Federal election - 2015 (Ontario)

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NorthReport

1,400 apparently.

Biggest in-between-election NDP rally ever according to Chantal Hebert.

Not too shabby! Smile

http://www.citynews.ca/2015/03/16/mulcair-says-he-would-siphon-money-fro...

terrytowel

Bill Blair knocks off Dan Harris in Scarborough Southwest if he runs as a Liberal

Harris tied for second with generic Conservative candidate

In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll among 557 voters in the federal riding of Scarborough Southwest, almost 4-in-10 will vote for Bill Blair, Toronto’s soon-to-be-former police chief, if he runs as a Liberal in a federal election held today (39%), while about 3-in-10 would vote for the incumbent, NDP MP Dan Harris (29%) or for a Conservative candidate (past candidate Gavan Paranchothy's name was used - 27%).

Despite this, Harris has higher approvals Four-in-ten voters approve of incumbent Dan Harris (39%), and his net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is a healthy +18. Despite his lead in voter preference, however, Bill Blair has the approval of 3-in-10 (29%) and a net of +6. Blair’s approval is high among the young and those in lower income groups. Harris’s approval is common to slightly older groups and those slightly wealthier.

"Bill Blair is playing his cards very close to his chest, but we know from previous polling he’s popular in Scarborough and among Liberals, and Scarborough Southwest was a Liberal riding until the last election. Even then, the margin of victory was less than 2000 votes. He’ll be a star candidate for any party which woos him, but at this point his best fit is as a Liberal," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Read more at: http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/236/harris-tied-for-second-with-generic-conservative-candidate/
Copyright ©Forum Research Inc.

ctrl190

terrytowel wrote:

Bill Blair knocks off Dan Harris in Scarborough Southwest if he runs as a Liberal

I don't think that's a surprise. The Star reports the Liberals are trying to find a star candidate in Davenport to run against Andrew Cash who won by a wopping 10,000 in 2011. But Harris is much more vulnerable. I also heard through a few circles that the Liberals have approached high profile Toronto chief planner Jennifer Keesmaat to run. 

NorthReport

In conversation with Thomas Mulcair

Leader of the opposition discusses post-secondary education, Bill C-51, sexual violence on campus

In conversation with Thomas Mulcair

http://thevarsity.ca/2015/03/23/in-conversation-with-thomas-mulcair/

josh

My seat prediction at this point:

2011

Cons  73

NDP   22

Libs   11

 

2015

Cons  66

Libs   37

NDP  18

 

 

ajaykumar

FUN fact: NDP's mayoral candidate won parkdale high park, davenport, and trinity spadina. So thats a whole 3 seats right there! #orangewaveisback #trudeauistoast #ndpsweepsparkdale 

Sean in Ottawa

ajaykumar wrote:

FUN fact: NDP's mayoral candidate won parkdale high park, davenport, and trinity spadina. So thats a whole 3 seats right there! #orangewaveisback #trudeauistoast #ndpsweepsparkdale 

The sarcasm is boring

adma

Actually (and as I've stated before) Chow did *not* win P-HP--Tory-leaning Ward 13 cancelled out Chow-leaning Ward 14...

Jacob Two-Two

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

ajaykumar wrote:

FUN fact: NDP's mayoral candidate won parkdale high park, davenport, and trinity spadina. So thats a whole 3 seats right there! #orangewaveisback #trudeauistoast #ndpsweepsparkdale 

The sarcasm is boring

True. He was more entertaining when he was honestly speaking his illegible mind. But it is kind of funny how he only started making sense when he started attempting sarcasm. His mockery sounds more rational than his actual opinions.

Rokossovsky

Actually it would be 4 seats, because Trinity-Spadina is to be divided into two ridings. :)

Rokossovsky

We will take those and Toronto Center. So that is five.

josh

ctrl190 wrote:

 

The Grits picked the former head of right-wing C.D. Howe Institute Bill Morneau to run in some of the most economically marginalized neighbourhoods in the city. Now that the northern Rosedale half of the riding has been re-distributed, McQuaig's message of combating income equality can truly resonate. 

