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Ontatio Polling - started January 30, 2015
Fri, 2015-01-30 11:29
#1
Ontatio Polling - started January 30, 2015
Fri, 2015-01-30 11:30
#2
So who's is the more accurate pollster for Sudbury?
Oracle or Forum?
Wed, 2015-02-04 12:45
#3
So who's is the more accurate pollster for Sudbury?Oracle or Forum?
The term "accurate pollster" seems to be an oxymoron these days, particularly in by-elections where it can be much harder to contact key demographics within the riding.
Wed, 2015-02-04 18:16
#4
Where the fuck is Ontatio?
Wed, 2015-02-04 19:21
#5
Where the fuck is Ontatio?
A little west of Fellatio.
Thu, 2015-02-05 23:18
#6
swallow
It's a little ways on the other side of the Decatie.
Fri, 2015-02-06 00:17
#7
A little west of Fellatio.Where the fuck is Ontatio?
*resists making a "place to stand, a place to grow" joke*
Fri, 2015-02-06 01:10
#8
Last polls how the Ontario NDP at 19 per cent holding Steady
Sun, 2015-02-08 22:29
#9
So in the last Ontario election using a Nate Silver style analysis to reduce and/or prevent herding we got the following results:
Actual Results L - 39%, P - 31%, N - 24%
Pollster / Liberals / Dif / PCs / Dif / NDP / Dif / Total Percentile Difference
Abacus / 35% / 4% / 33% / 2% / 26% / 24% / 2% / 8% - most accurate
Forum / 40% / 1% / 36% / 5% / 19% / 5% / 11% - second most accurate
Ipsos Reid / 33% / 6% / 34% / 3% / 27% / 24% / 3% / 12% - close third
EKOS / 31% / 8% / 33% / 2% / 20% / 4% / 14% - dead last of these 4 pollsters
----------------------
Looking for a bite of data to do a similiar-type analysis for the recent Feb 5th by-election - can anyone supply the missing figures or corrections - and thanks:
Feb 5th, 2015 By-Election Results
Libs - %?, NDP - %?, PC - %?, Ind - %?
Polls from January 15, 2015 to February 4, 2015 only:
Pollster / Dtae / LIbs / NDP / PCs / Ind
Forum / Jan / 40% / 42% / 13% / 1%
Forum / Jan / 33% / 30% / 11% / 22%
Forum / Feb / 34% / 36% / 14% / 11%
Mainstreet / ? / 37% / 32% / 13% /16%
Mainstreet / ? / 32% / 28% / 9% / 14%
Oracle / Jan / 44% / 26% / %? / %?
Oracle / Feb / 42% / 26% / 10% / 19%
Sun, 2015-02-08 22:39
#10
A little west of Fellatio.Where the fuck is Ontatio?
*resists making a "place to stand, a place to grow" joke*
Groan!
Sun, 2015-02-08 23:06
#11
Misfit
BTW, my mother's sister was on the government committee that came up with that song.
Mon, 2015-02-09 22:35
#12
Mon, 2015-02-09 23:40
#13
Actually doesn't look like any of the pollsters were that accurate.
Sudbury Feb 5, 2015 By-Election Results:
L - 41%, N - 35%, I - 12%, PC - 7%
Now averaging the polling to help reduce and/or prevent herding:
Pollster / Libs / NDP / Ind / PCs/ Difference
Maintreet / 35% / 30% / 15% / 11% / 18%
Forum / 33% / 33% / 12% / 12% / 18%
Oracle / 42% / 26% / 20% / 10% / 21%
Tue, 2015-02-17 22:10
#14
Let's actually do an analysis of the polling, using the process to reduce or prevent "herding" for the 2014 Ontario election:
Election Results: L - 39%; PC - 31%; N - 24%
It appears to show poor results for all, except one of the pollsters which confirms that it is almost impossible to be sure we are getting reasonably accurate polling from most pollsters when it comes to politics.
Pollster / Libs / Dif / PCs / Dif / NDP / Dif / Total Difference
Angus Reid / 36% / 3% / 32% / 1% / 26% / 2% / 6% - not too shabby!
EKOS / 36% / 3% / 33% / 2% / 20% / 4%/ 9%
Oracle / 34% / 5% / 36% / 5% / 25% / 1% / 11%
Forum / 40% / 1% / 36% / 5% / 19% / 5% / 11%
Abacus / 35% / 4% / 38% / 7% / 26% / 2% / 13%
Ipsos Reid / 33% / 6% / 36% / 5% / 27% / 3% / 14%
Additional pollsters who released polls outside of the three week period prior to E-Day as follows:
Pollster / Date / Libs / Dif / PCs / Dif / NDP / Dif / Total Difference
Innovative / May 6 '14 / 39% / 0% / 33% / 2% / 20% / 4% / 6%
Nanos / Apr 11 '14 / 36% / 3% / 36% / 5% / 22% / 2% / 10%
Campaign R / Sep 19 '13 / 36% / 3% / 32% / 1% / 22% / 2% / 6%
Sun, 2015-03-01 20:50
#15
Actuallty the PCs would be up 8% since the election - they only got 31% on election day
Sun, 2015-03-01 21:06
#16
I thought what was going on in the Sudbury by-election might be the beginning of the end for the Wynne Liberals, and I still do, as the PCs, even without a Leader, have now gained 15% on the Liberals since the 2014 election.
