Here are my seat predictions based on current polling, riding histories and local factors:
Alberta NDP Seat Predictions?
Sat, 2015-04-11 20:28
#1
Alberta NDP Seat Predictions?
Sat, 2015-04-11 21:11
#2
The upswing in NDP support provincially bodes well for the fortunes of the federal party, and indicates a volitile electorate looking for real change country wide.
Pretty interesting.
Sat, 2015-04-11 21:13
#3
Northern Alberta
Outside of Edmonton, Calgary and Lethbridge, Northern Alberta offers some of the best opportunities for the Alberta NDP to pick up one or more rural seats.
Here are the seats possibly in play:
Athabasca-Sturgeon-Redwater - ThreeHundredEight is predicting this seat just outside Edmonton will go to the NDP. The NDP did win a couple rural seats outside of Edmonton in the 1986 and 1989 elections, including part of this riding in 1986.
Dunvegan-Central Peace-Notley - Grant Notley's old riding. No incumbent. Nostalgia and family history in the riding could be a factor.
Fort McMurray-Conklin - With a PC incumbent and the Wildrose leader also running, could the popular NDP candidate come through the middle? It is a long shot, but heres hoping. Fort McMurray increasingly attracts people from all other parts of the country and world, so there is a chance they could buck wider provincial trends.
Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo - Scandal plagued PC incumbent. See comments above.
Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills - No incumbent. NDP did win part of this riding in 1986.
Sat, 2015-04-11 21:26
#4
CENTRAL ALBERTA:
Red Deer-North - ? - No incumbent. Wildrose candidate lost the PC nomination. If we have a chance in Red Deer South, maybe we have a shot here as well.
Red Deer-South - ? - No incumbent. For some reason ThreeHundredEight is predicting this seat going to the NDP.
Stony Plain - ? - Rural Edmonton riding. NDP previously won the seat in 1989.
West Yellowhead - ? - NDP's best chance to gain a seat in rural Central Alberta. Previously won by the NDP in 1989. We've ran some some good campaigns here both provincially and federally. Won 21% of the vote in the 2004 election.
Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville - ? - Alberta NDP won Vegreville in both 1986 and 1989.
Sat, 2015-04-11 21:43
#5
CALGARY:
The Alberta NDP has held seats in Calgary before (Calgary Forestlawn aka Calgary East, and Calgary Mountainview). Interesting fact, a former Ontario NDP MPP is running for the Liberals in Calgary Currie.
Calgary Buffalo - NDP GAIN - Seat of the former Alberta Liberal leader Kent Hehr. No incumbent. Riding that votes more Liberal than PC in Alberta.
Calgary East - NDP GAIN- Won by the NDP in 1986 and 1989. PC incumbent Moe Amery was elected in 1993. Time to turf him out momentum?
Calgary-Fort - NDP GAIN - Long-time former City Councillor Joe Ceci is running for the NDP. No incumbent.
Calgary-Klein - NDP GAIN - ThreeHundredEight is predicting the NDP will win this riding. PC incumbent.
Calgary Mountainview - ? - Won by the NDP in 1986 and 1989. Seat of the Liberal Leader (2008-2011, 2015-) Long shot.
Calgary-Varsity - NDP GAIN - No incumbent. There is a prediction for the NDP to win this riding in this article: http://www.cbc.ca/news/elections/alberta-votes/ndp-looks-to-joe-ceci-for...
Sat, 2015-04-11 21:47
#6
SOUTHERN ALBERTA:
Lethbridge-East - NDP GAIN - No incumbent. Former seat of former Liberal turned PC MLA Bridget Pastoor (who started in a 2003 CBC political reality show segement called Political Animal).
Lethbridge-West - NDP GAIN - 29% in the 2012 election. Same NDP candidate.
Sat, 2015-04-11 23:49
#7
The upswing in NDP support provincially bodes well for the fortunes of the federal party, and indicates a volitile electorate looking for real change country wide.Pretty interesting.
The Conservatives having to spend cash raised from Western Canada to hang onto their seats rather than being able to ship all their Western Canada bucks to other parts of the country will have amazing impacts on the federal political scene.
Sun, 2015-04-12 00:15
#8
CENTRAL ALBERTA:
Red Deer-North - ? - No incumbent. Wildrose candidate lost the PC nomination. If we have a chance in Red Deer South, maybe we have a shot here as well.
Red Deer-South - ? - No incumbent. For some reason ThreeHundredEight is predicting this seat going to the NDP.
308 also has the Liberals winning Red Deer North. Clearly a goof on the Red Deer numbers.
Sun, 2015-04-12 00:18
#9
Fort McMurray-Conklin - With a PC incumbent and the Wildrose leader also running, could the popular NDP candidate come through the middle? It is a long shot, but heres hoping. Fort McMurray increasingly attracts people from all other parts of the country and world, so there is a chance they could buck wider provincial trends.
Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo - Scandal plagued PC incumbent. See comments above.
There will be a lot of sympathy in his home riding for the Wildrose leader due to the recent death of his son, he'll crush the PCs. The PC john in Wood Buffalo will also be crushed by Wildrose.
Sun, 2015-04-12 00:32
#10
Calgary Mountainview - ? - Won by the NDP in 1986 and 1989. Seat of the Liberal Leader (2008-2011, 2015-) Long shot.
Against Jim Prentice
Thu, 2021-10-07 19:56
#11
.
Thu, 2021-10-07 19:57
#12
.
Sun, 2015-04-12 07:52
#13
That's correct. The nickname was attached after the NDP won 12 seats in the Edmonton area in '86. The Liberals only won two.
Sun, 2015-04-12 07:57
#14
QUOTE:[b]I always took the "Redmonton" quip to be a reference to the city's relative left-wingishness, not support for the Liberals. Red as in socialist. Anyways, here is this Edmontonian's take.[/b]NEXT...
Sun, 2015-04-12 10:20
#15
PC 47
NDP 20
WR 14
LIB 6
... drawn out of thin air ....
Sun, 2015-04-12 10:28
#16
Fyi, in the analysis above there are a lot of references ridings with "no wild rose candidate to split the vote" well Wildrose has been picking candidates like crazy and as of yesterday had candidates in all but 10 ridings out of 87... Parties have until this Friday to get candidates on the ballot and I'm quite certain Wildrose will field a full slate...the fact that 5 polls in a row have them in first place across Alberta will mean no shortage of people wanting to jump on that bandwagon...the Liberals are a different story. They are still missing 50 candidates with only 5 days to go and they are in total disarray...it's quite likely they will run less than a full slate of candidates.
Sun, 2015-04-12 10:36
#17
There is zero chance of the Alberta getting more than two seats (if that) they are on life support with no money, an interim leader and incumbents quitting in three out of the five ridings they currently hold.
You mean "the Alberta Liberal Party", I assume.
Sun, 2015-04-12 10:41
#18
There is zero chance of the Alberta Liberals getting more than two seats (if that) they are on life support with no money, an interim leader and incumbents quitting in three out of the five ridings they currently hold.
Sun, 2015-04-12 10:42
#19
fixed
Sun, 2015-04-12 11:22
#20
There is zero chance of the Alberta Liberals getting more than two seats (if that) they are on life support with no money, an interim leader and incumbents quitting in three out of the five ridings they currently hold.
David Swann and Laurie Blakeman are likely the only two Liberals to remain standing (and even their survival is in doubt).
Sun, 2015-04-12 12:57
#21
There is zero chance of the Alberta Liberals getting more than two seats (if that) they are on life support with no money, an interim leader and incumbents quitting in three out of the five ridings they currently hold.
David Swann and Laurie Blakeman are likely the only two Liberals to remain standing (and even their survival is in doubt).
Yes, they have something like 150 000 to run their provincial campaign. Even their poll numbers aren't realistic. If they don't have candidates in the riidings how can Liberals even vote for their party?
Sun, 2015-04-12 18:29
#22
EDMONTON
Can we change the moniker of "Redmonton" to something orange? 12 seats seem certain. Possibly more.
Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview - NDP HOLD
Edmonton-Calder - NDP HOLD
Edmonton-Centre - ? ; Laurie Blakeman is a great MPP for the Alberta Liberals, though can she hold on in the heart of Edmonton with an NPD tidalwave in Edmonton?
Edmonton-Glenora - NDP GAIN ; NDP is running a local school trustee here. Won 25% of the vote here in the 2012 election.
Edmonton-Gold Bar - NDP GAIN ; 29% in the 2012 election and the same candidate running again.
Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood - NDP HOLD
Edmonton-Mill Creek - ? ; Suburban Edmonton seat. 10% in the 2012 election. PC incumbent is running. Possible NDP gain.
Edmonton-Mill Woods - NDP GAIN ; 14.5% in the 2012 election. Previous held by the NDP in 1986 and 1988.
Edmonton-Riverview - NDP GAIN ; 21% in the 2012 election (Liberals got 23% and PCs got 40%). Should pick up the Liberal vote.
Edmonton-Rutherford - NDP GAIN ; While we only receieved 9% in 2012, there is no PC incumbent and the field of candidates from the other parties is weak.
Edmonton-Strathcona - NDP HOLD
Edmonton-Castle Downs - ? ; PC incumbent, NDP previously held part of the riding in the 1980s. Possibly NDP gain.
Edmonton-Decore - NDP GAIN ; 20% in the 2012 election.