 

McQuaig versus the former head of the C.D. Howe Institute?  Could there be a clearer choice?

Rokossovsky

Yes. Tis a wonderful thing.

adma

Rokossovsky wrote:

Actually it would be 4 seats, because Trinity-Spadina is to be divided into two ridings. :)

 

Though let's wait for the poll transpositions, okay?  Remember that the mere presence of Rosedale could be enough to cancel out any Chow advantage in University-Rosedale...

NorthReport
Northern PoV

NorthReport wrote:

MP responds to Trudeau coverage

http://www.insidehalton.com/opinion-story/5575905-mp-responds-to-trudeau...

This "MP" has your full CONfidence eh?

"Young was acclaimed as the Conservative candidate in Oakville riding"

So promoting the Harper talking points passes for good NDP strategy?

NorthReport

As I keep saying Liberals are much closer to the Tories than the NDP and this is the reason even if the NDP gets the most number of seats the NDP will need a majority to govern as the Liberals will support the Tories over the NDP.

Former Liberal MP Andrew Kania In Talks To Run For Tories In Brampton West

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/05/22/andrew-kania-brampton-election-c...

NorthReport

Bye, bye!

Don't let the barn door hit you on your way out!

Maybe the OFL needs to start supporting working people's political parties, eh!

Bills pile up for Ontario Federation of LabourOFL President Sid “Ryan has two choices. Mend his ways or resign,” says OPSEU president Warren (Smokey) Thomas.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/05/22/bills-pile-up-for-ontario-...

Sean in Ottawa

NorthReport wrote:

As I keep saying Liberals are much closer to the Tories than the NDP and this is the reason even if the NDP gets the most number of seats the NDP will need a majority to govern as the Liberals will support the Tories over the NDP.

Former Liberal MP Andrew Kania In Talks To Run For Tories In Brampton West

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/05/22/andrew-kania-brampton-election-c...

I disagree-- this could also be a sign that this Conservative Liberal knows that the Liberals cannot support Harper and will have to deal with the NDP.

There is no political space in the universe for the Liberals to back Harper after the election. The closest thing they could do would be to bring in policies that look like Harper's if they had the seats but if it is a straight up choice between the NDP and Conservatives, the Liberals have to work with the NDP -- and that does not matter if they are placed first, second or third. The only way the Liberals don't have to work with the NDP is if they win a majority (which I doubt will happen).

The alternative would be a split in their caucus and a split in their support ending the Liberal party as a political force in Canada at the federal level. No, they are not that stupid.

Unionist

NorthReport wrote:

Bye, bye!

Don't let the barn door hit you on your way out!

Maybe the OFL needs to start supporting working people's political parties, eh!

Bills pile up for Ontario Federation of LabourOFL President Sid “Ryan has two choices. Mend his ways or resign,” says OPSEU president Warren (Smokey) Thomas.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/05/22/bills-pile-up-for-ontario-...

Pathetic.

Oh, is Smokey still secretly negotiating with Wynne to buy the LCBO? Or has he mended his ways?

Sid Ryan is more courageous and progressive than the Smokeys and Horwaths of this world could ever dream to be. And he has come under far more vicious attack than these abject cowards are capable of mustering.

 

Brachina

 I'm sure your old buddy Premier "the privatizer" Wynne would agree with you Unionist.

Unionist

Brachina wrote:

 I'm sure your old buddy Premier "the privatizer" Wynne would agree with you Unionist.

The difference between "pathetic" and principle, is that principle means you condemn the neoliberals like Wynne when they betray the interests of the people, and you mobilize to defeat their attempts. "Pathetic" means you check out the party label first, then praise or condemn accordingly.

I'm very comfortable with not owning a cheerleader outfit of any team.