Libs - 32%, Down 7%
PCs - 39%, Up 8%
NDP - 21%, Down 3%
Progressive Conservatives lead Liberals in Ontario
http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/240/progressive-conservatives-lead-li...
Sun, 2015-03-01 21:08
#17
Thanks Stock
I thought what was going on in the Sudbury by-election might be the beginning of the end for the Wynne Liberals, and I still do, as the PCs, even without a Leader, have now gained 15% on the Liberals since the 2014 election.
Libs - 32%, Down 7%
PCs - 39%, Up 8%
NDP - 21%, Down 3%
Progressive Conservatives lead Liberals in Ontario
http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/240/progressive-conservatives-lead-li...
Sun, 2015-03-01 22:45
#18
With Patrick Brown as PC Leader Ontatio liberals have nothing to worry about.
Sun, 2015-03-01 22:55
#19
I thought what was going on in the Sudbury by-election might be the beginning of the end for the Wynne Liberals, and I still do, as the PCs, even without a Leader, have now gained 15% on the Liberals since the 2014 election.
Libs - 32%, Down 7%
PCs - 39%, Up 8%
NDP - 21%, Down 3%
Progressive Conservatives lead Liberals in Ontario
http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/240/progressive-conservatives-lead-li...
Sun, 2015-03-01 22:58
#20
the election is 4 years away. Next election will be fought on Stop Patrick
I thought what was going on in the Sudbury by-election might be the beginning of the end for the Wynne Liberals, and I still do, as the PCs, even without a Leader, have now gained 15% on the Liberals since the 2014 election.
Libs - 32%, Down 7%
PCs - 39%, Up 8%
NDP - 21%, Down 3%
Progressive Conservatives lead Liberals in Ontario
http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/240/progressive-conservatives-lead-li...
Mon, 2015-03-30 12:55
#21
Ontario Liberals losing votes to NDP, PCs in the lead: poll
PCs - 34%
NDP - 27%
Libs - 29%
Seat Projections:
PCs - 52 seats [3 short of majority)
NDP - 32 seats (Official Opposition)
Libs - 23 seats (third party status)
http://globalnews.ca/news/1910948/ontario-liberals-losing-votes-to-ndp-p...
Mon, 2015-03-30 15:23
#22
Sudbury scandal hurting Liberals: Poll
http://www.thesudburystar.com/2015/03/30/sudbury-scandal-hurting-liberal...
Mon, 2015-03-30 17:24
#23
I meant to post this here:
Normally the Toronto Star trumpets pro-Liberal Forum Research polling on its front page, notwithstanding Forum's dismal reputation as the least accurate pollster in Canada.
I looked in vain for some mention in the Star today of the party standings poll reflecting a Liberal slide. All I found was this:
http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2015/03/30/ontario-poll-shows-hug...
Perhaps the Star has finally responded to criticisms that Forum is a junk pollster which always inflates Liberal numbers and for that reason refused to run it.
Mon, 2015-03-30 18:30
#24
Hahahahaha and a final haha. Polls like this were produced days before the Ontario election. We have a majority, and Patrick brown is becoming the PC leader. Plus, the sample size for forum poll was approx 800. But whatever makes the NDP happy.
Mon, 2015-03-30 21:59
#25
Y'know, ajay, with you around I feel like I never have to slag the Liberals. Your comments are so nasty and trollish you do all the work for me. So thanks for that.
Mon, 2015-03-30 22:38
#26
Y'know, ajay, with you around I feel like I never have to slag the Liberals. Your comments are so nasty and trollish you do all the work for me. So thanks for that.
You welcome and my comments are based on a combination of fact and reality.
Tue, 2015-03-31 00:00
#27
You combine fact with reality?
Some facts aren't "real"?
Reality is sometimes unfactual?
I get it, a Liberal reality where it is possible that facts and reality don't accord. Reality being that the Liberals are the "natural party of power", except for the facts of the last ten years of Conservative governance.
Stephen Harper is working on being the logest serving Prime Minister in Canada. Fact!
Wed, 2015-04-01 10:10
#28
montrealer58
I would hope that any Liberal would be able to pounce on what is to be the Ontario PC Party.
Wed, 2015-04-01 23:27
#29
You combine fact with reality?
Some facts aren't "real"?
Reality is sometimes unfactual?
I get it, a Liberal reality where it is possible that facts and reality don't accord. Reality being that the Liberals are the "natural party of power", except for the facts of the last ten years of Conservative governance.
Stephen Harper is working on being the logest serving Prime Minister in Canada. Fact!
Fact:NDP/ccf hasn't been in power for over 80 years
Fact: lpc is the only party that has existed since 1867!
Thu, 2015-04-02 07:57
#30
AJ was the NDP actually in power before 1935?
Thu, 2015-04-02 11:33
#31
Hahahahaha and a final haha. Polls like this were produced days before the Ontario election.
Actually the polls by Forum during the Ontario election campaign consistently underestimated NDP and their final poll had the NDP under 20% and the NDP actually got 24%. The only time the Ontario NDP ever led in any poll in Ontario was in the fall of 2012 immediately after McGuinty quit in disgrace and proprogued for six months...
Fri, 2015-04-03 13:55
#32
AJ was the NDP actually in power before 1935?
I am too young to remember, but I bet ndp had satellite offices in lower canada in the 1700's .
Sat, 2015-04-04 15:22
#33
Oh ajay. The voice of reason as always. Please tell us more. I prefer your imaginary Canadian history to your imaginary Canadian politics.