Kootenay-Columbia seat. Coincidence? 

With transposed results, in 2011 the Cons would have won Alex's old seat with a 5% margin over the NDP. And both the Libs and Greens basically ran paper candidates in 2011 and saw their vote share decrease from 2008. With transposed results from 2008, the Cons would have won the riding with a ~10% margin. I am also very familiar with these areas and their demographics/historical voting patterns.

In 2015, both the Libs and Greens are running much more credible candidates here and their vote share will most certainly increase. BTW, Tom changing his KM pipeline position won't affect riding results here. 

PS. I have said it here before. 2015 should see a "keep the furniture" campaign here in BC. NDP HQ's 20 seat BC target is, quite, frankly, not attainable.

Centrist wrote:

In 2015, both the Libs and Greens are running much more credible candidates here and their vote share will most certainly increase.

Why are you so certain that the Liberal share of the vote and the seat count will improve over 2011? I know you've mentioned that Trudeau pulls a great many crowds, but that's because people don't know him that well, and when they want to toss the Conservatives, they habitually think the Liberals are up for the job. That kind of thing can turn on a dime very easily during a campaign, especially since Trudeau has shown that he cannot withstand scrutniy and will crack under pressure, his rolling over for Harper on C-51 the latest example. The campaign will be a much more even playing field where all the leaders will have a chance to introduce themselves to people. Heck, I saw it happen here in Winnipeg, where Judy Wasylycia-Leis had a commanding lead in the race for mayor, but her campaign faltered under scrutiny. Olivia Chow was a sure thing to be elected mayor of Toronto. Jack Layton at the start of the 2011 campaign was "tired" and actually lost one of his candidates to the Liberals, and yet he still more than tripled the party standings.

terrytowel wrote:

Olivia Chow announced she wil NOT seek a nomination to run for the NDP in the upcoming federal election.

She has accepted a 3 year term as a part-time professor for Ryerson University.

She is out of politics, for now.

She's earned a break I think... for now.
I'd love to she her run in the next provincial election in either Spadina-Fort York (hard but she's got the name cred to make it competative) or University-Rosedale (easier but still a hard fight) The provincial party could use some strong left-cred candidates running in TO with big name recognition. 

BetterOnTheLeft wrote:

terrytowel wrote:

Olivia Chow announced she wil NOT seek a nomination to run for the NDP in the upcoming federal election.

She has accepted a 3 year term as a part-time professor for Ryerson University.

She is out of politics, for now.

She's earned a break I think... for now.
I'd love to she her run in the next provincial election in either Spadina-Fort York (hard but she's got the name cred to make it competative) or University-Rosedale (easier but still a hard fight) The provincial party could use some strong left-cred candidates running in TO with big name recognition. 

Well since it is a 3-year contract, Chow's teaching term wouldn't finish until just before the next Ontario election.  That doesn't allow her a lot of time to run a political campaign.

But if Chow were to enter the provincial NDP scene after her teaching contract finishes, I agree that she could be a boost to NDP fortunes in Toronto.  It might help Horwath (or her successor) be more competitive with Wynne in the 416.

--

Olivia Chow named visiting professor at Ryerson

Monday, Feb. 23 2015

Former MP and Toronto mayoral candidate Olivia Chow has taken a teaching job at Ryerson University.

The university says it appointed Chow as a distinguished visiting professor in the Faculty of Arts for three years.

Chow says she’s excited to join a program where she will focus partly on mentorship.

The university says Chow will also start a program based on community engagement and democratic participation in addition to teaching courses and give talks.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com//news/toronto/olivia-chow-named-visiting-...

Even Alice Funke, an NDPer, thinks the Liberals are likely to retain St. Leonard-St. Michel since it is usually a Liberal stronghold.  It's currently projected to go Liberal easily on Eric Grenier's site.  There can always be surprises though, of course.

The Massimo Pacetti situation was certainly unexpected, but remember that Trudeau is considered to have handled the sexual harassment issue better than Mulcair by some people, including Chantal Hébert.

The current poll numbers look dismal for the NDP in the 416. At this rate even Peggy Nash will be lucky to keep her seat. Ontario and federal governments take almost $10 billion more out of Toronto than they put back in, all thanks to the Liberals. Each resident of Toronto contributes $5,000 so Liberals can bribe voters in marginal ridings. It is difficult for the NDP to compete with this.

lagatta wrote:

Rosannie Filato's first campaign video: https://vimeo.com/user16721746/review/119707838/6e888c6244 (French)

https://vimeo.com/user16721746/review/119714367/32bd8add2a (English)

None in Italian or Spanish yet...

Brava, bella. Indeed St-Leonard - St-Michel is quite the Liberal stronghold, but things can change.

In addition to the traditional Italian and francophone populations, there are a lot of newer immigrants in these areas. Haitians, people from several Latin American countries, a surprising number of East and Southeast Asians (two large Asian supermarkets), and the Little Maghreb along Jean-Talon in eastern Villeray (Papineau) and St-Michel.