 

adma

NorthReport wrote:

Former Liberal MP Andrew Kania In Talks To Run For Tories In Brampton West

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/05/22/andrew-kania-brampton-election-c...

it wouldn't be the first time a defeated Brampton Liberal parliamentarian later tried his luck as a Conservative--gee, as you can tell by the article. what illustrious company ;-)

http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2015/05/17/law-society-suspension-adds-to-brampton-ex-mpps-troubles.html

NorthReport

The Ryan fiasco is just shades of the earlier Hargrove fiasco.

How stupid can you be!

Orangutan

I am hearing rumours that Jim Cuddy from Blue Rodeo is running for the NDP in Don Valley East.  

scott16

Orangutan wrote:

I am hearing rumours that Jim Cuddy from Blue Rodeo is running for the NDP in Don Valley East.  

where did you hear this?

FYI it's been discussed on these boards.

David Young

Orangutan wrote:

I am hearing rumours that Jim Cuddy from Blue Rodeo is running for the NDP in Don Valley East.  

Don't you mean that it's rumoured that he's thinking about contesting the nomination meeting in Don Valley East?

 

NorthReport

Voters leaning Tory, NDP 

Thomas Mulcair and Stephen Harper would be pleased. Justin Trudeau? Not so much.

The Star asked its readers who they would vote for, were a federal election to be held today.

Online, orange and blue duked it out for supremacy on Greater Sudbury streets. The Conservatives and New Democrats were neck-and-neck, with 29% (222 votes) and 28% (209 votes) of the local vote, respectively. Trudeau's Liberals scored 20% (149 votes) of the vote, while 10% indicated they would give the nod to Elizabeth May's Green Party of Canada.

Just 10 voters would seek out an independent or "other" candidate, while six percent of Sudburians (46 votes) remained undecided.

The Star also received 22 calls responding to this week's poll question.

Half of those who called -- 11 in total -- supported Team Harper.

"It'll be Conservative, for sure. It seems Ontario has gone to financial hell in that proverbial handbasket with all the other choices," one man said.

He had plenty of caller company.

"There is only one government that is pro-Canadian, and that is the Conservative government," another gentleman said.

But one man wondered how the prime minister can claim we live in a democracy and said he would definitely not cast a ballot for blue.

"I know who I'm not voting for. I'm not voting Conservative as long as Harper's (there), along with his henchmen," he said. "He's anti-Canadian."

Only three callers indicated they would vote for the Liberal party.


http://www.thesudburystar.com/2015/05/24/voters-leaning-tory-ndp

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

Voters leaning Tory, NDP 

Thomas Mulcair and Stephen Harper would be pleased. Justin Trudeau? Not so much.

The Star asked its readers who they would vote for, were a federal election to be held today.

Online, orange and blue duked it out for supremacy on Greater Sudbury streets. The Conservatives and New Democrats were neck-and-neck, with 29% (222 votes) and 28% (209 votes) of the local vote, respectively. Trudeau's Liberals scored 20% (149 votes) of the vote, while 10% indicated they would give the nod to Elizabeth May's Green Party of Canada.

Just 10 voters would seek out an independent or "other" candidate, while six percent of Sudburians (46 votes) remained undecided.

The Star also received 22 calls responding to this week's poll question.

Half of those who called -- 11 in total -- supported Team Harper.

"It'll be Conservative, for sure. It seems Ontario has gone to financial hell in that proverbial handbasket with all the other choices," one man said.

He had plenty of caller company.

"There is only one government that is pro-Canadian, and that is the Conservative government," another gentleman said.

But one man wondered how the prime minister can claim we live in a democracy and said he would definitely not cast a ballot for blue.

"I know who I'm not voting for. I'm not voting Conservative as long as Harper's (there), along with his henchmen," he said. "He's anti-Canadian."

Only three callers indicated they would vote for the Liberal party.


http://www.thesudburystar.com/2015/05/24/voters-leaning-tory-ndp

If that "poll" was correct it would be the best Conservative showing since 1984

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudbury_(electoral_district)

terrytowel

In Ontario’s northwest corner: Incumbent resources minister Greg Rickford vs frmr Ont NDP leader Howard Hampton vs Chretien-era cab min Bob Nault

Howard has this in a walk.