Edmonton-Ellerslie - NDP GAIN ; No incumbent, 16% in the 2012 election. Strong candidate Rod Loyola.
Edmonton-Manning - NDP GAIN ; No incumbent, 25% in the 2012 election.
Edmonton-McClung - ? ; PC incumbent in a riding that votes more Liberal than PC in Alberta (1993-2001, 2004-2008 Liberal). The Liberals don't even have a candidate here yet.
Edmonton-Meadowlark - ? ; Former seat of the past Alberta Liberal Raj Sherman. No incumbent. NDP previously held parts of this riding in the 1980s.
Edmonton-South West - ? ; Suburban Edmonton riding. PC incumbent. One of the hardest riding for the NDP to win in Edmonton.
Edmonton-Whitemud - ? ; NDP won 22% in a recent by-election. PC incumbent is the former Mayor of Edmonton.
Sherwood Park ? - Suburban Edmonton riding. PC incumbent. One of the hardest riding for the NDP to win in Edmonton.
St. Albert ? - PC incumbent, but the NDP previously held this riding in the 1980s. St. Albert's is more urban than other ridings in Suburban Edmonton.
Sun, 2015-04-12 18:32
#23
Prediction:
PC - 34
Wildrose - 27
NDP - 24
Liberal - 2
Mon, 2015-04-13 11:20
#24
With the NDP tied with Wild Rose (while I don't agree with they're politics they seriously have the coolest fucking name for a party in politics) in Calgary what would people start calling Calgary, redgary?
Thu, 2015-04-16 22:50
#25
The new NDP candidate in Medicine Hat is the former city commissioner. Looks like another competitive race.
Fri, 2015-04-17 08:18
#26
The new NDP candidate in Medicine Hat is the former city commissioner. Looks like another competitive race.
Almost sounds as if the looming credible-optionness of the party is raising the standard for last-minute emergency substitutions...
Sun, 2015-04-19 10:55
#27
WR - 36
PC - 24
NDP - 20
Libs - 6
http://blunt-objects.blogspot.ca/p/alberta-election-projection-2015.html
Mon, 2015-04-20 15:38
#28
With the NDP tied with Wild Rose (while I don't agree with they're politics they seriously have the coolest fucking name for a party in politics) in Calgary what would people start calling Calgary, redgary?
Calgarange?
Mon, 2015-04-20 15:38
#29
With the NDP tied with Wild Rose (while I don't agree with they're politics they seriously have the coolest fucking name for a party in politics) in Calgary what would people start calling Calgary, redgary?
Calgarange?
Mon, 2015-04-20 19:59
#30
Looks like the Liberals are in serious freefall to the point where it might be better to put them into the "other" category now.
If a certain "pollster" is to be believed, "Other" would then be at over 23%
Mon, 2015-04-20 20:11
#31
This is a seat projection thread and when you are discussing a party winning 2 or 3 seats why even bother? If being in Official Opposition means dick, then who could care less about these minor parties?
Mon, 2015-04-20 22:13
#32
This is a seat projection thread and when you are discussing a party winning 2 or 3 seats why even bother? If being in Official Opposition means dick, then who could care less about these minor parties?
FYI the NDP would have failed by that measure over the past quarter century, remember.
Tue, 2015-04-21 02:43
#33
Looks like the Liberals are in serious freefall to the point where it might be better to put them into the "other" category now.
Is there any safe seat for the Liberals now?
No, there isn't.
I'm guessing David Swann has enough personal popularity to hang on to his seat, particularly given the competitive vote split in Calgary, but I doubt Laurie Blakeman will be able to hang on in Edmonton Centre.
My prediction today:
1 Lib
1 AB Party
24 NDP {Athabasca-Sturgeon-Redwater, 2 in Lethbridge 3 in Calgary, 18 in dmonton)
26 PC (Mostly in Calgary, smattering of incumbents in central, northern AB and Edmonton)
35 WR (Sweep rural south, majority of rural north and central, rest in Calgary)
Do I think this will hold out? No.
Watch for the PCs to come back with a vengeance, Wildrose to fall back, NDP support to plateau. I still think the most likely outcome is a PC majority with a strong NDP Opposition. But, who knows? This is a truly strange election by AB standards.
Tue, 2015-04-21 09:38
#34
Tue, 2015-04-21 11:02
#35
46 NDP
10 PC
31 Wildrose
0 Liberals
0 Alberta Party
Tue, 2015-04-21 14:54
#36
Misfit
Not to be a pessimist, but what if the PCs and NDP split the vote and the WR came up the middle with a huge majority? We're talking about Alberta BTW.
Tue, 2015-04-21 18:46
#37
Tue, 2015-04-21 20:14
#38
308:
WR 41
NDP 34
PC 10
Lib 2
In every single seat the NDP wins outside of Edmonton, Grenier has the Wildrose vote falling. Is that credible?