Quite a bit of the postwar housing is getting rundown (the older housing in Villeray has held up better, of course) and there are a lot of housing problems and other social problems.

More a provincial than a federal issue perhaps, but the eastward extension of the blue line of the Métro has once again been put on ice. This area is densely populated, and the 141 bus on Jean-Talon east is one of the busiest bus routes in Montréal, and always terribly overcrowded. Even building one more station east to Pie IX would be a huge help for commuters.

She sounds like a great candidate indeed, I've been really impressed with the candidate coming forward and those re-nominated in PQ ... If Massimo Pacetti is not able to contest as a Liberal and runs as an Indie, combined with an out of riding "dropped in" candidate like Liza Frulla (former MP for Jeanne-Le Ber... not even that close) that could be the way the NDP pulls up the middle. But that's a lot of if's.

Come on tt, Hamilton Centre is a much safer NDP seat, with Andrea Horwath provincially, and David Christopherson federally.

trotwood73 wrote:

Debater wrote:

[...], but remember that Trudeau is considered to have handled the sexual harassment issue better than Mulcair by some people, including Chantal Hébert.

Seriously? SERIOUSLY!?!?! Are you STILL going there!?!?! Let's make this very serious situation (that STILL isn't resolved) about sexual harassment about whose leader scored more points!?!?

You Liberals are scum....  

You totally missed the point.  And then you resort to name-calling - like so many other NDPers here.

The way leaders handle serious issues resonates with voters.  The point is that Trudeau took a strong stand on the issue and called for an investigation whereas Mulcair waffled around and wanted to keep it behind closed doors.  He struggled to articulate a clear position on a serious issue.  That's what Chantal Hébert was saying.

And obviously in a riding affected by the issue, the way voters feel about how it was handled is relevant!

And I was responding to someone else's post who brought up Massimo Pacetti and how it might benefit the NDP politically in the riding.  So it was an NDPer who was thinking about it in terms of political again.  You missed that part as well.

Michael Moriarity wrote:

Come on tt, Hamilton Centre is a much safer NDP seat, with Andrea Horwath provincially, and David Christopherson federally.

The Queen of Hamilton Sheila Copps would disagree with you.

She is the original steeltown scrapper.

Debater wrote:

the NDP barely hung on to the riding last year, despite Cherri DiNovo being a multiple-term incumbent.

I told babblers that during the Ontario election. That Cheri was in the political fight of her life. But everyone pooh poohed that saying Cheri wasn't going anywhere. But the demograhics of that area has changed, and Cheri won by an extreme slim margin.

But the NDP can take comfort that Olivia Chow dominated Parkdale-High Park in the mayor's race.

If Cheri Di Novo can fight off a Liberal tide provincially, then Peggy can do it federally.

Peggy being voted Best MP by the readers of Now magazine multiple times doesn't hurt either.

terrytowel wrote:

Michael Moriarity wrote:

Come on tt, Hamilton Centre is a much safer NDP seat, with Andrea Horwath provincially, and David Christopherson federally.

The Queen of Hamilton Sheila Copps would disagree with you.

She is the original steeltown scrapper.

Debater wrote:

the NDP barely hung on to the riding last year, despite Cherri DiNovo being a multiple-term incumbent.

I told babblers that during the Ontario election. That Cheri was in the political fight of her life. But everyone pooh poohed that saying Cheri wasn't going anywhere. But the demograhics of that area has changed, and Cheri won by an extreme slim margin.

But the NDP can take comfort that Olivia Chow dominated Parkdale-High Park in the mayor's race.

If Cheri Di Novo can fight off a Liberal tide provincially, then Peggy can do it federally.

Peggy being voted Best MP by the readers of Now magazine multiple times doesn't hurt either.

1.  You're right that Hamilton was Liberal during the Chrétien years and Sheila Copps was a popular incumbent.  But that's also when the NDP was struggling to keep official party status.  The Liberals haven't held any of the seats in the Hamilton area in about a decade.  So Michael Moriarty is correct that Hamilton is a pretty solid NDP area -- much more so than Parkdale-High Park which went Liberal as recently as 2008.

2.  I agree that Peggy Nash has the edge because of incumbency and name recognition, but remember that the Federal NDP is polling LOWER than the provincial Horwath NDP.  So Nash could be vulnerable unless Mulcair's numbers rise in Ontario during the election.  Nash is a decent MP, but remember that her electoral record is rather variable.

2004 - Nash loses to Liberal MP Sarmite Bulte.

2006 - Nash wins over Liberal MP Sarmite Bulte.

2008 - Nash loses to Gerrard Kennedy by several thousand votes.

2011 - Nash beats Kennedy by a large margin during the Layton Wave.

So if we look at Nash's record, she has yet to win the seat twice in a row.  And the only time she has won by a large margin was when she was riding the Layton Wave.

Advantage Nash for now, but by no means a safe NDP seat along the lines of Vancouver East or the Hamilton seats.