 

David Young

terrytowel wrote:

In Ontario’s northwest corner: Incumbent resources minister Greg Rickford vs frmr Ont NDP leader Howard Hampton vs Chretien-era cab min Bob Nault

Howard has this in a walk.

Agreed!

There's a growing list of Conservative-held ridings that the NDP has a good, if not great, chance of winning in October:

Essex, Oshawa, Brantford-Brant, Brampton North, London West, Kitchener South-Hespeler, Sault Ste. Marie, and now Kenora.

 

 

Debater

I wouldn't be surprised if Julian Fantino calls it quits in Vaughan-Woodbridge.

It is now June and Fantino still hasn't been nominated for the Conservatives.  If he was certain about running again, he would have been nominated by now.  He must be mulling over his options.

It's possible that he plans to quietly retire when Parliament rises so that the public doesn't see too many CPC ministers going out the door at the same time.

The Vaughan Citizen reported last week that Fantino has not responded to their repeated questions about why no nomination meeting has been held yet.

Meanwhile, they report that Francesco Sorbara, a relative of former MPP Greg Sorbara, will be acclaimed as the Liberal candidate on June 4.

http://www.yorkregion.com/news-story/5645002-will-this-year-s-federal-ra...

(The NDP candidate, Adriana Zichy, was nominated back in March).

http://www.punditsguide.ca/riding.php?rid=2057#tabNoms

NorthReport

You are doing one hell of a job Pierre! Frown

I gather you will be not be doing the honourable thing and stepping down. 

Poilievre aide broke conflict of interest rules: ethics commissioner

A senior adviser to Employment and Social Development Canada Minister Pierre Poilievre has been sanctioned by the ethics commissioner for accepting a gift from a lobby group that dealt with his department.

George Rae, now director of policy in Poilievre’s office, was found by Ethics Commissioner Mary Dawson to have breached the Conflict of Interest Act by taking a ticket to a gala from the Forest Products Association of Canada (FPAC) in 2013. At the time, Rae worked for then-minister Jason Kenney, who is now minister of Defence.

Rae accepted an invitation from the group to attend a $125-per-plate alumni dinner of the Parliamentary Internship Programme that honoured former Progressive Conservative prime minister Kim Campbell, the same event cited by Dawson in a February report finding a violation of the conflict law by another Kenney aide, Michael Bonner.

Dawson wrote that the forestry group had lobbied Bonner, “particularly in areas related to Mr. Bonner’s responsibilities as a senior policy advisor.”

 


http://www.canada.com/News/canada/Poilievre+aide+broke+conflict+interest...

NorthReport

Gas plant scandal Greg? 

NorthReport

I’m starting to feel better about the Toronto-Danforth thing  Smile

http://warrenkinsella.com/2015/06/im-starting-to-feel-better-about-the-t...

NorthReport

Socialist barbarians at the gate of Fortress Liberal 

http://warrenkinsella.com/2015/07/socialist-barbarians-at-the-gate-of-fo...

bekayne

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/the-nepean-contest-wasnt-abo...

If you like Pierre Poilievre, the bare-knuckles brawler of a Conservative cabinet minister, smile because you might have a two-fer in the next Parliament.

Last weekend, a young man with a wafer-thin résumé but great devotion to Mr. Poilievre won the Conservative nomination for the Ottawa riding of Nepean.

 

adma

I always felt Nepean was more vulnerable than a lot of pundits gave it credit for.

Boy, compared to the NDP's young McGillers, these Poilievre plants seem like glassy-eyed droids, barely of this planet...

Brachina

 Maybe its Pollievre plot to make sure he's the next leader after Harper.

terrytowel

Election Predictor is predicting that the NDP will hang on to all their Downtown seats. The other Downtown seats they are going after is still too close to call.

http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/p_35on.php

 

ctrl190

Outside of the downtown seats, are there any other potential pick ups in the 416? Scarborough Centre was a three-way race in 2011 with the Cons squeeking out a win.