Tue, 2015-04-21 20:53
#39
Just to be clear, Misfit - Wildrose does not "come up the middle" between the PCs and NDP, - it "outflanks" the PCs.
Wed, 2015-04-22 00:25
#40
Not to be a pessimist, but what if the PCs and NDP split the vote and the WR came up the middle with a huge majority? We're talking about Alberta BTW.
The NDP is currently polling too far ahead in Edmonton and Notley is too popular there for the NDP not to pick up a large number of seats. And in the (unlikely) event of a massive Wildrose majority, the NDP would almost certainly form the Official Opposition, which gives the NDP the right of the first response to the government, and they can use that in a forceful way to highlight the mis-steps the Wildrose makes. I think about what happened in Manitoba, where Gary Filmon was just as right-wing as anyone else. As that government faced an NDP opposition, not only was the NDP able to make Filmon wear his mis-steps, but the NDP made some progress towards reversing the damage Filmon did.
Wed, 2015-04-22 08:18
#41
I think about what happened in Manitoba, where Gary Filmon was just as right-wing as anyone else.
I thought that the Filmon Tories were considered moderate as such things go, i.e. distinctly in the "PC" camp, rather than in the "Wildrose/Reform" camp...
Wed, 2015-04-22 09:37
#42
Looks like the Liberals are in serious freefall to the point where it might be better to put them into the "other" category now.
Are there any safe seats for the Liberals now?
Thu, 2015-04-23 23:06
#43
While an NDP government in Alberta might be sweet, having four years of Wildrose might sour Albertans, esp. younger ones, on failed the failed right-wing policies. An NDP in Official Opposition might bode well for them to become the next government.
I think the NDP is poised to make major break throughs in Calgary, Lethbridge, Northern and Central Alberta. The conditions of this election are similar to those of the 1990 Ontario election. In a three way spilt, the NDP might come up the middle in many races.
Fri, 2015-04-24 02:42
#44
Fri, 2015-04-24 03:27
#45
This looks like a perfect storm for the NDP. I am normally cautious but I would say at this point it looks to me like the NDP is more likely to win.
Part of the reason I think this is the positions of the parties. You can expect last minute shifts to stop a party but in this case they are unlikely to amount to much. This is not a simple case of the NDP challenging the PCs in the Polls -- in that case we could see a swing to block the NDP from those on the right. Instead what we see is Wild Rose and the NDP facing off. Some PCs may opt to support the WR to stop the NDP but they may well be offset by other PC supporters moving to the NDP to stop WR. The PC party sitting in third makes them an unlikely candidate for a move to stop either the NDP or WR. The polling is so confusing at the moment there is not much likelihood of any backlash taking hold.
The most popular leader and winner of the debate was Notley. The vote against her is confused, demoralized and fragmented. This is what one could call the perfect winning conditions for the NDP.
Interestingly, a poll looked at how people thought their neighbours were intending to vote vs their own intentions. More were intending to vote NDP but thought their neighbours were not.
A swing away from the NDP is possible but there is no evidence of one yet. In fact it still looks like there is more support for the NDP than a realization that they actually could win.
The NDP has a real opportunity here and might win.
Fri, 2015-04-24 14:23
#46
Given the NDP will rack up huge majorities in Edmonton, they would need favourable vote splits to win many seats elsewhere. Some were suggesting that they had plateaued, but the Forum poll suggests that isn't so and that they are still surging. I think the Conservative's internal polling shows the same as the Forum poll which is why Prentice was ignoring Swann and Jean. I agree that the opportunity is there and a win is possible. Polling in the mid-twenties outside of the major cities may result in some unexpected wins that could put Rachel into a majority, rather than a plurality or strong second. I don't think the Conservative rump would support an NDP minority and it is even less likely the Wild Rose would. The Liberals and other parties are unlikely to pick up more than one or two seats.
Fri, 2015-04-24 15:50
#47
http://www.threehundredeight.com is updated, projecting an NDP minority with 38 seats.
Fri, 2015-04-24 15:58
#48
A blast from the past...
Alberta's election polls miss the mark (post 2012 Alberta election headline on CBC)
polls are for dogs
Fri, 2015-04-24 16:32
#49
NDP - 38 seats
Wildrose - 34 seats
PC - 12 seats
Lib - 3 seats
http://www.threehundredeight.com/p/alberta.html
Fri, 2015-04-24 17:09
#50
The poilsters are clearly having a problem with Calgary.
6 new riding polls
http://www.cbc.ca/news/elections/alberta-votes/alberta-election-6-riding...
Fri, 2015-04-24 17:39
#51
My fearless prediction:
NDP 42
PC 23
WR 20
LIB 01
AP 01