David Young

terrytowel wrote:

Election Predictor is predicting that the NDP will hang on to all their Downtown seats. The other Downtown seats they are going after is still too close to call.

http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/p_35on.php

 

Almost all...York South-Weston is still undecided; although if Liberal support continues to fall, that one will stay NDP this time.

The other possible NDP pick-ups would be Scarborough Centre, Scarborough-Rouge Park, Don Valley East, Humber River-Black Creek, Toronto Centre, University-Rosedale, and Spadina-Fort York.

Elsewhere in Ontario, I can see the NDP has the potential to win in Brampton East, Brampton North, Oshawa, Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas, Ottawa-Vanier, Peterborough-Kawartha, Essex, Kitchener South-Hespeler, London West, Waterloo, Brantford-Brant, Kenora, Sault Ste. Marie, Sudbury, and Thunder Bay-Superior North.

 

 

NorthReport

Mulcair isn’t pandering for Quebec votes

Making the case for Canada has been the NDP's focus leading up to and since its breakthrough in the province. In fact, the single biggest setback to Quebec sovereignty came on May 2, 2011 when all but four Bloc Québécois MPs (including Gilles Duceppe) lost their seats to New Democrats.

Local residents may recall that the Liberals first tried this line of attack against the NDP during the 2012 Kitchener-Waterloo byelection. At that time, a backbencher by the name of Justin Trudeau robocalled voters on the eve of the vote to tell them that electing Catherine Fife as their MPP would lead to a breakup of the country.

How'd that argument work out for you, Justin?

http://www.therecord.com/opinion-story/5739386-mulcair-isn-t-pandering-f...

 

NorthReport
NorthReport

Thomas Mulcair seeks to ease fears on NDP referendum position

The NDP leader is on an eight-day pre-election tour through Ontario.

Mulcair also boasted of his federalist bona fides, having helped the No campaign when he was a provincial public servant, and then MNA, in Quebec City.

“I am the only leader in this campaign who can boast to have fought tooth and nail to keep Quebec in Canada,” Mulcair said.

“I did that in both the 1980 and 1995 referendum and I take a back seat to no one when it comes to defending this extraordinary country of ours,” Mulcair said.

The position has been party policy for a decade and was a big part of successful NDP efforts to lure soft nationalist voters away from the Bloc Québécois during the 2011 election campaign, but it is coming under greater scrutiny in recent weeks as polls place the party within reach of winning the Oct. 19 federal election.

Some of that criticism has come from the Liberals, including party leader Justin Trudeau, who told The Canadian Press that Mulcair was engaging in “just the worst kind of politics.”

Mulcair, meanwhile, said the Liberals are the ones playing politics.

“I will let the Liberals try to restart the quarrels of the past because they think that is going to help them. We are going to take an optimistic, positive approach to what we can accomplish together. Quebecers are reacting very well to that right now,” Mulcair said.

 

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/07/20/thomas-mulcair-seeks-to-ea...

NorthReport

NDP, Tom Mulcair swing into campaign mode in Toronto

“There’s no question that the Conservatives are trying a very old strategy to buy people’s votes with their own money,” Mulcair said.

http://metronews.ca/news/toronto/1432887/ndp-tom-mulcair-swing-into-camp...

NorthReport

Could the NDP possibly win this seat?

Ten reasons why E-L Liberals shouldn’t vote for Eve Adams

http://warrenkinsella.com/2015/07/ten-reasons-why-e-l-liberals-shouldnt-...

NorthReport

Tory meets with NDP MPs, says he is confident party would fund SmartTrack

http://www.cp24.com/news/tory-meets-with-ndp-mps-says-he-is-confident-pa...

NorthReport
NorthReport

Olivia Chow announces bid to re-enter federal politics

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/olivia-chow-announces-bid-to-re-enter-fed...

 

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